Perhaps! FWIW, I say it'll be closer to 50,650. This assumes 500 of Model X deliveries.
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Perhaps! FWIW, I say it'll be closer to 50,650. This assumes 500 of Model X deliveries.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
If the final number is 50,650 then Lump is the winner.
This is not the Price is Right
No probs....I couldn't care less about winning this sort of thing. Just provided my input FWIW. So, great !
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Yes, because all of us care a great deal about winning a random made up contest on a random thread on some message board. :tongue:
Bonaire still makes a chance. But if he wins, it'll be a qualified win in my eyes.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
chickensevil
Active Member
Doesn't matter, because they weren't counted in 2014. So your "winning value" only happened in 2014 because of those sales being off set, you can't have it both ways.
By the way, I like your idea, as that was what derived my guess was basing a guess of the final 2014 number and extrapolating the 2015 projections. Although this time around we will have the 2015 number (or at least close enough to likely declare a winner) before the Q4 call, so if you wanted to base a 2016 number you should have enough information minus whatever would have been given out by the Q4 call itself.
Personally I'm feeling an 80k 2016 number, but that might be too generous of a number yet again (I keep over shooting... *grumble grumble*)
RobStark
Well-Known Member
So I think we can safely say that we have a winner for the 2015 prediction competion, if we don't get a too big final adjustment by Tesla in their upcoming Q4 report in February.
With the current deliveries, as reported by Tesla today, the total stands at 50,580.
Our winner is 'Lump' that predicted 51,888 almost a year a go. He is off by only 1,308 deliveries.
Our second runner up is 'maoing' with a prediction of 52,800 deliveries, off by 2,200 deliveries.
Third place goes to last years winner, 'bonaire' with a prediction of 47,690, off by 2,890 deliveries.
Congratulations Lump! I think we might have a TMC cap as the first price :smile:
As for the 2016 full year prediction competition, I'll open up a thread tomorrow. The rules we played by the past two years have been that the voting closes one week after the February quarterly report so as to give everyone a fair chance to take TM's guidance into consideration, so we've got plenty of time. Thanks for participating everyone and hopefully we'll get more participants in the next competition.
With the current deliveries, as reported by Tesla today, the total stands at 50,580.
Our winner is 'Lump' that predicted 51,888 almost a year a go. He is off by only 1,308 deliveries.
Our second runner up is 'maoing' with a prediction of 52,800 deliveries, off by 2,200 deliveries.
Third place goes to last years winner, 'bonaire' with a prediction of 47,690, off by 2,890 deliveries.
Congratulations Lump! I think we might have a TMC cap as the first price :smile:
As for the 2016 full year prediction competition, I'll open up a thread tomorrow. The rules we played by the past two years have been that the voting closes one week after the February quarterly report so as to give everyone a fair chance to take TM's guidance into consideration, so we've got plenty of time. Thanks for participating everyone and hopefully we'll get more participants in the next competition.
Congrats Lump and maoing.
I think Denmark was the wildcard this year which I didn't factor in early in 2015. Going to have to factor any outgoing incentives in for 2016. Do you think we should limit the guess to "without going over"? Only four guesses for 2015 did not overshoot the actual number. Only two guesses were under the number for 2014. Which is also an indication of why the stock price is so high - high expectations.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Again, Demand is not an issue.
~1500 units less to Denmark would simply mean 1500 more units somewhere else.
How about limiting guesses "without going under?"
There are high expectations because Tesla has high y-o-y sales growth.
And the SP is not high.
Congrats to bonaire too! I believe it's not coincident for Lump and I among the top 2, who were both accused as "FUDster", "shorts" and "sky falling guy" in 2015 for multiple occurances. I really hope everyone thrive in 2016 and going forward, but rule #1 is to set proper expectation with balanced views.
IMO you are losing the forest for the trees. 50 Pc unit growth in deliveries for 2015 and 2016 ( guidance ), given the high price points, in my view is pretty darn good !
Anyone, who thinks otherwise is completely missing the point. That's like saying someone selling 5 million units of $1000 item , and growing at 50 pc per year , has a problem with demand growth.
I expect that with the Model 3 we will see 3 to 5 times the demand of the Model S. Price elasticity of demand.
Importantly , the above does NOT factor in revenues from Tesla energy , something the same management team is working on .....
Benz
Active Member
"At the end of Q3 Tesla estimated that going forward it would deliver 88,400 vehicles in 2016. That would represent an approximate 76-percent increase over 2015 deliveries."
Link: http://www.hybridcars.com/tesla-meets-q4-projected-deliveries-and-2015-targets/
Link: http://www.hybridcars.com/tesla-meets-q4-projected-deliveries-and-2015-targets/
I am pretty pleased with my prediction. Clearly I underestimated the number of model S's they managed to sell, especially this last quarter. But I was right that the model X essentially would not happen in 2015.
Model 3 is a half-price solution. Currently, you can buy CPO Model S RWD for half their original price. And some now into the $40xxx range USD. Since this car is supposed to be better than a Model 3, why are there CPO on the lots still? Is it because people demand the new-car smell? Or they require no scratches or other dirt issues? I feel EVs of 5 miles, 50,000 miles and even 150,000 miles all will run roughly the same performance. The problem is how long does an owner feel a battery will last and also any out of warranty cost concerns with many of the CPOs with RWD Drive Units.
Until the CPO demand shows mass adoption of Model S at a faster pace (and more will be on the lots come later in 2016 due to lease turn-ins) - I don't want to estimate any future demand guesses for Model 3. I actually think the Chevy Bolt won't do that well and it is in the same driving range as Model 3 and could benefit from a growing DCFC fleet of CHAdeMO or SAE combo chargers should they be deployed. To get consumers fully on board, they need to see far more SuperCharger stations or at least far more HPWC at malls, hotels (chains like Marriott and Hyatt), and motorways. I extimate 3-4 times as many SuperChargers should be distributed and more of the 2-head and 4-head and not 8-head solutions. You need them scattered like at convenience stores rather than large ones on major highways. Plus they must display "load status" using car telemetry to indicate how many Teslas are "nearby" the charging point. Data is there - time to use it to help people know if they will have a wait prior to showing up.
Model 3 will be "hot" but also must fit into the budgets of those who are not already in the EV "world". Model S has sold as many as 2,3 or more to single-owners as they went from model to model since 2012. Their repeat buying may repeat with Model 3 but the 3 will definitely be one that requires new un-assimilated buyers to be lining up and getting very good lease finance rates. It's a wildcard, really.
Benz - wasn't it said that Tesla would deliver at 50% annual growth rates "for years to come"? I do think getting past 50% growth for 2016 on cars alone will be tough to do. Denmark had its end of year blitz. Norway is tapped out somewhat waiting on Model X. And the Model X is currently unknown for current reservations holders (based no whether some removed their reservation or switched to Model S). Another wild card.
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I'm going to ask all to make use the 2016 thread for the next go-around; the next move will be to port over the appropriate posts from here to there; afterwards this thread will be shuttered.
Thank you all for participating and good luck!
And, on edit - five posts appropriate for the new thread have been transferred and this thread is now closed.
Thank you all for participating and good luck!
And, on edit - five posts appropriate for the new thread have been transferred and this thread is now closed.
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