What's a wiki post? I was going to summarize everything in some kind of spreadsheet at the front of the thread, wasn't sure how though, but it seems like you know how to do it. If you want to help or have suggestions, by all means you are welcome to
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What's a wiki post? I was going to summarize everything in some kind of spreadsheet at the front of the thread, wasn't sure how though, but it seems like you know how to do it. If you want to help or have suggestions, by all means you are welcome to
chickensevil
Active Member
Because they will have to claim 1000 a week by the end of the year, I will revise my original number up 1000
So lets go with 38,700 for the year. I still think it is going to be a slow-ish ramp up (maybe hitting 800 by middle of the year), and then it will explode at the end of the year.
So lets go with 38,700 for the year. I still think it is going to be a slow-ish ramp up (maybe hitting 800 by middle of the year), and then it will explode at the end of the year.
Don't we have to agree on the 2012 and 2013 numbers ahead of time & also agree on what will be the 'official source' for the 2014 numbers?
2012 = around 2,000 MS produced.
2013 = around 25,000 produced ?
I heard that as of Feb the total to date is more like 35,000 but I'm clueless.
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2012 = around 2,000 MS produced.
2013 = around 25,000 produced ?
I heard that as of Feb the total to date is more like 35,000 but I'm clueless.
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chickensevil
Active Member
Not following you question. You know how many deliveries they had because Tesla releases that number. The total number produced this year will be the results of each quarter added up.
| gg_got_a_tesla | 31,000 |
| bonaire | 31,634 |
| Robert.Boston | 33,675 |
| JJR64 | 34,500 |
| wycolo | 35,000 |
| GSP | 36,000 |
| clmason | 36,600 |
| Zaxxon | 36,721 |
| StapleGun | 37,850 |
| mrdoubleb | 38,000 |
| Clprenz | 38,000 |
| farzyness | 38,500 |
| chickensvil | 38,700 |
| SteveG3 | 38,800 |
| PeterW | 39,150 |
| Discoducky | 40,000 |
| rrosenbl | 40,000 |
| Warrenbonz | 40,123 |
| gym7rjm | 40,123 |
| RationalOptimist | 40,309 |
| MikeC | 40,500 |
| Dave T | 41,234 |
| SebastianR | 42,000 |
| kenliles | 42,300 |
| Krugerrand | 42,350 |
| StephenM | 42,500 |
| Cattledog | 42,612 |
| techmaven | 42,772 |
| Benz | 44,000 |
| Larken | 44,500 |
| TD1 | 45,000 |
| TSLAopt | 45,600 |
| jdevo2004 | 45,601 |
| vgrinshpun | 46,250 |
| Jackl1956 | 47,000 |
| austinEV | 47,000 |
| sleepyhead | 48,300 |
| 772 | 50,772 |
| Rownolds | 50,773 |
Larken, since you have the first post, can you just edit this table onto that post? Tack!!
Also, there are a few double guesses. What should the tie breaker be for that?
edit: well there should be a table here, not sure why it's not showing up?
oh crap, I completely forgot about this competition and that I promised to summarize everyones vote and post it on the first page. Forgive me.
As for guesses, the last guess is the one that counts. The guessing closed one week after the ER (26th Feb)
Benz
Active Member
Great to see the list.
I am actually amazed to see that almost half of the predictions are 40,000 or higher.
That's pretty encougaging, as I am one of them.
I thought I'd dust off this old thread now that the year is almost finished and it's quite interesting to see how bullish we all were regarding production going into 2014. I'll be the first to admit I was way off and optimistic with my 44.500 cars guess. The average guess was 40.960 cars delivered.
gg-got-a-tesla: 31,000
bonaire: 31,669
Discoducky: 33,333
Robert.Boston: 33,675
JJR64: 34,500
GSP: 36,000
clmason: 36,600
Zaxxon: 36,721
StapleGun: 37,850
mrdoubleb: 38,000
farzyness: 38,500
chickensevil: 38,700
SteveG3: 38,800
PeterW: 39,150
Clprenz: 40,000
rrosenbl: 40,000
gym7rjm: 40,123
Warrenbonz: 40,123
RationalOptimist: 40,309
MikeC: 40,500
DaveT: 41,234
SebastianR: 42,000
kenliles: 42,300
Krugerrand: 42,350
StephenM: 42,500
Cattledog: 42,612
Techmaven: 42,772
Benz: 44,400
Larken: 44,500
TD1: 45,000
TSLAopt: 45,600
jdevo2004: 45,601
vgrinshpun: 46,250
austinEV: 47,000
Jackl1956: 47,000
sleepyhead: 48,300
772: 50,772
Rownolds: 50,773
gg-got-a-tesla: 31,000
bonaire: 31,669
Discoducky: 33,333
Robert.Boston: 33,675
JJR64: 34,500
GSP: 36,000
clmason: 36,600
Zaxxon: 36,721
StapleGun: 37,850
mrdoubleb: 38,000
farzyness: 38,500
chickensevil: 38,700
SteveG3: 38,800
PeterW: 39,150
Clprenz: 40,000
rrosenbl: 40,000
gym7rjm: 40,123
Warrenbonz: 40,123
RationalOptimist: 40,309
MikeC: 40,500
DaveT: 41,234
SebastianR: 42,000
kenliles: 42,300
Krugerrand: 42,350
StephenM: 42,500
Cattledog: 42,612
Techmaven: 42,772
Benz: 44,400
Larken: 44,500
TD1: 45,000
TSLAopt: 45,600
jdevo2004: 45,601
vgrinshpun: 46,250
austinEV: 47,000
Jackl1956: 47,000
sleepyhead: 48,300
772: 50,772
Rownolds: 50,773
Thanks for reviving this thread. It shows once again that the future is impossible to predict. Nevertheless I am going to guess the winner will be either bonaire or discoducky and that it is going to be close. Yes, that means I am predicting Tesla will miss guidance by approx 500 cars. Remind me how wrong I was beginning of February!
chickensevil
Active Member
Did we agree to playing by Price-is-Right rules? So if you go over you lose? Would make it easier to calculate
Krugerrand
Meow
I was clearly overly optimistic, but I blame that on the extra toe. Is there a 2015 prediction thread yet? I think I've improved on my ability to count.
Wait and i was thinking production. 32,500 deliveries. Obviously not a valid entry though.
chickensevil
Active Member
Haha good one coming in with guesses a couple of days before year ends
I'll start a new thread for 2015 deliveries seeing people are eager to cast a vote.
Will be the same rules as last time I assume. Voting will lock in 2 weeks after Q4 ER? Cause we don't even have solid 2015 guidance to be making bets on yet. I'm overly optimistic for 75k still (S and X) but we shall see, probably much closer to 60k...
Will be the same rules as last time I assume. Voting will lock in 2 weeks after Q4 ER? Cause we don't even have solid 2015 guidance to be making bets on yet. I'm overly optimistic for 75k still (S and X) but we shall see, probably much closer to 60k...
The new thread with rules is up.