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Poll: Will Tesla invite in Q4/2019 majority of FSD Computer upgraders to schedule retrofits?

Will Tesla invite in Q4/2019 majority of FSD Computer upgraders to schedule retrofits?


  • Total voters
    61

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,412
Earth
Tesla is famously on record about the long-awaited HW3 or FSD Computer retrofits to FSD buyers happening in Q4/2019. The question here is, do you think that will happen?

I tried to be fair in how the question is posed: I am not asking about delays resulting from the customer not coming in or inability to find common ground on the actual retrofit date within Q4 or some minority of people not getting the invites for whatever reasons, just merely...

Do you think the majority of FSD buyers will get invited during Q4/2019 to schedule retrofits? By schedule I mean within regular, reasonable service scheduling times, like you would with a normal service appointment where a part may be on reasonable backorder.

I would also accept Yes being correct if this happens in the U.S. only given that the majority of Teslas are in the U.S. and HW3 features are expected to be rolled out first in the U.S. So please answer Yes also if you think Tesla will invite the majority in the U.S. to schedule, but not global customers.
 
Last edited:

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,412
Earth
I personally voted No, because I feel Tesla’s approach to FSD retrofits like pretty much to all their forward-looking promises is to keep the buck moving forward — maybe deliver a little something and then kick it down the road again.

Given this history, it seems too soon in the FSD Computer saga to move onto en retrofits en masse. More likely would be a minor second wave of retofits for PR reasons.

If Yes were to happen, I would expect it to mean invites at the end of quarter, with most retrofits happening during the next quarter.

I would be most surprised by majority invites going out with enough time to actually complete them within the quarter.

I hope I am surprised.
 
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boaterva

Supporting Member
Apr 2, 2016
7,567
3,739
Northern Virginia, USA
Just had our X (AP 2.5) in for stuff, no mention of AP3/HW3. Would have been a perfect time. They need to have a ton of the AP3 boards in circulation and then the extra time to commit to do it.

We just had our 3 take two days for an alignment and other small stuff because service is so backed up. Doubt they will start the AP upgrades until they know there is some feature really ready to roll out.

And I think that one car we know about that got it was a test of the process. As far as we know current software is still emulating for AP3, not optimized yet
 

JohnnyEnglish

Member
May 7, 2018
273
1,309
UK
Tesla is famously on record about the long-awaited HW3 or FSD Computer retrofits to FSD buyers happening in Q4/2019. The question here is, do you think that will happen?

I tried to be fair in how the question is posed: I am not asking about delays resulting from the customer not coming in or inability to find common ground on the actual retrofit date within Q4 or some minority of people not getting the invites for whatever reasons, just merely...

Do you think the majority of FSD buyers will get invited during Q4/2019 to schedule retrofits? By schedule I mean within regular, reasonable service scheduling times, like you would with a normal service appointment where a part may be on reasonable backorder.

I would also accept Yes being correct if this happens in the U.S. only given that the majority of Teslas are in the U.S. and HW3 features are expected to be rolled out first in the U.S. So please answer Yes also if you think Tesla will invite the majority in the U.S. to schedule, but not global customers.

Inextricably linked to the timing of the release of new FSD features that require HW3. I voted yes based on the following logic:
  • I think Tesla will want to release new FSD features in Q4 so that they can recognise the associated deferred revenue
  • I assume that they will not be able to recognise the deferred revenue for HW2 and HW2.5 vehicles until they are upgraded, therefore there is an incentive for Tesla to retrofit these vehicles.
 
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am_dmd

Member
Jan 29, 2017
297
304
PA
I think you should specify AP2 and AP2.5+ in "yes" column. I think AP2 will be forgotten soon as per Tesla's history.
 

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,412
Earth
I think you should specify AP2 and AP2.5+ in "yes" column. I think AP2 will be forgotten soon as per Tesla's history.

Fair point. That might be an interesting poll.

However, for the purposes of my poll, AP2 is irrelevant since I’m sure it is a significant minority of FSD buyers by now.

Personally I drive an AP2 car and do not believe they will leave us behind entirely but I do believe AP2 retrofits may be delayed even though fairness would put us first. But that’s not what I’m asking...

Basically what I’m asking is, do you guys believe Tesla will make a genuine effort to start volume retrofits of FSD Computer within their self-imposed deadline of Q4/2019... not will they reach everyone like some technology subset or market location.
 

boaterva

Supporting Member
Apr 2, 2016
7,567
3,739
Northern Virginia, USA
The AP3 quick swap is for AP2.5. That takes 30 minutes. I think that’s what we’re talking about mostly. We have no idea what an AP2.0 upgrade takes as it would involve camera replacement (side) and maybe windshield camera and radar, right? That’s much more involved.
 

ItsNotAboutTheMoney

Well-Known Member
Jul 12, 2012
10,640
7,809
Maine
It'll only retrofit the new computers when it's profitable to do so and it wouldn't be.

