Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

So I'm reading through this report and something dawned on me...maybe my thinking is not correct, but this is mostly based on 39 years of hourly energy demand from fossil fuel generation which produces a lot of wasted heat. So these past hourly demands are actually higher than they could be in the future (with more energy from renewables) and therefore these results could be better than suggested? ..........

The hourly demands is based on the _output_, so no.

But in terms of the effect on fossil _energy_ use, it should be outsized.

Fossil generation is lossy, so, if directly displaced, it would reduce energy input by renewable_generation/fossil_efficiency.

Also, because solar and wind EROIs are estimated to be well above 2, if their output can be fed back into energy input for renewables, you effectively have exponential displacement over multiple lifespans.
E.g.
You use 1 unit of fossil energy to feed a 10:1 renewable system.
With the 10 units of renewable energy
- use 1 unit of energy (assuming no improvement in efficiency) to replace the renewable system
- use half (5) units of energy for other uses
- use the other 4 units of energy to build 4 more renewable systems
You now have 5 renewable systems generating 50 units of energy, and displaced 5 other units of energy.
Repeat and each lifespan generates and displaces 5 times the amount of energy.

This is why achieving cost reductions that lead to renewable electricity being the energy of choice for more sectors are so important. Every sector that it's used in can help accelerate the process.

 

[eevee-fan]

New Atlas: Rooftop system converts CO2, water and sunlight into kerosene.
Rooftop system converts CO2, water and sunlight into kerosene

Time for kerosene powered ICE cars with home refueling? LOL

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

New Atlas: Rooftop system converts CO2, water and sunlight into kerosene.
Rooftop system converts CO2, water and sunlight into kerosene

Time for kerosene powered ICE cars with home refueling? LOL

Don't you love headline writers? Their test system generated methanol.
About 0.0086 gallons in a day using 5kW of panels, with 7 hours of intermittent sunlight.
16.62kWh/gal for methanol.
0.14kWh of energy.
We'd have to be really desperate to remove CO2 from the atmosphere.

 

[mspohr]

World urged to slash gas use by a third to avoid climate disaster

The escalating rollout of gas for heating, electricity and cooking is turning it into the “new coal” and its use worldwide must be slashed by nearly a third this decade to avoid disastrous climate effects, according to a new report.

Natural gas is not a bridging fuel. It is a fossil fuel,” said Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics and lead author of the new report. “Gas is the new coal. Governments, investors and the financial sector must treat it the same way as they do coal: phase it out as soon as possible.”

 

[mspohr]

I adjust the pitch of my panels from 15° around the summer solstice to 55° around the winter solstice. They are currently at 45° and snow does stick to the panels at any pitch up to 65°. In my small scale home system I just pull the snow off with a window squeegee on a long painter's pole.

For a parking lot shade canopy it would be necessary to wait for the snow to warm up and slide off in the sun. Snow would definitely reduce production in colder snowy climates, as it does on houses. If it is too cloudy to allow the panels to warm up so the snow slides off, the solar production wouldn't amount to much anyway.

I have a similar situation in the Sierras. Snow sticks to panels at an angle but only for a day or two. I do lose some winter production but it's a small portion of an already small generation. Nothing compared to the high production of the other eight months of the year.

 

[eevee-fan]

Why investing in renewables fast, not gradually, makes costs drop

The road to cheaper, cleaner energy is a fast lane, not a slow adoption — and there’s a simple economic explanation

www.salon.com

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Why investing in renewables fast, not gradually, makes costs drop

The road to cheaper, cleaner energy is a fast lane, not a slow adoption — and there’s a simple economic explanation

www.salon.com

Modi has been trying to build India's PV sector, but also using the coal sector for political support.
The PV manufacturing has grown, but the sector's re-investment hasn't been great.
This could be a play to be the country to displace China as the world's PV manufacturer.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

World urged to slash gas use by a third to avoid climate disaster

The escalating rollout of gas for heating, electricity and cooking is turning it into the “new coal” and its use worldwide must be slashed by nearly a third this decade to avoid disastrous climate effects, according to a new report.

Natural gas is not a bridging fuel. It is a fossil fuel,” said Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics and lead author of the new report. “Gas is the new coal. Governments, investors and the financial sector must treat it the same way as they do coal: phase it out as soon as possible.”

It's going to happen.

We've been in a period where the coal to gas transition has been faster than gas to renewable transition and for that and other reasons natural gas use has grown.
But we're _very_ close to or at the point where renewable growth is overtaking natural gas growth in electricity generation, so now the fight has the natural gas sector lobbying to slow down or prevent the electrification of heating.

As an UK ex-pat, I look at what's happening there.
In 2024/2025 is set to stop new natural gas hookups on homes, so there's a bunch of innovation around electric heating.
The UK is planning to add a massive amount of offshore wind generation which will finally reduce the amount of natural gas electricity generation.
The current natural gas price crisis there also has also brought into stronger focus the inefficiency of the existing housing stock.
The high prices are also having an impact on electricity prices, and that brings some renewed focus to PV+battery, and obviously encourages cheaper renewables.
So there could be some very interesting developments there this decade.

Although the lobbying can make things harder, ideas now spread fast.

 

[SageBrush]

Although the lobbying can make things harder, ideas now spread fast.

I just read about Guyana. The country is mostly below sea level and they get a (submerged) front porch view of the ravages of climate change. Through 2015 Guyana was the poster child for addressing climate change.

