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Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

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Something remarkable happened over the weekend: California hit nearly 95% renewable energy. I’ll say it again: 95% renewables. For all the time we spend talking about how to reach 100% clean power, it sometimes seems like a faraway proposition, whether the timeframe is California’s 2045 target or President Biden’s more aggressive 2035 goal. But on Saturday just before 2:30 p.m., one of the world’s largest economies came within a stone’s throw of getting thereSomething remarkable happened over the weekend: California hit nearly 95% renewable energy. I’ll say it again: 95% renewables. For all the time we spend talking about how to reach 100% clean power, it sometimes seems like a faraway proposition, whether the timeframe is California’s 2045 target or President Biden’s more aggressive 2035 goal. But on Saturday just before 2:30 p.m., one of the world’s largest economies came within a stone’s throw of getting there
I’ve avoided writing too much about the Western EIM (acronym alert!) because it gets very wonky, very fast. But it’s absolutely worth knowing about. It’s a unique program that makes it easier for utility companies across the American West to share extra electricity, with a goal of saving money for ratepayers (i.e. you and me) and reducing planet-warming emissions. How does it work? As I explained in a 2017 deep dive for the Desert Sun, the program allows out-of-state utilities to participate in California’s real-time electricity market, where they can buy power to fill in last-minute gaps between supply and demand.I’ve avoided writing too much about the Western EIM (acronym alert!) because it gets very wonky, very fast. But it’s absolutely worth knowing about. It’s a unique program that makes it easier for utility companies across the American West to share extra electricity, with a goal of saving money for ratepayers (i.e. you and me) and reducing planet-warming emissions. How does it work? As I explained in a 2017 deep dive for the Desert Sun, the program allows out-of-state utilities to participate in California’s real-time electricity market, where they can buy power to fill in last-minute gaps between supply and demand.
The program is growing so fast in part because of the measurable economic benefits. Through the end of 2020, participants collectively saved nearly $1.2 billion. Mainzer told me another $101 million in savings accrued in the first quarter of this year.

I think UK had hit 100% this past year. It's amazing how much progress has been made. Neither the industry nor the folks at EIA saw it coming. The fossil fuel industry is taking notice, though, very obvious attempt to stifle renewables growth in TX.
 
I think UK had hit 100% this past year. It's amazing how much progress has been made. Neither the industry nor the folks at EIA saw it coming. The fossil fuel industry is taking notice, though, very obvious attempt to stifle renewables growth in TX.
The 100% was on a holiday during COVID. People could get paid to use electricity.

Still more offshore wind being added. Offshore wind isn't cheap, but it's no longer extraordinarily expensive, and of course the Hinckley Point C debacle has gone on so long that new offshore wind is cheaper than new new nuclear.

Onshore wind is still the cheapest new source there, but there are more barriers to new onshore wind than there used to be. New onshore wind essentially stopped for several years. Restrictions have been eased, but I don't think it's picked up. Germany also has barriers to new onshore wind.

As well as wanting offshore wind costs to continue to fall there are still three significant improvements needed for renewables:
1) Cheap battery storage
2) Floating turbine technology costs to fall closer to fixed offshore to expand offshore wind zones.
3) Dual-layer solar to fall in cost to help economics in areas with less available solar, which would help with winter generation and lowering residential solar costs.
 
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The 100% was on a holiday during COVID. People could get paid to use electricity.

The UK isn't going to stop. Still more offshore wind being added. Offshore wind isn't cheap, but it's no longer extraordinarily expensive. Onshore wind is still the cheapest source there, but as with many places, there are barriers to deployment.

Correct, still need to convert home heating to electric so still a long way to being zero emission...
 
100% RE instantaneous is awesome, but real challenges are ahead when we approach 40-50% annual average, especially in other areas of the country. I’ve been reading a +200pp MISO study where additional HVDC interconnections, batteries, and frequency/balancing electronics are needed after about 30% annual average RE. Furthermore, a mix of wind and solar is better than just one. California is “lucky” because of existing connections to WA & BC hydro (essentially massive battery storage & rotating generators). CA seems to now be adding solar preferentially to wind, so the future may require more east-west interconnections (across time zones) as well as massive storage. The MISO study points to early morning Jan/Feb and late evening July/Aug as the biggest risk times for grid reliability. Given last year’s fires, the biggest CA risks may be concentrated in Sept-Dec.
 
100% RE instantaneous is awesome, but real challenges are ahead when we approach 40-50% annual average, especially in other areas of the country. I’ve been reading a +200pp MISO study where additional HVDC interconnections, batteries, and frequency/balancing electronics are needed after about 30% annual average RE. Furthermore, a mix of wind and solar is better than just one. California is “lucky” because of existing connections to WA & BC hydro (essentially massive battery storage & rotating generators). CA seems to now be adding solar preferentially to wind, so the future may require more east-west interconnections (across time zones) as well as massive storage. The MISO study points to early morning Jan/Feb and late evening July/Aug as the biggest risk times for grid reliability. Given last year’s fires, the biggest CA risks may be concentrated in Sept-Dec.

CleanTechnica: NREL Study Uncovers Counterintuitive Relationship Between Flexibility Options & Curtailment in Power Systems with High Solar Penetration.
NREL Study Uncovers Counterintuitive Relationship Between Flexibility Options & Curtailment in Power Systems with High Solar Penetration

BTW, TX is big into wind but is now going big with solar. Got the fossil fuel industry all scared. Variability is a concern. If only they would interconnect to either the East or Western grid or maybe even both.
 
