I'm not sure I'd use the word 'Valuable'. Every reservation holder should know by now that Model 3's won't be delivered in reservation sequence. Not even close. Employees, Highly Optioned, Geography. It might be a distant 4th, and even then it is questionable as Tesla disclaimed sequencing as being "at their discretion". Base Model? Once the "Highly Optioned" are burned through. History is proof of that.
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I'm not sure I'd use the word 'Valuable'. Every reservation holder should know by now that Model 3's won't be delivered in reservation sequence. Not even close. Employees, Highly Optioned, Geography. It might be a distant 4th, and even then it is questionable as Tesla disclaimed sequencing as being "at their discretion". Base Model? Once the "Highly Optioned" are burned through. History is proof of that.
I purchased mine on 03/31 around 10AM in Southern California and my number is 388xxx.
MrLunch
Member
There may be an issue with the idea of that reservation detail.. I made a Model S in the Design Studio about 6 months before the Model 3 launch and I already have a common_reservation_id for that car even tho I never paid for the vehicle or anything other than "saved" it to MyTesla. That common_reservation number is 312XXX.
brandude87
Member
As of end of March, Tesla had delivered 122K cars globally since inception, and probably around 25K since then, so about 147K. I'm not sure how many cancellations they've had, but let's say it's around 10%, so that would bring the number to 163K (147/0.90). So that would mean there were 200K in pre-orders for Model S/X at the time of the Model 3 reveal. This does seem high. I don't really have any reference, but I couldn't imagine a backlog larger than ~50K for Model S/X right now. Anyone else have any ideas why the Model 3 reservation ID seems to have started at around 363K in Melbourne, Australia, and not something closer to 200K?
The value comes in the deltas. We could know how many reservations there are (S+X+3) at any given time. By taking the difference between any 2 dates we can see the rate that reservations are coming in, a valuable metric for investing.
I made a chart from the reservation google page:
Or, if we assume that the first datapoint at 355k was the starting point, the chart becomes a defacto proxy for model 3 reservations:
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I'm not sure how much info can be gleaned from this number, but my reservation sequence for my original Model S was in the 12 thousands, and my common_reservation_id was in the 22 thousands. My model 3 reservation_id is in the 400 thousands. Given one of the posts above it looks like a global count that increments even when somebody just configures and saves a Tesla of any type to mytesla. I'm not sure how useful it is.
Ordered 3/31/16 at about 2:30 Mountain time in Denver. common_reservation_id is 398XXX.
Also: My Model S is serial #527XX, and its common_reservation_id is 135XXX.
Also: My Model S is serial #527XX, and its common_reservation_id is 135XXX.
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DrManhattan
Member
There may be some correlation, but it's not totally true. I ordered 3/31 at around 2:30pm and my number is 533xxx. Obviously doesn't make sense since a TON of people have earlier numbers that ordered after me.
Except as somebody points out above even a saved S or X configuration without paying any money gets a reservation_id. I could create 20 right now. I did in fact just create a saved Model S config for fun and got a reservation_id of 778734.
DrManhattan
Member
Also not sure how valuable this is, since Model S owners have priority, then premium orders, then West Coast, etc. The numbers might mean SOMETHING, but I don't think the data is very helpful.
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