Q1 Production Numbers

[Cheburashka]

Ouch.. glad I exited from the stock.

2018 Q3: Produced 80,142 Delivered 83,500

2018 Q4: Produced 86,555 Delivered 90,700

2019 Q1: Produced 77,100 Delivered 63,000

 

[TeeEmCee]

Auto sales are a lot more cyclical than constant, so I was curious to see how these numbers compare to the patterns of other manufacturers. I managed to dig up the BMW Group sales reports for the last few months of 2018 and the first couple of months of 2019. Their Jan and Feb sales stand at some 60% of Nov/Dec. Compared to that variance, the Tesla sales look like they're trending up.

If I held any of their stock, I would not see these numbers as a reason to panic. There are plenty of reasons to freak out when it comes to Tesla, but the Q1 sales volume is probably not one of them. Surely the smart money have priced this in a while ago already.

 

[Cheburashka]

Yeah, but you can't really compare Tesla to BMW.

Tesla's survival depends on growth. I'm confident this won't even be a profitable quarter.

 

[TeeEmCee]

Yeah, but you can't really compare Tesla to BMW.

Tesla's survival depends on growth. I'm confident this won't even be a profitable quarter.

Correct.
I counted that as part of the "plenty of reasons to freak out when it comes to Tesla" comment.

The sales trends are good, but the financial situation is precarious, i.m.o. solely because of the super-dysfunctional management at the very top and all the bridges burned over the last year or so. All self-inflicted and avoidable, in my armchair quarterback opinion.

 

[CarlK]

Auto sales are a lot more cyclical than constant, so I was curious to see how these numbers compare to the patterns of other manufacturers. I managed to dig up the BMW Group sales reports for the last few months of 2018 and the first couple of months of 2019. Their Jan and Feb sales stand at some 60% of Nov/Dec. Compared to that variance, the Tesla sales look like they're trending up.

If I held any of their stock, I would not see these numbers as a reason to panic. There are plenty of reasons to freak out when it comes to Tesla, but the Q1 sales volume is probably not one of them. Surely the smart money have priced this in a while ago already.

Q1 is always the slow quarter due to holidays and weather. Although some will ignore that and cry the sky is falling. Tesla still have a lot of challenges ahead but those are good problems.

 

[Lunares]

Yeah, but you can't really compare Tesla to BMW.

Tesla's survival depends on growth. I'm confident this won't even be a profitable quarter.

Yea, and so was Elon like 2 months ago when he tweeted "highly unlikely to be profitable in Q1". We knew this wouldn't be close to profitable when they had to pay 920M in cash for the bond.

Q3/Q4 showed they could hit production, now that US demand is tapering (which is expected, I would also expect it to stabilize with the SR available) we are seeing them deal with international shipping en masse.

Not turning a profit this quarter isn't a big deal given that they are keeping up with model 3 production numbers.

only 2 things really matter

1. Will they really produce (and sell) another 300k model 3's this year (100k/ quarter , up from 80k this quarter)

2. What margin will they have on these now that the mix is shifting towards the SR/SR+ (need to maintain 10% + gross margin)

Q2 and Q3 this year will be almost as critical as Q3/Q4 last year (not quite as much given they don't have debt payments coming up until next year + capital expenditure this year is relatively low outside the china capital raise)

 

[sandpiper]

Yea, and so was Elon like 2 months ago when he tweeted "highly unlikely to be profitable in Q1". We knew this wouldn't be close to profitable when they had to pay 920M in cash for the bond.

Q3/Q4 showed they could hit production, now that US demand is tapering (which is expected, I would also expect it to stabilize with the SR available) we are seeing them deal with international shipping en masse.

Not turning a profit this quarter isn't a big deal given that they are keeping up with model 3 production numbers.

only 2 things really matter

1. Will they really produce (and sell) another 300k model 3's this year (100k/ quarter , up from 80k this quarter)

2. What margin will they have on these now that the mix is shifting towards the SR/SR+ (need to maintain 10% + gross margin)

Q2 and Q3 this year will be almost as critical as Q3/Q4 last year (not quite as much given they don't have debt payments coming up until next year + capital expenditure this year is relatively low outside the china capital raise)

I wonder how much of Tesla's operating profit comes from the S/X? I'm sure it's been contributing disproportionately. Between lower numbers and price cuts that could be a major problem.

They need to get the upgrades out to build some enthusiasm for these two vehicles. Its been too long.

Why would the debt payment hit profit? I'm sure they've been accruing for that.

 

[CarlK]

I wonder how much of Tesla's operating profit comes from the S/X? I'm sure it's been contributing disproportionately. Between lower numbers and price cuts that could be a major problem.

They need to get the upgrades out to build some enthusiasm for these two vehicles. Its been too long.

Why would the debt payment hit profit? I'm sure they've been accruing for that.

I got the feeling both Tesla and investors' focuses are on the 3/Y rather than the S/X beginning a year or two ago. Tesla will not, and should not, ignore the S/X of course but those are icing on the cake and not bread and butter anymore. Not to mention instead of selling fewer higher profit cars Elon probably prefers to sell more lower priced ones to help the acceleration of transition to sustainable transportation.