Octopus Energy Saving Sessions

[Stranger Dings]

Does anyone know how the Octopus ”Power Hour” energy saving sessions are actually calculated?

I’ve taken part in all of them, but the results just seem totally random.

I’ve had sessions where we’ve switched off as much as we can and gone out, only to be told that we didn’t manage to save anything.

Some sessions, we’ve made very small savings, Including one where virtually everything was switched off and the whole family was in another country.

One session I forgot it was happening despite signing up, only to be told I’d managed to save 93% of my normal usage and be credited with over £16 off!

I’ll continue to sign up for them and don’t really do it expecting to save much as we are already quite energy efficient. It all just seems so random.

 

[PITA]

ESO posted that domestic DFS has been scrapped this upcoming winter. No test events (reserve the right with GAP though), pay-as-bid still and likely only evening peak ones. Can be revenue stacked with DNO flexibility balancing services, with proposal for penalty for under-delivery (reduced payments below 50%, nothing below 25%) and no extra payment (except for DFS guaranteeing contingency market requirement) for over-delivery (120%+). Reward per MWh, where varying, to be placed into discrete DFS Units. Still nothing for demand turn-up until future, also possibly call-off style dispatch later on. No day-ahead, only in-day.

Updated Winter 2023/24 report

Presentation about DFS commerical proposal

ESO
DFS
GAP
DNO
WTF
SOS

 

[Pink Duck]

Electricity Service Operator
Demand Flexibility Service
Guaranteed Acceptance Payment
District Network Operator
What The Fudge
Save Our Sausages

 

[WllXM]

ESO posted that domestic DFS has been scrapped this upcoming winter. No test events (reserve the right with GAP though), pay-as-bid still and likely only evening peak ones. Can be revenue stacked with DNO flexibility balancing services, with proposal for penalty for under-delivery (reduced payments below 50%, nothing below 25%) and no extra payment (except for DFS guaranteeing contingency market requirement) for over-delivery (120%+). Reward per MWh, where varying, to be placed into discrete DFS Units. Still nothing for demand turn-up until future, also possibly call-off style dispatch later on. No day-ahead, only in-day.

Updated Winter 2023/24 report

Presentation about DFS commerical proposal

you probably cost them too much ££ with your powerhouse solar exports
well it was fun while it lasted..

 

[Pink Duck]

Depending on how proposals go it may be that energy providers can continue with turn-down events. Should know by October. May be that the only Saving Sessions will be on those two or three live use occasions in December/January.

 

[Jason71]

Electricity Service Operator
Demand Flexibility Service
Guaranteed Acceptance Payment
District Network Operator
What The Fudge
Save Our Sausages

Actually SOS is not an abbreviation. The letters were just chosen because of the Morse code pattern they make. It does not stand for anything despite the popular myth of "Save our Souls".
Mind you If it did stand for anything it would have to be something German since they came up with it so maybe it could be "Save our Sausages" after all!

 

[thewishy]

The possibility of turn-up events are at least interesting (We've been paying Europe to take excess capacity over interconnects on a number of occasions because we need the demand to allow us to keep thermals running to keep inertia in the system). Regionalisation also kind of makes sense...

The continuous call-off dispatch options suit Tesla VPP type arrangements rather than the sort of style of service Octopus have offered (Hours of notice required really..)

If they're penalising excess reductions, I guess Octopus are going to have to limit sign-ups, which might be a problem if they're website typically dies...

 

[PITA]

you probably cost them too much ££ with your powerhouse solar exports
well it was fun while it lasted..

I even upgraded my export capability to 15 kW for this Winter...

Think I scared them off...

 

[thewishy]

Reading further through the docs (Page 30 of the report), I think they want to keep DFS as a weapon against generators/interconnects holding the ESO to ransom when they know margins are tight, this included the really hot summer a couple of years ago. That said they've also introduced regulatory changes for that too.

 

[Pink Duck]

The stacking of (government forced) Capacity Market and DFS together is an intended year-around way to avoid national energy shortages. This is why they have already applied for a European Balancing Regulations article 18. Also interesting is that they are promoting the T-4 variant of CM to encourage longer term participation, instead of the T-1 short term annual arrangements.

