Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room

[TrevTremaine]

The video does make sense. No new MX until 2025. Before I would have laughed at this video, but based on this year I 'kinda' believe it (at least on delivery date, not new body).

Well, I had to listen to it a second time. He's not actually talking about the yet-to-be-released-refresh, but rather a later version - the next, next version (barring a rather large clusterf**k which we seemingly are in the middle of). Heck if I know anymore

All I can say is I'm hopeful, in a guarded manner, that there's some sign of hope for Model X deliveries based on the last Fremont video. Sadly, I wish gabeincal was continuing to do this, but he's told me he's done with doing the regular flyovers.

 

[EL0NTRK]

On another related news, Samsung is building FSD HW4 chip for Tesla in their factory in Korea, starting in Q4 2021. All current Tesla uses HW3
Maybe this delay allows Tesla to use HW4 chip in the model X.

Samsung to make Tesla’s HW 4.0 self-driving auto chip - KED Global

SILICON VALLEY – Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s leading chipmaker, will manufacture Tesla Inc.’s next-generation hardware 4 (HW 4.0) ch

www.kedglobal.com

 

[RL0225]

Canadian Luxury Car Tax

Starting January 1st, cars sold for over $100,000 will be subject to a luxury tax, which in my case would add about $9,800 to the cost. (These are Canadian dollars, but still, it's around US$7,500). The Regulations haven't been issued yet, so it is not impossible they might exempt EV cars. Also, it doesn't apply to leases (on the theory that the manufacturer would already be subject to the tax when they deliver the car into Canada and would build the tax cost into the lease) so MAYBE I could switch to a lease if Tesla would still honour the existing no-luxury-tax price (doubtful, but I suppose possible). Also, I could maybe save about $2,000 by dropping FSD and just going on the monthly subscription.

It's all up in the air, but of course would be entirely solved if I could take delivery on or before December 31st! I hope Tesla takes all this into account.... particularly since I ordered back in January (and BTW my EDD had been September but has been blank for several weeks).

Could you remove the FSD and then just purchase it separately later, basically unbundling the two purchases? Not ideal if you were going to finance it but I'd probably go for that to avoid the tax. Avoiding that tax almost pays for FSD in itself too which is crazy. Hoping for the best for you.

 

[stanley7175]

Could you remove the FSD and then just purchase it separately later, basically unbundling the two purchases? Not ideal if you were going to finance it but I'd probably go for that to avoid the tax. Avoiding that tax almost pays for FSD in itself too which is crazy. Hoping for the best for you.

It doesn't matter as the base price for model X LR in canada starts at 124K so we cant avoid the tax.

 

[jkhanesq]

Any additional info on Tesla insurance license in NY? Looks like TX first and then NY.

 

[strider]

Canadian Luxury Car Tax

Starting January 1st, cars sold for over $100,000 will be subject to a luxury tax, which in my case would add about $9,800 to the cost. (These are Canadian dollars, but still, it's around US$7,500). The Regulations haven't been issued yet, so it is not impossible they might exempt EV cars. Also, it doesn't apply to leases (on the theory that the manufacturer would already be subject to the tax when they deliver the car into Canada and would build the tax cost into the lease) so MAYBE I could switch to a lease if Tesla would still honour the existing no-luxury-tax price (doubtful, but I suppose possible). Also, I could maybe save about $2,000 by dropping FSD and just going on the monthly subscription.

It's all up in the air, but of course would be entirely solved if I could take delivery on or before December 31st! I hope Tesla takes all this into account.... particularly since I ordered back in January (and BTW my EDD had been September but has been blank for several weeks).

Well, that sucks. But I have to ask, if their policies stink, why did ya'll just vote them all back in!?

Absolutely do not buy FSD. It is a complete waste of money. FSD will not be delivered for another 10 years. If it comes out sooner, you can do the subscription.

 

[Wooly1]

Well, that sucks. But I have to ask, if their policies stink, why did ya'll just vote them all back in!?

Absolutely do not buy FSD. It is a complete waste of money. FSD will not be delivered for another 10 years. If it comes out sooner, you can do the subscription.

This is the most true comment I’ve read on this forum. There is no way that FSD can be until all cars can communicate with each other. We are a good decade away from that. 10K down the drain

 

[suyoungman]

I agree about the FSD. Had my TM3 for almost 2 years now, and the basic auto pilot is pretty amazing and very convenient. Never had a need for FSD, even though I am a bit curious and considering trying it out for the monthly subscription fee of $199.
I've tried various other auto cruise control from other manufacturers; cadillac, lexus and mercedes, but the Tesla's autopilot outperforms all of them without a doubt. Billions of miles of data captured by Tesla appears to be helping with this. No ping-ponging all over the lane.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

Wow I gotta say I have a VERY different view on FSD than a number of posters here.
I’m quite sure Tesla is approaching FSD .999999 (safety AND function) at an exponential rate.