End of an era: closure of nuclear plant is pointer for New York’s energy future
America’s energy past and future was on display on Friday at Indian Point, a nuclear plant 25 miles north of New York City that has been producing electricity since 1962. Don't believe hydrogen and nuclear hype – they can’t get us to net zero carbon by 2050 | Jonathon Porritt At 11am the last of the ageing plant’s reactor turbines shut down, ending a long political standoff. At the same time, wind and sun over the Hudson River alongside the plant pointed to the state’s energy future. Environmentalists and politicians have described the plant as a threat to millions. Many welcomed the closure.America’s energy past and future was on display on Friday at Indian Point, a nuclear plant 25 miles north of New York City that has been producing electricity since 1962At 11am the last of the ageing plant’s reactor turbines shut down, ending a long political standoff. At the same time, wind and sun over the Hudson River alongside the plant pointed to the state’s energy future. Environmentalists and politicians have described the plant as a threat to millions. Many welcomed the closure.
More than 20 large-scale renewable energy projects will be under construction this year. Cuomo has promised 70% renewables by 2030 and 100% a decade later.
The nuclear industry failed to become a viable solution for carbon-free electricity generation,” he said, noting that of four Obama-era approved plants, two have been abandoned and two are behind schedule and over-budget. “Nuclear is an expensive way to generate carbon-free electricity when there are viable new alternatives. It’s cheaper today to build out renewable generation than it is to continue to operate 40-year-old nuclear power plants.”
 
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The nuclear industry failed to become a viable solution for carbon-free electricity generation,” he said, noting that of four Obama-era approved plants, two have been abandoned and two are behind schedule and over-budget. “Nuclear is an expensive way to generate carbon-free electricity when there are viable new alternatives. It’s cheaper today to build out renewable generation than it is to continue to operate 40-year-old nuclear power plants.”

That’s the big summary. Note that the previous administration did nothing for nuclear. Hopefully, this one will push for more RE and, more importantly, get multiple east-West HVDC connections in place across the country to move that RE across time zones.
 
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“Nuclear is an expensive way to generate carbon-free electricity when there are viable new alternatives. It’s cheaper today to build out renewable generation than it is to continue to operate 40-year-old nuclear power plants.”

Ontario Canada has not learned the lesson, politics (half a million votes) drives the Nuclear power industry here.

Our power will increase in price from 5c/kWh to 9c now and estimates of 15c/kWh when the >$20B refurbishment is complete (along with delays and cost overruns).

Meanwhile, the conservative government led by the crack smoking mayor (the now-dead Rob Ford) of Toronto's brother ripped wind turbines from the ground that were already installed when he came into power appeasing NIMBY voters, costing $300M. The cost of the newest wind, 6.5c/kWh negotiated contracts, which were also ripped up.

Cost is not a driving factor in some places, votes are.
 
Ontario Canada has not learned the lesson, politics (half a million votes) drives the Nuclear power industry here.

Our power will increase in price from 5c/kWh to 9c now and estimates of 15c/kWh when the >$20B refurbishment is complete (along with delays and cost overruns).

Meanwhile, the conservative government led by the crack smoking mayor (the now-dead Rob Ford) of Toronto's brother ripped wind turbines from the ground that were already installed when he came into power appeasing NIMBY voters, costing $300M. The cost of the newest wind, 6.5c/kWh negotiated contracts, which were also ripped up.

Cost is not a driving factor in some places, votes are.

Conservatives are about job creation. Maybe when the electorates get wise and switch parties, there will be more jobs created to put the wind turbine back in place. LOL
 
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How fitting, we are literally between a rock and a hard place.

And we can collect CO2 from the air to make more basalt rocks, if that ever becomes a problem for a very abundant resource.
 
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Nice! Brand new apartment with EV charging in Las Vegas!
 

Wyoming is great for wind power. NV is interested in buying wind power from them but looks like some attempt to double down on stupid and keep coal alive just a little longer - I guess why not if you can pass the cost (pollution, health) to someone else, right?
 
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Sounds like corrupt politicians. I doubt most people would vote for higher cost electricity.

People absolutely did vote for more expensive power.

Conservatives promised to stop wind power in rural pockets of Ontario, and claimed they could lower hydro costs without proof or plan clearly highlighted as a lie to the electorate before the vote. The Cons immediately spent $450M to cancel contracts, break existing contract terms and get sued (and lost). Power is more expensive due to successive governments (Libs and Cons) who pandered to corporate donations ("public private partnership B.S.") and the will of NIMBY. Our publicly owned utility was specifically banned from competing during the massive 10GW renewable rollout, ie, forced profit. This saddled Ontario with 80c/kWh solar (then 50c then 36c) and 19c/kWh wind, and this "proved" that "RENEWABLES ARE TOO EXPENSIVE".
 
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California charging ahead, showing us the way.

Ontario Canada focused on storage a decade ago and we have some home grown innovation in this space which is not chemical battery but flywheel, pumped air storage, etc.
 
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Conservatives are about job creation. Maybe when the electorates get wise and switch parties, there will be more jobs created to put the wind turbine back in place. LOL

Cons are about getting elected. Better and more jobs are a promise made, but rarely kept. Public policy has run away from manufacturing, "free trade" was a Conservative policy under Conservative Brian Mulroney, but it was then adopted by the Liberals subsequently. Whereas the NDP (new democrats) have fought for jobs and manufacturing here in Canada. We don't even have our own Vaccine production, it's a scandal and embarrassment for a country as modern and science oriented as Canada, but the previous Con and Lib governments hollowed out our national innovation and jobs in that sector.
 
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