Production ramping - will Supercharger installations keep up?

[zannman]

We seem to have made it through the holidays in the US without huge queues becoming a problem this year.

With the production ramp and price cuts on all Tesla models, what are the chances that once lonely superchargers become quickly overcrowded? Before the end of the year push we already had more than double the Tesla's on the road than at the start of 2021. There certainly aren't double the amount of supercharger stalls, at least in the areas I frequent.

Will we see the effects of rapid growth of cars for Memorial Day this year?

 

[threeputts]

There was a 31% increase in superchargers from Dec 31 2021 to Dec 31 2022. So they are growing at a fast pace.

supercharge.info

Zoomable Tesla supercharger map with adjustable range indicator.

supercharge.info

My rough calculation is the number of Teslas in the US increased by about 47% in 2022, so while 31% is fast it may not be fast enough.

sources: Tesla Sales Figures – US Market (for all models 2015-2022)
Tesla Model S - Wikipedia (for 2012-2014)
total US sales through 2021 ~1.121M, through 2022 ~1.657M

 

[israndy]

Another study that needs to be done. The increase in shipped Teslas vs the number of Supercharging sessions. I am SURE that Tesla knows this themselves.

Perhaps there is more overlap as these numbers grow, less Superchargers needed as a percentage because arriving at a single charger is a lot more problematic compared to arriving at a site with 12 or 16 charge stations. You are likely to be getting there just as another user is finishing or long gone.

Same thing about number of Teslas actually on a road trip and any one minute. The more Teslas out there the more that are just sitting at home waiting to go on a trip...

idk. Like I said, more study needed.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

I would love to see a study. I have a display in my car that shows coolant loop temps so I can see that during a 50kW charge my car will get to about 130°F before the fans kick in, and at the 250kW chargers it gets to about 144°, but the fans go CRAZY (6000 RPM), if and when they turn on, at the 250kW sites. If the charge cycle is short enough (say 50-75%) the fans will never kick in because the batts don't have enough time to heat up.

They don't turn on, that is, until I leave the charger. Every DCFC that provides significant kWhs will cause the fan to run as you drive away from the charger, this is because there is one temp good for charging and one for not charging, typically below 120°, so if the air pushed thru the radiator by driving isn't enough to rapidly cool the car back to ~120° after charging then the fans will kick in, just not as crazy as while 250kW charging.

Agreed - it makes intuitive sense that soaking up 50 kW power would be a bit gentler than 250 kW, but yeah I'm not aware of any seriously scientific tests of that specific dimension.

 

[Earl]

arriving at a single charger is a lot more problematic compared to arriving at a site with 12 or 16 charge stations

This is queuing or trunking efficiency. A concept studied and perfected by Bell Labs for the phone company decades ago.

The good things are that:
a) Tesla has nearly perfect data on future sales in any area due to their order backlog.
b) Tesla knows the exact ratios of cars that charge at Supercharger to those who charge elsewhere as well as what areas are likely to incur high Supercharger usage.
c) Sites are aware of the benefit or not of having a Supercharger and Tesla can make the case when it applies. This isn't 2011 when Blink couldn't give away charging stations for the few EVs that existed.
Tesla is making money selling their cars so they know whether and how much they can budget to install more infrastructure.

 

[ZenRockGarden]

This is queuing or trunking efficiency. A concept studied and perfected by Bell Labs for the phone company decades ago.

The good things are that:
a) Tesla has nearly perfect data on future sales in any area due to their order backlog.
b) Tesla knows the exact ratios of cars that charge at Supercharger to those who charge elsewhere as well as what areas are likely to incur high Supercharger usage.
c) Sites are aware of the benefit or not of having a Supercharger and Tesla can make the case when it applies. This isn't 2011 when Blink couldn't give away charging stations for the few EVs that existed.
Tesla is making money selling their cars so they know whether and how much they can budget to install more infrastructure.

And on top of all of that, Tesla is not trying to make a profit by maxing rate-charged and minimizing money-spent. Tesla runs the charging network at break-even and their primary motivation is to make it WORK WELL for the customers.

It is astonishing how much better located and maintained the Tesla Superchargers are compared to the random-public-chargers that seek the cheapest location (not the best) and seek profit thru minimal-maintenance.

Literally Tesla is thinking "where do our customers need more chargers to make the network seamless and efficient" while ElectrifyAmerica is thinking "ok, we got the money from Ford, GM and VW for making 3000 chargers, where can we put up some more as cheaply as possible to hit next years numbers?"

 

[Earl]

And on top of all of that, Tesla is not trying to make a profit by maxing rate-charged and minimizing money-spent. Tesla runs the charging network at break-even and their primary motivation is to make it WORK WELL for the customers.

