Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts

[Papafox]

Today was a weak day for TSLA even though the broader indexes were up. It closed below 250, which has been a strong support level in the past. Today's performance pushes the "dip vs. continued climb" index further toward the dip side and I think some traders reduced holdings, hoping to reinvest during a dip. My guess is that the dip would be fairly shallow, owing to a lack of negative news and to the fact that the buying we've seen has been predicated on events yet to come (Q1 financials, Model 3 productions still on track) vs. response to events that have already happened (Q4 delivery numbers, gigafactory beginning to produce cells). The institutional investors who bought in during the past two months are clearly in for the longer run, rather than to take advantage of a short pop in stock price. For these reasons, I think any dip will be mild, and when the dip starts to recover the stock price could recover quickly.

Shorts continue to add to their positions, and we can expect to see the interest rate creeping up. Looking at our own members of this forum, those members who are trimming shares right now are doing so to play the dip, rather than because of beliefs that TSLA is overpriced. I suspect other longs hold similar views, and such views suggest a modest dip with a rather quick recovery once it begins.

Conditions:
* Dow up 27 (0.14%)
* NASDAQ up 28 (0.50%)
* TSLA 249.24, down 2.69 (1.07%)
* TSLA volume 3.9M shares
* Oil 53.55, up 0.74 (1.4%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 70,000 shares drawdown, 2.50% steady
* News: Apple's ER exceeded expectations and sent that stock higher, which has an effect on other NASDAQ stocks

 

[Papafox]

Today the pendulum swung slightly back in favor of a continued rally. Looking at the daily chart, you can see what appears to be an effort by shorts to cap at 252 and thereby deny a more robust climb. Since today was a slightly negative day for the broader markets, and since Fridays have often been good for TSLA, perhaps we will see a more robust climb tomorrow that will show TSLA remaining in the uptrend.

Part of the shift from yesterday's negative action to today's positive movement of the TSLA SP could be attributed to news. Yesterday we learned of Indiana's effort to prevent Tesla from implementing its current dealer-free business model in the state. Today we learned that TSLA is likely to be grandfathered into Indiana's bill so that it can continue to do business in the state. Yesterday we saw Inside-EV delivery numbers released, which were similar to last quarter's (and thereby disappointing). Today Tesla revealed that the Q4 ER will be held Feb 22.

The 250 support level firmed up once again. TSLA looks like it lacks the rocket fuel to climb steeply at the moment without news, but the Q4 ER could possibly provide the needed news and that event is now less than 3 weeks away. In the meantime, shorts will try to define this week as a turning point for the rally and probably will only get slight results for their efforts. We're drifting with the macro tides and the news cycle at the moment.

It is interesting to note that volume was particularly light today as other earnings reports took center stage. This light volume of 2.5M shares contributed to the ability of shorts to cap at 252. Also interesting is the size of trading during the first and last minute of the day, when large numbers of trade do not move the price much. Today we saw 76,000 shares trade during the opening minute and 98,000 shares trade during the final minute. My guess is there is still some institutional buying going on but that efforts are being made to keep the price from rising much further as additional shares are added.

Conditions:
* Dow down 6 (0.03%)
* NASDAQ down 6 (0.11%)
* TSLA 251.55, up 2.31 (0.93%)
* TSLA volume2.5M shares
* Oil 53.67, down 0.21 (0.39%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 91,000 shares drawdown, 2.25%, down from 2.50%

 

[Papafox]

After today's trading, we must look seriously at the stock price action of TSLA and consider that we are now in a consolidation phase. After running up from 180, a consolidation around 250 is a healthy thing. New shorts have been jumping on board, expecting the SP to fall just as it did after the Model 3 reveal (and subsequent negative catalysts). Alas, TSLA longs aren't particularly inclined to sell as they sense gains ahead, and shorts continue to jump aboard without any real impact on the stock price. This is actually a wonderful setup for what is to come later this year as positive catalysts blossom. This is one case where boring stock action is a very good thing for now.

