Near-future quarterly financial projections

[Reality]

i have heard people were asked to take their stuff and leave yesterday. so there's no delay, those people are already gone.

@schonelucht, won't be straight 9% as opex definitely has some depreciation in it. as @adiggs mentioned will be ~9% of salary costs.

this increases further the likelihood of gaap profits in q3/q4 due to the opex reduction. it also forces a downward revision on q2 gaap eps estimates as i think all the severance charges are taken this quarter.

@Reality i am loosely hearing that cuts are across the board, so not necessarily tipped towards r&d. opex (sg&a + r&d) will rise q/q this quarter due to the severance charges. you won't see the effect of the reduction cleanly until q3 unless they choose to disclose the split of severance charges vs. vanilla opex.

i'll try to incorporate all the above and other useful inputs/suggestions i received into a revised q2-q4 model over coming days.

not in a huge hurry to post b/c i was listening to a podcast yesterday discussing tesla's next few quarters and it sounded like the whole thing could have been lifted from here with no citation. not that i mind people using my work, just that it would be nice if they didn't pass it off as their own.

i meant QoQ from Q2 to Q4,


I dont really even count Q2 at this point, its going to be a disaster

 

[mongo]

It depends on how aggressive Tesla is about setting separation dates. The severance won't be paid until the final work day - it might be that Tesla makes a point of doing the separations this month, but that's a couple of weeks to go from announcement to walking out the door. That's pretty fast / abrupt.

From my experience in various automotive and non industries, notification and separation are same day/ hour. Get the tap on your shoulder, get the talk & severance package, maybe box your own desk, and get escorted out. Less risk to the company, and cleaner for the former and current employees. Heck, just the two week wind down due to self-resignation can be a drain on the team (but needed if the employee was a key contributor).

 

[generalenthu]

From my experience in various automotive and non industries, notification and separation are same day/ hour. Get the tap on your shoulder, get the talk & severance package, maybe box your own desk, and get escorted out. Less risk to the company, and cleaner for the former and current employees. Heck, just the two week wind down due to self-resignation can be a drain on the team (but needed if the employee was a key contributor).

Reddit comments indicate at least one example of an employee staying on for a good bit into Q3.

 

[bdy0627]

i agree, but my thesis is that tesla is not thinking about the long term, so i think RD gets hit hard

This appears to be for short term financial performance, ultimately to support the longterm plan. I think it's really a massive mistake to think that Elon/Tesla is not thinking about the long term. Everything he has done so far has been for the long term. That's part of the reason why he is having to focus so intensely now on the short term.

In my view, Tesla is like a spacecraft planning to travel far beyond by slingshotting around a planet, using the gravitational pull to power the move. They've cut it just a little too close to the planet for comfort, so they need to make some last minute significant adjustments to make sure the slingshot maneuver doesn't end in disaster by crashing into the planet. As long as they clear the planet, disaster is averted and the trip gains powerful momentum as planned by slingshotting the planet. Stay tuned, but I think they've got this.

 

[luvb2b]

i meant QoQ from Q2 to Q4,
I dont really even count Q2 at this point, its going to be a disaster

so you think sg&a rises q2 to q4?

i guess it depends on the mix of where layoffs fall. my estimates for how opex dollars were distributed in 18q1:
tesla r&d: 30.6%
tesla sg&a: 52.4%
scty r&d: 4.2%
scty sg&a: 12.8%

i crudely estimate that taking out non-production people impacts opex to the tune of $75-100m/quarter (9.5% of 18q1 opex). that 9.5% has to be sliced out between the 4 categories above. equal relative weights would be:
tesla r&d: 30.6% -2.9%
tesla sg&a: 52.4% -5.0%
scty r&d: 4.2% -0.4%
scty sg&a: 12.8% -1.2%

recall they had already laid off a bunch of scty employees (esp. sales) in late 2016 and early 2017. i doubt they could do an overweight reduction in scty sg&a. scty r&d is already very low, so hard to go much overweight there. so that's 1.6% of the 9.5% cut.

