Performance Model 3 Timeline

[ValueAnalyst]

The first Performance Model 3 delivery timing and the timeline to volume production have implications for:

1. 2Q18 ASP and gross margin
2. 3Q18 ASP and gross margin
3. Timing and timeline to volume production for subsequent products

Please feel free to share your thoughts below the poll.

Thanks!

 

[bdy0627]

I'm guessing the 2nd half of July since they have just started the line. I'm also particularly interested in just how many performance versions Tesla can produce in Q3 and Q4 since the demand will likely be there for as much as they can produce. If they can heavily skew towards performance versions along with the LR AWD configuration for these next 2 quarters, the ASP could approach $66-68k. That would be huge for revenue.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I'm guessing the 2nd half of July since they have just started the line. I'm also particularly interested in just how many performance versions Tesla can produce in Q3 and Q4 since the demand will likely be there for as much as they can produce. If they can heavily skew towards performance versions along with the LR AWD configuration for these next 2 quarters, the ASP could approach $66-68k. That would be huge for revenue.

Agreed on ASP, which is deeply underestimated by all bears and majority of bulls at this time.

On your pick of second half of July: My understanding was that production takes 8 to 12 days, followed by another one to two weeks for delivery, which would put first delivery to last week of June or first week of July. What am I missing?

 

[bdy0627]

Agreed on ASP, which is deeply underestimated by all bears and majority of bulls at this time.

On your pick of second half of July: My understanding was that production takes 8 to 12 days, followed by another one to two weeks for delivery, which would put first delivery to last week of June or first week of July. What am I missing?

I'm adding a few arbitrary weeks to tame expectations. It's certainly possible they could start deliveries by early July. It would be great if Elon could confirm with the Q2 deliveries announcement in early July that deliveries of performance 3s were starting immediately. I just think that's a little optimistic.

 

[MP3Mike]

Didn't Elon say that they were planning to have Performance Model 3s in Tesla stores for test drives by the end of the month? If so, that would likely mean that customer deliveries will start in early July.

OK I mis-remembered the tweet from June 2nd a little: "Model 3 Performance order page progressively rolling out to reservation holders over the next week or so. It’s a really great car. Not saying that lightly. Test drive is a mindwarp. Aiming to have these as our first test drive Model 3 cars in stores within 4 to 6 week’s." But 4 weeks would be June 30th... So I am going to stick with first deliveries start in the first half of July.

I think they are diverting production to Canada and stores for test drives to delay the 200,000th US delivery, which makes perfect sense.

 

[Firewired]

If I could just put my order in... I keep checking obsessively, but that hasn’t worked yet.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

If I could just put my order in... I keep checking obsessively, but that hasn’t worked yet.

Would you mind please updating this thread once you can along with your delivery estimate? Thank you.

 

[FlyNavy01]

I ordered May 23rd and it says 12-16 weeks for delivery. So far it's said that for all P and AWD configurations that I've seen.

Personally, I'm expecting my car mid/late August.

 

[bdy0627]

I ordered May 23rd and it says 12-16 weeks for delivery. So far it's said that for all P and AWD configurations that I've seen.

Personally, I'm expecting my car mid/late August.

This is a helpful data point. Thanks!

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Only one person voted for "Last week of June," and guess who that was

 

[MP3Mike]

Elon Musk on Twitter

Only one person voted for "Last week of June," and guess who that was

It hasn't been delivered yet... It could be a test drive vehicle.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

It hasn't been delivered yet... It could be a test drive vehicle.

I celebrate the W before the game ends, so that even if I lose, I've already celebrated Let's see when they deliver this puppy.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

The Crowd is set to win this time.

Elon Musk on Twitter "July"

 

[ValueAnalyst]

P Delivery -- Good News Thread

Second half of July wins.