Last week we closed at 252.95. With today's closing price of 251.33, TSLA lost $1.62 for the week. In other words, we traded essentially flat. Let's see how long the consolidation phase lasts. It is possible that we may have to wait until ER on Feb 22 to see substantial movement one way or the other.

Conditions:
* Dow up 187 (0.94%)
* NASDAQ up 31 (0.54%)
* TSLA 251.33, down 0.22 (0.09%)
* TSLA volume 2.0M shares
* Oil 53.85, up 0.31 (0.58%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 18,000 shares net drawdown, 2.25%

 

[Papafox]

A rally likely led by nervous shorts covering brings TSLA firmly back into the uptrend channel again. The stock has another $6 it can run up in the next day or two without exceeding the upper bollinger band excessively. The combination of 40M+ shares held by shorts and a trend toward short covering is likely a big part of the optimism at the moment. Why are shorts starting to cover? One explanation is that the efforts of shorts last week to start a downtrend failed. That failure suggests what most of us already know, which is that sooner or later this year, TSLA is climbing higher.

Take a look at the daily chart. There are areas which look suspiciously like capping, which is possible because over 100,000 new shares to short were taken today. You see patterns throughout the day of level trading, which looks like covering, followed by big moves once the horizontal trading is broken.

I include the technical chart so that you can see how TSLA behaved on previous departures from the upper bb.


Conditions:
* Dow down 19 (0.09%)
* NASDAQ down 3 (0.06%)
* TSLA 257.77, up 6.44 (2.56%)
* TSLA volume 3.5M shares
* Oil 53.1, down 0.73 (1.36%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: (416,000) shares net covering, 2.00%, down from 2.25%

 

[neroden]

So this looks like an actual short-covering rally. Huh!

 

[Papafox]

So this looks like an actual short-covering rally. Huh!

If you consider Fidelity as supplier to maybe half of the short sellers, then 416,000 net covering yesterday equates to something like 800K to 1 million net shorts covering yesterday, which would account for something less than a third the buying but it's a big enough number to get the stock rising. What's important is that we went quite a long way up the price ladder before we saw substantial numbers of shorts covering, and now we're seeing it. Meanwhile, there's a fairly substantial drawdown of short shares, too, so the 416,000 number is the net number and the number covering was higher but offset by a large number of new short positions opened. Once the shorts get scared enough so that nobody is opening the new positions, then you're going to see a much more robust short rally.

 

[Papafox]

Today was a fascinating day for watching the various flavors of shorts taking opposite strategies. One big return of 469,000 short shares occurred, but with 269,000 net covering that means nearly 200,000 shares were sold short at Fidelity. Today was a day dominated by some shorts in selling mode and one big dog short covering. Last night I predicted that shorts would protect the 258.xx trigger for buying that one stock advisor had set, and sure enough, we saw a serious effort today to cause TSLA to close at least slightly in the red. Any time you see the stock shift this often between green and red, there's someone working an agenda.

In the closing minute, 154,000 shares traded hands, which indicates to me that some big buyer is still picking up shares but trying not to drive the price higher with the buying.

TSLA briefly touched 260 in the morning run-up.

Conditions:
* Dow up 38 (0.19%)
* NASDAQ up 11 (0.19%)
* TSLA 257.48, down 0.29 (0.11%)
* TSLA volume 4.2M shares
* Oil 51.63, down 0.54 (1.04%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: (269,000) net covering but included one cover of (469,000) to balance a fair amount of drawdown, 2.00% steady

 

[Papafox]

Today TSLA showed that it is very much still climbing. I would not be surprised to see it temporarily push through the upper bollinger band and then slip slightly back to close just below it. If you are doing any trading, keep the upper bollinger band in mind. Looks like 265.72 is the upper bb's location today, but it will climb with each day this week.