now you want to go overweight to the tesla r&d bucket... so how do you change the split? maybe tesla r&d gets 5.8% instead of 2.9% of the 9.5% cut. maybe tesla sg&a gets 2.1%? meaning a split like:
tesla r&d: 30.6% -5.8%
tesla sg&a: 52.4% -2.1%
scty r&d: 4.2% -0.4%
scty sg&a: 12.8% -1.2%

this is a fairly massive 20% reduction of tesla r&d, as i think you'd like to believe.

companywide sg&a which was previously 67.2% of opex now gets 3.3% of the total 9.5% cut. meaning sg&a run-rate drops by 4.9% (3.3%/67.2%) in a scenario where tesla r&d is disproportionately reduced.

hope you're still hanging on here. i know how hard it is to think clearly when markets turn against us.

however: in q2 they will also have severance charges in each category approx. proportional to the layoffs in that category. so assuming a total one-time charge of 100m for the layoffs, company-wide sg&a will get 34.7% of that total (34.7% = 3.3%/9.5%). one note here, i adjusted my severance approximation lower to account for layoffs with 3 weeks to go in the quarter, so i am not adjusting sg&a for losing that few weeks of pay. i think you'll get the idea without being lost in that detail.

so do the walk from q1 sg&a:

q1 sg&a 551,404
+ severance charges 34,700
+ usual tesla 2% increase 11,000
q2 sg&a 597,104

now walk from q2 to q3 sg&a:
q2 sg&a 597,104
- no severance charges 34,700
- opex savings from layoffs 27,018 (4.9% from above x 551,404 q1 sg&a to estimate)
+ usual tesla 2% increase 11,000
q3 sg&a 546,386

and walk from q3 to q4 sg&a:
q3 sg&a 546,386
+ usual tesla 2% increase 11,000
+ @Reality thinks 50,000 more in sg&a
q4 sg&a 607,000

so q2 to q4 sg&a increase will require a herculean ~10% sg&a increase *on top* of the 2% quarterly increase i already added. this is because q2 sg&a gets bumped due to severance charges, so it's really hard to get q4 back above a level that includes those charges at the same time you are losing costs.

if you're making this bet, i hope for your sake that it's with other people's money.

what i'm curious about is that now we get approx a 50-60c benefit to q3 & q4 eps from opex reduction vs. prior modeling. does that bother you (@Reality) at all and make you more concerned we may see gaap profits in q3/q4?

 

[schonelucht]

From my experience in various automotive and non industries, notification and separation are same day/ hour. Get the tap on your shoulder, get the talk & severance package, maybe box your own desk, and get escorted out. Less risk to the company, and cleaner for the former and current employees. Heck, just the two week wind down due to self-resignation can be a drain on the team (but needed if the employee was a key contributor).

One thing. European worker protections are better. Anyone notified today about being laid off will only see their official contract end in a few weeks or even months. (They’ll probably be asked to stay at home anyway but pay continues and severance package may only follow later)

3600 employees times $5000 dollar cost times 3 months is about $50M cost reduction per quarter.

Still the timing is particular. The organisation is about to double its deliveries over the year. Why the need to right size now if positive cash flow is right around the corner? It makes me doubt more that we are missing something that all those analysts warning about the need for debt / equity raise do see.

 

[mongo]

One thing. European worker protections are better. Anyone notified today about being laid off will only see their official contract end in a few weeks or even months. (They’ll probably be asked to stay at home anyway but pay continues and severance package may only follow later)

True. Is it possible to escrow the known severance payments as a one time cost?

3600 employees times $5000 dollar cost times 3 months is about $50M cost reduction per quarter.

Salaried employees likely cost more than 60k a year (including insurance, FICA, Social, ignoring HR overhead)

Still the timing is particular. The organisation is about to double its deliveries over the year. Why the need to right size now if positive cash flow is right around the corner? It makes me doubt more that we are missing something that all those analysts warning about the need for debt / equity raise do see.

