Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Tesla trading chart for Jan 19

NASDAQ chart for Jan 19

TSLA technical chart, including Jan 19

We knew last night that today was going to be good because the market historically reacts to Morgan Stanley upgrades or downgrades, and Adam Jonas moved his target up about $60 and went from neutral to buy rating. Thus, the stock was already above 245 when before-hours trading began. Many TMC members sought to understand the weak performance of TSLA after the early morning hours. Broader markets were down. Refer to illustration 2 and you will see a general correlation between TSLA trading and NASDAQ trading, with the exception that TSLA began the trading day much higher than it closed yesterday.

One possible explanation for the weak performance during mid-afternoon is that longs were taking some profits and de-risking somewhat after the significant climb. Volume exceeded 7M shares. Inauguration day tomorrow holds the possibility of producing some negative market moves if civil unrest becomes excessive, but if all goes fairly smoothly, there's also a chance for a collective sigh of relief and a broader market rally. Thus, the short term remains questionable, but the uptrend remains solid after today's action and it could weather several days of flat trading without falling outside its bounds.

The technical chart is interesting because you can see the 200 dma remains fairly flat at about 214, but TSLA continues heading up in its up channel. Notice that TSLA today went considerably above the upper bollinger band, which is a bullish indication, but then settled back into the upper end of the channel prior to close. If you study the technical chart, you will see that every time TSLA zoomed above the upper bollinger band, with few exceptions it settled back down into the channel before close. Those times it closed above the upper band it closed not far above. Keep this history in mind as you do your trading in future days.

Conditions:
* Dow down 72 (0.37%)
* NASDAQ down 16 (0.28%)
* TSLA 243.76, up 5.40 (2.27%)
* TSLA volume 7.7M shares
* Oil 51.39, up 0.31 (0.61%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: ?

 

[Robertj]

I note that we have now had 6 positive weeks since approx 9th December
No weeks have yet been negative
Maybe we are due for a pullback before Q4 results and forward looking statements
I note that in April 2013 there was a 10 week positive movement
Before a 2 weeks pullback and a further 13 week run
During those 25 weeks the share price went from $40 to $190
I am not expecting that level of movement this time but if the
general market trends hold the period of positive price improvement
Might last 20 plus weeks

Maybe the big move might be in March with the Model 3 full reveal or in July , with the Model 3 release ?

The company still has a high level of short sellers and tightly held shares

 

[Papafox]

Today was a triple-witching options Friday with moderate volume and relatively low volatility, which likely allowed the market makers to exert some influence on the closing price. I predicted a bit less than 245 and so it was. This was not a hard call if you look at the chart above.

One notable trading event today was the volume during the first minute of trading: 196,000 shares. Wow. Short sellers made a noble attempt at a mandatory morning dip that fizzled within minutes. Hoping that some of you bought in during this mini-dip.

A new POTUS was sworn in today. Protests barely made the headlines and so we might see up markets on Monday.

This has been as Robertj points out above, TSLA's 6th consecutive positive week. TSLA ended last week at 237.75 and so the gain for this week is just shy of $7.00. Biggest discovery? TSLA often rises above the upper bollinger band but seldom closed above it, and when it closed above it the stock was just barely above it. Let's watch this metric closely in the coming week. Two big pieces of news this week were the Morgan Stanley upgrade to a 305 price target and news that the NHTSA not only dropped the investigation into the Florida autopilot accident but that autopilot-equipped Teslas are showing a phenomenal 40% reduction in accidents.

The other big story of the week is short interest. We're told that short interest is up to 37.5 million shares, or $8.9 billion. Shorts think we've reached the end of the uptrend and are jumping in. The squeeze that is possible when really positive news breaks for Tesla could indeed produce a memorable squeeze.

