Prediction Thread - "You Called It"

[TheTalkingMule]

The long awaited squeeze up to $400+ will be caused this fall/winter by legislation removing the cap on the full federal tax credit. It'll be limited to vehicles <$45k.

Does this count as being "right"? I mean, SP was at $235!

Would love to see the Feds remove this cap post-elections.

 

[heltok]

Q2: Between 90000 and 90500 deliveries. Stock opens up +4% but ends the day -2%. Everyone is confused.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla produces about 86k cars in Q2, and delivers 90k (from leftovers). Stock has a fit, plunges initially into the $800s but raises to $1.2k before earnings. Earnings is $0.69/share GAAP. Stock to $1.5k the week after.

SO MOTE IT BE.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Tesla produces about 86k cars in Q2, and delivers 90k (from leftovers). Stock has a fit, plunges initially into the $800s but raises to $1.2k before earnings. Earnings is $0.69/share GAAP. Stock to $1.5k the week after.

SO MOTE IT BE.

IT MOTED.

Well, half. Was off on production by 4k.

 

[evp]

IT MOTED.

Well, half. Was off on production by 4k.

I vote to give it to you. Stock is at $1207 as I type. Deliveries were 90K and change. How they got there, not so important.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I vote to give it to you. Stock is at $1207 as I type. Deliveries were 90K and change. How they got there, not so important.

Welp, let’s see if my earnings side does as well.

 

[FlatSix911]

Not sure who first called this... Tesla secret project Palladium: new Model S and Model X are coming

From Electrek ... "The project involves building new production lines for updated versions of the Model S and Model X.

It’s still unclear how far-reaching the Palladium update is going to be, again due to Tesla keeping the information compartmentalized, but it sounds like it could be significant. According to people familiar with the matter, the new Palladium update is going to involve new battery modules and drive units that are going to serve as the basis of the upcoming “Plaid” version of Model S and Model X.

The new powertrain is going to enable a tri-motor configuration for plaid and feature increased performance and efficiency. We don’t have the final numbers just yet, but it should be impressive. Another source told Electrek that it involves more than the powertrain, and one employee even referred to a new “Model S and Model X Palladium Body” — meaning that the new version of the vehicles will have a different body."

 

[ABCTG]

Month of August;
S&P announces inclusion of TSLA into S&P 500 index
TSLA issues $12.5 B worth of new shares @ $1500/share
TSLA splits 15 -1 making share price of $100
TSLA stock then rises to $300/share
Tesla signs contract with nickel miner.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Month of August;
S&P announces inclusion of TSLA into S&P 500 index
TSLA issues $12.5 B worth of new shares @ $1500/share
TSLA splits 15 -1 making share price of $100
TSLA stock then rises to $300/share
Tesla signs contract with nickel miner.

I love all of this, excepting the 12.5B raised.

Like, why so much? What do they need to sit on 20B in the bank for, when they're gaining a profit each quarter?

 

[jeewee3000]

I love all of this, excepting the 12.5B raised.

Like, why so much? What do they need to sit on 20B in the bank for, when they're gaining a profit each quarter?

The answer to your question will be revealed on battery day

 

[ABCTG]

I love all of this, excepting the 12.5B raised.

Like, why so much? What do they need to sit on 20B in the bank for, when they're gaining a profit each quarter?

I think when S&P 500 inclusion happens the mutual funds will beg TSLA to issue more stock; something between at least $10B and $20B, so I chose toward the lower amount. So TSLA will acquiesce, and negotiate S&P or the mutual funds or the banks paying the fees or getting reduced fees or something.

What can they do with $20B? I don't know.

Most of my thoughts about S&P inclusion are based on what I read in the investor discussion board, where there is a tug of war between "TSLA should issue zero new stock" to "they should issue as much as the index funds ask for"

But first let's work backwards to the guy who invests in a passive S&P index fund.

He has a 401k account through his job, and he knows that he should dollar cost average and just sock away the max into the Vanguard S&P 500 index fund that is one of the choices of mutual funds every week.

He's heard of Tesla, and he sees a headline that TSLA stock keeps going up, and it is the 27th largest company in the world! He thinks to himself; "Great! That stock must be in my S&P 500 mutual fund account, I'm getting a piece of that rise in value."

So how does he feel when he finds out that TSLA is not a part of his investment?
Not too happy, and hopefully he complains to somebody; his boss, Vanguard, Standard and Poors.

So, Standard and Poors needs TSLA more than TSLA needs Standard and Poors. It's not a matter of S&P letting TSLA in.


Personally I don't care about S&P 500 inclusion. It's not like that is going to make or break TSLA. Tesla surviving Model 3 production hell was more important. Tesla acting on the vision of sustainable transportation and energy, and making a profit is more important. The only benefit I can see is that maybe S&P 500 inclusion ends the TSLA stock manipulation shenanigans.

 

[Buckminster]

Whole bunch of predictions here:

 

[FlatSix911]

More Model 3 predictions Tesla to update Model 3 center console, steering wheel, add heat pump and more, rumor says - Electrek
A known leaker in China has shared alleged new updates coming soon to Tesla’s made-in-China Model 3:

• New steering wheel
• Center Console 2.0
• New headlights and taillights
• Powered trunk gate
• Chrome delete
• Octovalve and heat pump
• New windows with double panes

The changes are supposedly also coming to Tesla’s Model 3 vehicles being built at the Fremont factory, which supplies Model 3 vehicles for all other markets outside of China.

 

[lolcat]

Not sure if this is Fully relevant or a little too bullish.

But, I bet that Elon would be worth more that Jeff Bezos in 5 Years from October- 2018

(I had this bet with a friend in real life already going - but i backed out)

Okay I win

 

[FlatSix911]

As I predicted... Tesla will now be forced to do the right thing for its customers.
NHTSA asks Tesla to recall Model S and Model X over MCU fiasco - Electrek

 

[wdolson]

I hope they offer a cheap upgrade path to MCU2 for those customers as part of the recall. MCU1 struggles to keep up with the current code.

If they replaced all the MCU1 out there they can quit supporting it in updates.

 

[Ulmo]

Shifting from a pro-business administration to an anti-business administration will cause difficulties.

Some will show up immediately (this and next month), and others will take a few years to reveal themselves (2023).

Past examples that would spread more: the Alameda County health department bureaucrat who decreed that Tesla shut down last year. The requirement for minorities on every corporate board of directors this year. More regulations. Tax increases. Etc.

 

[JRP3]

I see no indication of an "anti-business" administration.

 

[wdolson]

I see no indication of an "anti-business" administration.

I don't either.

 

[FlatSix911]

Shifting from a pro-business administration to an anti-business administration will cause difficulties.

Some will show up immediately (this and next month), and others will take a few years to reveal themselves (2023).

Past examples that would spread more: the Alameda County health department bureaucrat who decreed that Tesla shut down last year. The requirement for minorities on every corporate board of directors this year. More regulations. Tax increases. Etc.

I agree... the Feds and the state of CA are moving in the wrong direction. Elon was smart to leave the state.