Various Thoughts:

1. Offset production hiring (400/wk for multiple weeks)
2. With 3 done, Semi and Roadster in progress and Y one year from reveal, they may have much less need for internal dev & support (more mature product line).
   
3. Could be optimizing process flow (service schedule via app) and eliminating need for positions.
   
4. If you believe the Vance biography, Elon said something to the effect of: 'The longer you wait to fire someone, the longer it has been since you should have fired them.'
5. Karpathy's SW 2.0 is working really good/ less need for image labelers.
6. German automation team made U.S. positions redundant.

 

[Cattledog]

From my experience in various automotive and non industries, notification and separation are same day/ hour. Get the tap on your shoulder, get the talk & severance package, maybe box your own desk, and get escorted out. Less risk to the company, and cleaner for the former and current employees. Heck, just the two week wind down due to self-resignation can be a drain on the team (but needed if the employee was a key contributor).

This. Employees let go but still at the office is not a helpful atmosphere. Neither are looming layoffs hanging over everyone, with everyone wondering who getting cut. I'd expect Tesla to be doing it this week and booking severance expenses into Q2.

 

[Reality]

what i'm curious about is that now we get approx a 50-60c benefit to q3 & q4 eps from opex reduction vs. prior modeling. does that bother you (@Reality) at all and make you more concerned we may see gaap profits in q3/q4?

not really, because it isnt sustainable, i think its possible to pull out one Q of GAAP profitability if you spike all the highest margined backlog M3's in a single quarter, cut as many expenses as possible (check this box as started), massage some accounting assumptions and possibly even pull forward as much demand as possible by delivering the 200k NA car this Q, although that might not be necessary.


There are only so many people that want a 50k M3, it is not as many as you hope. Show me 3 Q's in a row and i will be worried, one Q of 50m of GAAP profitability doesn't really even count.

 

[bhzmark]

Show me 3 Q's in a row and i will be worried,

Some shorts had that same view of Amazon: Placing confidence in the lack of consistent gaap profitablity and ignoring the simultaneous creation of massive staggering shareholder value.

 

[Reality]

saying some random person/people hated amazon has nothing to do with the conversation

 

[bdy0627]

One thing. European worker protections are better. Anyone notified today about being laid off will only see their official contract end in a few weeks or even months. (They’ll probably be asked to stay at home anyway but pay continues and severance package may only follow later)

3600 employees times $5000 dollar cost times 3 months is about $50M cost reduction per quarter.

Still the timing is particular. The organisation is about to double its deliveries over the year. Why the need to right size now if positive cash flow is right around the corner? It makes me doubt more that we are missing something that all those analysts warning about the need for debt / equity raise do see.

Isn't it because of the obvious close call liquidity-wise that Tesla finds itself in right now? 6-9 months ago, they still didn't seem to believe, or plan for, the possibility of the ramp progressing poorly, despite optimizing financially for a rapid ramp. They finally got to a point a few months ago where the financial ramifications of the poor ramp relative to the plan became clear. This is one of the consequences. This is the most obvious answer to me. Does this not seem a reasonable explanation?

 

[Reality]

Isn't it because of the obvious close call liquidity-wise that Tesla finds itself in right now? 6-9 months ago, they still didn't seem to believe, or plan for, the possibility of the ramp progressing poorly, despite optimizing financially for a rapid ramp. They finally got to a point a few months ago where the financial ramifications of the poor ramp relative to the plan became clear. This is one of the consequences. This is the most obvious answer to me. Does this not seem a reasonable explanation?

I think it is a fairly reasonable explanation


I also think it is fairly possible that they thought they would be able to raise by now and were not as worried about a close call.


I definitely think there is a significant possibility that no one will underwrite them without showing they can be profitable post M3 ramp. I think EM is hoping that he can engineer 1 profitable quarter and raise again, not sure if the i-banks will fall for it. Current sentiment seems like a no.

