Prediction: Coal has fallen. Nuclear is next then Oil.

[mspohr]

The collapse of coal: pandemic accelerates Appalachia job losses

The collapse of coal: pandemic accelerates Appalachia job losses

Like many in coal country, Muncy has been hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic. Over 6,000 coalmining jobs were lost in March and April 2020. There are now more job losses and mine closures in the coal industry than at any time since Dwight Eisenhower was president 60 years ago, and despite Donald Trump’s fervent promises to revive the coal sector.

Moody’s Investor Service noted 2020 will be “a very challenging year for the coal industry”, as it is one of the industries most heavily affected by the coronavirus pandemic. Electricity generation by coal is expected to fall by 20% in 2020, with production expected to decline by 22% as demand and exports have significantly declined. A recent US Energy Administration Information report projects more electricity will be produced in 2020 by renewable energy than coal for the first time ever.

 

[mspohr]

A rapid expansion of renewable energy over the next five years could establish Australia as a home for new zero-emissions industries, cut electricity costs and create more than 100,000 jobs in the electricity industry alone, a new analysis suggests

He said some people were yet to grasp that the marginal cost of running a renewable energy plant was zero. “The price we are paying for our devotion to fossil fuels is higher electricity prices,” he said. “It honestly beggars belief.”

 

[Dr. J]

A rapid expansion of renewable energy over the next five years could establish Australia as a home for new zero-emissions industries, cut electricity costs and create more than 100,000 jobs in the electricity industry alone, a new analysis suggests

He said some people were yet to grasp that the marginal cost of running a renewable energy plant was zero. “The price we are paying for our devotion to fossil fuels is higher electricity prices,” he said. “It honestly beggars belief.”

Link?

 

[mspohr]

Link?

Sorry... Here it is

Rapid shift to renewable energy could lead Australia to cheap power and 100,000 jobs

 

[SageBrush]

Sorry... Here it is

Rapid shift to renewable energy could lead Australia to cheap power and 100,000 jobs

Clearly some folks in Australia would like to turn the interior into one big wind-farm. That sounds fabulous to me; I hope the native peoples and animals agree.

 

[SR22pilot]

Clearly some folks in Australia would like to turn the interior into one big wind-farm. That sounds fabulous to me; I hope the native peoples and animals agree.

Nah, I bet they prefer the strip mining the government supports.

 

[mspohr]

BP to cut 10,000 jobs worldwide amid huge drop in demand for oil

BP to cut 10,000 jobs worldwide amid huge drop in demand for oil

BP has announced plans to cut 10,000 jobs, representing about 15% of the oil group’s 70,000 staff, by the end of the year.

Bernard Looney, BP’s chief executive, told employees that the job cuts were essential to enable the company to cope with a global collapse in demand for oil owing to the coronavirus pandemic. He said BP must reinvent itself and emerge from the crisis a “leaner, faster-moving and lower carbon company”.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

This is the big thing people don't appreciate about covid dragging peak oil demand forward(into the past?) to 2019. BP's travel budget is likely mandated to be trimmed 25-50% from pre-corona levels. That's a direct trimming of fossil fuel demand.

Granted, they're the oil industry, but as a former consultant in this area I can guarantee 10-30% cuts will be standard across ALL corporate travel programs once we are "back to normal". And that's if you can even get your employees to travel(or people to meet with them).

Demand is so slow to turn around from such a disruption that by the time we're back to spending levels near 100% of 2019, peak demand will have already arrived naturally through EV and renewables adoption. Demand growth momentum was interrupted and will never recover.

 

[mspohr]

Blowout by Rachel Maddow
Just finished reading this book which chronicles the rise of the oil and gas industry from mid 19th century to 2019.
Incredibly detailed and well researched. It documents the tremendous wealth created and the absolute power and corruption on a global scale resulting from all of this money. Standard Oil and Rockefeller were the first of a long line of corrupt companies controlling governments. Interesting history of Putin and his petrostate.
A great (and long) read.