Take a look at a pattern we saw yesterday. As the stock price approached 261, 262, and 263, it traded horizontally with a slight negative slope for a while before busting through the whole number and climbing quickly higher. The excessively prolonged hesitation at 263 allowed forces to eventually pull the SP down a bit. Notice the rebound after the fall, though. Longs are not jittery about the stock price, one could surmise from the rebound.

Today was the second day in a row where we've seen a big dog short cover to the tune of over 400K shares. The once solid block of shorts is now a disjointed group with some running for the exits and smaller numbers of shares drawn down by others, for a net effect of covering. So far, covering by shorts has been a much smaller part of the climb, compared to institutions and other big buyers reestablishing positions. Excellent news in the 4Q ER could potentially set off a squeeze, and part of the reason why longs are jumping onboard and shorts are jumping ship is because of the possibility of a positive 4Q ER and subsequent squeeze. Of course negative news in the 4Q ER could cause an opposite effect, so trader beware.

Conditions:
* Dow down 36 (0.18%)
* NASDAQ up 8 (0.15%)
* TSLA 262.08, up 4.60 (1.79%)
* TSLA volume 3.8M shares
* Oil 52.4, up 0.23 (0.44%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: Initially 78,000 shares drawdown at 8:30am, but then two big dog shorts covered for a net of (368,000 shares) covering. Interest remains at 2.00%

 

[EinSV]

View attachment 213861

View attachment 213862

Today TSLA showed that it is very much still climbing. I would not be surprised to see it temporarily push through the upper bollinger band and then slip slightly back to close just below it. If you are doing any trading, keep the upper bollinger band in mind. Looks like 265.72 is the upper bb's location today, but it will climb with each day this week.

Take a look at a pattern we saw yesterday. As the stock price approached 261, 262, and 263, it traded horizontally with a slight negative slope for a while before busting through the whole number and climbing quickly higher. The excessively prolonged hesitation at 263 allowed forces to eventually pull the SP down a bit. Notice the rebound after the fall, though. Longs are not jittery about the stock price, one could surmise from the rebound.

Today was the second day in a row where we've seen a big dog short cover to the tune of over 400K shares. The once solid block of shorts is now a disjointed group with some running for the exits and smaller numbers of shares drawn down by others, for a net effect of covering. So far, covering by shorts has been a much smaller part of the climb, compared to institutions and other big buyers reestablishing positions. Excellent news in the 4Q ER could potentially set off a squeeze, and part of the reason why longs are jumping onboard and shorts are jumping ship is because of the possibility of a positive 4Q ER and subsequent squeeze. Of course negative news in the 4Q ER could cause an opposite effect, so trader beware.

Conditions:
* Dow down 36 (0.18%)
* NASDAQ up 8 (0.15%)
* TSLA 262.08, up 4.60 (1.79%)
* TSLA volume 3.8M shares
* Oil 52.4, up 0.23 (0.44%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: Initially 78,000 shares drawdown at 8:30am, but then two big dog shorts covered for a net of (368,000 shares) covering. Interest remains at 2.00%

Thanks again @Papafox for these posts. Very, very helpful!!

 

[Papafox]

Here's the after-market trading of TSLA today. TSLA closed at 264.59 in after-market trading, presumably because of the mention of Feb 20 production of pilot Model 3 cars. Tomorrow's opening could be quite interesting.

We may just see TSLA zoom through my upper bollinger band resistance tomorrow. If you have any short-term trades, put some thought into what's happening at present.

 

[1kEE]

I have to say thank you for your daily charts and analysis. This is very helpful stuff!!

 

[Papafox]

Yesterday's news about Model 3 pilot production in late February led to a big gap up in prices at opening today. In Frankfurt, TSLA closed at about $269.50, giving an unusually accurate idea of what to expect on the NASDAQ trading today. TSLA had tailwinds from macros and held onto its gains very well today.

With a net drawdown of shares to short at Fidelity and reported zero shares to short at IB, it's safe to say that today's rally was driven by longs, not by shorts covering. The tenacity of the longs holding up the stock price throughout the day without significant profit-taking suggests that longs continue to believe that better days lay ahead for TSLA in the foreseeable future.