 

[Reality]

Not to bury this thread with capital raise talk, but lets remember that the last major raise (1.8b in debt) was done under the pretense of "5k per week by the end of 2017", and there has been a few things to come to light that show Tesla mgmt may have known that was not possible at the time of issuance (Q4 EC, Musk said that 2 lines just didnt work and it took them 6-9 months to fix them).


This is big money we are talking about, I definitely think there is a possibility that the representations surrounding that raise are causing issues on any future raises.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

I think EM is hoping that he can engineer 1 profitable quarter and raise again, not sure if the i-banks will fall for it.

Joining the S&P 500 is too important to stop at one profitable quarter. Tesla will want at least 3 profitable quarters— if those profits are sufficient to outweigh the losses of Q2– or 4 full quarters.

Considering the emphasis Musk has been placing lately on full-year profitability, I suspect that they are aiming for a profitable 2019.

 

[luvb2b]

here's my updated view. incorporated a few corrections and suggestions from the comments.

i segregate the one time charge for layoffs on the income statement, however i believe the quarterly report might just combine it into opex. the cash flow statement includes some impact of stock-based comp charges for layoffs. i assume an equal relative weight of cuts across various opex lines to model future quarters.

the cash balance looks scary but i didn't model any draws on credit lines (those are very hard to model intelligently so i opted to punt). they have recently expanded credit line capacity so if any quarter's cash balance looks to scary i expect them to supplement with draws on credit lines, asset securitizations, or similar.

there's some evidence which indicates my q3/q4 assumptions may be overly pessimistic regarding model 3 units but will wait for further evidence before revising. i had to take model s/x estimates higher based on my delivery modeling, but i am still modeling historical back end "lightness" (meaning much fewer deliveries than normal in month 3 of quarter).

i'm also very skeptical that i haven't been aggressive enough with opex cuts. considering what they did to employees this week i speculate that the cuts to contractors (barnacle scraping) went much deeper. and considering how expensive contractors can be, there may be an opex reduction that is of similar magnitude to the employee cuts not modeled.

i had to go back and recheck the cash modeling. the reason is one time changes in opex were flowing thru into accrued liabilities, which was affecting cash incorrectly. there's still some difference vs. the first version in cash modeling, but it's mostly due to the relationship between opex and accrued liabilities shifting due to one time items and ongoing opex changes. i tried to account for these changes reasonably but make no claim to accuracy.

basically i could be more optimistic but am trying to keep things grounded in things i know with higher confidence. the q2 earnings report will provide more accurate insights.

