Poll: 81% of Prospective Model 3 Owners Say They Won’t Pay Upfront For Full Self-Driving

[vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text]It seems most prospective Model 3 owners aren’t willing to shell out cash upfront for a $3,000 “full self-driving capability” option that is likely years away from becoming available to engage.

In a poll posted by jsraw 81.3% (347) of respondents said they will not pay for the feature at purchase. Adding the option later will cost an additional $1,000. Of respondents, 18.7% said they will pay for FSD upfront.

According to Tesla’s website, FSD “doubles the number of active cameras from four to eight, enabling full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at what we believe will be a probability of safety at least twice as good as the average human driver. The system is designed to be able to conduct short and long distance trips with no action required by the person in the driver’s seat. For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.”

Elon Musk has said that level 5 autonomous driving is possible with second generation Autopilot and the FSD option, meaning the car is fully autonomous in any and all conditions. During his TED talk in April, Musk said the company plans to conduct by the end of 2017 a coast-to-coast demo drive from California to New York without the driver touching the wheel.

Obviously, there will be regulatory hurdles ahead and Musk has said it will likely be two years before owners will be able to engage FSD capability.

See a few comments on the poll below, or go to the thread here.

Swift

EinSV

jason1466

Waiting4M3

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[JeffK]

So, in your mind, would the intermittent-FSD you describe still be entitled to use the unmitigated FSD name? (Note: You have identified absolutely no organizationally-accepted standard for FSD...)

You have two options EAP, which is highway/freeway and basically enhanced AP1 when it's finished and you have the FSD which is everything and anything above EAP. (whether it's actually FSD or not)

Hopefully that makes sense. It doesn't need to be full featured to be more than EAP but covered under the FSD upgrade.

 

[SkagitDoug]

What if, I chose the FSD option on my model 3 and it doesn't manifest soon, and I decide I want to move into a model S that doesn't have FSD either, is my option on the 3 transferable to that car? In fact, is my reservation on the model three transferable to someone who wants to get a car without waiting 2 years?

Tesla will not transfer a reservation, period.

 

[SkagitDoug]

You have two options EAP, which is highway/freeway and basically enhanced AP1 when it's finished and you have the FSD which is everything and anything above EAP. (whether it's actually FSD or not)

Hopefully that makes sense. It doesn't need to be full featured to be more than EAP but covered under the FSD upgrade.

As others have already stated, Jeff, FSD is a non-starter without regulatory approval. (That was why my vote was 'no' for FSD.)

Financially, the $3,000 up-front cost of non-operational FSD can be put to much better use.

 

[SkagitDoug]

This is really interesting. I'm really surprised by the poll results, there doesn't seem to be much confidence in it FSD, IMO self-driving is the and definitely my main reason to buy a Tesla.

But, you won't get to use FSD until regulators authorize its use...

 

[JeffK]

As others have already stated, Jeff, FSD is a non-starter without regulatory approval. (That was why my vote was 'no' for FSD.)

Financially, the $3,000 up-front cost of non-operational FSD can be put to much better use.

You are acting like it is all or nothing, we don't know that this is the case. If the car was to stop for stop signs and stop lights then it absolutely doesn't need regulatory approval ... obviously you'd still need to be in the car. This kind of a feature wouldn't be part of EAP so it must fall in the FSD category so you'd only get the feature if you purchased the FSD package.

 

[SkagitDoug]

But, you won't get to use FSD until regulators authorize its use...

And, Tesla will not enable FSD until its use has been authorized by Federal and State regulators.

 

[SkagitDoug]

And, Tesla will not enable FSD until its use has been authorized by Federal and State regulators.

You are acting like it is all or nothing, we don't know that this is the case. If the car was to stop for stop signs and stop lights then it absolutely doesn't need regulatory approval ... obviously you'd still need to be in the car. This kind of a feature wouldn't be part of EAP so it must fall in the FSD category so you'd only get the feature if you purchased the FSD package.

You are making presumptions about decisions that are not in your control. In addition, incorporating capabilities like stopping for signs and signals would create an incredible legal liability for any manufacturer. Your mention of SAE standards, Jeff, hints of a technical background. May I ask if that's the case?

 

[FalconFour]

<.< *looks around at thread*

Yeah, so I plan on getting FSD (that is, full self driving) with Autopilot on my car, that and paint, nothing more. No Premium, no extended battery, no wheels. Coming from a Leaf since 2012, range and performance is already beyond my wildest dreams. Supercharging is pay-per-use, no extra cost there (finally, someone gets it right).

