ItsNotAboutTheMoney
Well-Known Member
Yes, but people don't care. On this thread you have to get past the "do the right thing" idea and focus on whether price and supply will allow EV sales to jump.And the idling causing way more pollution
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Yes, but people don't care. On this thread you have to get past the "do the right thing" idea and focus on whether price and supply will allow EV sales to jump.And the idling causing way more pollution
No, I wasn't referring to your doubling prediction. I was referring to your assumption of 12% new automobiles being BEVs in the US for 2023. That didn't happen. That's why I said: "So, obviously, we missed the 12% assumption for 2023."
As for your other hypothetical numbers and the "most optimistic person", well, we have 11 users here who voted 2025 or before which is nuts.
As I've said before, a 1970s-style oil crisis that's prolonged could accelerate things or at least move the US to a new higher baseline of % of BEV sales/year. But, if we have that coupled with a worldwide oil production decline and where no countries w/significant oil production and reserves can sustain their output, that will REALLY accelerate the demise of ICE and boost adoption of BEVs. When will we see that? Who knows?
Yep, and try to charge in the cold and snowAgain my feeling is 2024 is a sloppy transition year of getting things in order
-Interest rates slowly lowering
-NACS adapter
-Non Tesla charging, successful payments
-cheap Ev options such as EX30, EV3, M2, if leased level access to IRA credit
2025 could be the start of the bigger next wave after the early adopters that finished 2022
-NACS actually on the new non-Teslas
-huge availability of cheap EVs
Imagine leasing a EX30, EV3, M2
Maybe even $0 down and $199 per month
Amazing for young and less means individuals
this snow disaster in Chicago is lack of educationYep, and try to charge in the cold and snow
I apparently missed the first line of your post at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll". I was quickly going thru this thread for other reasons and stumbled across my own post (26) and guess there. Then I think I came across your post where 2023 and 12% stood out. I apparently incorrectly assumed that was your guess 2023. That's what I meant by assumption.The 12% was based on a doubling so they aren't different. The post was after 2023 numbers were basically known so it was obviously not an "assumption", we already knew we were the mid 7's.
In no way did I make an assumption of 12% for 2023. In your text you say "your assumption" and that is a patently false statement. It was based on a theoretical doubling of the 6% in 2022 which be 12% for 2023. This clearly did not happen and we have known this for months.
As far as the 11 people who said 2025 or before - that is out of 255. You realize you can find higher percentages that think the earth is flat. Gallup found that 40% of US adults believe in young earth creationism. So it really isn't shocking that 4% of those on an EV car forum might be a little optimistic.
I'm confused about "EV3", "M2" and 2024. I had to look up what was meant by EV3. I guess it's Kia EV3? Never heard of it until I looked it up. 2026? Maybe?Again my feeling is 2024 is a sloppy transition year of getting things in order
-Interest rates slowly lowering
-NACS adapter
-Non Tesla charging, successful payments
-cheap Ev options such as EX30, EV3, M2, if leased level access to IRA credit
2025 could be the start of the bigger next wave after the early adopters that finished 2022
-NACS actually on the new non-Teslas
-huge availability of cheap EVs
Imagine leasing a EX30, EV3, M2
Maybe even $0 down and $199 per month
Amazing for young and less means individuals
What is this "huge availability of cheap EVs" in 2025? From who? What models besides EX30? If anything, it seems like cheap EVs have been going away. There don't seem to be a lot left esp. with at least 200 mile EPA range rating. Bolt production ended. Leaf is cheap but sells in small numbers now and is CHAdeMO. Bolt returns sometime in 2025 (unclear what part of the year) but in EUV form only. Bolt EUV MSRP is higher than Bolt EV now but who knows what future Bolt EUV will cost?
Maybe BYD will finally start selling in the US but there's the 25% tarrifs on Chinese cars.
After I could no longer edit my post, I had a guess at what he was getting at. Perhaps kpanda believes that some folks in the US in 2024 will hold off on buying/leasing BEVs in order to wait for EV3 and M2. This assumes they're going into production at all and sometime soon after 2024.I'm confused about "EV3", "M2" and 2024. I had to look up what was meant by EV3. I guess it's Kia EV3? Never heard of it until I looked it up. 2026? Maybe?
"M2"? When, if ever? Who knows? Judging by Tesla's previous pricing pattern, they will only allow people to buy the most expensive ones first for years. The cheaper version will be years later, possibly late too and then they might cancel it, claiming "no demand" (e.g. what happened w/the 40 kWh S).
I am simply pointing out that ICE is not immune from very low temp impact.Be realistic. Any vehicle can have 12V problems. I know this because my Kona EV has had the 12V battery dying with unnecessary negative impact due to how it handles charging.
After I could no longer edit my post, I had a guess at what he was getting at. Perhaps kpanda believes that some folks in the US in 2024 will hold off on buying/leasing BEVs in order to wait for EV3 and M2. This assumes they're going into production at all and sometime soon after 2024.
It's just confusing since Volvo EX30 is supposed to be available in (summer?) 2024.
David, the M3 is absolutely proven and these new EVs make total sense.I know there are other cheap cars but Toyota only sold 230k Corollas in the US last year.
Interesting what Kpanda did - bought for children. I imagine that is a common source of sales for cheap cars. I would guess that Kpanda would not buy a cheap EV for himself (herself?). My buddy just leased a M3 for his kid. As the only EV is his household, it will be interesting to see if he drives it.
Young people should be - and are - buying used cars. I don't see why they would buy a cheap EV that is unproven on reliability. They also are transitory so an EV is probably not a good choice - renting, moving to Manhattan/SF/Boston or even Europe for a time.
$48k is median price. That isn't because people need to spend that kind of money. They either have the money or pretend they have the money to buy a "not cheap" car. It is all about wealth signaling.
Another friend describes the M3 as a "nanny's car". Meaning it is cheap enough that it might not be the occupant (or the parent in carpool line at school), it might just be the nanny's (or maybe the cleaners).
Mind you, I am not saying these things would not sell but price is not really the end all be all here. It may crater the used car market - that makes a lot of sense. But if you are the owner of a SFH, you are generally buying a more expensive car.
The model Y does a great job of being cheap but acceptable in higher end circles - sort of like the Prius in CA 10 years ago.
Ford cuts production of F-150 Lightning EV, adds jobs at Bronco and Ranger plant
Ford is reducing Lightning production at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center to one production shift from two, impacting approximately 1,400 employees.www.cnbc.com
A lot of negative sentiment with non Tesla charging affecting non teslas such as the Lightening
Makes sense
Additionally it was not for sure that Tesla was coming out with the cyber truck anytime soon. I think a lot of people were buying the F-150 lightning simply because they didn't think that any other truck would be available. Now that the cybertruck is actually starting to find its way out into the great wide world, I think people are willing to wait a little longer. The lightning is pretty much overpriced for what you get. It will all be interesting to watch!
A lot of negative sentiment with non Tesla charging affecting non teslas such as the Lightening
Makes sense