also previously i had mentioned something about a podcast. i have since been contacted by the host and based on that discussion was delighted to learn the host came to similar conclusions independently.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q4-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q3-18e [/TD2][TD2] luv q2-18e [/TD2][TD2] Mar-18 [/TD2] [TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]15,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]11,738[/TD2] [TD2]13,000[/TD2][TD2]12,000[/TD2][TD2]10,500[/TD2][TD2]10,077[/TD2] [TD2] 28,000 [/TD2][TD2] 27,000 [/TD2][TD2] 22,500 [/TD2][TD2] 21,815 [/TD2] [TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 50,000 [/TD2][TD2] 23,000 [/TD2][TD2] 8,182 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 105.76 [/TD2] [TD2] 58.00 [/TD2][TD2] 60.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.00 [/TD2][TD2] 56.00 [/TD2] [TD2]2,641,520[/TD2][TD2]2,547,180[/TD2][TD2]2,122,650[/TD2][TD2]2,053,375[/TD2] [TD2]3,480,000[/TD2][TD2]3,000,000[/TD2][TD2]1,288,000[/TD2][TD2]458,192[/TD2] [TD2]187,201[/TD2][TD2]181,235[/TD2][TD2]175,540[/TD2][TD2]173,436[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]50,314[/TD2] [TD2] 6,408,721 [/TD2][TD2] 5,828,415 [/TD2][TD2] 3,586,190 [/TD2][TD2] 2,735,317 [/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]164,500[/TD2][TD2]185,022[/TD2] [TD2]220,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]225,000[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]275,000[/TD2][TD2]263,412[/TD2] [TD2] 7,108,721 [/TD2][TD2] 6,583,415 [/TD2][TD2] 4,300,690 [/TD2][TD2] 3,408,751 [/TD2] [TD2]1,973,445[/TD2][TD2]1,903,037[/TD2][TD2]1,588,315[/TD2][TD2]1,540,031[/TD2] [TD2]2,836,200[/TD2][TD2]2,490,000[/TD2][TD2]1,288,000[/TD2][TD2]551,366[/TD2] [TD2]119,809[/TD2][TD2]115,990[/TD2][TD2]112,345[/TD2][TD2]104,496[/TD2] [TD2] 4,929,454 [/TD2][TD2] 4,509,027 [/TD2][TD2] 2,988,660 [/TD2][TD2] 2,195,893 [/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]189,000[/TD2][TD2]180,950[/TD2][TD2]217,863[/TD2] [TD2]154,000[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]192,500[/TD2][TD2]157,500[/TD2] [TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]375,000[/TD2][TD2]384,000[/TD2][TD2]365,750[/TD2][TD2]369,969[/TD2] [TD2] 5,649,453 [/TD2][TD2] 5,285,526 [/TD2][TD2] 3,738,860 [/TD2][TD2] 2,952,225 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,459,269 [/TD2][TD2] 1,297,889 [/TD2][TD2] 561,829 [/TD2][TD2] 456,526 [/TD2] [TD2]28.5%[/TD2][TD2]28.6%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]27.8%[/TD2] [TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.0%[/TD2][TD2]26.1%[/TD2] [TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]17.0%[/TD2][TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-20.3%[/TD2] [TD2]21.9%[/TD2][TD2]21.3%[/TD2][TD2]16.7%[/TD2][TD2]18.2%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-5.0%[/TD2][TD2]-10.0%[/TD2][TD2]-17.7%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-28.0%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-40.5%[/TD2] [TD2]315,000[/TD2][TD2]309,060[/TD2][TD2]340,000[/TD2][TD2]322,096[/TD2] [TD2]510,000[/TD2][TD2]499,950[/TD2][TD2]550,000[/TD2][TD2]551,404[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]85,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]42,000[/TD2][TD2]40,905[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]132,000[/TD2][TD2]127,260[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]135,000[/TD2] [TD2] 999,000 [/TD2][TD2] 977,175 [/TD2][TD2] 1,160,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,053,500 [/TD2] [TD2] 460,269 [/TD2][TD2] 320,714 [/TD2][TD2] -598,171 [/TD2][TD2] -596,974 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]5,214[/TD2] [TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-107,000[/TD2][TD2]-102,546[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-47,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-37,716[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 294,269 [/TD2][TD2] 154,714 [/TD2][TD2] -764,171 [/TD2][TD2] -779,022 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]5,605[/TD2] [TD2] 274,270 [/TD2][TD2] 134,715 [/TD2][TD2] -784,171 [/TD2][TD2] -784,627 [/TD2] [TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-75,076[/TD2] [TD2] 324,271 [/TD2][TD2] 184,716 [/TD2][TD2] -734,171 [/TD2][TD2] -709,551 [/TD2] [TD2]172,000[/TD2][TD2]170,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2]183,000[/TD2][TD2]181,900[/TD2][TD2]170,000[/TD2][TD2]169,146[/TD2] [TD2] 1.77 [/TD2][TD2] 1.02 [/TD2][TD2] -4.32 [/TD2][TD2] -4.19 [/TD2] [TD2]324,271[/TD2][TD2]184,716[/TD2][TD2]-734,171[/TD2][TD2]-709,551[/TD2] [TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]457,271[/TD2][TD2]317,716[/TD2][TD2]-569,171[/TD2][TD2]-567,912[/TD2] [TD2] 2.50 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2][TD2] -3.35 [/TD2][TD2] -3.36 [/TD2] [TD2]1,975,795[/TD2][TD2]1,433,016[/TD2][TD2]1,849,758[/TD2][TD2]2,665,673[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]120,194[/TD2] [TD2]1,168,557[/TD2][TD2]1,082,205[/TD2][TD2]754,094[/TD2][TD2]652,848[/TD2] [TD2]4,457,650[/TD2][TD2]4,633,886[/TD2][TD2]3,523,748[/TD2][TD2]2,565,826[/TD2] [TD2]312,293[/TD2][TD2]305,001[/TD2][TD2]366,089[/TD2][TD2]379,379[/TD2] [TD2] 