Taking a look at the technical chart, you can see that TSLA closed above the upper bollinger band today. If no substantial positive catalysts pop up in the next couple of days, I would expect TSLA to trade somewhat sideways to reestablish itself below the upper bb. From there, it's anyone's guess where we go. Much depends upon future news. Without future news you may see some profit-taking prior to the Q4 ER, but if Q4 ER and guidance is good, it's off to the races.


Conditions:
* Dow up 118 (0.59%)
* NASDAQ up 33 (0.58%)
* TSLA 269.20, up 7.12 (2.72%)
* TSLA volume 7.7M shares
* Oil 53.09, up 0.75 (1.43%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: Fidelity had 533,000 shares available to short Wednesday afternoon but on open this morning only 105,000 shares were made available. Obviously, Fidelity is holding some shares back and rationing the available shares. Even thought this was a big up day, almost all of those shares were drawn down with only about (10,000) covered, so a net drawdown of about 100,000 shares. 2.00% remains the interest rate.

 

[geneclean55]

Worth noting that SPY broke out of a range it has been trading within for the past couple weeks to a new all time high. Any continuation tomorrow could extend TSLA gains.

 

[Papafox]

As expected, TSLA traded sideways today, despite rumors of unionization pressures at Fremont and a net drawdown of 157,000 shares to short. At 10:56 am, 80,000 shares were sold one minute after the day's high to keep the day's trading from becoming too enthusiastic I'd bet big bucks that was shorts leading that selling. On today's chart, notice how the positive and negative movements of the stock slowly trimmed down to near zero gain or loss. I'd call this dynamically stable if it was a physics problem. The stock price now sits very close to the upper bollinger band, which has proven to be a fairly comfortable place for the stock.

For the week TSLA climbed from 251.33 to 269.23, or nearly $18. If you average the past two weeks (flat plus $18, the resulting $9/wk climb keeps TSLA right on cue for maintaining its spectacular rally.

On Monday, the typical first hour buying spree could push TSLA above 270 and set up further climb. On the other hand, if the broader markets are down Monday morning and the shorts draw down the substantial shares available to short, you could see negative action.

Conditions:
* Dow up 97 (0.48%)
* NASDAQ up 19 (0.33%)
* TSLA 269.23, up 0.03 (0.01%)
* TSLA volume 3.6M shares
* Oil 53.8, up 0.8 (1.51%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 157,000 net drawdown, 2.00%

 

[austinEV]

Stockcharts was slow to update to the final slightly positive price. The bar is black now.

 

[Papafox]

Stockcharts was slow to update to the final slightly positive price. The bar is black now.

Thanks austinEV. Here's the updated chart:

 

[Papafox]

One of the big questions today is "what's TSLA's ATH?" Here's your answer.

The highest interday trading price I could find for TSLA was on Sept 4, 2014, when we touched 291.42. TSLA closed that day at 286.04, which I believe is the highest closing price. Other notable closing prices:
July 2, 2015- $280.02
July 20, 2015- $282.26

What a day! TSLA closed up 11.37 after a nearly 18 point gain last week. Information indicates that today's rally was driven by longs, not shorts. The rapid rise suggests smaller investors and traders, instead of institutional investors. During this 2 month rally, TSLA would from time to time exceed the upper bollinger band by a small bit but would usually drift down to close at or below the upper bb. Today was the only day so far in this rally when TSLA closed well above the upper bb, signalling a breakout. Whether this signal leads to further buying or we see a move back towards the upper bb tomorrow remains to be seen. I wish to stay invested in TSLA so that when the inevitable rise from mass exodus by shorts happens, I'm in a position to take advantage of it.