The current parts of FSD that it has partially delivered on, are the least important parts, and it hasn't delivered anything outside of EAP, so it can't credibly recognize any significant revenue from FSD.

2020Q1 will be a more critical quarter than 2019Q4, so I think that Tesla would want to recognize the revenue in that quarter, and in the unlikely event of Tesla being able to deliver substantial features for city driving, it would start retrofitting.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
9,588
28,365
Seattle, WA
I answered No, because
- Tesla is generally late ;)
- Tesla may not even start in EU before finishing in US
- Tesla simply may not be able to upgrade 100+ cars in a quarter (along with normal service, which itself is backed up now)
- Q1 is seasonally low sales quarter, so service staff may be less busy in Q1

My best guess is - they will "start" upgrades in volume in Q4 or Q1 '20.
 

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,412
Earth
- Tesla may not even start in EU before finishing in US
- Tesla simply may not be able to upgrade 100+ cars in a quarter (along with normal service, which itself is backed up now)

I would accept these as Yes, as said. U.S. only start would be relatively normal, as are normal scheduling delays, as long as they invite everyone to ask for their place in the service scheduling queue. So for me these are not reasons to answer No.
I answered No, because
- Tesla is generally late ;)
- Q1 is seasonally low sales quarter, so service staff may be less busy in Q1

My best guess is - they will "start" upgrades in volume in Q4 or Q1 '20.

I guess what really matters here is Tesla is generally late and their word about dates is usually worth nothing. I mean if Q4 is busy, why say Q4 when throwing around dates, why not say Q1 in the first place...
 

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,412
Earth
The poll results are perhaps surprisingly one-sided: 3 vs 20 at the moment.

One more angle: Tesla states on the Design Studio that Automatic city driving is expected later this year. That would probably have to mean an FSD Computer requiring update is also coming this year and for that they’d need to start the hardware upgrades.

If the upgrades really are just 30 minutes like people have been saying for a long time now, done by quick visits from the mobile service, and the cost is offset by revenue recognition, there should no reason why at least a significant amount of retrofits couldn’t happen this year.

The problem of course is that Tesla’s believability on stuff like this seems to be so shattered these days that it really is hard to take them at their word for this stuff.
 

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
7,818
9,153
Terre Haute, IN USA
I think that Tesla will at least start FSD computer retrofits for FSD owners in Q4 2019. The website has end of 2019 as a big deadline for 2 FSD features (traffic light response, automatic city driving). So it seems that Tesla has given itself end of 2019 as a key milestone for FSD. Not to mention that Elon has touted "feature complete" by end of 2019 and robotaxis in limited ares by end of 2020. So there is some pressure on Tesla to show some results soon. So I think it is likely that Tesla will start retrofits in Q4 and deliver traffic light response and some partial "automatic city driving" features by end of 2019 or Jan 2020, in order to show some progress on the FSD front.
 

boonedocks

MS LR Blk/Blk 19” OD-1/1/21 RN#1143376 NO Date
May 1, 2015
2,905
4,665
Gainesville GA
I think that Tesla will at least start FSD computer retrofits for FSD owners in Q4 2019. The website has end of 2019 as a big deadline for 2 FSD features (traffic light response, automatic city driving). So it seems that Tesla has given itself end of 2019 as a key milestone for FSD. Not to mention that Elon has touted "feature complete" by end of 2019 and robotaxis in limited ares by end of 2020. So there is some pressure on Tesla to show some results soon. So I think it is likely that Tesla will start retrofits in Q4 and deliver traffic light response and some partial "automatic city driving" features by end of 2019 or Jan 2020, in order to show some progress on the FSD front.

I love your optimism. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .....however.....past performance where Elon / Tesla are concerned in this kind instance is absolutely indicative of future performance.
 
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diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
7,818
9,153
Terre Haute, IN USA
I love your optimism. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ .....however.....past performance where Elon / Tesla are concerned in this kind instance is absolutely indicative of future performance.

Please note that I did not say that Tesla would complete all retrofits in Q4, merely that they would start them. I also did not say that Tesla would achieve all their end of 2019 FSD goals, merely that they have the goals and that they will feel some pressure to show some results.
 

boonedocks

MS LR Blk/Blk 19” OD-1/1/21 RN#1143376 NO Date
May 1, 2015
2,905
4,665
Gainesville GA
Please note that I did not say that Tesla would complete all retrofits in Q4, merely that they would start them. I also did not say that Tesla would achieve all their end of 2019 FSD goals, merely that they have the goals and that they will feel some pressure to show some results.