8,064,295 [/TD2][TD2] 7,584,107 [/TD2][TD2] 6,593,689 [/TD2][TD2] 6,383,920 [/TD2] [TD2]2,523,499[/TD2][TD2]2,443,550[/TD2][TD2]2,364,234[/TD2][TD2]2,315,124[/TD2] [TD2]6,345,887[/TD2][TD2]6,349,381[/TD2][TD2]6,352,910[/TD2][TD2]6,346,374[/TD2] [TD2]12,420,083[/TD2][TD2]11,695,516[/TD2][TD2]11,061,438[/TD2][TD2]10,519,226[/TD2] [TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]346,428[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]61,284[/TD2] [TD2]428,754[/TD2][TD2]435,754[/TD2][TD2]442,754[/TD2][TD2]449,754[/TD2] [TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]440,000[/TD2][TD2]433,841[/TD2] [TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]273,123[/TD2][TD2]415,478[/TD2] [TD2] 30,917,381 [/TD2][TD2] 29,643,170 [/TD2][TD2] 27,949,886 [/TD2][TD2] 27,271,429 [/TD2] [TD2]4,767,210[/TD2][TD2]4,691,810[/TD2][TD2]3,462,287[/TD2][TD2]2,603,498[/TD2] [TD2]1,998,000[/TD2][TD2]1,905,491[/TD2][TD2]1,913,500[/TD2][TD2]1,898,431[/TD2] [TD2]605,640[/TD2][TD2]586,452[/TD2][TD2]543,774[/TD2][TD2]536,465[/TD2] [TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]600,000[/TD2][TD2]629,112[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]984,823[/TD2] [TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,500,000[/TD2][TD2]1,800,000[/TD2][TD2]1,915,530[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 10,535,849 [/TD2][TD2] 10,348,753 [/TD2][TD2] 9,384,561 [/TD2][TD2] 8,650,359 [/TD2] [TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]9,200,000[/TD2][TD2]9,000,000[/TD2][TD2]8,761,070[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,556[/TD2] [TD2]883,225[/TD2][TD2]855,242[/TD2][TD2]827,482[/TD2][TD2]818,250[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]670,000[/TD2][TD2]700,000[/TD2][TD2]756,800[/TD2] [TD2]2,747,250[/TD2][TD2]2,638,373[/TD2][TD2]2,633,750[/TD2][TD2]2,561,886[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 23,818,943 [/TD2][TD2] 23,714,987 [/TD2][TD2] 22,548,412 [/TD2][TD2] 21,551,021 [/TD2] [TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]405,835[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]2[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]863,876[/TD2] [TD2] 5,795,495 [/TD2][TD2] 4,625,241 [/TD2][TD2] 4,098,532 [/TD2][TD2] 4,450,695 [/TD2] [TD2]274,270[/TD2][TD2]134,715[/TD2][TD2]-784,171[/TD2][TD2]-784,627[/TD2] [TD2]484,383[/TD2][TD2]456,125[/TD2][TD2]442,458[/TD2][TD2]416,233[/TD2] [TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]133,000[/TD2][TD2]165,000[/TD2][TD2]141,639[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]39,345[/TD2] [TD2]46,339[/TD2][TD2]35,237[/TD2][TD2]25,658[/TD2][TD2]18,546[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]52,237[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]47,661[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,984[/TD2] [TD2]-86,352[/TD2][TD2]-328,112[/TD2][TD2]-101,246[/TD2][TD2]-169,142[/TD2] [TD2]96,287[/TD2][TD2]-1,189,454[/TD2][TD2]-1,007,031[/TD2][TD2]-419,277[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,001[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-57,583[/TD2] [TD2]117,909[/TD2][TD2]1,171,514[/TD2][TD2]823,858[/TD2][TD2]317,983[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]65,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]45,795[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-19,823[/TD2][TD2]67,359[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-60,560[/TD2] [TD2] 1,230,835 [/TD2][TD2] 568,025 [/TD2][TD2] -315,297 [/TD2][TD2] -398,376 [/TD2] [TD2]-900,000[/TD2][TD2]-800,000[/TD2][TD2]-700,000[/TD2][TD2]-655,662[/TD2] [TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-60,000[/TD2][TD2]-70,000[/TD2][TD2]-72,975[/TD2] [TD2] -960,000 [/TD2][TD2] -860,000 [/TD2][TD2] -770,000 [/TD2][TD2] -728,637 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]1,775,481[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-400,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-1,389,388[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-17,500[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-87,092[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]94,018[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-18,787[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,913[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]73,704[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-52,942[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-2,921[/TD2] [TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] -142,000 [/TD2][TD2] 258,000 [/TD2][TD2] 371,660 [/TD2] [TD2]13,944[/TD2][TD2]17,232[/TD2][TD2]11,382[/TD2][TD2]10,102[/TD2] [TD2] 542,779 [/TD2][TD2] -416,743 [/TD2][TD2] -815,915 [/TD2][TD2] -745,251 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,433,016 [/TD2][TD2] 1,849,758 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2][TD2] 3,367,914 [/TD2] [TD2] 1,975,795 [/TD2][TD2] 1,433,016 [/TD2][TD2] 1,849,758 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2]

