Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room

[strider]

Appreciate the dialog. If you are getting $10k worth of value out of the current FSD features, then you are getting the value from your puchase. But I believe that most people are buying FSD because they think they will get actual FSD in the near future. In that case, I do not believe they will receive the value from their purchase. It will be MANY (I think at least 10) years before you can get into your car at home and not touch the steering wheel until you are parked at your destination. Further, contrary to what Elon says, Tesla will not be able to make existing cars have full FSD once it arrives. The actual FSD hardware package will be unable to be retrofitted to existing cars. In that case Tesla will call whatever the best they can deliver to be FSD and recognize the revenue.

 

[Elixir]

Tesla actually can’t recognize the revenue for FSD in full for its top line until it finishes building it out and releasing it wide spread. They will prioritize plaid orders similar to MS given the much higher margin.

Going by the number of Plaid Xs in the spreadsheet, although it is an extremely small sampling, it looks like about 9-10% are Plaids. I'd guess it shouldn't take too long to get through the prioritized Plaids versions.

 

[strider]

Tesla actually can’t recognize the revenue for FSD in full for its top line until it finishes building it out and releasing it wide spread. They will prioritize plaid orders similar to MS given the much higher margin.

They have been recognizing portions of the FSD money as they add features in order to pad their numbers. They did it most recently when they added the stoplight recognition capability. They can recognize as much as their auditors will let them get away with.

 

[bigguccisosa]

Long time lurker, thought I may as well create an account as I'm in it for the long haul.

Just lost my October delivery date (again), so some type of update is happening/ happened.
NY ordered on April 1, 2021
Long Range, White ext, Black int, 5 seat, 22"

 

[Tenacious54]

Sam here just lost my date as well.
Ordered Jan 2021: Delivery dates: April 2021-September2021-Blank-Jan 2021-Blank
I guess I will update the spreadsheet

 

[Richbot]

A 2020 Model Y with FSD almost drove us into a big rig, then an overpass support, on a test drive last fall. The culprit was, best I can tell, a road seam in a perfectly well-marked and lined divided highway on a nice sunny day. The same seam does not baffle the X near as badly, but it still occasionally confuses it.

It's not an old cars problem. It's a humans are hard to replace problem. And we don't trust machines to do things. (See e.g. the painfully long period of time between perfection and adoption of auto GCAS)

As you might imagine, my X does not have the $10,000 FSD option, nor am I an Elon's Promise Fanboy Club for Men $200/month member either

I think Tesla and the rest of the auto industry with the possible exception of GM with Supercruise is doing a real disservice to autonomous vehicles with the way they're going about this. I think it's setting adoption of the tech back by decades to facilitate hastening development and perfection of the tech by a few years. For every bogus story of somebody tricking the system and playing a stupid game and winning a stupid prize being blamed on Autopilot or FSD, there are 10,000 stories like mine of their Level 2 equipped car doing some dumb bullshit and eroding trust. I have about one WTF moment per week depending on whether the software version I'm on is an improvement or a step back...and until Autopilot is as good as I think it should be, I'll not be convinced FSD with fewer constraints and more variables is going to work safely enough for my family.

YMMV. And I freely admit Autopilot is the best Level 2 system I've ever used. That doesn't mean it's good enough to call Full Self Driving or give me any hope such a capability will come anytime soon. What a fiasco that marketing meeting on naming the upgrade package for the adaptive cruise suite has turned out to be...note to any time traveling Tesla execs who read this and then travel back to 2011, just call it Autopilot Plus next time. Also, door frames are worth the money.

*stares at X order website to see if time travel is real*

 

[Harvey Danger]

Any FSD rant is off topic here but here's my prepackaged rant anyway:

TLDR just don't call it FSD

- the tech is harder than elon says. Blue sky straight line driving is hard enough (see previous post), handling edge cases as well as humans is years away
- society at large will not accept it anyway. Even if it works "as well as" humans, it's not good enough: it will have to be far better than humans before people quit crying about various failures that are bound to come up. This is even more years away.

Tesla is working on an interesting problem, sure. They are trying to frame the conversation around it in a way that will induce customers to pay extra for early access to cutting edge technology. Fine.

But the real, solid, delivered benefits they offer now could be better described as Drivers Assistance features. (If we limit our discussion to only What Always Works, it's very comparable to other automakers I might add.)

Instead they keep saying Full Self Driving which has both common sense and technical meanings that Tesla is willfully ignoring. Calling current or even imminent capabilities "FSD" just causes heartburn for *everyone*.

