Question about EV Value and environmental impact

[willowspuppy]

OP, if you haven't already, I highly suggest taking a look at
How Tesla Will Change The World - Wait But Why

 

[MB30]

I have to say i feel pretty fortunate to know exactly where the power for my car will be coming. My PV array has been over producing my needs since i've gotten it and i've just been selling it back to the utility company. I'm really excited to put that energy to a better use. Literally every single time i go to a gas station it makes me mad. I can't wait.

 

[Topher]

But I don't think it changes my point that for a person looking to lessen their enviro footprint with funds that are not enough to cover both PV and EV, PV + ICE is much smarter than EV+grid.

Got numbers to go with that feeling?

Or perhaps a better way of phrasing it is: Which way gets you to PV and EV faster?

Thank you kindly.

 

[Craig9080]

I just need to show my support for nuclear power since it's close to the topic at hand and seems to get a bad rap. Nuclear power has the highest reliability and safety record of any power production form in the US and is cleaner than any other production method that burns something. Although it has a waste product, instead of spouting it out into the air for someone else to deal with it, all the waste is in an incredibly concentrated form that can be sealed away where it will become safe overtime. It always gets on me when people crap on coal and nuclear power in the same sentence. How do you think we get rid of coal? Turbines and panels are great but nuclear has the capacity to phase out coal in half a decade if all of the red tape and ill-informed voters would move out of the way.

 

[SageBrush]

Got numbers to go with that feeling?
Thank you kindly.

Sure thing ... the abbreviated version:
PV costs about $2 a watt and produces somewhere in the range of 30 - 50 kWh of clean energy over its lifetime, so about 4 - 7 cents per clean kWh and with 1 - 2 lbs of CO2 displacement per kWh, cost ranges from as low as 2 cents to as high as 7 cents per CO2 lb averted. Note that this is before the savings of not buying grid energy is accounted for.

Say an EV is good for 100,000 - 150,00 miles of an ICE displaced
Additional cost for an M3 with $7500 tax credit: $7,500
Displacement Vs a 30 mpg ICE: 24 lbs of CO2 per gallon, and 3300 - 5000 gallons averted use. But
Median grid use is ~ 50 MPG car equivalent, so the EV has 2000 - 3000 gallons of CO2e emissions
Total savings then is 1300 - 2000 gallons, and at 24 lbs CO2/lb, 31200 - 48,000 lbs displaced.
Cost: 750000/31200 -- 750000/48000, or 24 - 15 cents per lb averted.

Note that I tried to slant the numbers towards the EV. If I had used a 50 MPG hybrid it would have gotten ugly ;-)

 

[Topher]

Although it has a waste product, instead of spouting it out into the air for someone else to deal with it, all the waste is in an incredibly concentrated form that can be sealed away where it will become safe overtime.

You can build a new plant when you come get the waste from the last one, that is sitting waiting a few miles from my house, and insure it through regular insurers (i.e. not government).

nuclear has the capacity to phase out coal in half a decade if all of the red tape and ill-informed voters would move out of the way.

On the other hand, I will remove my entire (direct) fossil fuel budget this spring, and when the model ≡ arrives.

Thank you kindly.

 

[ohmman]

We have a very long and thorough discussion on nuclear power in this thread. That's a great place to continue any discussion on the topic.

 

[MP3Mike]

On the other hand, I will remove my entire (direct) fossil fuel budget this spring, and when the model ≡ arrives.

Don't you mean the Spring of 2018? (That wouldn't be this Spring.)

 

[vinnie97]

I think a consequence of owning an EV is that it makes you more attentive to your energy use and the benefits of solar power. Before owning an EV, I knew that I was paying an electric bill every month, but I wasn't really that aware of the potential cost savings from having my own solar array at home. Owning an EV was the motivating factor in checking out the details and options. I was stunned to discover what a no-brainer it was to install a solar power system. Because of the high cost of electricity (and the fact that my utility has a tiered rate structure where the more I use, the more I pay per kWh) I was able to take the money I was spending on electricity and redirect it as payments on a home equity loan used to pay for the solar array. Not only does it produce enough energy to supply my home, and Model S, but there's enough left over for our Model 3 when it arrives. After 10 years (or maybe less) the loan will be paid off and the solar array will produce energy for at least another 15 years.

