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The contest is down to Lump or Maoing.
Perhaps! FWIW, I say it'll be closer to 50,650. This assumes 500 of Model X deliveries.
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The contest is down to Lump or Maoing.
Perhaps! FWIW, I say it'll be closer to 50,650. This assumes 500 of Model X deliveries.
If the final number is 50,650 then Lump is the winner.
This is not the Price is Right
No probs....I couldn't care less about winning this sort of thing. Just provided my input FWIW. So, great !
The contest is down to Lump or Maoing.
I think a true estimate does not use february guidance but does so simply from end of year sales. I think for true competition, we need to remove subsidies and close the guesses the day before the Q4 call occurs. Let's make it a true guessing contest and not rely on help from the company. By holding the guess date with the member, we can see if they are just extending guidance or using their own skill level. This is a contest for finding the "true Oracle" and that means their own skills are being used. We can never know if a mid year "card" will be thrown. Nobody knew 70 RWD or Ludicrous was coming during 2015. We also assumed Model X would be here by now. I doubt the value of waiting for Q4 call guidance matters much. Only four of 2015 contest guesses will be under the actual delivery number. That indicates 35 are over and possibly many were guessing with some level of exuberance built from following or extending corporate guidance. Same thing happened in the 2014 contest. 12 2015 guesses were 60,000 and higher. Strange thing is, 55,000 was possible if the company actually pushed harder to get Model X out the door earlier in the year.
Benz, I do still believe I have 2015 "in the bag". Three weeks until we know. I won't mind a repeat win. And also, aren't 1400 2015 sales considered 2014 vacation-affected sales?
So I think we can safely say that we have a winner for the 2015 prediction competion, if we don't get a too big final adjustment by Tesla in their upcoming Q4 report in February.
With the current deliveries, as reported by Tesla today, the total stands at 50,580.
Our winner is 'Lump' that predicted 51,888 almost a year a go. He is off by only 1,308 deliveries.
Our second runner up is 'maoing' with a prediction of 52,800 deliveries, off by 2,200 deliveries.
Third place goes to last years winner, 'bonaire' with a prediction of 47,690, off by 2,890 deliveries.
Congratulations Lump! I think we might have a TMC cap as the first price :smile:
As for the 2016 full year prediction competition, I'll open up a thread tomorrow. The rules we played by the past two years have been that the voting closes one week after the February quarterly report so as to give everyone a fair chance to take TM's guidance into consideration, so we've got plenty of time. Thanks for participating everyone and hopefully we'll get more participants in the next competition.
I think Denmark was the wildcard this year which I didn't factor in early in 2015. Going to have to factor any outgoing incentives in for 2016. Do you think we should limit the guess to "without going over"?
Congrats Lump and maoing.
I think Denmark was the wildcard this year which I didn't factor in early in 2015. Going to have to factor any outgoing incentives in for 2016. Do you think we should limit the guess to "without going over"? Only four guesses for 2015 did not overshoot the actual number. Only two guesses were under the number for 2014. Which is also an indication of why the stock price is so high - high expectations.
I'm not sure why there are so many people want to convince themselves and novices that demand is not an issue for Tesla. Demand certainly is growing but that's not Tesla investors can be satisfied. We need demand growth exceeding expectation, guidance without sacrificing margin. Otherwise, we should not debate if 50580 met on reduced low end of guidance instead of how much Tesla can beat 55K even w/o model X. Here is my earlier reply to papafox wrt. demand constraint reasonings http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...vements-2015?p=1239789&viewfull=1#post1239789. I'll stop replying here. People always like to choose what they want to believe and I have no obiligation to convince them.
For 2016, the 17K model S quarterly demand like Q4 is not sustainable. But model X backlog will mitigate the demand issues. So for the Q1/Q2/Q3, TSLA SP is mainly driven by model X production rate.
47 000 based on the expectation that they will deliver almost no model X's in 2015.
IMO you are losing the forest for the trees. 50 Pc unit growth in deliveries for 2015 and 2016 ( guidance ), given the high price points, in my view is pretty darn good !
Anyone, who thinks otherwise is completely missing the point. That's like saying someone selling 5 million units of $1000 item , and growing at 50 pc per year , has a problem with demand growth.
I expect that with the Model 3 we will see 3 to 5 times the demand of the Model S. Price elasticity of demand.
Importantly , the above does NOT factor in revenues from Tesla energy , something the same management team is working on .....