 

[S'toon]

Britain goes coal free as fossil fuels edged out

 

[mspohr]

Even the Pope...

Vatican demands end to fossil fuel - CNN

 

[mspohr]

The demise of coal is now a global phenomenon that — rather like Covid-19 — is no respecter of borders or governments, with both China and the United States grappling with the social and economic impacts of overcapacity.

In other words, baseload power just isn’t what it used to be, and too many coal plants around the world are sitting idle and unprofitable too much of the time. In China, the issue has surfaced in a recent government policy statement calling for the elimination of outdated coal-fired plants and stricter controls on new capacity.

Global demise of coal-fired generation driven by idle and unprofitable plants

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Electric Power Monthly!

June edition, for capacity changes and generation April 2020. In Electric Power Monthly time, the impact of the virus is being fully felt.

Coal capacity rose very slightly in April 2020, by 20.1 to at 225,819.2MW. But forecast capacity reductions continue. Last month, the 12 month net capacity change forecast was -6,316.4MW. This month the forecast decreased by 418.9MW to -6,755.4MW.

Coal's rolling 12 month share dropped another 0.37% to 20.94%, a drop of 5.60% from 12 months ago. Coal was 48.21% of generation in 2008. April 2020 generation was 40.1TWh compared to 60.1TWh in 2019, down and rolling 12 month generation falling to 858.9TWh compared to compared to 1,113.8TWh a year ago.

Nuclear capacity fell by 1,016.1MW in April 2020, down to 97,102.9MW. Planned capacity reductions continue, decreasing -1037.9MW to -1,619.3MW.

Nuclear generation was slightly down in April 2020 (59.2TWh v 60.6TWh), with rolling generation at 808.7TWh compared with 805.6TWh to April 2019.

Coal generation is normally lowest in April but it was historically low, at 40.1TWh.

Notably, including estimated small-scale solar generation, solar and wind generation together exceeded generation from coal (41,3TWh v 40.6TWh). That is coal's annual low meeting new renewables' annual high, so this is not going to be a regular occurrence (at least not in the short term), but it's a milestone.

Rolling 12 month coal generation has fallen 254.9TWh in 12 months. The difference between coal and nuclear 12 month rolling generation is now only 53.3TWh. Nuclear generation has now exceeded coal generation for 5 months in a row. Despite the nuclear capacity reducations, Coal generation is still looking increasingly likely to be lower than nuclear generation before the end of 2020.

That's because coal generation capacity factors are continuing to fall.

April capacity factors have normally been the lowest, and had declined from 43.3% in 2017 to 35.9% in 2019, but, April 2020 was 25.5%.. While it was very likely affected by the virus lockdowns, nuclear generation didn't drop much (83.9% v 84.5%) and CCGT generation was up on 2019 (47.3% v 45.0%), the vast majority of the reduction seems attributable to the marginlization of coal generation in the face of cheap natural gas.

Coal:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	225,799.1	20.1	225,819.2	0.01%
YTD	229,241.4	-3,422.2	225,819.2	-1.49%
Rolling	236,845.5	-11,026.3	225,819.2	-4.66%
Plan +12mo	-6,316.4	-418.9	-6,755.4	.

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	236,952.8	-11,133.6	225,819.2	-4.70%
Month Factor	35.9%	-10.4%	25.5%	-28.97%
Rolling 12mo Factor	52.7%	-9.9%	42.8%	-18.83%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2019	60,054	319,637	1,113,818	20.16%	24.59%	26.54%
2020	40,576	212,403	858,915	14.56%	17.01%	20.94%
Difference	-19,478	-107,234	-254,903	-5.60%	-7.58%	-5.60%

Nuclear:

Capacity (MW):

Period	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month	98,119.0	-1,016.1	97,102.9	-1.04%
YTD	98,070.2	-967.3	97,102.9	-0.99%
Rolling	99,546.6	-2,443.7	97,102.9	-2.45%
Plan +12mo	-1,597.5	-1,037.9	-1,619.3	.

