PSA: Please don't expect any FSD features this year, or even early next year, really

[Daniel in SD]

1. LOL, just no, there is literally no evidence that Tesla FSD exists at all, apart from the various claims and confused mutterings of Mr Musk, who has vacillated widely between describing it (long ago in late 2016 on the Tesla website, when the staged demo video was released) as L5 capable of forming an autonomous Tesla Network robotaxi fleet and (in the present) a mere L2 NoAP where the driver is persistently nagged every 15 seconds and has to confirm lane-change suggestions. To state FSD is L3 like Waymo's system is ludicrously unsupported, indeed counterfactual to everything we know about Waymo and contradictory of everything Musk is currently saying, but suit yourself if that is what you need to believe for some reason. You are, however, fooling only yourself at this stage.

Obviously Tesla is way behind other autonomous vehicle companies. Don't get me wrong, I never expect the Model 3 to have L3-5 capability! I just don't understand the line at which what Musk is describing becomes L3-5 testing. Once the car goes one minute with disengagements? 30 minutes? The rules just say "sustained basis." I guess I should call the permitting contact on the DMV page and ask...

3. Again, make of this double-dutch what you will, but I have already made my position clear and IMHO this new evidence only confirms it.

That's fine, I think yours and Tesla's position is against the rules and if they release Autopilot for city streets it will cause horrific accidents and be banned.

4. Please link to where Tesla has ever claimed this?

Tesla conducts testing to develop autonomous vehicles via simulation, in laboratories, on test tracks, and on public roads in various locations around the world. Additionally, because Tesla is the only participant in the program that has a fleet of hundreds of thousands of customer-owned vehicles that test autonomous technology in “shadow-mode” during their normal operation (these are not autonomous vehicles nor have they been driven in autonomous mode as defined by California law), Tesla is able to use billions of miles of real-world driving data to develop its autonomous technology. In “shadow mode,” features run in the background without actuating vehicle controls in order to provide data on how the features would perform in real world and real time conditions. This data allows Tesla to safely compare self-driving features not only to our existing Autopilot advanced driver assistance system, but also to how drivers actually drive in a wide variety of road conditions and situations.

https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/wcm/c...9109-0c187adebbf2/Tesla.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CVID=
Ok so they do admit to also testing on public roads. They claim to be testing autonomous vehicles in other jurisdictions. So you would have us believe that they're testing L3-5 vehicles elsewhere but Elon Musk is running a special different version of the software that somehow doesn't qualify as L3-5?

5. Your cognitive dissonance arises from the unreasonable insistence that Tesla already has a L3 FSD to test or release. Just get it through your head, as Musk has now crabwise admitted, that this is not the case, and it all becomes very simple to understand.

Just because their software is a crap implementation of autonomous vehicle software doesn't mean they're not testing autonomous vehicle software. That argument makes the whole self driving vehicle testing regime pointless. A company could just claim to be testing level 2 right up until the software is ready for final validation.

 

[Daniel in SD]

@Daniel in SD, here is the final clincher that FSD is being rolled out as L2 until eventual approval as L3 without nags:



I don't think Tesla can spell it out any more clearly than that, at the point of sale, as reviewed by their lawyers rather than someone loaded up on Ambien & Vino.

The use of Waymo's self driving system without supervision is also dependent on testing. That's why they're testing it and in compliance with autonomous vehicle testing rules. Right now Waymo's system is also a Level 2 system in California since a driver is required to "constantly supervise the dynamic driving task."

 

[Bladerskb]

It's also worth pointing out that there is precedent in the market place of having ADAS systems work at only traffic speed. Like you can drive a 2019 BMW X5 with its enhanced traffic assist package at up to 37mph without hands on the steering wheel. It has a driver facing camera (it's only a visual camera and not the fancy camera like the Supercruise system uses).
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The camera in 2019 BMWs is actually infrared by the way.

 

[OPRCE]

The use of Waymo's self driving system without supervision is also dependent on testing. That's why they're testing it and in compliance with autonomous vehicle testing rules. Right now Waymo's system is also a Level 2 system in California since a driver is required to "constantly supervise the dynamic driving task."

Bad interpretation: the regulations you quote there also say they only apply to L3..5, so no, it is still >=L3, there is no getting around it I'm afraid. Having a safety driver or not does not change the SAE level the vehicle is designed to achieve.