Q1 2016 Deliveries and Mix

[n88]

Now that VINs are being issued for production MXs, it's time to start the speculation as to how many X's will be delivered in Q1 and what will be the mix between P90Ds and 90Ds. So let everyone put on their best Eds face and make that bold prediction before New Years! Winner gets admission to the Psychic Hotline Hall of Fame.

I'm predicting between 6,000 and 7,500 Xs will be delivered by March 31, 2016. (60,000 annual total production rate for Q1 / 4 quarters x 50% Xs per other posts relative to current production at factory. Assuming a 15-20 % of current reservations (25,000) will be the take rate for the P90D and produced first, that would be about 5,000 P90Ds, leaving the surplus for us mortal 90Ds.

Does anyone know the current mix of S models % of P90 / 90 / 70? I'm predicting the ratio is lower on the Xs, being more of a family SUV/CUV, although higher at the beginning.

 

[ptsagcy]

According to one DS, they will be building all of the Sigs first. Because many of the Sigs have required fairly extensive QA and tweaking in the Service Centers, after they run the Sigs they will shut the line down "for a short time" to adjust the robots and make any other changes they have uncovered in the Sigs, and then will start running the Production X's. My WAG is that MX Production deliveries will start in mid to late February.

 

[Lyon]

According to one DS, they will be building all of the Sigs first. Because many of the Sigs have required fairly extensive QA and tweaking in the Service Centers, after they run the Sigs they will shut the line down "for a short time" to adjust the robots and make any other changes they have uncovered in the Sigs, and then will start running the Production X's. My WAG is that MX Production deliveries will start in mid to late February.

While that makes sense, it has been my experience that the DS don't really know all that much. Maybe some are more plugged in than others but mine seems to be a little lost at sea. We spoke on the phone on the 23rd, he promised to get back to me later that day. Nothing happened. I asked him about 20" wheel tire sizes about a month ago. Nothing. I asked how much I would owe at delivery so I could move money. Nothing.

Tomorrow may bring actual news but I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Nototrader]

You know. It's really amazing (In a disappointing way) how little the Tesla employees know about MX production and deliveries. I just got off the phone with the Paramus NJ sales center. He said they have had zero MX deliveries so far and has no clue when the first delivery will happen. He thinks that I will get my car P90D RN 28xx in Q1, but no clue when. He said he doubts it would be earlier than March. But the truth is he knows as much as I do. Maybe less. I'm a little disappointed in Tesla not sharing information with their employees to pass along to customers. I messed up and pulled the trigger too soon on financing. I was approved but it is only good for 30 days. Then they have to pull credit again

 

[macpacheco]

There are always unknowns. Any schedules get adjusted. The further out the more adjusted they get.
The answers to some of the questions posed here might be known with a multi week error.
This is normal in a dynamic environment starting to mass producing something new.
Sometimes withholding answers is better than giving crappy ones. Just thinking out loud.

 

[ptsagcy]

You know. It's really amazing (In a disappointing way) how little the Tesla employees know about MX production and deliveries. I just got off the phone with the Paramus NJ sales center. He said they have had zero MX deliveries so far and has no clue when the first delivery will happen. He thinks that I will get my car P90D RN 28xx in Q1, but no clue when. He said he doubts it would be earlier than March. But the truth is he knows as much as I do. Maybe less. I'm a little disappointed in Tesla not sharing information with their employees to pass along to customers. I messed up and pulled the trigger too soon on financing. I was approved but it is only good for 30 days. Then they have to pull credit again

What's your Vin#?

 

[Nototrader]

What's your Vin#?

Low 200s

 

[ptsagcy]

Low 200s

When they do come, we'll probably be on the same truck. I am #21X. I have not been able to get any info either, but I don't blame Nick - I think TM is keeping him in the dark because they don't know themselves how the production ramp is going to go. He has been very responsive when I email him. My own uneducated opinion is we have a good shot at Feb but more likely early March. I think we will be among the first production X's delivered at Paramus. Stay in touch and we'll trade intel.

Steve

 

[Nototrader]

When they do come, we'll probably be on the same truck. I am #21X. I have not been able to get any info either, but I don't blame Nick - I think TM is keeping him in the dark because they don't know themselves how the production ramp is going to go. He has been very responsive when I email him. My own uneducated opinion is we have a good shot at Feb but more likely early March. I think we will be among the first production X's delivered at Paramus. Stay in touch and we'll trade intel.

Steve

Sounds good. I appreciate the info.