I know...I just don't believe, beyond a few vocal / celeb youtoubers, any real meaningful retro-fits will come by the end of the 4th quarter. But I do like your optimism... BTW Elon / Tesla setting goals hasn't compelled them to produce in the past...so there's that...
 

ramonneke

Active Member
Apr 26, 2018
3,589
2,060
Rotterdam
What would be easier then traffic light recognition? Traffic signs like sleep limits. Seems like we should be getting that feature first.

No, we are not getting any semi autonomous city driving features this year. Maybe some warnings but self driving/braking? No way! I'll bet 100 EUR and when I'll loose I'll send it to a charity or choice.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
9,588
28,365
Seattle, WA
I would accept these as Yes, as said. U.S. only start would be relatively normal, as are normal scheduling delays, as long as they invite everyone to ask for their place in the service scheduling queue. So for me these are not reasons to answer No.
I see no reason to create chaos by inviting everyone. I think they will do this the same way they slowly invited people to configure.

I guess what really matters here is Tesla is generally late and their word about dates is usually worth nothing. I mean if Q4 is busy, why say Q4 when throwing around dates, why not say Q1 in the first place...
Because then we'll have a poll as to whether they will invite majority of FSD buyers to upgrade in Q1 etc.

Seriously, they say Q4 because they want to do it in Q4. It is their target and internal goal. But they don't set easy targets ...

Ofcourse, they don't always miss either. Look at GF3. Well known Tesla critics were arguing it will take a long time for GF3 to start production - perhaps 5 or 6 years. But looks like it will start production within a year of breaking ground.
 

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,412
Earth
I see no reason to create chaos by inviting everyone. I think they will do this the same way they slowly invited people to configure.

Why would invitations cause any chaos? They could just do it via the app or web. People would be scheduled according to their place in the queue. They could also easily implement a priority (date of purchase) based scheduling. Schedule now, get a date into to the future as necessary, same as with custom orders they used to do.

And so many people have said the retrofits are an easy 30 minutes by the mobile service anyway. Why would this be hard all of a sudden?

Where there is a will, there is a way.
Because then we'll have a poll as to whether they will invite majority of FSD buyers to upgrade in Q1 etc.

Really? You and I both know Tesla could be more realistic in their public schedules yet you make it sound like it is the fault of people holding them to their word. Q4/2019 is not the first date that has been suggested for FSD retrofits either...
Seriously, they say Q4 because they want to do it in Q4. It is their target and internal goal. But they don't set easy targets ...

The Q4 has not been communicated to us as a target, let alone an internal goal. In fact it has been communicated to us as something that was used to appease and motivate FSD buyers. If you know it isn’t a realistic date, you give a realistic date range. If you don’t know when, you say you don’t know when... and if say something and it turns out you are wrong, you provide timely guidance to the contrary instead of silence.

This would have served Elon well in the ”pedo” case too, judging by the latest court papers. Instead he tends to double down on whatever claim there is, until he can no more. It thus seems plausible Tesla’s leadership believes misleading statements serve a purpose.
UIKeyInputDownArrowOfcourse, they don't always miss either. Look at GF3. Well known Tesla critics were arguing it will take a long time for GF3 to start production - perhaps 5 or 6 years. But looks like it will start production within a year of breaking ground.

I am talking about announcements that affect customers that have paid money, where commitments have been made to customers. Tesla should be extra careful with those announcements especially with their history. I would agree their focus has always been the stock market and they are losing customer loyalty in the process because it is all about the quarters. Luckily for them so far they are making it up with new customers like @diplomat33. ;)
 

diplomat33

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2017
7,818
9,153
Terre Haute, IN USA
Luckily for them so far they are making it up with new customers like @diplomat33. ;)

Yes, and if you look at deliveries, Model 3 owners vastly outnumber Model S owners. The unfortunate reality is that Tesla has less and less of a business motive to appeal to the older Model S owners because they are quickly becoming the minority. Although, I certainly hope and want Tesla to honor their older customers who were so instrumental in making Tesla what it is today. Tesla would not exist without those first AP1 owners.
 

electronblue

Active Member
Oct 1, 2018
2,325
2,412
Earth
Tesla would not exist without those first AP1 owners.

What... are you forgetting the first pre-AP1 Classic owners? Or the Roadster? ;) (Arguably though Tesla did take care of the Roadster, it was a different company pre-2014 D-A launch.)
Yes, and if you look at deliveries, Model 3 owners vastly outnumber Model S owners. The unfortunate reality is that Tesla has less and less of a business motive to appeal to the older Model S owners because they are quickly becoming the minority. Although, I certainly hope and want Tesla to honor their older customers who were so instrumental in making Tesla what it is today.

I’m not talking about Model S/X, though. I am talking about there still being enough new owners to offset any loss of customer satisfaction or loyalty on the other end. There are plenty of disgruntled Model 3 owners too, like J Savolainen (@Savolainen_J) | Twitter and his over 1000 group members with paint issues.

It is the next sale that matters at Tesla. Luckily there is a lot of untapped market out there. :)
 

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