I did exactly what you did (7 more years of said home equity loan to go), but I have since dumped natural gas (and the associated gas furnace + water heater) to find my tiny PV system to be inadequate. If/when I get the Model 3 (a reservation means nothing, since I'm on shaky financial ground), that will put me at an even greater deficit for which I'll have to add on to the PV system (and accrue more debt). This can work out for the well heeled, but those who have tight budgets might find the break-even point takes too long to reach. My particular case has a lot to do with budgeting and living within my means, but I don't think I'm alone in this regard.

 

[Maynerd]

Anyone know what the environmental impact of the batteries when they start going bad?

 

[omgwtfbyobbq]

Sure thing ... the abbreviated version:
PV costs about $2 a watt and produces somewhere in the range of 30 - 50 kWh of clean energy over its lifetime, so about 4 - 7 cents per clean kWh and with 1 - 2 lbs of CO2 displacement per kWh, cost ranges from as low as 2 cents to as high as 7 cents per CO2 lb averted. Note that this is before the savings of not buying grid energy is accounted for.

Say an EV is good for 100,000 - 150,00 miles of an ICE displaced
Additional cost for an M3 with $7500 tax credit: $7,500
Displacement Vs a 30 mpg ICE: 24 lbs of CO2 per gallon, and 3300 - 5000 gallons averted use. But
Median grid use is ~ 50 MPG car equivalent, so the EV has 2000 - 3000 gallons of CO2e emissions
Total savings then is 1300 - 2000 gallons, and at 24 lbs CO2/lb, 31200 - 48,000 lbs displaced.
Cost: 750000/31200 -- 750000/48000, or 24 - 15 cents per lb averted.

Note that I tried to slant the numbers towards the EV. If I had used a 50 MPG hybrid it would have gotten ugly ;-)

The only thing I can think of is maybe using the sales weight mpge for both EVs (68mpge) and whatever it is for other cars (~26mpg I think?).

http://www.ucsusa.org/clean-vehicles/electric-vehicles/life-cycle-ev-emissions#.VwwolHYrLnA

I don't see anything wrong with comparing a 50mpge EV to a 50mpg hybrid, but if you're going to establish a range of costs, I'd look in the other direction too, and also at the carbon intensity of local generation over time. A Leaf in the dirties areas is still only at ~43mpg, which is pretty bad. That $7.5k tax credit is resulting in higher GHG emissions. In 5 years, that'll probably change. On the flip side, someone with PV panels in CA could get down to ~5c per lb of CO2 averted compared to a 30mpg car.

 

[deonb]

Anyone know what the environmental impact of the batteries when they start going bad?

Tesla's Closed Loop Battery Recycling Program

 

[SageBrush]

but I have since dumped natural gas (and the associated gas furnace + water heater) to find my tiny PV system to be inadequate

Bummer. I'd like to hear details since it is on my wish list to do the same.

 

[int32_t]

I currently drive a 2001 BMW 3 series and have started thinking about buying a newer car. I watched the recent Tesla Model 3 presentation and was really impressed. One sticky point for me, not specific to Tesla but any EV platform has to so with where the power comes from. Specifically, if most EV drivers plug the car into their home system for power, aren’t they using coal or nuclear from local power company? Also, I see over 3,000 Supercharger locations in the U.S. where do they source power from? What is the argument for how this helps the environment.

Thanks in advance for educating me.

Fun fact: I live in Alberta, where the vast majority electricity is generated by coal. I entered data collected from a 2003 Honda Accord from each fill up (that's 13 years' worth of data from this 7 l/100km or 33 mpg vehicle) into a spreadsheet and determined the total amount of fuel burned. I determined the amount of carbon produced from that action. Then I did some research to find out how much electricity it takes to refine gasoline. Turns out it's 8 kWh, give or take, per litre of gasoline refined from oil. So I calculated the quantity of carbon produced by generating that amount of electricity from coal. I did not take into account any further oil-related impacts such as drilling/fracking/oil-sanding, transporting, etc.