 

[aija SigX 649]

VIN S2xx apparently still in transit, picking up in Springfield ..no firm date yet and looking like '16 now :cursing:

 

[n88]

Now that TM has issued production rates for Q4 on 1/3/16 and announced production rates per week for MXs, it looks like:

507 MXs produced Q4
208 were shipped (Looks like Eds was closer than most)
approx 250 Xs produced per week for the foreseeable month or so

So... Sig production should end by the middle of January and after a week or so for re-tooling & re-calibration, P90D should start up by Feb. 1, or sooner.
Given less than 500 P90Ds have had VINs assigned already out of approx 10K reservation holders who were able to configure, if they work on that # as a first batch, then they should get through the P90Ds in 2-4 weeks.
90Ds should start being produced before March 1, assuming those with MSRPs $110K or higher, followed by $100-105K and higher would fit within the production priority TM has established, production of about 1,000 in March, with VINs assigned and produced based on dates of confirmed orders.

 

[PeterK]

I've been debating between 90D and P90D for my order which will auto-confirm on Wednesday. I just spoke to someone at Tesla HQ who answered the phone number for questions listed on the time to config email. For what it's worth, he said P90D will be early this year and 90D mid year - when I pushed him on more specifics he said 3-4 months to get a P90D, and 6-8 to get a 90D.

 

[ohmman]

I've been debating between 90D and P90D for my order which will auto-confirm on Wednesday. I just spoke to someone at Tesla HQ who answered the phone number for questions listed on the time to config email. For what it's worth, he said P90D will be early this year and 90D mid year - when I pushed him on more specifics he said 3-4 months to get a P90D, and 6-8 to get a 90D.

In Tesla terminology, April-May qualifies as "early 2016" and July-September qualifies for "mid-2016". Assuming that's actually how it pans out.

 

[n88]

I've been debating between 90D and P90D for my order which will auto-confirm on Wednesday. I just spoke to someone at Tesla HQ who answered the phone number for questions listed on the time to config email. For what it's worth, he said P90D will be early this year and 90D mid year - when I pushed him on more specifics he said 3-4 months to get a P90D, and 6-8 to get a 90D.

FWIW, factoring in Tesla Time, etc, etc, I have noticed a P90D with Premium Pkg confirmed on 1/4/16 already assigned a VIN around 600ish. Otherwise, until we hear of a production model being delivered, its anyone's guess at this point.

 

[dwebb66]

FWIW, factoring in Tesla Time, etc, etc, I have noticed a P90D with Premium Pkg confirmed on 1/4/16 already assigned a VIN around 600ish. Otherwise, until we hear of a production model being delivered, its anyone's guess at this point.

I confirmed my production P90D with all options except Ludicrous on 2-Jan-2016 (ordered at midnight Christmas morning CA time) and still no VIN...

 

[ModelXBoy]

I also confirmed my P90D Model x on 1/4/16 but no vin yet. I selected every possible feature you can choose. Still waiting...

 

[highedu]

Maybe we start a poll.

I think 90d's will start delivering in April/May

 

[tonyx]

FWIW, factoring in Tesla Time, etc, etc, I have noticed a P90D with Premium Pkg confirmed on 1/4/16 already assigned a VIN around 600ish. Otherwise, until we hear of a production model being delivered, its anyone's guess at this point.

It sure seems like Tesla know barely more about delivery status than we do, internal communication seems so inconsistent...I called after my VIN was assigned (4xx after confirming 1/04) and was told that there were three factors determining which production models would be produced first:
1. Confirmation date
2. Model (P90D => 90D => 70D)
3. Seat count (7 seat first)

VIN "didn't matter," and of course this doesn't say anything about their delivery process. Take it for what it's worth, I can't say the rep exuded confidence in his voice, but I consider all this part of the bleeding edge game and actually enjoy much of the drama.

 

[timf]

It sure seems like Tesla know barely more about delivery status than we do, internal communication seems so inconsistent...I called after my VIN was assigned (4xx after confirming 1/04) and was told that there were three factors determining which production models would be produced first:
1. Confirmation date
2. Model (P90D => 90D => 70D)
3. Seat count (7 seat first)

VIN "didn't matter," and of course this doesn't say anything about their delivery process. Take it for what it's worth, I can't say the rep exuded confidence in his voice, but I consider all this part of the bleeding edge game and actually enjoy much of the drama.

I haven't seen any evidence that 7 seats are being prioritized over 6 seats. Both are being delivered in volume. Now, the 5 seat configuration does have mid 2016 availability and could delay production, but the 6 seat configuration should not.

I do expect the 90D to being deliveries no later than May if they achieve full production volume this quarter. Even at the current rate of 200-300 per week, they would work through much of the P90D backlog by then and are going to need to introduce more variants to the mix.

 

[Aljohn]

Odd... that a P90D confirmed in January has a VIN and many in mid to early December do no. System issue? Communications issue? or just a plain screw up. Confirmed December 15th. NO VIN