I also believe in techmaven's view that we are likely to see up, down, up as TSLA's price movement. At some point we could well see a dip, but I believe the high level of shorting at the moment plus the likelihood of a seriously good Q1 will propel TSLA higher again, just as long as Q4 ER is reasonable, guidance for 2017 continues to be very positive, and Model 3 stays on track. I have about 10% of my investment money in cash at the moment, to take advantage of any dip, but I'm very heavily invested in TSLA and will ride out the dip, if it happens, because I don't want to be caught low on TSLA if this rally continues unabated or if we're surprised by a squeeze taking place earlier than expected. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 95 (0.49%)
* NASDAQ up 15 (0.28%)
* TSLA 244.73, up 0.97 (0.40%)
* TSLA volume4.2M shares
* Oil 53.22, up 1.1 (2.11%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 60,000 shares, 1.75%

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 211485

Today was a triple-witching options Friday with moderate volume and relatively low volatility, which likely allowed the market makers to exert some influence on the closing price. I predicted a bit less than 245 and so it was. This was not a hard call if you look at the chart above.

One notable trading event today was the volume during the first minute of trading: 196,000 shares. Wow. Short sellers made a noble attempt at a mandatory morning dip that fizzled within minutes. Hoping that some of you bought in during this mini-dip.

A new POTUS was sworn in today. Protests barely made the headlines and so we might see up markets on Monday.

This has been as Robertj points out above, TSLA's 6th consecutive positive week. TSLA ended last week at 237.75 and so the gain for this week is just shy of $7.00. Biggest discovery? TSLA often rises above the upper bollinger band but seldom closed above it, and when it closed above it the stock was just barely above it. Let's watch this metric closely in the coming week. Two big pieces of news this week were the Morgan Stanley upgrade to a 305 price target and news that the NHTSA not only dropped the investigation into the Florida autopilot accident but that autopilot-equipped Teslas are showing a phenomenal 40% reduction in accidents.

The other big story of the week is short interest. We're told that short interest is up to 37.5 million shares, or $8.9 billion. Shorts think we've reached the end of the uptrend and are jumping in. The squeeze that is possible when really positive news breaks for Tesla could indeed produce a memorable squeeze.

I also believe in techmaven's view that we are likely to see up, down, up as TSLA's price movement. At some point we could well see a dip, but I believe the high level of shorting at the moment plus the likelihood of a seriously good Q1 will propel TSLA higher again, just as long as Q4 ER is reasonable, guidance for 2017 continues to be very positive, and Model 3 stays on track. I have about 10% of my investment money in cash at the moment, to take advantage of any dip, but I'm very heavily invested in TSLA and will ride out the dip, if it happens, because I don't want to be caught low on TSLA if this rally continues unabated or if we're surprised by a squeeze taking place earlier than expected. Enjoy your weekend.

Conditions:
* Dow up 95 (0.49%)
* NASDAQ up 15 (0.28%)
* TSLA 244.73, up 0.97 (0.40%)
* TSLA volume4.2M shares
* Oil 53.22, up 1.1 (2.11%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 60,000 shares, 1.75%

Fidelity is borrowing every last single shares from my accounts that they can get their hands on to lend out to short sellers. I mean literally every single share. Even though I'm getting paid just 1% interest I'm happy to let the shorts pay me interest while I patiently await the inevitable mother of all short squeezes. And make no mistakes it's coming...sometimes this year, maybe sooner than shorts suspect. Some pullback maybe good to further lull the shorts into a sense of complacency but if there is minimal to no pullback that would simply indicate the huge underlying institutional support that TSLA has now and would be extremely bullish
I'm super excited....

 

[neroden]

Why isn't Schwab borrowing any shares at all? Frustrating. I've simply had too much going on in the last month to open new Fidelity accounts (had to change health insurance and all kinds of other awful stuff).

Here's hoping the shorts short even more.

 

[adiggs]

My guess at what I'm seeing from Fidelity is that they don't bother borrowing shares at under 1%. My guess on a guess, is that they've found that when the borrow rate goes under 1%, then lenders (you and me), call them up and ask for our shares back in large enough numbers, that the enterprise becomes a big paperwork headache with no or negative money in it for Fidelity.

On the lending side, I think we've seen rates between 1.75% and 2.25% (mostly 2) over the last several weeks -- that's Fidelity adjusting the demand to the supply they have available.

If this guessing is correct, then I predict that if the lending rate goes to 1.25 or 1.5% and stays for more than a day or 2, then fidelity will drop the borrow rate to 0 and start sending shares home.

So Tesla remains a hard to borrow stock for short sellers, but we're also right on the edge between it being profitable for Fidelity to borrow/lend shares or not. It might be that it's already not profitable for Schwab, and thus they're sitting it out (hence not borrowing your shares).