On a personal note, I was very busy trading today, taking advantage of the interest in 2017 gains to sell my J18 deep ITM leaps and move to J19 deep ITM leaps for only a couple of bucks extra. I also sold my June calls and moved the money into a smaller number of deep ITM J19 leaps. I have now pretty much completed my move from mid-term trader to long-term trader and my exposure to TSLA has fallen all the way down to 160% (if you consider the leverage of leaps)! No doubt there will be many short-term and mid-term opportunities in the year ahead, but they're often hard to anticipate. I'm setting in to ride out the dips and benefit from Tesla's bringing Model 3, Tesla Energy, and Solar City activities to high productivity levels.

Conditions:
* Dow up 143 (0.70%)
* NASDAQ up 30 (0.52%)
* TSLA 280.60, up 11.37 (4.22%)
* TSLA volume 7.0 M shares
* Oil 52.91, down 0.95 (1.76%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 176,000 shares net drawdown, 2.00% interest still

 

[Papafox]

Yesterday we were wondering whether TSLA would continue the breakout or gravitate slowly back towards the upper bollinger band. Actually, we saw both. In the morning, the SP shot up to 286.70. If we could have held that price, TSLA would have closed at a new ATH closing price, beating Sept 4, 2014's 286.04. Alas, the share prices headed slowly downhill and sunk right at the end of the day, likely feeling the selling pressure from shorts who are no doubt trying to draw the line in the sand that THIS is as high as we go before a reversal. Where does TSLA go from here? Longs don't seem very jumpy when we see a decline such as this afternoon's, so I don't expect to see a big dip unless there's negative news. On the other hand, consolidation to put TSLA below the upper bb is quite possible this week.

The 4Q ER is a week and a day away, and so much of what we see during the coming week will be positioning for the ER. You may see some downward pressure from traders doing profit-taking prior to the uncertainty of the ER, and you might also see some momentum traders jumping in on the hopes that guidance in the ER sends TSLA higher. Just as we saw consolidation around the 250 price point, we may see consolidation in the 280 price range for a few days.

Even though the current price point makes a momentum trader buy-in to TSLA prior to the ER look pretty scary, in many ways it is not. If the results and/or guidance surprises positively to the upside, TSLA is going to be back on the rise again, and the jackpot (flushing out the large number of persistent shorts) could be hit. If the ER disappoints, the SP will fall, but once Model 3 is being delivered in volume later this year TSLA is likely to be a $300+ stock, and so a bad ER would necessitate holding the stock for less than a year to achieve a nice return.

Even though some apparent short manipulation of the price took place in late afternoon, we saw unusually high volume for the opening and closing minute of trading today with 220,000 shares and 97,000 shares traded, respectively.

Conditions:
* Dow up 92 (0.45%)
* NASDAQ up 19 (0.32%)
* TSLA 280.98, up 0.38 (0.14%)
* TSLA volume 7.2M shares
* Oil 53.20, up 0.27 (0.51%)
* Morning's Fidelity short share drawdown or (covering) and interest rate: 127,000 drawdown, rate 0.75%, down from 2.00%

 

[ggr]

Even though the volume was low and allowed some apparent short manipulation of the price in late afternoon, we saw unusually high volume for the opening and closing minute of trading today with 220,000 shares and 97,000 shares traded, respectively.

* TSLA volume 2.8M shares

Que? According to Yahoo Finance, volume today was 7,245,175. E*Trade says 7,340,728 (I think that includes after hours till now). I agree that the late push down smells like shorts. I can't see why anyone would be taking profit late on a tuesday, unless there's news we don't know.

 

[Papafox]

Que? According to Yahoo Finance, volume today was 7,245,175. E*Trade says 7,340,728 (I think that includes after hours till now). I agree that the late push down smells like shorts. I can't see why anyone would be taking profit late on a tuesday, unless there's news we don't know.

Thanks for the info. My iphone app has given some flaky numbers lately on volume. Today was the first day I was tempted to use one because it looked somewhat reasonable. My bad. I was able to correct with Yahoo finance numbers in time on the original post. Yahoo has just become my volume source going forth. Thanks again, ggr!