Yes, but people don't care. On this thread you have to get past the "do the right thing" idea and focus on whether price and supply will allow EV sales to jump.
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Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll"
- Thread starter SDRick
- Start date
The 12% was based on a doubling so they aren't different. The post was after 2023 numbers were basically known so it was obviously not an "assumption", we already knew we were the mid 7's.
In no way did I make an assumption of 12% for 2023. In your text you say "your assumption" and that is a patently false statement. It was based on a theoretical doubling of the 6% in 2022 which be 12% for 2023. This clearly did not happen and we have known this for months.
As far as the 11 people who said 2025 or before - that is out of 255. You realize you can find higher percentages that think the earth is flat. Gallup found that 40% of US adults believe in young earth creationism. So it really isn't shocking that 4% of those on an EV car forum might be a little optimistic.
Again my feeling is 2024 is a sloppy transition year of getting things in order
-Interest rates slowly lowering
-NACS adapter
-Non Tesla charging, successful payments
-cheap Ev options such as EX30, EV3, M2, if leased level access to IRA credit
2025 could be the start of the bigger next wave after the early adopters that finished 2022
-NACS actually on the new non-Teslas
-huge availability of cheap EVs
Imagine leasing a EX30, EV3, M2
Maybe even $0 down and $199 per month
Amazing for young and less means individuals
-Interest rates slowly lowering
-NACS adapter
-Non Tesla charging, successful payments
-cheap Ev options such as EX30, EV3, M2, if leased level access to IRA credit
2025 could be the start of the bigger next wave after the early adopters that finished 2022
-NACS actually on the new non-Teslas
-huge availability of cheap EVs
Imagine leasing a EX30, EV3, M2
Maybe even $0 down and $199 per month
Amazing for young and less means individuals
this snow disaster in Chicago is lack of education
the IRA needed to have continuous education by the govt, but also each manuf
I just learned that the M3RWD preconditions very slowly due to only having one motor...no one told me that connection
I apparently missed the first line of your post at Prediction, in Which Year Will New Electric Vehicle Sales Exceed 50% in the United States "Poll". I was quickly going thru this thread for other reasons and stumbled across my own post (26) and guess there. Then I think I came across your post where 2023 and 12% stood out. I apparently incorrectly assumed that was your guess 2023. That's what I meant by assumption.
I ignored the rest of the doubling as I figured it was nutty too. Look at the beginning of this thread w/the posts and exchanges I had with Stuart Watson + I believe on another thread. I recently discovered he was one of those people who voted 2025 and before.
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I'm confused about "EV3", "M2" and 2024. I had to look up what was meant by EV3. I guess it's Kia EV3? Never heard of it until I looked it up. 2026? Maybe?
"M2"? When, if ever? Who knows? Judging by Tesla's previous pricing pattern, they will only allow people to buy the most expensive ones first for years. The cheaper version will be years later, possibly late too and then they might cancel it, claiming "no demand" (e.g. what happened w/the 40 kWh S).
Look what happened with the 3, a supposed "$35K car" that was late in even having a $35K version for years. Model S was originally just under $50K after tax credit (https://www.tesla.com/blog/2013-model-s-price-increase). Model S price has been all over the place and the starting price at one point of just under $100K (Model S price increase 3/14/2022) sounds about right.
What is this "huge availability of cheap EVs" in 2025? From who? What models besides EX30? If anything, it seems like cheap EVs have been going away. There don't seem to be a lot left esp. with at least 200 mile EPA range rating. Bolt production ended. Leaf is cheap but sells in small numbers now and is CHAdeMO. Bolt returns sometime in 2025 (unclear what part of the year) but in EUV form only. Bolt EUV MSRP is higher than Bolt EV now but who knows what future Bolt EUV will cost?
Maybe BYD will finally start selling in the US but there's the 25% tarrifs on Chinese cars.