It is astonishing how much better located and maintained the Tesla Superchargers are compared to the random-public-chargers that seek the cheapest location (not the best) and seek profit thru minimal-maintenance.

Literally Tesla is thinking "where do our customers need more chargers to make the network seamless and efficient" while ElectrifyAmerica is thinking "ok, we got the money from Ford, GM and VW for making 3000 chargers, where can we put up some more as cheaply as possible to hit next years numbers?"

all true statements. The last one is quite sad though. :-(

 

[ucmndd]

My rough calculation is the number of Teslas in the US increased by about 47% in 2022, so while 31% is fast it may not be fast enough.

There’s no reason to expect or assume that the supercharger network needs to grow 1:1 with the overall fleet. Early growth was coverage based. Later growth will be capacity-based, but the need for more stalls does not necessarily grow at a linear rate in relation to cars on the road.

People have been asking some version of this question every single year since the first supercharger was installed. There have been some occasional temporary imbalances but by and large Tesla has done an admirable job at growing the network and keeping pace. I see no particular reason why that would change or reason to fear it. Even if you include the “sky is falling” set that are terrified of the unthinkable idea of opening up the network to a couple dozen ID.4s and Kias.

 

[threeputts]

the need for more stalls does not necessarily grow at a linear rate in relation to cars on the road

Why wouldn’t it? Is there a reason to expect people who bought Teslas in the last year will have less need for them than people who bought earlier?

Edit: Thinking about this you could make an argument that the ratio of cars to SC stalls can increase and maintain the same usage capacity due to many existing SC locations being older V2s while all new SC installs are V3 requiring less time to charge.

 

[Earl]

Why wouldn’t it? Is there a reason to expect people who bought Teslas in the last year will have less need for them than people who bought earlier?

In addition to the queuing/trunking efficiencies with more charging stalls per site, it is reasonable to assume that there will be more opportunities for home or workplace charging as:
- apartment complexes and employers realize the demand for such capabilities and fill the need. One can track Laundromats and home washer/dryers to see a similar infrastructure change: There are far fewer laundromats today and most new apartments offer washer and dryer as amenities. It is often no more expensive to provide a washer and dryer than a charging station.
- people who charge only at Superchargers realize how much time they're wasting and invest in home charging or move to places that offer it (see above). Remember that the average occupancy of a residence is about 5 years. This means that, in about 5 years many EV drivers will be looking for a new place to live and a charger is likely to be on their 'desired' list.
Note to all kids thinking about future careers: Its a good time to be an electrician.

 

[israndy]

 

[TomServo]

I wonder if Tesla is going to upgrade V2 to V3 or V4 SCers. That’s probably an easy and quick way to increase through put.

 

[MP3Mike]

I wonder if Tesla is going to upgrade V2 to V3 or V4 SCers. That’s probably an easy and quick way to increase through put.

Not easy or quick. Upgrading a V2 site to V3 is likely a complete site tear out and rebuild as the wiring is different, including the utility/transformer portion. (A V3 site needs at least a 20% larger grid feed, and really needs battery storage as well.)

Given the downtime for a full site rebuild it is better to build a new V3/V4 site elsewhere and then either leave the V2 site until the lease is up, or upgrade it later.

 

[wws]

I would love to see a study. I have a display in my car that shows coolant loop temps so I can see that during a 50kW charge my car will get to about 130°F before the fans kick in, and at the 250kW chargers it gets to about 144°, but the fans go CRAZY (6000 RPM), if and when they turn on, at the 250kW sites. If the charge cycle is short enough (say 50-75%) the fans will never kick in because the batts don't have enough time to heat up.

They don't turn on, that is, until I leave the charger. Every DCFC that provides significant kWhs will cause the fan to run as you drive away from the charger, this is because there is one temp good for charging and one for not charging, typically below 120°, so if the air pushed thru the radiator by driving isn't enough to rapidly cool the car back to ~120° after charging then the fans will kick in, just not as crazy as while 250kW charging.

If you (or I) had a newer heat pump car, they can use that extra heat in the battery pack to keep the cabin warm in the winter - rather than just dumping it like our older cars do.

Charging sites don't need to scale like gas stations did because, as we all know, the vast majority of EV charging is done at home. At least in suburbia. However as a counter example, a 12 stall V3 SC recently opened nearby me. There are a lot of apartment building in the vicinity. The place has been packed since it opened. A three stall EA is in the same parking lot, and usually has 2-3 busy stalls as well. So it seems in areas like that, they really do need to scale like gas stations did.

On the Interstates, again I often wonder how much of the traffic is locals just going a few exits vs travelers going hundreds of miles.