Yep, and with delivery estimates now in September of next year, it's just a roll of the dice whether ordering today is patient enough or not!
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Redesign/4680 "Holdout Buyers" Discussion
- Thread starter Gsxr150
- Start date
I'd be ordering a Performance - delivery estimates are December, next month. I wish the Performance was next Summer, then I'd be 100% on gambling $250.
brandon8387
Member
Leading ain’t for Everyone.
We have 2 working good cars and I’m buying the Cybertruck whenever it ships. So if I get a new one, that means it’ll be my long term driver and the current Model Y will be trade-in for the Cybertruck.
So while I appreciate the more subtle things the 4680 cells enable, it’s not really worth the expense unless there are significant enough updates.
brandon8387
Member
New door panels? Interior i assume? What’s changed?Just goes to show how different opinions are on these. We actually liked the older (current) white door panels... and from the comparison pictures we've seen, it looks like the non-matrix headlights have a much more pleasant beam pattern (optimized for the North-American regulations, with more side coverage / less harsh cutoffs), so I'm happy we got those too.
brandon8387
Member
Leasers typically don’t intend to keep the car. So why would buy out restrictions make a difference?
nomorefuel
Member
I ordered my Model Y (LR) on 10/30 and was told the 4680's might not make it into the Y until Q4, I have the same delivery date as you (June) so we would probably not get them. I have mixed feelings about the castings. They are great on paper, and great to reduct cost for Tesla, but in the event that pack has to come out for repair, Yikes!!!! How do you keep the car from collapsing. Same thing if the car is in an accident.
I don’t know who you talked to, but Tesla customer service employees don’t really have an inside line on this.
Let's try to estimate 4680 timeline ourselves.
1) As we write here, 4680s are being produced in Fremont as mentioned by Musk on several occasions. They should go somewhere and will go into something else other than scrap . It is reasonable to believe that Tesla already has some 4680s for a smaller scale MY production and most likely they are used right now for validating and final production tuneup of the structural pack design.
2) Equipment for 4680 production is being installed at Austin right now. This means that (a) Tesla already knows how to mass produce 4680s and (b) is building the mass production facility at Austin for some reason .. duh.
3) It is about a month to complete all walls at Austin, and another month or two to install all the equipment. So, conservatively, we are about 3 months before tests can begin. Add 2 more month for pre-production checks. Now we are looking at the beginning of April for scaling up 4680s production at Austin. By that time 4680s production at Fremont should be at scale.
4) I think that the scaling up of the Model Y production will begin at Austin in late January, and most likely with 4680s from the beginning (using Fremont packs). Even though Musk said that the first production will be with older batteries I suspect he is bluffing because of (a) need to keep selling the current MY version, and (b) the structural battery pack requires a VERY different vehicle assembly process. I doubt they will start the line using the old process, then stop the line and restart with the new process. It's likely cheaper and more time effective to simply delay production by a month if needed.
So, my guess is February-May ramp up of the Model Y with 4680 for Austin.
Tesla hinted strongly at both the shareholders meeting and the earnings call they would be using 4680s produced in Fremont to supply the Model Y line in Texas until the Texas line was up and running.
(Apologies for screenshot, Slacking Alpha does some weird copy/ paste prevention stuff. I believe it was Musk replying here.
Also, at the earnings call they said early next year for cars with 4680 would start being delivered. That implies the Model Y to me. Seems like starting up the Model Y line on 2170s only to transition it a few weeks later would be a waste.
(Apologies for screenshot, Slacking Alpha does some weird copy/ paste prevention stuff. I believe it was Musk replying here.
Also, at the earnings call they said early next year for cars with 4680 would start being delivered. That implies the Model Y to me. Seems like starting up the Model Y line on 2170s only to transition it a few weeks later would be a waste.
Exactly. The are already prepping the factory at Austin for MY with front cast body. I'm pretty sure the rest of the lower MY body for 4680 would be pretty different from 2170. There is just no point to start with 2170 at Austin. I just wonder what is going to happen to MY at Fremont in the coming months. How is Tesla going to market MYs with different batteries and, likely, characteristics (range, weight, speed)?
This article says that Austin will be starting by the end of the year. Sounds reasonable to me.
Tesla Giga Austin & Giga Berlin Start Production In Q4, Start Deliveries In Q1 - CleanTechnica
Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! The production numbers of Tesla factories are funny things. Everybody thinks they know them better than Tesla and Elon Musk. The line in Berlin-Brandenburg will produce a car every 45 seconds. That is not...
cleantechnica.com
I suspect they will pick one of the configurations and just make the range as close as possible to the shipping Model Y LR. So for some time they will ship 2 Model Y configs. It’s entirely possible you won’t have any idea what start your car was made in. Maybe all of the new 7 seaters come from Texas since that’s lower volume.
I’m not sure legally what their options are, but worse case, they send out emails similar to the ones they sent out when they started shipping LFP packs on the Model 3 SR.
I won’t order one until I can get the new red color.
Maybe it’s silly, but that’s the only change that’s significant enough to really get me motivated to sell mine and upgrade. It’s also a convenient cutoff. If you order one now, you don’t know where it comes from. If you get one of the new colors, you are guaranteed it is the new hotness.
I had another thought. It’s possible they will sell the Texas ones with software locked capacity to keep it inline with the previous model year. Then later sell the increased performance as an paid upgrade.
If they're gonna put 4680's onto any Model Y's, it'll start with their Performance trim.
I'm in the Chicagoland area and delayed my Model Y Performance delivery to at least May of 2022 next year. With me being east of the Mississippi, I'm hoping I'll get the new Y's from Austin as Tesla's plan for Austin is anything east of the Mississippi comes from Austin, while anything west of the Mississippi comes from Fremont.
I'm in the Chicagoland area and delayed my Model Y Performance delivery to at least May of 2022 next year. With me being east of the Mississippi, I'm hoping I'll get the new Y's from Austin as Tesla's plan for Austin is anything east of the Mississippi comes from Austin, while anything west of the Mississippi comes from Fremont.
Hmm…
I think it depends on whether they are making LFP or Nickel based cells in Fremont. I don’t really know, but if they are making LFP based cells, they might go completely sideways on this. A Model Y AWD SR?
Unlikely and pure speculation. But we do know they are pushing hard on LFP.
nomorefuel
Member
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