 

[Papafox]

Daily TSLA trading chart for Monday, Jan. 23, 2017

TSLA technical chart for Dec 2016 and Jan 2017

Today was a classic trading day in the uptrend for multiple reasons. Once again, the Monday morning first hour of trading rally didn't disappoint and TSLA briefly topped 250 before sliding a point by end of the day. Monday morning open continues to be a good time to get a nice price if you're selling anything TSLA. Then we had the usual upper bollinger band dance take place. Enthusiastic buyers bid TSLA above the upper bollinger band this morning, and when that happened I sold a couple of calls. Sure enough, the stock price retreated inside the band prior to close. The biggest constraint we're seeing on this rally remains the upper bollinger band. The stock keeps rising (won't go on forever) at this time but mostly stays just below the upper BB. Food for thought if you're trading.

Volume of 6.3M shares is high, but take a look at some specific moments. The "buy/sell on market open" volume was 151,000 shares today, and the "buy/sell on market close" volume was 123,000 shares. These types of share purchases don't typically change the stock price much and I suspect are an indication that big institutional investors continue to buy in.

Because institutional investors appear to continue their TSLA buying spree, shorts are having a difficult time. Fidelity was almost completely out of shares available to short early this morning, but some big traders covered in the morning, so that we saw net covering. Here are all these shorts, underwater in a long uptrend with interest rates starting to rise. Oh, and the good news about Q1 hasn't even begun yet. As Elon would say, "it is unwise to be shorting Tesla."

Conditions:
* Dow down 27 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ down 2 (0.04%)
* TSLA 248.92, up 4.19 (1.71%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 52.83, down 0.39 (0.73%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and rate: initially 58,000, changing to (77,000) interest 1.75% moved to 2.00%
* Elon Musk was in Washington D.C. this morning, advising Trump

 

[TrendTrader007]

View attachment 211815

Daily TSLA trading chart for Monday, Jan. 23, 2017

View attachment 211817
TSLA technical chart for Dec 2016 and Jan 2017

Today was a classic trading day in the uptrend for multiple reasons. Once again, the Monday morning first hour of trading rally didn't disappoint and TSLA briefly topped 250 before sliding a point by end of the day. Monday morning open continues to be a good time to get a nice price if you're selling anything TSLA. Then we had the usual upper bollinger band dance take place. Enthusiastic buyers bid TSLA above the upper bollinger band this morning, and when that happened I sold a couple of calls. Sure enough, the stock price retreated inside the band prior to close. The biggest constraint we're seeing on this rally remains the upper bollinger band. The stock keeps rising (won't go on forever) at this time but mostly stays just below the upper BB. Food for thought if you're trading.

Volume of 6.3M shares is high, but take a look at some specific moments. The "buy/sell on market open" volume was 151,000 shares today, and the "buy/sell on market close" volume was 123,000 shares. These types of share purchases don't typically change the stock price much and I suspect are an indication that big institutional investors continue to buy in.

Because institutional investors appear to continue their TSLA buying spree, shorts are having a difficult time. Fidelity was almost completely out of shares available to short early this morning, but some big traders covered in the morning, so that we saw net covering. Here are all these shorts, underwater in a long uptrend with interest rates starting to rise. Oh, and the good news about Q1 hasn't even begun yet. As Elon would say, "it is unwise to be shorting Tesla."

Conditions:
* Dow down 27 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ down 2 (0.04%)
* TSLA 248.92, up 4.19 (1.71%)
* TSLA volume 6.3M shares
* Oil 52.83, down 0.39 (0.73%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and rate: initially 58,000, changing to (77,000) interest 1.75% moved to 2.00%
* Elon Musk was in Washington D.C. this morning, advising Trump

It seems to me that TSLA wants to ride the Bollinger and wants to go parabolic similar to April/may 2013 timeframe
Hourly chart look too good not to follow through. This stock is displaying incredible technical strength and it will confound every one and keep on rising despite being overbought
2017 belongs to TSLA shorts will learn their painful lesson like it's 2013 all over again

 

[Papafox]

Down to zero shares available for shorting at Fidelity.

Today was a very positive day in the broader markets, which might explain what is happening with TSLA stock. It has closed above the upper bollinger band on strong trading during afternoon hours. Normally you would see a settling of TSLA in the afternoon so that it closes near or below the upper bb.