Capacity Factor (MW):

Value	Prior	Change	New	Change
Month Capacity	99,586.1	-2,483.2	97,102.9	-2.49%
Month Factor	84.5%	-0.6%	83.9%	-0.71%
Rolling 12mo Factor	92.4%	1.1%	93.5%	1.17%

Generation (GWh):

Year	Month	YTD	Rolling	Month %	YTD%	Rolling
2019	60,581	264,076	805,556	20.34%	20.31%	19.19%
2020	59,170	263,322	808,655	21.23%	21.08%	19.71%
Difference	-1,411	-754	3,099	0.89%	0.77%	0.52%

 

[RubberToe]

Don't see natural gas in the thread title, but you can file this one under "electrify everything":

PG&E Gets on Board With All-Electric New Buildings in California

 

[iPlug]

Don't see natural gas in the thread title, but you can file this one under "electrify everything":

PG&E Gets on Board With All-Electric New Buildings in California

Good to see the new construction NG ban looking to advance from bay area city/county level to state level:

CEC is considering stakeholder proposals for a revision to state building code Title 24 that would ban natural-gas equipment installations for new buildings constructed in the state starting in 2022. If taken up by the CEC, it would be the first such move by a state agency.​

 

[eevee-fan]

Don't see natural gas in the thread title, but you can file this one under "electrify everything":

PG&E Gets on Board With All-Electric New Buildings in California

I especially like the use of heat pump (>100% efficiency) instead of natural gas heating (<100% efficiency) or baseboard electric heating (100% efficiency). Big savings in energy.

 

[SageBrush]

I especially like the use of heat pump (>100% efficiency) instead of natural gas heating (<100% efficiency) or baseboard electric heating (100% efficiency). Big savings in energy.

Indeed, although the killer feature for many is the dehumidification

 

[SageBrush]

Shale makes for a Rocky Foundation

Chesapeake Energy filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, company announces

 

[S'toon]

BERLIN -- German lawmakers have finalized the country's long-awaited phase-out of coal as an energy source, backing a plan that environmental groups say isn't ambitious enough and free marketeers criticize as a waste of taxpayers' money.


Bills approved by both houses of parliament Friday envision shutting down the last coal-fired power plant by 2038 and spending some 40 billion euros ($45 billion) to help affected regions cope with the transition.


The plan is part of Germany's `energy transition' - an effort to wean Europe's biggest economy off planet-warming fossil fuels and generate all of the country's considerable energy needs from renewable sources. Achieving that goal is made harder than in comparable countries such as France and Britain because of Germany's existing commitment to also phase out nuclear power by the end of 2022.

"The days of coal are numbered in Germany," Environment Minister Svenja Schulze said. "Germany is the first industrialized country that leaves behind both nuclear energy and coal."

<snip>
Full article at:
Germany is first major economy to phase out coal and nuclear

 

[mspohr]

BERLIN -- German lawmakers have finalized the country's long-awaited phase-out of coal as an energy source, backing a plan that environmental groups say isn't ambitious enough and free marketeers criticize as a waste of taxpayers' money.


Bills approved by both houses of parliament Friday envision shutting down the last coal-fired power plant by 2038 and spending some 40 billion euros ($45 billion) to help affected regions cope with the transition.


The plan is part of Germany's `energy transition' - an effort to wean Europe's biggest economy off planet-warming fossil fuels and generate all of the country's considerable energy needs from renewable sources. Achieving that goal is made harder than in comparable countries such as France and Britain because of Germany's existing commitment to also phase out nuclear power by the end of 2022.

"The days of coal are numbered in Germany," Environment Minister Svenja Schulze said. "Germany is the first industrialized country that leaves behind both nuclear energy and coal."

<snip>
Full article at:
Germany is first major economy to phase out coal and nuclear

2038 isn't "ambitious"