When Tesla delivers on its dreams of full self-driving and car sharing, I want to be there at the bleeding edge. Being as I _know_ I want the feature, there is absolutely no use in waiting for it to be proven first. Heck, I would even love to help tune it in beta.

Whatever it consists of, I know I want all of it. And that means I buy it up front.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

And, Tesla will not enable FSD until its use has been authorized by Federal and State regulators.

Considering that their AP1 violated half the regulations in Europe and they still sold their models despite the regulators stating they`d have never approved of the system.....well
I´m actually really surprised they didn`t outright ban Tesla when their AP analysis was complete. I think at that point Tesla had already withdrawn a lot of features.

You are acting like it is all or nothing, we don't know that this is the case. If the car was to stop for stop signs and stop lights then it absolutely doesn't need regulatory approval ... obviously you'd still need to be in the car. This kind of a feature wouldn't be part of EAP so it must fall in the FSD category so you'd only get the feature if you purchased the FSD package.

Well at the moment anything beyond level 2 isn`t legally possible for most situations. And until that changes the hardware capabilities are limited to taking over in ~15sec intervals with you being legally bound to have your eyes on the street.

 

[jsrawa]

This thread has had some interesting responses lately. I can see how EAP and FSD are sensitive subjects to those who own a S/X and have purchased one or both, but there is some real negativity out there. I had planned to purchase FSD when I get my 3 but based on some good reasoning here I think I'm going to hold off and stick with only EAP. I have faith that Tesla will significantly improve at least EAP in the future, FSD just has too many hurdles for Tesla to clear during the time I will own the vehicle.

 

[JeffK]

You are making presumptions about decisions that are not in your control. In addition, incorporating capabilities like stopping for signs and signals would create an incredible legal liability for any manufacturer. Your mention of SAE standards, Jeff, hints of a technical background. May I ask if that's the case?

It is the case. Incorporating capabilities like stopping for signs and signals would not create a legal liability for any manufacturer if they qualify it with a warning that it's not completely self driving and the driver must remain in control at all times. It's the same as it is now with AP1/EAP until there's notice otherwise, it is the responsibility of the driver to be ready to take over at any time.

The rumor was that they would incorporate the stop sign/light feature with the user having to accelerate after the full stop. It may be just a rumor, but if they added such a feature it would immediately differentiate between EAP and FSD. Just like EAP and AP1, it's not wise to put your life blindly in the "hands" of the machine.

Elon said they are still on track for the end of the year or maybe shortly after for their FSD demo across the US. Elon also said it'd probably be another two years before you'd be able to sleep or read a book while letting FSD do the work. This means, there is likely a transition period where FSD features will be enabled making it semi self-driving but drivers are required for monitoring and still hold responsibility. Later, after regulatory approval, we might see driverless cars or fully autonomous cars as the technology improves.

These are the same steps being used by Cruise, Waymo, etc. They are all testing FSD cars with drivers onboard.

Well at the moment anything beyond level 2 isn`t legally possible for most situations. And until that changes the hardware capabilities are limited to taking over in ~15sec intervals with you being legally bound to have your eyes on the street.

Such a system as EAP + the ability to stop at stop signs or stoplights would not be considered level 3 so you're safe. If anything it's still ADAS.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Such a system as EAP + the ability to stop at stop signs or stoplights would not be considered level 3 so you're safe. If anything it's still ADAS.

level 3 means mind off for certain situations. It´s not about what the car can do, but what the driver doesn`t have to do.

Please consider that even something as primitive as traffic jam stop and go is still not legally allowed to be level 3, but requires you to be able to react any time.
Stop signs, traffic lights etc are MUCH more complicated and can cause major accidents if it`s not 100% correctly interpreted.
So even if it gets automated in some way this will require you to always verify the perceived reality of the car...basically making it useless.

the whole ap things is nonsense unless it gets to level 3 and higher because that`s the point where the driver actually gains freedom/time. Before that some people might "abuse" the systems and do stuff other than watching their car, but they have to understand that they`re illegally doing so and are 100% responsible for any accidents the system may cause.

 

[JeffK]

Stop signs, traffic lights etc are MUCH more complicated and can cause major accidents if it`s not 100% correctly interpreted.

