DonPedro
Member
5580 is on par with that i have seen from Andrea James, DB and Baird. All three of them were quoted saying around 5500
Yes, but that was total, not just US. Maybe Valuewalk added international without understanding that.
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5580 is on par with that i have seen from Andrea James, DB and Baird. All three of them were quoted saying around 5500
Ahh yes, my mistake. I think the English on this one is poor. This is my understanding of what they are saying by using two different words to explain those numbers:
They are getting "Deliveries" of 5580 (Cars recognized in Q3 Revenue) but "Sales" of 6200 in Q3 (Meaning 6200-5580 = 620 in transit)
Reverse psychology from the bears perhaps? I'm thinking if the rumor of them ramping up production is true, these numbers won't really matter as much anyways.Just saw a Montly Fool article as well as another toss out the 6200 number. I hope people actually dont thing that the actual consensus.
Can we get the latest Wall str consensus estimates posted here?
CNBC...for what it is worth: 5,700 deliveries (below 5,400, not good), 16- 20% GM, 21,000 yearlyCan we get the latest Wall str consensus estimates posted here?
FWIW, here is my estimate:
Non-GAAP
Cars and CARB credits 673.200 Deliveries 6600
ZEV credits 25.000 ASP (k$) 102
Development services 1.000 GM ex ZEV (k$) 21,5 %
Total revenues 699.200 EU deliveries 1.260
Gross profit 169.953
R&D expenses 55.000
Selling, G&A expenses 60.000
Net income 54.953
Net income/share 0,45
GAAP
Revenues (non-GAAP) 699.200
Deferred due to lease accounting 185.031
Revenues (GAAP) 514.169
Net income (non-GAAP) 54.953
Deferred profit -38.116
Stock based comp -23.000
Non-cash interest on convertibles) -1.791
Net Income (loss) (GAAP) -7.954
EPS GAAP -0,07
Wow. I hope you are right, but I think you are high.
Well...i am on painkillers (backache) but i dont feel high. :-D /scnr
Davet,
I agree with you that by itself the assignment of VINs is not a reliable indicator. That is sort of my reason for my Q2 analysis first to show a metric on HOW unreliable the VINS are and how I came up with my magic PROPORTION (83.9%) number noted below. I first looked at Q2 actual deliveries (5150) and compared it to the difference between actual delivered cars VINs at start of Q2 to end of Q2. 5150 turns out to be 83.9% of that number. Therefore, I took that same PROPORTION (83.9%) and applied it to the difference between actual delivered cars VINs at start of Q3 to end of Q3.
i think the 83.9% PROPORTION is key for my estimate, and am tempted to do the same thing for Q1 to see if its also close to 83.9% but there were no cars being made for Europe at the end of Q1 and if I remember correct they had a lot of temp workers in Q1 so those two things combined I'm not sure if that would make a completely different PROPORTION number or not.
If you or anyone can tell me what they think the fallacies in using this 83.9% PROPORTION method are then please let me know
I'm not sure how people got to the point of expecting more than this. This (570) is a phenomenal number and should be celebrated! Manufacturing is a complex dance and you don't get to a number like this without a lot of effort.
Congrats to all the folks on the line and supporting functions who made this happen.
Here's to seeing 600/week by EOY.
I am having hard time to believe that Tesla will deliver less than 5000 - 7000 cars to Europe. After all both Elon and Guillen (interview with German Manager Magazin) stating that Tesla is doing everything possible to deliver cars to European customers who waited so long. I would not dismiss Elons words during the Geneva auto show so easily.
Tesla Motors, Inc. – Third Quarter 2013 Shareholder Letter
• Record 5,500 Model S deliveries
• Gross margin increased to 21% (non-GAAP) excluding ZEV credits
• Net income (non-GAAP) of $16 million
• Major WW expansion of service centers, stores and Superchargers
• Cash balance nonetheless increased by $49 million to $796 million
• Ramping production to meet growing demand in 2014
HTML: http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingid=1193125-13-427630&CIK=1318605
PDF: http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...93125-13-427630/1318605/1193125-13-427630.pdf