 

[Pink Duck]

Capacity Market events from GB Electricity Capacity Market Notices - National Grid

Mon 31st Oct 2016 16:30 (publish 12:06, cancelled 18:53)
Mon  7th Nov 2016 16:30 (publish 12:06, cancelled 15:07)
Tue 15th Sep 2020 17:30 (publish 13:04, cancelled 14:05)
Thu  3rd Dec 2020 16:00 (publish 11:34, cancelled 12:35)
Fri  8th Jan 2021 18:30 (publish 14:04, cancelled 14:35)
Fri  3rd Dec 2021 17:30 (publish 13:04, cancelled 13:06)
Mon 24th Jan 2022 18:00 (publish 13:34, cancelled 14:06)
Mon 18th Jul 2022 19:00 (publish 14:34, cancelled 15:05)
Mon 18th Jul 2022 20:00 (publish 15:34, cancelled 19:40)
Thu 11th Aug 2022 18:00 (publish 13:34, cancelled 17:30)
Tue 22nd Nov 2022 19:00 (publish 14:33, cancelled 15:05)
Mon 28th Nov 2022 18:00 (publish 13:33, cancelled 14:04)

Clue as to when they might happen up to a week in advance:

https://bmrs.elexon.co.uk/loss-of-load-probability-and-derated-margin

And yes, there hasn’t been any further since late 2022. The July and August ones are interesting.

 

[NewbieT]

There’s lots changing in this space at the moment. DFS’ competitors are growing.

The commercial Battery Energy Storage System operators have been struggling for revenue and capital last winter as interest rates remain high and energy prices dropped and so cancelled dividends. Changes are happening though. New “Balancing Reserve” system and allowing BESS longer durations. The industry is moving to stacking revenue streams (see page 2 here). LSE:GRID is augmenting batteries so that sites are mostly 2 hours. ESO / Ofgem definitely trying to create competition and a level playing field. Ratcliffe on Soar soon to get turned off will help BESS too.

Example three PLCs operating in GB:
740MW Gresham House
555MW Harmony
109MW Gore Street
Total 1.4GW now and projects this year bringing expected total 2GW by Christmas.

Octopus has done some hedging too: Tolling agreement with Octopus Energy - Gresham House

 

[PITA]

This news article... (is it true?)

National Grid to offer year-round cash for cutting power use...

The electricity system operator (ESO) has confirmed that the demand flexibility service (DFS) will reward UK households (SOS) with financial incentives (WTF) for reducing their electricity consumption at any time of the year

The scheme, previously winter-only, has now become permanent, promising significant earnings for participants.

National Grid to offer year-round cash for cutting power use - Energy Live News

The electricity system operator has confirmed that the demand flexibility service will reward UK households with financial incentives for reducing their electricity consumption at any time of the year

www.energylivenews.com

 

[thewishy]

This news article... (is it true?)

National Grid to offer year-round cash for cutting power use - Energy Live News

The electricity system operator has confirmed that the demand flexibility service will reward UK households with financial incentives for reducing their electricity consumption at any time of the year

www.energylivenews.com

I think this is one of those cases where there are different ways to look at it.

Pluses
- Moving to all year (we can also have difficulties in extreme weather, de-rated output from thermals (esp nuclear) vs air conditioning demands)
- Regional approach, so more surgical and therefore more cost effective
- Can pay to increase consumption as well as decrease (I like a bargain as much as anybody, but likely this will only save me 7.5p/kWh)

Minuses
- It's no longer an enhanced measure, just a commercial option for ESO. The level of payments we've been having are likely to be a distant memory
- It's less likely it'll be called on (No more trials, there were only two live events last year, and margins this year are better)

Octopus are definitely glass half full. They don't want negativity towards the scheme, which has had a lot of positivity and goodwill. But overall the next few years are unlikely to give us the same sort of returns.

Of course, markets go up, markets go down. Ratcliffe-on-soar will chucking out the last of it's half a billion tonnes of lifetime CO2 emissions in mere months. We've got Hartlepool and Heysham 1 with an accounting close date of 2026, Heysham 2 and Torness with 2028. Those dates are unlikely to be extended. Hinkey Point C isn't coming until 2029. So that's 2.4gw off the grid in 2026, another 2.4gw in 2028.

 

[Pink Duck]

That articles gives a misleading impression. While Octopus are all for rewarding demand lift during high renewables, ESO in their final page just admitted nothing is going to happen until scheme approval in October and in its first iteration there will be no reward/support for turn up. While year-around, the need for peak shifting is diminishing with the increase of renewables and battery grid-scale backup offerings. It literally felt like National Grid didn’t want to do the final 7 Saving Sessions.

 

[PITA]

So I'll cancel my 1000 MWh battery shipping container for this Winter then...