One fascinating side show is the action with short sellers. The very positive trading today was not at all hampered by the short-selling of nearly 150,000 shares. As some shorts cover, new shorts buy in. The problem for the shorts is that this action keeps the available supply of shares close to depleted, which may place upward pressure on the interest rate and encourage more covering later on when a big positive event occurs. Because of the swollen number of shorts, even with the stock zooming higher, I remain especially optimistic about the 2017 prospects for this stock. This run up we're seeing is based upon the suggestion that 2017 numbers will be good and Model 3 will be close to on time. When Tesla actually delivers on the potential, the stock has more room to climb and has a full contingent of shorts to squeeze. I cannot move too far to the sidelines when such a combination is in place.

On the one hand, a macro-induced dip is possible at any time. On the other hand, we have never seen how this stock behaves after trading horizontally for three years when solid projections for the year and beyond suddenly starts coming forward. The simultaneous maturing of the Model S and X production line, the beginning of significant Tesla Energy production, the rapid maturing of autopilot, and the upcoming release of Model 3 might be more than traders have been expecting. Realize that nothing is certain, but also realize that most of us may be underestimating the power of this rally (Trendtrader007 excluded, of course).

Here's a final catalyst to consider. Many Telsa owners of earlier cars own TSLA stock. As they make money from the stock, a natural consequence will be to use some of the proceeds to upgrade to an Autopilot 2.0 and dual-motor version of the vehicle. Rising TSLA SP = more Tesla owners ready to upgrade to newer vehicles.

Conditions:
* Dow up 113 (0.57%)
* NASDAQ up 48 (0.86%)
* TSLA 254.61, up 5.69 2.29%)
* TSLA volume 4.9M shares
* Oil 53.1, up 0.35 (0.66%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 148,000 shares, 2.00%

 

[Papafox]

Here's the after-hours trading of TSLA today. Notice the slope upward to 254.99 close today. I take this gentle upslope as a bullish indication about tomorrow's opening trading. Right now the trading community is focused on TSLA. People want in. I've put aside my slow derisking strategy at the moment and I'm hanging on to my current position. The uptrend is too strong to ignore at this time.

 

[Incredulocious]

Why isn't Schwab borrowing any shares at all? Frustrating. I've simply had too much going on in the last month to open new Fidelity accounts (had to change health insurance and all kinds of other awful stuff).

Here's hoping the shorts short even more.

I've found that Schwab has always lagged Fidelity since I started loaning shares: Schwab returned shares earlier, they raised the interest rate later and they never quite matched Fidelity's rate. Schwab also goes through the trouble of asking me to confirm whether I want my shares loaned out again before doing it where Fidelity just does it. And, like you, my TSLA shares at Schwab have not been loaned out for well over a month. The bulk of my TSLA shares are at Fidelity and there was only a week or so where they weren't earning interest, a month or two ago. And both my brother's and my girlfriend's shares remain fully loaned out at Fidelity.

I wonder sometimes how much all this open talking about this ability to earn interest from loaning shares has led to many more people doing this and added up to make more shares available and reduce the payoff for those of us in the know. Hmmm... remember Men in Black? Everyone reading this right now... I want you to stop scrolling and concentrate on this display for a moment.... you may see a strange flash, but it's nothing to be concerned about.

 

[TrendTrader007]

$TSLA basically reflects Soros' theory of reflexivity in that all knowledge is imperfect and market perception changes with rising
or falling SP which in turn affects fundamentals as well as wealth effect which in turn tends to propagate the existing trend
i have 3 reservations already in place for M3 and i will definitely buy 3 Tesla cars in 2017 to 2018 timeframe
a rising SP directly improves fundamentals of Tesla in that it improves its financing ability as well as employee morale.
therefore the inescapable conclusion is that TSLA is on the cusp of a virtuous multiyear rising SP cycle fueled by changing market perception, short covering, increasing institutional support, improving fundamentals
the only 2 mistakes are right now selling short selling too soon

 

[Papafox]

Today was a big day for the broader markets, and sometimes that situation works against Tesla if it is having a down day because traders go elsewhere for greener pastures, looking for stocks more closely linked to broader market performance. Nonetheless, with some selling putting pressure on the stock price, TSLA bounced back by the end of the day to close nearly even, which is a positive response to a test of red.

