I'm wondering if anyone in Bay area can go to Tesla factory RIGHT NOW and take a quick look at the number of cars in the parking lots. I suppose that can tell us if the there are weekend shifts or night shift. If yes it could also be a reason for the significant jump of cars in production mentioned in Mario’s post, and Q4 sales should be much higher than what estimated using the 570-600/week production rate. this will be an extremely important piece of information for Q3 ER where Q4 guidance will be given. I’m hoping someone can confirm or dismiss this.
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I'm wondering if anyone in Bay area can go to Tesla factory RIGHT NOW and take a quick look at the number of cars in the parking lots. I suppose that can tell us if the there are weekend shifts or night shift. If yes it could also be a reason for the significant jump of cars in production mentioned in Mario’s post, and Q4 sales should be much higher than what estimated using the 570-600/week production rate. this will be an extremely important piece of information for Q3 ER where Q4 guidance will be given. I’m hoping someone can confirm or dismiss this.
We know there is no 3rd shift yet. We are speculating when there will be one, meaning the supply constraints have been fixed. Once again we know they do not build cars on the weekend, once again due to supply constraints and trying to keep GM up.
Thanks for the update Richard for the factual evidence.
Like i said, we are after when its going to start happening. That is why i think its one of the guidnece things Elon will talk about. When the constraints are going to be cleared and when they are going to add a 3rd shift. They will not work weekends for 2 reasons, 1) they must keep GM up, so no OT and 2) they need the weekend time for mechanics to come in and preform the maintenance on the robots and other equipment.
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My order was confirmed just 5 days ago and it's still in the "sourcing parts" stage. At least this is not a glitch that affects everyone.
Thanks for the info. But what Mario described could still be an indication of constraints being cleared allowing 3rd shift to be added as you suggested? I'm still hoping someone who lives close to the Tesla factory can quickly check it out.
The 118.2 million is the average number of shares outstanding between the beginning and end of a quarter. GAAP was a loss; there can ne no dilution of shareholders' aliquots of profits if there are none. Non-GAAP showed a profit, hence the average number of shares outstanding was increased by assuming all vested options were exercised. The number of shares outstanding for month end following quarter end is shown on the 1st or 2nd page of the 10Q.
If any of this is true and not the cause of a software glitch and they make mention of it during the conference call, I can see a scenario where TSLA rockets to 200+ by the end of the week.
From Tesla Motors Forums:
skymaster | October 20, 2013
When I took the tour on 9/11, the production "goal" was 600 per week. They were running 2 shifts per day with a goal of 60 cars per shift. I don't know how the production could have increased much in the last 5 weeks. The guide told me that it will be difficult to increase production from 600 to 800 cars per week.
Q3 earnings | Forums | Tesla Motors
dmckinstry
Model X 2019
Whoa there, think ya meant $7.5K tax credit. If it were $75K Tesla would be selling millions of these things!
Yeh. After all, we're not talking about a Hummer here. Of course, not everyone could take advantage of a $75k credit.
600/week in mid-September and then 570/week in late October? Could production be going down??
Certainly possible... end of quarter push with some overtime. For cars to be delivered by the end of the quarter, they would have had to been made at the factory in the beginning couple of weeks of September. It takes a week or two to make it to customers (delivery to the SC's, scheduling delivery appointments, paperwork, etc.). That pace might have been unsustainable across the entire quarter.
Not sure - this is puzzling. It could be that production can fluctuate week to week. It could also be that either one of these two reports is not accurate.
BTW, does anybody still remember an article about Connecticut factory producing liners for the frunk and reports of it's planned ramp-up to produce 650 liners per week by early fall?
What’s a ‘frunk’? - News and information on Westfield and Mayville, NY - Westfield Republican | Mayville Sentinel News
"Jamestown Plastics' president Jay Baker disclosed Tesla wants 650 of the liners by early autumn."
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I think it is reasonable to think that production could fluctuate somewhat from week to week. Some factors that could cause this:
* Operators unavailable (due to illness, training etc.)
* Minor retooling
* Equipment failure
* Short supply of certain parts
* Fluctuation in number of almost finished cars from the week before
* Use of overtime
* Simply having a good week vs. a bad week
The fact that they had a 600 cars/week target does not mean they made it. So one explanation could also be that after too many weeks of not making a 600 car target, they went down to 570.
* Operators unavailable (due to illness, training etc.)
* Minor retooling
* Equipment failure
* Short supply of certain parts
* Fluctuation in number of almost finished cars from the week before
* Use of overtime
* Simply having a good week vs. a bad week
The fact that they had a 600 cars/week target does not mean they made it. So one explanation could also be that after too many weeks of not making a 600 car target, they went down to 570.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
After a call with Tesla I can say the In Production is for real. However there's some further fine print. The In Production change means that the factory has been able to source all components for the car and it has moved from sourcing to production queue. It's now still queued for actual factory floor scheduling that depends on the factory throughput, patching and how many cars there are in similar queue in front of me, but it means those are the only constraints now.
What my take is from this massive change to In Production on Nov 1st and then over the weekend for others is that some kind of supplier issue was resolved in a major way allowing Tesla to finalize the sourcing of components for a lot of cars. This is of interest for investors because if that assumption is correct and Tesla was indeed able to resolve some final bottlenecks in supply, then now the only thing holding them back is the ramping up of their factory line. Once that goes high enough they can add 3rd shift and start preparing next line. We may as well hear on the Q3 CC about resolved supply issues and good guidance on ramp-up.
What my take is from this massive change to In Production on Nov 1st and then over the weekend for others is that some kind of supplier issue was resolved in a major way allowing Tesla to finalize the sourcing of components for a lot of cars. This is of interest for investors because if that assumption is correct and Tesla was indeed able to resolve some final bottlenecks in supply, then now the only thing holding them back is the ramping up of their factory line. Once that goes high enough they can add 3rd shift and start preparing next line. We may as well hear on the Q3 CC about resolved supply issues and good guidance on ramp-up.
First of all, congratulations on your ordering status being accelerated. The sooner more people can own these awesome cars, the better!
This is also great news from an investor standpoint. News of this probably won't be out until after earnings release/conference call, which also means late Tuesday or early Wednesday when the mainstream news outlets pick it up thus triggering the market reaction. But yes, I can see TSLA rocketing very close to all time highs by the end of the week. (I originally said possibly 200+ by then but I prefer to set the bar a little lower and hope for surprise.)
Two things pre and post earnings. 1) If TSLA manages to find itself back around the 180s pre-earnings, I don't think we'll have too much to worry about after earnings so long as...... 2) News of this ramp up in production is featured during the conference call and not an afterthought.
With that, a raise in guidance is exactly the catalyst that's needed to bring momentum back to the stock price. I can see TSLA trading well above 200 before the end of the year.
OEMs often test improved capacity and return back to demand output. Also end of quarter rush is common.
Just came across this article. Delivery numbers seem really optimistic (vs the numbers suggested by many of you guys)
Thoughts?
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 Earnings Preview: Analysts Are Optimistic
Thoughts?
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) Q3 Earnings Preview: Analysts Are Optimistic
I got worried. I'm not sure they are beating these overoptimistic numbers.
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The difference between US and International sales in the article is 620. Coincidence that there were 619 registrations in Norway in August? Or has someone just seen that one number and added it to the US sales? They didn't link source Thompson Reuter article/report either, so it is hard to verify what this really represents. I find it hard to believe that the article correctly represents analyst's opinions, actually.
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