After that I used Tesla's numbers for wh/km to figure out how much electricity a Model S would consume to go the same distance our Accord had gone over the years, and calculated the 100%-coal carbon footprint for producing that electricity.

The result: a Model S (a larger, far heavier sedan with much more trunk/frunk capacity) would produce about 30% fewer carbon emissions than even a very fuel-efficient Honda sedan. Now that's something!

Plus the electric grid is getting cleaner every year as more renewables come online. And, if you don't like electricity prices, you can make your own with a solar array. Try that with gasoline!

 

[Topher]

Don't you mean the Spring of 2018? (That wouldn't be this Spring.)

No. I mean part of it this spring, and the rest when the model ≡ arrives. Sorry, if that was confusing.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Topher]

This can work out for the well heeled, but those who have tight budgets might find the break-even point takes too long to reach.

For me, solar panels are a way to increase my current cash flow, so I will have the money for a Model ≡. In my area (not exactly sun central) loan payments for a solar system are cheaper than the electric bill they replace. So the only remaining issue is credit limits. Perhaps that same is true for you; investigate it.

Thank you kindly.

 

[Topher]

Bummer. I'd like to hear details since it is on my wish list to do the same.

Convert your usage of natural gas (at a rate of 28 kWh per Therm) and ask your local solar guy for a conversion of peak kW of panels to kWh per year.

Thank you kindly.

 

[int32_t]

The big question going forward is if electric vehicles really make some major gains, how will the grids handle a massive increase in loads. Hopefully distributed solar and advancements in energy storage can mitigate some of the impact. But it's still going to be a massive shift in the way energy is produced and distributed in the country.

Time-of-use charges will relegate EV charging to overnight usage quickly and easily. The result will be a smoother flow of power (smaller relative peaks at high demand times) which is beneficial for coal-fired plants anyways since they can't ramp up and down rapidly.

 

[int32_t]

... all the waste is in an incredibly concentrated form that can be sealed away where it will become safe over time. It always gets on me when people crap on coal and nuclear power in the same sentence. How do you think we get rid of coal? Turbines and panels are great but nuclear has the capacity to phase out coal in half a decade if all of the red tape and ill-informed voters would move out of the way.

Safe practically never. Sorry, I'm all for solar electricity (and wind and hydro, since there are ways for fish to be treated well).

I think solar power and industrial Tesla Power Packs is the way to go. Of course, energy efficiency will have to lead the way or else it will be cost-prohibitive. But that might never happen ... we still flush our toilets with CLEAN DRINKING WATER like 21-st century cavemen!

 

[Craig9080]

Safe practically never. Sorry, I'm all for solar electricity (and wind and hydro, since there are ways for fish to be treated well).

I think solar power and industrial Tesla Power Packs is the way to go. Of course, energy efficiency will have to lead the way or else it will be cost-prohibitive. But that might never happen ... we still flush our toilets with CLEAN DRINKING WATER like 21-st century cavemen!

I agree that we are talking about hundreds of thousands of years; however, hydrocarbon dependance will due us in far before that. On another note, numbers!

• It would cost over $29 Trillion to generate America’s baseload electric power with a 50 / 50 mix of wind and solar farms, on parcels of land totaling the area of Indiana. Or:

• It would cost over $18 Trillion with Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) farms in the southwest deserts, on parcels of land totaling the area of West Virginia. Or:

• We could do it for less than $3 Trillion with AP-1000 Light Water Reactors, on parcels totaling a few square miles. Or:

• We could do it for $1 Trillion with liquid-fueled Molten Salt Reactors, on the same amount of land, but with no water cooling, no risk of meltdowns, and the ability to use our stockpiles of nuclear “waste” as a secondary fuel.