Probability of Autopilot becoming standard when Model 3 ships?

[MGPG]

It's no secret Tesla is trying to build a fully autonomous fleet.
Model 3 could (and probably will) be the first mass-produced autonomous vehicle.

The interior design shots we've seen implicates driver input won't be as significant as in a regular car (assuming they don't have a radical interior redesign up their sleeves).
No instrument cluster, no HUD.. just a big center screen.
For that matter: just a big center screen that only shows your speed prominently when it matters, as hinted by Elon.

If their entire car is built around the expectation that the majority of the delivered cars will drive autonomously, they either have to make the EAP/FSD option significantly cheaper (to allow entry-level buyers to make the upgrade as well)
Or: Tesla will announce at the final Model 3 unveil event that, moving forward, Autopilot will be standard in all cars (both hardware and software).

What do you guys think is the probability of that happening?
Because, let's face it ... the way Model 3 is looking like right now: I fear it won't be a compelling car if it's not autonomous.

Or maybe we'll see a crazy futuristic spaceship-like steering wheel after all ... who knows.

 

[gregincal]

IMO, pretty much nonexistent at the 35K price range. I do think the Model 3 will be plenty compelling without FSD. I think people make too big a deal about the center screen, it's not like it's the first car that's gone this way.

 

[FirstSea]

This is the main reason I'm losing hope in the 3.

The car is being built for full autonomy, but full autonomy won't be out this year, it might be out next year... maybe. Also, if the 3 follows current pricing, full autonomy might be an extra $8k, so an autonomous 3 will be $43k, not $35k; which means that if you buy a bare bones 3, you will be stuck with a half car.
Also, even if Tesla does release full autonomy this year, it won't be street legal until who knows when...

 

[farzyness]

0 chance. If Model S doesn't come standard, Neither will 3.

I can see a scenario down the line where Model S will come standard with EAP, but it'll be an option on Model 3.

 

[EkBuZ]

I also say 0 chance, but that's due to the $35k base price. Don't expect any fun extras they can easily charge for being in the base, those margins will be thin enough. I also don't expect any feature/upgrade to cost the same as the S, when the car costs half as much to start with.

 

[McHoffa]

Elon said the average selling price would probably be around $42k. Not sure what he thinks people will want, but I would think most people would want autopilot or full autonomy.

 

[dsvick]

Little to no chance, especially given that a large number of people have indicated they're willing to pay for it.

 

[kzod]

If the car isn't compelling what car is? My only gripe with the car is the long wait.

 

[tono]

" Wait until you see the real steering controls and system for the 3. It feels like a spaceship."

 

[dennis_d]

Probability close to 0, they still need to get money back for the hardware.

 

[igotzzoom]

Probability that the capability will be built-in? Pretty good. Probability that the software will be activated and standard on all Model 3s? Not likely.

 

[Saghost]

I don't think there's any chance that a $35k 3 will have it activated.

They might bundle it into a "road trip" package with a bigger battery pack and more free Supercharging miles, but I wouldn't expect that either (I haven't heard anything, I made it up on the spot.)

 

[Topher]

Less than 3 percent.

Thank you kindly.

 

[igotzzoom]

" Wait until you see the real steering controls and system for the 3. It feels like a spaceship."
View attachment 223725

Looking at that photo makes me want to grab those joysticks and make "Pew! Pew!" noises. LOL.

 

[Post]

I would not be surprised to see a offering with car insurance; a subscription alternative to lump sum payment.

 

[happyguy]

0 chance. Not enough margin on a $35K car. Also will make lots of MS and MX owners very angry.

 

[alseTrick]

It's no secret Tesla is trying to build a fully autonomous fleet.
Model 3 could (and probably will) be the first mass-produced autonomous vehicle.

The interior design shots we've seen implicates driver input won't be as significant as in a regular car (assuming they don't have a radical interior redesign up their sleeves).
No instrument cluster, no HUD.. just a big center screen.
For that matter: just a big center screen that only shows your speed prominently when it matters, as hinted by Elon.

If their entire car is built around the expectation that the majority of the delivered cars will drive autonomously, they either have to make the EAP/FSD option significantly cheaper (to allow entry-level buyers to make the upgrade as well)
Or: Tesla will announce at the final Model 3 unveil event that, moving forward, Autopilot will be standard in all cars (both hardware and software).

What do you guys think is the probability of that happening?
Because, let's face it ... the way Model 3 is looking like right now: I fear it won't be a compelling car if it's not autonomous.

Or maybe we'll see a crazy futuristic spaceship-like steering wheel after all ... who knows.

Somewhere between zero and nil.

 

[Maaz]

Lol

 

[R.S]

Since the Model 3 will ship in a few months and even EAP still is a 5k option on a 135k Model X P100D, I seriously doubt they will throw FSD in for free, with the 35k Model 3.

 

[Lem89]

FSD will become standard at some point in the future, but how far in the future is the question. Tesla Network may be one way to get cheap (or free) access in the meantime.

Musk has hinted towards it being standard e.g. 'the more autonomous a car becomes the less we need driver display inputs' and in reply to a comment about placing an HUD on the dash he said, 'you won't care.' He said the dash will make sense after part 2 (FSD reveal) and to wait until the real steering system and controls is shown.

A lot has changed, but the car has yet to be fully revealed. Either the feature will be standard at launch (least likely), be significantly cheaper than $8k (more likely), or be offered as a contract through Tesla Network i.e. have access to FSD in return for putting your car on the network a required number of hours a month until the option is paid off.

I'm holding out hope for the third scenario. Otherwise I might just get FSD and no other options.