And then massive off-shore oil reserves were discovered. Their PM was at COP26 this week, saying that Guyana would exploit the resource as fast and furious as they could manage. Not out of climate change denial -- far from it. But because they want the money for mitigation on one hand, and because it does them no good to keep their oil in the ground while other countries do not.

That pretty much sums up the AGW conundrum in a nutshell, even before bad actors (looking at you, Exxon et al) and psychopaths (looking at you, trump et al) get involved.

 

[eevee-fan]

If this works... Solar Cells, Half Off

We should reach this goal ahead of time... DOE Announces Goal to Cut Solar Costs by More than Half by 2030

Very exciting!

 

[eevee-fan]

This Colorado community was proof an all-electric, net-zero future is possible. Now that vision is under siege | CNN

A new developer took over and upended this net-zero community when it announced natural gas lines would be installed in the newest homes, shattering the dreams of current residents.

www.cnn.com

Looks like some socialist community. Offset homes to ensure everyone gets maximum solar energy?!? How dare they? LOL

This is pretty amazing being in Colorado... I would have thought we would see 100% solar in the coastal area first.

 

[Dave EV]

No, it is being curtailed because of fossil contracts

Well, that's dumb. But they also signed a bunch of solar contracts, too. So which one wins when rooftop solar can't be turned down?

Any references to the contracts in question?

I have to wonder if a carbon tax could make it cheaper to pay the fossil contracts NOT to burn.

 

[eevee-fan]

New Atlas: Plants with electronic roots act as energy storage devices.

Plants with electronic roots act as energy storage devices

An interesting new research project out of Sweden's Linköping University has demonstrated how plant roots can be used as energy storage devices. The scientists see the process, which requires the plants to be watered with a special solution to make their roots electrically conductive, as as…

newatlas.com

... wonder how this would act in lightning storms.

 

[SageBrush]

This Colorado community was proof an all-electric, net-zero future is possible. Now that vision is under siege | CNN

A new developer took over and upended this net-zero community when it announced natural gas lines would be installed in the newest homes, shattering the dreams of current residents.

www.cnn.com

Looks like some socialist community. Offset homes to ensure everyone gets maximum solar energy?!? How dare they? LOL
This is pretty amazing being in Colorado... I would have thought we would see 100% solar in the coastal area first.

You may wish to read the full article

 

[mspohr]

Comic Relief Department: Shell CEO Says The Best Way To Finance Clean Energy Is To Consume More Oil - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Originally posted on EVANNEX. By Charles Morris A few years ago, when electric vehicles were considered an R&D project, the fossil fuel interests had little to say about them. Now that Tesla has grown to...

cleantechnica.com

I’ve seen some pretty laughable stuff, and I’m sure you have too, but this takes the cake. Ben van Beurden, Chief Executive of Royal Dutch Shell, told the BBC in a recent interview that his company wants to transition to net zero by 2050, but it will need the income from its oil and gas business to pay for it.

Even if we leave aside the question of whether hydrogen is anything other than a new market for oil and gas, this is the sort of argument that a philosophy textbook might use as an example of sophistry, circular reasoning, or any of various logical fallacies. It’s also the kind of argument that alcoholics and drug addicts use to justify one final binge.

Big Oil doesn’t just want a seat at the table, it wants to own the table, and control the discussion. At the recent COP26 conference, there were 503 delegates from fossil fuel companies — more than the largest delegation from any country. They’re using the same arguments we’ve heard from cigarette companies and drug-makers, shifting the blame to the consumers who use their products (because they have no other choice), meanwhile mounting massive campaigns of greenwashing and gaslighting to convince consumers and policymakers that it’s okay to keep burning billions of barrels of oil and gas.

 

[eevee-fan]

The New Republic: The Best Way to Fight Inflation: Ditch Fossil Fuels.

The Best Way to Fight Inflation: Ditch Fossil Fuels

The oil and gas industry and its Republican allies claim that climate policies are driving prices higher. That’s not the case.

newrepublic.com

Renewables with the utility ppa is definitely keeping prices more stable in Nevada during this period of NG price spike.

 

[ThomasD]

I don't know if it is a good idea to have goats wandering the neighborhood Only 8 hours of battery backup just doesn't seem like it would be enough

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't know if it is a good idea to have goats wandering the neighborhood Only 8 hours of battery backup just doesn't seem like it would be enough

The goats aren't wandering the neighborhood. The photo clearly shows they have them fenced into an area they're "mowing".
Grazing animals are used in a number of places where it's cheaper and cleaner than employing standard lawn care companies.

When you focus on efficiency from the start, you can dramatically reduce energy demand. That's the great tragedy of the housing industry.

 

[eevee-fan]

With peak use usually during summer daylight hours, looks like more reason for local production, as in rooftop solar.

EIA: Major US utilities spending more on electricity delivery, less on power production - Today in Energy - US Energy Information Administration.
Major U.S. utilities spending more on electricity delivery, less on power production - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

 

[mspohr]

With peak use usually during summer daylight hours, looks like more reason for local production, as in rooftop solar.

EIA: Major US utilities spending more on electricity delivery, less on power production - Today in Energy - US Energy Information Administration.
Major U.S. utilities spending more on electricity delivery, less on power production - Today in Energy - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

Interesting that delivery costs as much as the power.
Probably need to unbundle so that costs can allocated fairly.