Not at all, it's the same level of complication as stop and go traffic. It's even more simple if, as the rumor stated, the driver would be required to hit the accelerator to go again. I don't think AP is nonsense at all... like I said it's ADAS (advanced driver-assistance systems).
I know in Germany ... and even here in the US they think "autopilot" means it drives by itself, but that's not what the term means nor has it ever meant that in over 100 years of the existence of the term. It's there to assist, not take over 100% your responsibilities, at least yet....

The main goals of the first autopilots in aviation were to assist human pilots to maintain speed, altitude, and heading. Besides altitude which doesn't really apply, Tesla Autopilot and by extension EAP, has the same goals.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Not at all, it's the same level of complication as stop and go traffic.

A graffiti on the stop sign is enough to fool all current AP systems.... and HD maps to 100% know that a stop sign is here or there isn`t available yet for enough regions.... Same goes for traffic lights that aren`t 100% perfectly visible for example.....

optical recognition is much harder than when you "simply" need a 3d image of your surroundings.

And I´ll stick to my opinion that anything that`s below level 3 is useless. It´s just a gimmick. The driver doesn`t gain anything from it since he still has to focus on the road.

 

[JeffK]

A graffiti on the stop sign is enough to fool all current AP systems.... and HD maps to 100% know that a stop sign is here or there isn`t available yet for enough regions....

Yes, and because the driver is supposed to remain attentive, they would see this and take the appropriate action just as they would if regular autopilot was doing an incorrect action. It's a non-issue really.

You are not supposed to blindly trust it with your life. Not yet.

If dig up a stop sign it fools human drivers too... should humans not drive either?

 

[Phrixotrichus]

Yes, and because the driver is supposed to remain attentive, they would see this and take the appropriate action just as they would if regular autopilot was doing an incorrect action. It's a non-issue really.

You are not supposed to blindly trust it with your life. Not yet.

That´s the point.
What use does such a system have? the driver doesn`t gain anything from it. Worst case he even has to aggressivly correct fail-decisions of the system.

 

[sitter_k]

Wow so all the model 3 has to do is stop at stop signs and the will be promise kept for FSD? I'd feel a little cheated of i paid 3k IMHO....

 

[JeffK]

That´s the point.
What use does such a system have? the driver doesn`t gain anything from it. Worst case he even has to aggressively correct fail-decisions of the system.

All the other stop signs and stop lights would work fine... that's the benefit. In addition, I could train an image recognition system with stop signs with graffiti on them and tell the system they are stop signs... it's trivial and I'm sure they will eventually do that themselves. Even a simple decision tree would work. In the US, it's as simple as: Is it a sign? is it octagon shaped? Is there red showing? If yes to all those things, it's a stop sign.

Wow so all the model 3 has to do is stop at stop signs and the will be promise kept for FSD? I'd feel a little cheated of i paid 3k IMHO....

haha, well it could be a differentiator between FSD and EAP in the short term. Elon said the features would start to diverge soon, so far there's been nothing. If they showed some progress I think more people would bite on that $3k upsell.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

All the other stop signs and stop lights would work fine... that's the benefit. In addition, I could train an image recognition system with stop signs with graffiti on them and tell the system they are stop signs... it's trivial and I'm sure they will eventually do that themselves. Even a simple decision tree would work. In the US, it's as simple as: Is it a sign? is it octagon shaped? Is there red showing? If yes to all those things, it's a stop sign.

I´m a software developer myself and you seriously underestimate the complexity of those systems......
Nothing about this whole thing is trivial absolutely nothing!
Systems under heavy development for years and years can get thrown off by minor details.
............this is not a thing where errors are acceptable and I really don`t think you understand what it means to have a system that has to combine a wide range of sensor input data to a coherent and consistently 100% correct picture.

The somewhat naive image you have is "ok" for something like a photo-edit-program, it`s absolutely unacceptable for a system that`s steering a 2 ton vehicle. We don`t have room for errors in the industry.....
If i make a mistake some 10 bar pipe might kill someone, or if an autopilot makes a mistake it might cause a huge crash.

 

[Robipad]

Interesting discussion. I will definitely not buy FSD at this moment. Although FSD is one of the main reasons my T3 reservation in order to keep me and my wifes still independant life style. Seeïng at youtube the results of AP2 tests from several Tesla X/S owners (Erik, Björn) I really even doubt it is already worth to pay $5k for EAP. Instead of beïng a relieved driver you need to pay constantly attention to the car's behaviour in case suddenly road lines are missing or misinterpreted. Easier to use my own ap.