As for "imagine", what kind of lease length and allowed mileage are you thinking of when coming up with those numbers? It is possible that Congress could make changes to prevent the commercial lease loophole, as well.
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There isn't a 25% tariff on cars made in Mexico, where Chinese parts manufacturers are already building, but there is an "entity of concern" clause on the tax credit which means Chinese manufacturers in Mexico would have a significant competitive disadvantage.
It's a bit of a poison pill for anyone who wants to remove the tax credits since if they do, Chinese manufacturers in Mexico would become more likely to dominate the US EV market.
But, Chinese company or not, I'd still expect Mexico to become a bigger source of EVs.
There are clear signs of cheaper small EVs coming to other markets, but few if any would come to the US market. However, I do still anticipate a rush of base models with LFP batteries in the USA from late 2025/early 2026. LFP patents expired in 2022 and LGES, for example, quickly announced plans to make LFP cells. Chevrolet is waiting for LGES to make the cells so they can make the Boltium.
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After I could no longer edit my post, I had a guess at what he was getting at. Perhaps kpanda believes that some folks in the US in 2024 will hold off on buying/leasing BEVs in order to wait for EV3 and M2. This assumes they're going into production at all and sometime soon after 2024.
It's just confusing since Volvo EX30 is supposed to be available in (summer?) 2024.
MontyFloyd
Member
I am simply pointing out that ICE is not immune from very low temp impact.
And icy weather will magnify issues on cars with poor power management (including drain from security and keyless entry systems).
FYI: as lead-acid battery drains some of the acid is converted into water, reducing the freezing point of battery.
Thanks for the feedback
With our two daughters we did what we call bridge M3RWDs waiting for these cheap EVs that they will buy 2025-2027 in their names
The IRA might preclude tax credits on the purchase of these cheap EVs, but leasing gives the money
A lot of young people are using this bridge strategy or holding onto their current vehicle waiting to buy/lease these cheap EVs
Won’t matter where they come from except for China and they are working on that via Mexico
Late 2024 and beyond, cheap EVs will be igniting the market
Wow
I know there are other cheap cars but Toyota only sold 230k Corollas in the US last year.
Interesting what Kpanda did - bought for children. I imagine that is a common source of sales for cheap cars. I would guess that Kpanda would not buy a cheap EV for himself (herself?). My buddy just leased a M3 for his kid. As the only EV is his household, it will be interesting to see if he drives it.
Young people should be - and are - buying used cars. I don't see why they would buy a cheap EV that is unproven on reliability. They also are transitory so an EV is probably not a good choice - renting, moving to Manhattan/SF/Boston or even Europe for a time.
$48k is median price. That isn't because people need to spend that kind of money. They either have the money or pretend they have the money to buy a "not cheap" car. It is all about wealth signaling.
Another friend describes the M3 as a "nanny's car". Meaning it is cheap enough that it might not be the occupant (or the parent in carpool line at school), it might just be the nanny's (or maybe the cleaners).
Mind you, I am not saying these things would not sell but price is not really the end all be all here. It may crater the used car market - that makes a lot of sense. But if you are the owner of a SFH, you are generally buying a more expensive car.
The model Y does a great job of being cheap but acceptable in higher end circles - sort of like the Prius in CA 10 years ago.
Interesting what Kpanda did - bought for children. I imagine that is a common source of sales for cheap cars. I would guess that Kpanda would not buy a cheap EV for himself (herself?). My buddy just leased a M3 for his kid. As the only EV is his household, it will be interesting to see if he drives it.
Young people should be - and are - buying used cars. I don't see why they would buy a cheap EV that is unproven on reliability. They also are transitory so an EV is probably not a good choice - renting, moving to Manhattan/SF/Boston or even Europe for a time.
$48k is median price. That isn't because people need to spend that kind of money. They either have the money or pretend they have the money to buy a "not cheap" car. It is all about wealth signaling.
Another friend describes the M3 as a "nanny's car". Meaning it is cheap enough that it might not be the occupant (or the parent in carpool line at school), it might just be the nanny's (or maybe the cleaners).
