Overreaction: Is Elon planning on selling us out?

[robdavmil]

In the future Elon envisions that individuals will not own cars for their exclusive personal transportation

Everyone would simply be picked up and dropped off at their destination and the car would then scurry away to it's next hail.

Life would be much easier, more convenient and far less expensive. Few would want to really own their own car, if door to door service was available quickly and cheaply...

Sounds nice, but I think we already know this won’t happen. Oddly enough this view of the world has been available for decades...they’re called taxis. There’s no need to own a car, especially with the ease of Uber now. Making cars driverless is the exact same system, just without a human driver. I hope this isn’t his real plan. People obviously like their cars, and will pay good money to have it sit there 90% of the time. Not disagreeing that your view makes sense, but just hasn’t jived with reality...yet.

 

[jerseygirl18]

Tesla has a long history of leaving behind early adopters in favor of making progress. Always buy the car for what it will do today, not what it might do in the future. Odds are they won’t solve FSD to the robotaxi level for years, though, so your car will be supported for a long time.

I remember expecting Apple to have a TV network years ago...well, it's not here yet!!

 

[jerseygirl18]

I think it makes sense for a lot of folks outside of inner cities, any suburb or small city. So we’re probably looking at we’ll over half the existing cars, if not more. But it’s surely not close.

I think there are several goals mixed into Elon's plan for the future of Tesla. Overall goal, specific goals relating to different areas & the ultimate dream goal...goals are great & propel the" goal getter" farther by striving to accomplish..he's obviously a great goal achiever! I wouldn't bet against him, I just think great, magnificent goals take a lot of time..you are safe in your own car for awhile, imo

 

[HankLloydRight]

Sounds nice, but I think we already know this won’t happen. Oddly enough this view of the world has been available for decades...they’re called taxis. There’s no need to own a car, especially with the ease of Uber now. Making cars driverless is the exact same system, just without a human driver.

Exactly. Elon is only focused on the supply side of the equation, not the demand side. Also, if there is a sudden glut of robo-taxies everywhere, that will drastically drive the price down, making the change of making a profit on your own robo-taxi very very difficult. Elon is a brilliant engineer, but has no grasp of basic economics.

Also, the first time someone is hurt, injured, or killed in, or by, a robotaxi (and it WILL happen pretty quickly)-- guess what?? They'll all be banned from the roads and it's back to Uber/Lyft/taxis, exactly where we are now.

 

[ZoomsansVroom]

Which is why I think Tesla/Southeastern Freight/Other Trucking firms should be pushing to do a system similar to rail roads, but with dedicated roads.

We're a long way from computers self-driving in mixed traffic. But I think they could drive, and park, in dedicated lanes, and dedicated structures, now.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Estimated motor vehicle fatalities of 36,750 in the USA in 2018.
Particulate pollution from transportation has a huge negative impact on human health.
There are many millions of people for whom lack of access to a car restricts access to education, employment and important amenities.

So sorry you wouldn't be able to afford your own personal AV and instead would have to spend less money each year by using vehicle hire and rental.

_If_ it even happens.

 

[robdavmil]

Estimated motor vehicle fatalities of 36,750 in the USA in 2018.
Particulate pollution from transportation has a huge negative impact on human health.
There are many millions of people for whom lack of access to a car restricts access to education, employment and important amenities.

So sorry you wouldn't be able to afford your own personal AV and instead would have to spend less money each year by using vehicle hire and rental.

_If_ it even happens.

A) This isn't a discussion of particulates in the air. I'm not arguing for ICE vehicles.
B) Robotaxis will not give everyone access to education, employment, etc. Believe it or not we already have taxis in the world...we've had them for 70 years. Robotaxis will undoubtedly cost more than a driver making minimum wage.

So yes, I'd be annoyed if I did my little part in developing AVs by sending my data to Tesla, paying way too much for FSD ($6k) and then told Sorry...you can't have one. In the end, my guess is we'll be able to purchase certain parts at a reasonable price, and truly FSD/robotaxi will cost a ton. I could live with that.

 

[ZoomsansVroom]

A) Taxi drivers, at least in cities, don't tend to make minimum wage - at least, they didn't before Lyft/Uber.
B) The excess of those drivers has been one of the reasons why NYC's average traffic speed is in free fall.
C) Time spent driving is a waste. Its one of the appeal of trains - given the room, a 1 hour commute via rail - or say a robo taxi - is an hour to go over email/etc. Depending on the privacy standards of the Robotaxi, it might even be a place where phone calls could be made.

 

[Tam]

...Believe it or not we already have taxis in the world...

Human-driven Taxis can be inconvenient and costly especially at odd hours.

RoboTaxis don't sleep so costs and inconvenience can be mitigated.

 

[Darren Donovan]

How is it a sell out when, if FSD works at some point in the future the cars are worth more and so sell for more? Did you imagine this was going to happen next year?

Lol. By the time FSD works, you will have replaced the door handles 50 times, all the rubber seals on the car will have withered away, original paint will be so faded that the underlying metal is exposed, drive units will have been replaced a few times, battery will most likely have been degraded to less than 50%, MCU will be at version 8 (maybe?),...Music streaming via USB may still have issues. Now how is that car worth more? However, maybe you'll have League of Legends or Halo to play in the car.

 

[dipper]

With all these China bullying companies.... Especially now that they are exposed with NBA, for those not understanding situation already...

Forget FSD, when will Elon Musk turned off all our cars, by order of China? Or maybe he will just blame China for no FSD.

 

[Tam]

With all these China bullying companies.... Especially now that they are exposed with NBA, for those not understanding situation already...

Forget FSD, when will Elon Musk turned off all our cars, by order of China? Or maybe he will just blame China for no FSD.

The President of the United States said "Trade wars are good, and easy to win" so wouldn't that be enough for an answer or are you claiming that China is much more powerful than the President's words and not just words only but by the action of turning off Tesla's FSD?

 

[Darren Donovan]

With all these China bullying companies.... Especially now that they are exposed with NBA, for those not understanding situation already...

Forget FSD, when will Elon Musk turned off all our cars, by order of China? Or maybe he will just blame China for no FSD.

A little off topic, but the NBA should be ashamed of themselves. Sickening.