 

[Reality]

Sweet!


Question for you.


The 0% to 17% from Q2 to Q3 of M3 GM


If you plugged the same ASP as constant from Q2 to Q3 (4k per unit and 50k units in Q3) you get 200m. but your increase in GM % assumes 423m increase compares to the gm% in Q2.


Are we assuming all of this comes from depreciation that is not changing that much QoQ? (ie stuff that isnt tooling)

 

[gluu]

Have you considered what would happen to the financials if Tesla really does release V9 software in August with some basic FSD features? They would then be able to claim that revenue, as well as many upgrades occurring for new buyers and existing owners.

 

[luvb2b]

Have you considered what would happen to the financials if Tesla really does release V9 software in August with some basic FSD features? They would then be able to claim that revenue, as well as many upgrades occurring for new buyers and existing owners.

i'm found the autopilot description, i think the recent update enabling highway ramps may trigger some revenue recognition this quarter. anyone have good insights on that?

Enhanced Autopilot adds these new capabilities to the Tesla Autopilot driving experience. Your Tesla will match speed to traffic conditions, keep within a lane, automatically change lanes without requiring driver input, transition from one freeway to another, exit the freeway when your destination is near, self-park when near a parking spot and be summoned to and from your garage.​

and enabling of some fsd features in future quarters should trigger some revenue recognition there as well.

 

[gluu]

Take rate on EAP for model 3 is 67.7% and FSD is 9.7% according to Model 3 Invites Spreadsheet Published Web Version.

By end of Q3, assuming the S/X Fleet has similar take rates, with roughly ~170k AP2 S/X vehicles delivered, and 50k+23k+10k (8182 rounded up to include 2017 deliveries), there will be roughly 253k vehicles delivered with the ability to upgrade to FSD. The revenue recognition from a Q3 delivery of some basic FSD would give us roughly

253,000*.097*$3000 = 73.623 million added to revenue with 100% gross margin.

I'm not sure what percentage of EAP users would upgrade to FSD, but I'm assuming almost all of them would at this point.