Mind you, I am not saying these things would not sell but price is not really the end all be all here. It may crater the used car market - that makes a lot of sense. But if you are the owner of a SFH, you are generally buying a more expensive car.
The model Y does a great job of being cheap but acceptable in higher end circles - sort of like the Prius in CA 10 years ago.
David, the M3 is absolutely proven and these new EVs make total sense.
Reliability
My very good friend just purchased a highland after six successful years driving 300K miles in a 2018. Back in 2017 and even now, he was never the car person, just wanted something reliable and with good economy.
Safety
Why wouldnt you want your family in the safest vehicle in on road today.
IIHS
NHTSA
Economy
132MPGe
As for charging, one daughter is in local graduate school driving approx 80 miles RT a day. Her M3 makes sense as she starts each morning at 100% with home charging. The other daughter is moving between large US cities with medical rotations and Teslas SC network is perfect and quick. As we all know Tesla gave six months of free charging and then charging that is typically cheaper than gas, but the M3RWD is the most efficient EV made, EPA:
Value
These are second vehicles for both daughters as they had the parent used trucks though high school and undergrad school.
Tesla gave amazing trade in funds we moved to each M3.
Your response will be interesting, for reliability, financially, safety, sustainability, etc these M3s made total sense.
also, the point is to not buy anymore ICEvs and give others a change to enjoy the great used ICEvs we traded in that will need a lot of care and feeding
Ford cuts production of F-150 Lightning EV, adds jobs at Bronco and Ranger plant
Ford is reducing Lightning production at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center to one production shift from two, impacting approximately 1,400 employees.
www.cnbc.com
Ford cuts production of F-150 Lightning EV, adds jobs at Bronco and Ranger plant
Ford is reducing Lightning production at its Rouge Electric Vehicle Center to one production shift from two, impacting approximately 1,400 employees.
A lot of negative sentiment with non Tesla charging affecting non teslas such as the Lightening
Makes sense
henderrj
Active Member
Additionally it was not for sure that Tesla was coming out with the cyber truck anytime soon. I think a lot of people were buying the F-150 lightning simply because they didn't think that any other truck would be available. Now that the cybertruck is actually starting to find its way out into the great wide world, I think people are willing to wait a little longer. The lightning is pretty much overpriced for what you get. It will all be interesting to watch!
I meant unproven reliability of a new EV - from China via Mexico etc.
The M3 is a rock and a great choice. We have one also.
The argument I was countering was that when these $25k EVs come from BYD or whomever, then the EV market share will jump over 50%. I don't agree.
I confused the argument by saying that the M3 is a relatively cheap car and that is a negative in many circles. And you can see that in current sales. The Y is more expensive but people don't care because it is seen as higher end and it is more practical.
We have M3 and a MY. This basic platform may wind up being the best selling of all time. Which means there will be a maintenance and part aftermarket like no other. But for the most part, they don't need anything which is the real win. Our M3 is 5 years old. A 12 V battery and a broken piece of glass (covered by warranty). So $130 total maintenance and repair (excepting tires of course).
I need to work on my clarity in threads. My wife says I confuse her with texts also.
The M3 is a rock and a great choice. We have one also.
The argument I was countering was that when these $25k EVs come from BYD or whomever, then the EV market share will jump over 50%. I don't agree.
I confused the argument by saying that the M3 is a relatively cheap car and that is a negative in many circles. And you can see that in current sales. The Y is more expensive but people don't care because it is seen as higher end and it is more practical.
We have M3 and a MY. This basic platform may wind up being the best selling of all time. Which means there will be a maintenance and part aftermarket like no other. But for the most part, they don't need anything which is the real win. Our M3 is 5 years old. A 12 V battery and a broken piece of glass (covered by warranty). So $130 total maintenance and repair (excepting tires of course).
I need to work on my clarity in threads. My wife says I confuse her with texts also.
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