Q4 Financials, No 2017 Model 3 for new buyers?

[Trips]

"Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September. Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

If they somehow produced 5,000 vehicles a week starting September 1st. That would be 80,000 total for 2017. After you account for employees and current owners I do not see new buyers getting a car.

Based on those statements I could see 500 per week starting September 1st, adding 500 per week giving them 6,000/week in late December. That would only be 39,000 cars produced in 2017.

What am I missing here?

 

[Trips]

More on this over at Summary of Model 3 Related Info From Shareholder Letter

They beat me to it.

 

[igotzzoom]

Realistically, I never expected to get my car in calendar '17. Not a current owner, but reserved evening of 3/31 and I live on the West Coast, so should be next in line after employees and current owners.

 

[RedModel3]

What on earth made you think that new buyers would ever get their cars in 2017? Maybe in California. Just gives me more time to save up.

 

[jgillispie]

Everything seems on track so far with their initial delivery estimates. Q1 and Q2 '18 for most of the early reservation holders.

 

[S'toon]

When I made my reservation I was fully expecting a 2019 or 2020 delivery date, based on Tesla's timelines. It was after the reveal date they ramped up the production dates and estimates.

 

[jelloslug]

A new buyer would be lucky to get one in '18 at this point. I would guess that there are 500,000 reservations right now.

 

[dsvick]

A new buyer would be lucky to get one in '18 at this point. I would guess that there are 500,000 reservations right now.

I think the OP meant "new" as in not a prior owner. You're right though, a person that places a new reservation right now would likely not see theirs until 2019 some time.

 

[McHoffa]

By their ramp up estimates, they would produce over 80,000 Model 3s by the end of the year. We all know the US will get first deliveries. They were at 115k preorders 15 minutes into the reveal, so let's assume 100k when the reveal started. Let's also assume half are outside the US. That's only 50k US orders, probably double that by the end of the night. I would guess they're going to fill orders for people who stood in line as quickly as they can, even if they're on east coast.

 

[Sonny Daze]

"Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September. Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

It's funny how I have seen projections anywhere from 36,000 to 80,000 in 2017 using that same quote. Easy to tell who is optimistic and who is not.

 

[dsvick]

"Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September. Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

It's funny how I have seen projections anywhere from 36,000 to 80,000 in 2017 using that same quote. Easy to tell who is optimistic and who is not.

People are also figuring in the supplier delivery guidance of 1,000 per week in July, 2,000 per week in August, and 4,000 a week in September. So, a best case scenario, has them building 4,000 cars a week starting sometime in September. Let's say they want the parts delivered two weeks before they need them (probably shorter than that but that makes the math easier) and that they can deliver everything they produce up to the middle of December. That would give us 1,000 a week for four weeks, 2,000 a week for four weeks, and 4,000 a week for 10 weeks. (I know I cut time off the calendar too, but hey, math is hard)...
With all of that I get 52,000, maybe a few thousand more if they hit the 5,000 per week mark in early December.

 

[EXOTIC1]

"Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September. Our Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018."

It's funny how I have seen projections anywhere from 36,000 to 80,000 in 2017 using that same quote. Easy to tell who is optimistic and who is not.

I think it'll be closer to 10,000 cars by end of 2017 at the most

 

[Sonny Daze]

I think it'll be closer to 10,000 cars by end of 2017 at the most

Do I hear 9,000?

 

[Model 3]

It's funny how I have seen projections anywhere from 36,000 to 80,000 in 2017 using that same quote. Easy to tell who is optimistic and who is not.

And now you have seen an projection to 10,000 9,000. Easy to tell who is pessimistic and who is not

 

[Az_Rael]

They were at 115k preorders 15 minutes into the reveal, so let's assume 100k when the reveal started. Let's also assume half are outside the US. That's only 50k US orders, probably double that by the end of the night. I would guess they're going to fill orders for people who stood in line as quickly as they can, even if they're on east coast.

Don't forget about owners. They will jump ahead in line even if they didn't reserve on reveal night.

 

[JeffK]

Don't forget about owners. They will jump ahead in line even if they didn't reserve on reveal night.

It's probably a weighted priority. I can't imagine a current owner getting a reservation today and jumping the line.

 

[Az_Rael]

It's probably a weighted priority. I can't imagine a current owner getting a reservation today and jumping the line.

True, but we know they were promoting the benefit quite heavily for at least a few weeks after the reveal, so there will be some amount of owners who will be eligible to jump in line. Only Tesla knows how significant those numbers are.

I will be interested to see when I am invited to configure. I didnt become an owner until December so pretty late in the game. I reserved during the reveal, so about 100k in. If I am invited to configure with the other owners, ahead of non-owner line waiters, that will be interesting.

 

[S3XY]

At least you ordered on the same day as us non-owner line waiters. I wouldn't begrudge you that.

 

[McHoffa]

I'd be kinda frustrated if I waited in line 3+ hours but missed getting my first one this year (I preordered a second one 15 minutes before reveal) and possibly missing out on the tax credit while an existing owner preordered a week later and gets the tax credit a second or third time.

 

[ummgood]

I'd be kinda frustrated if I waited in line 3+ hours but missed getting my first one this year (I preordered a second one 15 minutes before reveal) and possibly missing out on the tax credit while an existing owner preordered a week later and gets the tax credit a second or third time.

Good news is you should be getting the rebate hopefully if you waited in line. Based on the calculator I am hopefully getting my car around Feb 2018. The pessimistic estimation is full tax credit should be available through March. I am with you though. I even wouldn't mind if everyone in the first month who already had a tesla and reserved cut in front of me. What would annoy me is someone who reserved today would get in front of me after I have had a reservation in for an entire year.