Taking a look at the technical trading chart above, you can see what I believe is the primary reason for this slight loss. Yesterday, buyers got a bit too enthusiastic for TSLA and the SP closed above the upper bollinger band, which it normally doesn't do. Today, the sideways trading allowed TSLA to position itself just below the upper bb, where it seems to gravitate during this uptrend. I see no reason to believe that the uptrend is being challenged. This is just normal trading for TSLA these days.

The fact that Fidelity shares to short are nearly depleted is a positive sign, as it leaves the shorts with very little ammo if there's a negative trading event.

Conditions:
* Dow up 156 (0.78%)
* NASDAQ up 55 (0.99%)
* TSLA 254.47, down 0.14 (0.05%)
* TSLA volume 5.1M shares
* Oil 52.81, down 0.37 (0.7%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 54,090 with shares depleted, rate dropped from 2.75% to 2.00%

 

[Papafox]

Daily chart for TSLA, Jan 26, 2017

Technical chart for TSLA, Jan 26

Today the broader markets cooled and so did TSLA a bit. Otherwise, the slide back into a more comfortable location in the uptrend, relative to the upper bollinger band, continues. We should expect an up day on Friday or Monday. If that doesn't occur, it'd be time to look closer at the uptrend. So far TSLA is trading weaker in after-hours, which would suggest a cautious start of trading tomorrow.

Conditions:
* Dow up 32 (0.16%)
* NASDAQ down 1 (0.02%)
* TSLA 252.51, down 1.96 (0.77%)
* TSLA volume 3.1M shares
* Oil 50.73, down 0.05 (0.09%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate- (9,000) shares covered, steady at 2.00%

 

[neroden]

I've found that Schwab has always lagged Fidelity since I started loaning shares: Schwab returned shares earlier, they raised the interest rate later and they never quite matched Fidelity's rate. Schwab also goes through the trouble of asking me to confirm whether I want my shares loaned out again before doing it where Fidelity just does it. And, like you, my TSLA shares at Schwab have not been loaned out for well over a month. The bulk of my TSLA shares are at Fidelity and there was only a week or so where they weren't earning interest, a month or two ago. And both my brother's and my girlfriend's shares remain fully loaned out at Fidelity.

Yeah, I have to open a Fidelity account. Simply can't do it right now though, way too much going on in my life. Guess I'll forego the interest for another month.

 

[Papafox]

Here's a partial chart from Friday. The full-day's chart was gorked by an after-hour anomaly.

Here's the technical chart for Friday, Jan 27

Sorry for the late post- sometimes life gets in the way.

This week was another positive week for TSLA. We started at 244.73 and ended at 252.95, up 8.22 for the week. On Thursday we saw a descent into closing and then further descent during after-hours trading. As expected, trading started off somewhat rocky on Friday morning, but the stock rallied after dipping below 250 and ended the day up slightly. I would expect a positive first hour of trading on Monday morning. The big question is whether the shorts had much to do with the weak showing of TSLA Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. I think it is quite possible, given the drawdown, the lighter volume, and a motive of trying to turn this uptrend into a downtrend.

I continue to believe that Q1 will be by far Tesla's best quarter ever and will be a very positive catalyst that will propel TSLA higher. The big question is whether we see a dip between now and then. So, when I talk about maintaining the uptrend, I am referring to maintaining this leg of the uptrend. So far, on a weekly basis, TSLA remains on track to sustain this leg.

Looking towards Monday and referring to the tech chart above, TSLA could climb $8 and still not have bumped its head on the upper bb. So, if someone lets the bulls out to run, there's room for a nice frolic.

Conditions:
* Dow down 7 (0.04%)
* NASDAQ up 6 (0.10%)
* TSLA 252.95, up 0.44 (0.17%)
* TSLA volume 3.2M shares
* Oil (Sunday night) 52.89, down 0.28 (0.53%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 116,000 shares, 2.00% steady

 

[Papafox]

Monday's daily chart

Monday's tech chart

Everything was set for a positive bump first hour today (champagne opened, balloons floating in air, crepe paper strung from the ceiling) but the bump was low and of short duration because both the Dow and the NASDAQ did swan dives on opening, which pulled TSLA down. The shorts went to work with their 109,000 net shares of selling and we bottomed out below 148 before regaining most of that lost ground. Overall, the headwinds TSLA is up against is net short selling vs. net short covering not long ago and descending broader markets vs. buoyant broader markets of recent days. The good news is that few traders are acting as if there's going to be a big dip and so TSLA is being traded very calmly by the longs (which must be disconcerting for the shorts).

