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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

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And all solar farms are oversized, so the economics are already pushing hybrid solar.

And it is becoming a must have nowadays, just look at the ramp into the evening.
 

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Those crazy Aussies are at it again:

I particularly like to follow the Australian electricity grid (via reneweconomy), and the South Australia grid in particular. They are the ones pushing out the frontier on exactly how a large (gigawatt scale) grid operates strictly via renewables. According to this article 64% of electricity over the last year was wind / solar, with the state having a target of 100% net renewables by 2030. With their progress I sort of expect they achieve that by 2025.
 
Those crazy Aussies are at it again:

I particularly like to follow the Australian electricity grid (via reneweconomy), and the South Australia grid in particular. They are the ones pushing out the frontier on exactly how a large (gigawatt scale) grid operates strictly via renewables. According to this article 64% of electricity over the last year was wind / solar, with the state having a target of 100% net renewables by 2030. With their progress I sort of expect they achieve that by 2025.

One more nail in the coffin of the 'base-load' myth.
 
Decided to post this here rather than the Shorting Oil thread in the investors forum (I'll add a link over there). Some basic / primer info regarding the various kinds of crude oil, and turning them into economically valuable products, that I think at least some will find fascinating (I know that I did :D).

Different kinds of crude - very high level.
I believe that the 4 kinds of oil discussed here are 4 kinds of oil that crude is separated into at the start of the refining process - the article didn't make this as clear as it could. I know that there isn't crude oil that is only any 1 of those oils.

Octane number.
I didn't know what precisely octane means. Now I do!

This primer - A 35ish page more detailed description of the various processes that go on within a refinery that yield the various finished products. This is written for interested amateurs such as myself - not for petroleum engineers (shocking I know - reading a 35 page overview isn't the same as getting a master's degree).


Observations.

An ah-hah for me is that pretty much everything we experience personally is a blend of a variety of refined streams within the refinery. There isn't a stream of gasoline, for instance, until the end when several things get blended together to get the right chemical characteristics of "gasoline".

Generally speaking the less refinery processes needed to convert a barrel of crude to the economically desirable products (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel) the more valuable that barrel of crude is (by lowering the cost of the refinery that can get it there). Similarly - the more capital $$ one is willing to spend on the refinery, the lower quality / cost of crude that can be purchased to use as the feedstock. Therefore there is a balance being struck at every refinery between capital spent on different processes and the cost of available crude in the region.

WTI and Brent crude are both light, sweet crudes - generally speaking the most valuable as they are less dense (higher proportion of the gasoline end of the range) and have lower sulfur content. The detailed primer gets into those details in a way that makes sense to me.

Refineries are different from each other. The mix of units/processes to handle different inputs leads to a target mix of crude oil feedstock. It looks to me like the higher end refineries can process anything, but they won't process just anything in an optimal fashion - they still have a range and a target feedstock.

As a result crude oil from anywhere in the world doesn't substitute directly for crude oil from anywhere else, at any particular refinery. There is some ability to substitute by blending crudes from different sources.
 
Hope for hydrogen?

 
Hope for hydrogen?

Renewable based seasonal energy storage. The holy grail endgame of storing cheap curtailed solar power for use during the winter. Electrify everything.

RT
 
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If this high efficiency electrolyzer is really commercialized it will also allow things like renewable synthetic drop-in fuels to become commercially viable alternative to liquid fossil fuels. Just imagine if we could use today's aircraft with renewable carbon neutral fuel at similar prices to fossil jet fuel.
 
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If this high efficiency electrolyzer is really commercialized it will also allow things like renewable synthetic drop-in fuels to become commercially viable alternative to liquid fossil fuels. Just imagine if we could use today's aircraft with renewable carbon neutral fuel at similar prices to fossil jet fuel.

And I wonder if there'd still the same need to truck in hydrogen. The fueling stations can produce their own hydrogen by drawing grid power and water. Less hauling of stuff back and forth is another plus, for traffic and for environment.
 
And I wonder if there'd still the same need to truck in hydrogen. The fueling stations can produce their own hydrogen by drawing grid power and water. Less hauling of stuff back and forth is another plus, for traffic and for environment.
Right. Imagine a truck stop in the middle of nowhere with a field of solar panels, air capture, electrolysis, and carbon neutral fuel dispensing. Since you're already capturing CO2 from the air, you could probably condense a significant portion of the required water out of the air too. Hmmmm....? viable?
 
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And I wonder if there'd still the same need to truck in hydrogen. The fueling stations can produce their own hydrogen by drawing grid power and water. Less hauling of stuff back and forth is another plus, for traffic and for environment.
Electrolysis is only part of the inefficiency of H2. Compression and transport are significant. If that can be eliminated by making H2 where it's needed, it would help. It's a lot easier to transport electricity than H2.
 
Electrolysis is only part of the inefficiency of H2. Compression and transport are significant. If that can be eliminated by making H2 where it's needed, it would help. It's a lot easier to transport electricity than H2.
Compression will always be an issue with FCEV until and unless those vehicles move away from high pressure storage and change to some kind of low pressure storage like adsorption that has been tested in labs for years but has no commercial deployment. This is why I am a proponent of syn-fuels. You can take that energy that would be used for compression and use it to make a more stable compound like ammonia, methane, or longer chain liquid hyrdrocarbons.
 
Compression will always be an issue with FCEV until and unless those vehicles move away from high pressure storage and change to some kind of low pressure storage like adsorption that has been tested in labs for years but has no commercial deployment. This is why I am a proponent of syn-fuels. You can take that energy that would be used for compression and use it to make a more stable compound like ammonia, methane, or longer chain liquid hyrdrocarbons.
The problem with syn-fuels is that you have to add carbon to the hydrogen and that carbon is released with burned.
 
The problem with syn-fuels is that you have to add carbon to the hydrogen and that carbon is released with burned.
I think it's a fair trade as long as the carbon is taken from the environment (air or ocean) and not from underground where it's currently sequestered. That's why it's called carbon-neutral and not zero carbon or zero emission.
 

Rich countries must end all oil and gas production in the next 12 years, while the poorest nations should be given 28 years, to provide a fair transition away from fossil fuels, according to a study.

The report examines each country’s wealth and how dependent its economy is on fossil fuel production. It found that many poorer countries would be crippled economically and politically by a rapid move away from oil and gas, while wealthier nations could afford to end fossil fuel production while remaining relatively prosperous.
 
Yahoo Finance: Tesla Could Play a Big Role in Restructuring the US Energy Grid, Says Morgan Stanley.

... you think? LOL
 
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Even before the current conflict in Ukraine, Krynytskyi, the Ukrainian activist, was wary of nuclear energy. His environmental group has historically pushed to phase out both fossil fuels and nuclear energy. Ukraine is more reliant on nuclear power than nearly any other nation in the world. But the nuclear power plants that supply about half the nation’s electricity are now at unprecedented risk. Its largest plant, Zaporizhzhia, has already survived Russian shelling. Fires have reportedly also broken out at Zaporizhzhia, and Chernobyl, already the site of the worst nuclear power plant disaster in history — both of which have been seized by Russia.

“When the whole country and the whole world is shaking, thinking about what will happen in Ukraine with nuclear power plants,” Krynytskyi says. “Look what can happen here. You need to phase it out.”