Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations

[kenliles]

Thanks. So what was the correct gaap estimate?

Actual
non-GAAP $761M
GAAP $677M

I don't know what the GAAP estimate(s) were as most estimates are made non-GAAP

 

[chickensevil]

Thanks. So what was the correct gaap estimate?

The best I could find would be a GAAP EPS of (.02). I would assume you could multiply that up by the number of shares minus add back in the expected expenses and get the GAAP estimated revenue. Unless you are a short on the stock all most people have been concerning themselves with is non-GAAP and then cash flow. That should really paint the important pictures for the immediate time being. The question of if their GAAP numbers will bite them in the ass or not will not actually come until 2016 when the first of the buy backs become eligible.

 

[FANGO]

The best I could find would be a GAAP EPS of (.02). I would assume you could multiply that up by the number of shares minus add back in the expected expenses and get the GAAP estimated revenue. Unless you are a short on the stock all most people have been concerning themselves with is non-GAAP and then cash flow. That should really paint the important pictures for the immediate time being. The question of if their GAAP numbers will bite them in the ass or not will not actually come until 2016 when the first of the buy backs become eligible.

I bet Tesla will not spend a single cent on the buy back program. In fact it will produce a profit from CPO cars.

 

[chickensevil]

I bet Tesla will not spend a single cent on the buy back program. In fact it will produce a profit from CPO cars.

That's my thought as well, the only downside here is that they have a financial incentive to make sure that the resale price stays up... which means I wouldn't expect the price of the Model S (new) to come down at all any time soon.

 

[gym7rjm]

That's my thought as well, the only downside here is that they have a financial incentive to make sure that the resale price stays up... which means I wouldn't expect the price of the Model S (new) to come down at all any time soon.

As an investor I don't want to see the S price come down ever I would suspect the stock gains associated with having a very high profit margin would benefit my portfolio a lot more than a cost reduction when I am in the market for an S.

I also believe that the Model E will have a huge range of offerings: from bare-bones starting at $35k going all the way up to an "M3 Destroyer" in the $60-70k range. If you can't shell out for the S, the E will have you covered.

When the gross margin for the S gets to the point they want it... 30-40%? They could then reinvest in luxury upgrades and technology as battery prices fall rather than reducing the price. This would keep the S at the top for a very long time and keep investors very happy.

 

[chickensevil]

As an investor I don't want to see the S price come down ever I would suspect the stock gains associated with having a very high profit margin would benefit my portfolio a lot more than a cost reduction when I am in the market for an S.

I also believe that the Model E will have a huge range of offerings: from bare-bones starting at $35k going all the way up to an "M3 Destroyer" in the $60-70k range. If you can't shell out for the S, the E will have you covered.

When the gross margin for the S gets to the point they want it... 30-40%? They could then reinvest in luxury upgrades and technology as battery prices fall rather than reducing the price. This would keep the S at the top for a very long time and keep investors very happy.

Adding new features and selling the car for the same price as before is the same thing as a price drop. Which does in fact hurt your resale value. Why would I want your used 2013 when a used 2014 has all these extra features (as an example). Right now the price of the car has only gone up. Any new features they have added are an additional fee into the car, and many old features have had the prices adjusted to be more expensive. At some point they are going to have to adjust the price back down and roll some of those features into the cars base price. That is your price drop.

the biggest price drop is going to be when the cost of batteries come down to a level that they stop selling the S60, the 85 becomes the new "base model" and they start selling a 110(or similar). I fully expect this to happen since it is not unreasonable to expect 400+ miles of real highway driving range on a large luxury sedan. These cars have 20 gallon tanks in them and at 20 mpg that's 400 miles...

 

[Robert.Boston]

Moderator's Note: I split off the discussion about Business Case for Better Range