With TSLA trading more than $10 below the upper bollinger band now, there's room for a big jump up if conditions are right, but so far the broader market is preventing a more optimistic response from TSLA. Whether TSLA resumes its rally when the broader markets go green again remains to be seen.

Conditions:
* Dow down 123 (0.49%)
* NASDAQ down 47 (0.83%)
* TSLA 250.63, down 2.32 (0.92%)
* TSLA volume 3.8M shares
* Oil 52.37, down 0.26 (0.49%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 109,000 shares, up from 2% to 2.50%

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA was unusually strong this morning as the broader markets were down. TSLA exceeded 255 before settling for a smaller gain.

What's particularly noteable is the method of trading. On the one hand, we no longer see the slow climb which is indicative of big institutions buying in. On the other hand, we see some rather large purchases, which may indicate either shorts covering or large traders jumping in. About 11:30am, right before the day's high, we saw 44,000 shares change hand in one minute as part of the buying frenzy, and at the end of the day 93,000 shares traded hands in the final minute of the day. Buyers certainly are still out there.

The big question is whether this leg of the uptrend resumes before a dip occurs. Today's strong trading suggests we may see some more upward movement if we get a positive macro day. Large numbers of shorts buying in (suggested by the increasing lending rate at Fidelity) suggest some pressure from shorts, but as long as buyers are out there, the 100,000-200,000 or so shares shorted each day do not significantly depress the stock price. Further, if shorts keep jumping in without knocking down the price, we're going to see higher interest rates and the net shorting change to net covering, which will propel TSLA higher. It's really a tug-of-war right now. Can the new shorts pull TSLA down before additional good news allows TSLA to climb higher, which will lead to old shorts jumping ship?

We have also seen considerable support at 250. TSLA buyers materialize any time the stock dips below 250. Bad news about TSLA would change the equation of course, but for now 250 is providing solid support.
Do you bet on a dip or do you bet on a catalyst taking TSLA higher? I don't know the answer, but I know that I have a small amount of dry powder sitting around in case of a dip and I have lots of TSLA stock and leaps because even if there's a dip, I believe 2017 holds much betterdays ahead for TSLA.

One forum member posted that Feb1 is a historically strong day for stocks. If we see macros up on Wednesday, we'll get a good opportunity to see if TSLA is ready to fly again or if it is going to dip before the next leg of the uptrend begins. Tomorrow could add clarity to the dip vs. continued climb debate.

Conditions:
* Dow down 107 (0.54%)
* NASDAQ up 1 (0.02%)
* TSLA 251.93, up 1.30 (0.52%)
* TSLA volume 4.0M shares
* Oil 52.84, up 0.21 (0.4%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 59,000 shares drawdown, 2.50%

 

[Papafox]

Over in the Market Action forum, Vgrinshpun has shown that short interest in TSLA may now exceed 40M shares. This large of a number certainly increases the likelihood of a squeeze some time this year. Please keep this issue in mind as you weigh the options about dry powder for a dip vs. a contined run-up. If a squeeze gets underway, you will be competing with shorts to buy shares, and may not be able to buy in at a reasonable price. I see no catalyst on the short horizon that would trigger a squeeze, but we all have seen TSLA take off and climb (or descend) steeply for reasons that appear to be trivial. Trader beware.

 

[neroden]

View attachment 212755


Do you bet on a dip or do you bet on a catalyst taking TSLA higher? I don't know the answer

I believe Q4 earnings will happen next. Will that be a positive or negative catalyst? Well, we don't know what Q4 earnings will *be*! Personally, I think it'll be a positive surprise; I think analysts' estimates are exceedingly pessimistic.

I don't think that will cause a short-covering rally because the shorts are *so sure of themselves*, but I do think it could cause a rally driven by longs piling in.