chickensevil
Active Member
Well unless demand ends up higher than 50k a year, because by end of 2014 they will only be running at 50k a year (1000 a week) run rate.
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Q4 2013 results - data points, projections and expectations
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Well unless demand ends up higher than 50k a year, because by end of 2014 they will only be running at 50k a year (1000 a week) run rate.
I designed a P85 with everything except extended leather, HPWC and the extra lighting package for $106,800.
However, I had not considered foreign exchange advantages no signatures. How many EU sigs were there? Those would also help bring that average up.
I was just a bit taken aback as our Sig wasn't that much, our 60kWh was $30k less than that, and I just didn't think that many Performance plus packages were being sold.
That price must be after the $7500 tax credit... it would be ~$114,500 without that, and that's the price that Tesla gets paid.
I left out the performance seats and wheel upgrades in addition to the options you mentioned.
Krugerrand
Meow
No. They wouldn't be making factory upgrades this year to top out at the 2014 year end run rate, knowing full well that Model X has to go into full production in 2015. Whatever upgrades they make will be able to handle S and X demand for 2015+.
chickensevil
Active Member
But that is on the assumption that demand will be 1000 a week for the S. Which, really is a good guess to overshoot on demand... But it is still possible that it is higher. He (Elon) did say during the CC that they could go higher than 1000 a week it would just depend on if the demand is there to need them to go higher.
all I was suggesting is, there is a chance (pretty small one) that demand for the S won't be satisfied at 50k a year. Also I wouldn't expect the X run rate to match the S run rate until maybe 2016. So who knows how long that one will be production constrained.
Benz
Active Member
Interesting to hear that they will not be able to satisfy demand in China.
Deepak Ahuja: "Lots of demand in China". Elon Musk: "Based on current trends, we will be unable to satisfy demand in China".
The demand will be there in 2014 (more than 50,000 new reservations for the Tesla Model S). But even with the new production line they will not be able to satisfy demand. And therefore they will need to invest more in production capacity in 2015 as well (and also in the years ahead).
How many reservations exist for China right now?
Ms. Wu, in late January of 2014, said that "several hundreds" of reservations have been received since August. Why wouldn't she say thousands?
Tesla to Sell Model S Sedan in China From $121,000 - Bloomberg
What I heard Musk say on the Q/A call:
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla Motors Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha
Can you translate the "Elon speak" to reality as stated below?
Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
At the same time, we see very good demand in China and a lot of the emerging right-hand drive markets.
Elon R. Musk - Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yes, absolutely. Yes, I mean -- I think, based on current trends it seems unlikely that we'll be able to satisfy demand in China this year. So there will be unmet -- likely to be, I think, unmet demand in China.
Ms. Wu, in late January of 2014, said that "several hundreds" of reservations have been received since August. Why wouldn't she say thousands?
Tesla to Sell Model S Sedan in China From $121,000 - Bloomberg
What I heard Musk say on the Q/A call:
Tesla Motors Inc (TSLA) news: Tesla Motors Management Discusses Q4 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript - Seeking Alpha
Can you translate the "Elon speak" to reality as stated below?
Deepak Ahuja - Chief Financial Officer and Principal Accounting Officer
At the same time, we see very good demand in China and a lot of the emerging right-hand drive markets.
Elon R. Musk - Co-Founder, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and Product Architect
Yes, absolutely. Yes, I mean -- I think, based on current trends it seems unlikely that we'll be able to satisfy demand in China this year. So there will be unmet -- likely to be, I think, unmet demand in China.
chickensevil
Active Member
Lets put it this way, they said they were planning to have 50% of the new production increase this year be allocated to China. So assuming 35k (the low end) against the 22k last year, that would make 13k additional this year. Half of that is 7,500 cars already slated for China this year. If demand is unable to be met in China this year, then clearly it is going to be higher than 7,500. To put that into perspective, they are planning 7400 run rate for Q1...
Krugerrand
Meow
You missed the part where they are making a line that will handle S and X together, so there's not a chance the line will top out at a 50k rate.
Benz
Active Member
It will be interesting to find out at what weekly production rate the Tesla factory in Freemont (including the new operational production line) will have reached its top weekly production capacity.
chickensevil
Active Member
Not really having any concrete insights, let me just correct your math a little bit. Half of 13k is 6k5, right? The rest of your conjecture stands for you ...although interesting!
Bah! Your right, good catch! I still think that is a decent start for china at 6.5k
50k is just assuming S builds. I was also assuming they would build up to the same number (maybe a little more) on the X. But it isn't a static line, parts of the production is interchangeable and some won't be. Elon said in the CC that it isn't that they "added a second line" they have added to specific parts or doubled in certain areas, to up the production.
Krugerrand
Meow
Yes, I know 50k was assuming S builds. And Tesla is to be at a 1k/week run rate at the end of 2014 and that 1k/wk will be 99.99% Model S's (50k/yr) since X doesn't go into full production until Q2 2015. So again, there's no way the new line for S and X tops out at 1k/wk run rate because Tesla is building the line for S AND X; they already are getting a better idea of S worldwide demand and they feel X will be even more popular. So, even if Model S becomes a 50k/yr demand, there should not be longer wait times because of a line that can't handle the demand. That's what Benz was originally asking about.
Benz
Active Member
If I would have to make a guess, then I would say that Tesla will be able to produce about 1,600 S+X EV's per week as from January 2015. Meaning that the production capacity will be more than what they actually (currently) are expected to be producing by then. Elon Musk spoke about the "real high volume next generation production line" during the Conference Call of the Q3 2013 Earnings Report in November 2013.
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