 

[honeyfist301]

My January edd gone again too.

 

[snappy1]

My January EDD is gone as well again.

 

[cjthekid]

My January EDD is gone as well again.

There goes my December EDD. Yikes... i hope things are moving in the direction of production and not the direction of I'm never getting my car.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

Long time lurker, thought I may as well create an account as I'm in it for the long haul.

Just lost my October delivery date (again), so some type of update is happening/ happened.
NY ordered on April 1, 2021
Long Range, White ext, Black int, 5 seat, 22"

This just happened to me (AGAIN) today!
Red (white interior) LR 7 seat 20” FSD

 

[Vitaman]

Have you actually done this in a crowded lot? The car is SLOW. Your fellow drivers will have plenty of honks and hand gestures for you as your car takes 2 minutes to park itself.

This feature is the sole reason I have bought this 4 times on 4 different cars. It used to be 2-3 times faster than now.....and very useful. Now, not so much.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

A 2020 Model Y with FSD almost drove us into a big rig, then an overpass support, on a test drive last fall. The culprit was, best I can tell, a road seam in a perfectly well-marked and lined divided highway on a nice sunny day. The same seam does not baffle the X near as badly, but it still occasionally confuses it.

It's not an old cars problem. It's a humans are hard to replace problem. And we don't trust machines to do things. (See e.g. the painfully long period of time between perfection and adoption of auto GCAS)

As you might imagine, my X does not have the $10,000 FSD option, nor am I an Elon's Promise Fanboy Club for Men $200/month member either

I think Tesla and the rest of the auto industry with the possible exception of GM with Supercruise is doing a real disservice to autonomous vehicles with the way they're going about this. I think it's setting adoption of the tech back by decades to facilitate hastening development and perfection of the tech by a few years. For every bogus story of somebody tricking the system and playing a stupid game and winning a stupid prize being blamed on Autopilot or FSD, there are 10,000 stories like mine of their Level 2 equipped car doing some dumb bullshit and eroding trust. I have about one WTF moment per week depending on whether the software version I'm on is an improvement or a step back...and until Autopilot is as good as I think it should be, I'll not be convinced FSD with fewer constraints and more variables is going to work safely enough for my family.

YMMV. And I freely admit Autopilot is the best Level 2 system I've ever used. That doesn't mean it's good enough to call Full Self Driving or give me any hope such a capability will come anytime soon. What a fiasco that marketing meeting on naming the upgrade package for the adaptive cruise suite has turned out to be...note to any time traveling Tesla execs who read this and then travel back to 2011, just call it Autopilot Plus next time. Also, door frames are worth the money.

*stares at X order website to see if time travel is real*

IMO, and with all due respect, Super Cruise (being based off “high def maps”) is Stupid Cruise… it cannot ever be up to date even if you are following right behind the mapping vehicle because those updated maps aren’t going directly into your car.

 

[nyNYCny]

Long time lurker, thought I may as well create an account as I'm in it for the long haul.

Just lost my October delivery date (again), so some type of update is happening/ happened.
NY ordered on April 1, 2021
Long Range, White ext, Black int, 5 seat, 22"

Just lost my Oct. date, too.
NYC ordered April 2, 2021.
Long Range, Silver ext, White int, 5 seat, 22", FSD (and already on spreadsheet)

 

[Empty tank]

IMO, and with all due respect, Super Cruise (being based off “high def maps”) is Stupid Cruise… it cannot ever be up to date even if you are following right behind the mapping vehicle because those updated maps aren’t going directly into your car.

Dang I've had almost no interventions using my FSD. I'm in Memphis and will go to Nashville when the Bears or any other good team comes to town (not the cowgirls) and the my M3P is (almost) perfect. We had one intervention when the on ramp on I40 W went from one to three lanes I think I got whiplash the car tried it's best the figure what lane to get in . If my wife wasn't in there I would have let the car sort it out like I always do.

 

[Cutch26]

My delivery April 22 date is gone as well.. ordered a few months ago. Plaid white exterior 5 seat black interior

 

[ChrisOtt]

My Jan date is holding, but I expect it will disappear shortly

 

[Stro]

My January date is still good. Then again, I'm usually the last to get updated. Either way, this means nothing as usual.

 

[neo1738]

My Jan disappeared weeks ago never returned.

 

[anthonyj]

Why are people driving themselves nuts over an EDD? There’s obviously not enough orders for Tesla to start production for the X. The Y is too good and half the price.