That is, they are getting closer ever more quickly over time, and their 9’s will continually extend farther and farther out — literally ad infinitum.

edit yes they may — scratch that — will update the hardware even the camera locations as they apply first principles over time. But FSD development (and AI advancement) will continue to improve exponentially ever more quickly.

 

[Unclepaul]

Knowing Elon, He will probably eliminate all the controversy and investigations by renaming it..."Not Full Self Driving"

Tesla is a very disruptive force to the exhising, very powerful ICE industry. They will use continous investigations to try to damage the company.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

What’s the saying, “first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win” — it’s gotten to the fight stage.

And the old crony system is full on pretending it cares (about the good things Elon/Tesla care about), while acting SOLELY to keep its coffers lined and its power in place.

winning is not guaranteed

 

[bayareaever]

Wow I gotta say I have a VERY different view on FSD than a number of posters here.
I’m quite sure Tesla is approaching FSD .999999 (safety AND function) at an exponential rate.

That is, they are getting closer ever more quickly over time, and their 9’s will continually extend farther and farther out — literally ad infinitum.

edit yes they may — scratch that — will update the hardware even the camera locations as they apply first principles over time. But FSD development (and AI advancement) will continue to improve exponentially ever more quickly.

Agreed , FSD is IMO an obvious add-on with the yoke steering wheel, future functionality, and resale value. The FSD subscription has no resale value and probably will increase in price or be unavailable at some point. Also, FSD is ‘only’ a ~10% increase on the MS/X at the current price (it’s obviously going up again soon with wide release).

 

[jboy210]

We ordered our X in Feb 2021. We originally had a delivery date of May and sold our X in April based on the delivery date. Tesla pushed it back until Oct. and now we don’t have any date. Tesla will not return any emails. Do you have any idea of what is happening?

Same thing with every car maker. My friend ordered a Ford van. Supposed to be here in July, Now sometime in 2022 is all they will say. And "Oh, we want $10K more than the original price because there are on "allocation" and we have more customers than cars that are coming in." Anything that uses a chip is impacted by their shortage. Sucks to be buying a car or almost anything these days.

 

[studioloft]

Don't look at FSD as "Full Self Drive with no user input". Look at it from the perspective of paying $10,000 to add a feature set:

• Lane changes on highway (overtake slower cars)
• On and Off ramps for highway
• App summoning features - drive/navigate through a parking lot
• Use the key fob to drive the car forwards and backwards (useful for tight spaces or when over a deep puddle)
• Autopark
• Stop sign and stop light aware stopping
• Future release - additional options at a later date (likely more within your span of ownership)
• Raised value - Remember when FSD was $5,000 in May of 2019? In under 3 years I added $5k of value to my 2017 X (market inflation set aside)

For me, considering the already overly-elaborate car we are buying.. adding this set of features for less than 9% of my car's configuration is an easy decision to make. I digress, don't think of FSD as full autonomy - otherwise you will be disappointed and disgruntled.

 

[Stro]

We usually get a notice before the price of FSD goes up. I could put the 10K in the market until the announcement comes and then pay for it right before the increase. This works better for me as the current features are not-so-great. I've had FSD since 2018 and it's ok. WAY too buggy still. It stops at signs of lights coming up or flashing yellow lights in front of firehouses. It's not great... but for highway use, it's great. Although it changes lanes WAY too frequently. We shall see how the beta works once it's released to the rest of us, but for now, I am not getting it again on the X until right before the next price increase.

 

[golferguy]

Don't look at FSD as "Full Self Drive with no user input". Look at it from the perspective of paying $10,000 to add a feature set:

• Lane changes on highway (overtake slower cars)
• On and Off ramps for highway
• App summoning features - drive/navigate through a parking lot
• Use the key fob to drive the car forwards and backwards (useful for tight spaces or when over a deep puddle)
• Autopark
• Stop sign and stop light aware stopping
• Future release - additional options at a later date (likely more within your span of ownership)
• Raised value - Remember when FSD was $5,000 in May of 2019? In under 3 years I added $5k of value to my 2017 X (market inflation set aside)

For me, considering the already overly-elaborate car we are buying.. adding this set of features for less than 9% of my car's configuration is an easy decision to make. I digress, don't think of FSD as full autonomy - otherwise you will be disappointed and disgruntled.

On/Off ramps is nearly worthless. It gets you on the off ramp and then aborts. Saves you one tenth of a mile of not driving?

App summoning is junk. Fails most of the time and useful range is only 150 feet. Heck I have had it start within the 150 feet and drive itself out of the 150 feet range and then stop, in the middle of an intersection IN THE RAIN.

Autopark, debatable how well it works.

EAP is a much better deal. Wish that was offered, for $5K or less.

 

[ICUdoc30]

I bought FSD for my plaid as part of my investment in TSLA. I plan on joining beta testers as soon as beta button comes out (hopefully tomorrow) and if/when FSD paints a path towards true autonomy I’m taking a 100,000 dollar loan against my home and dropping it on TSLA. Autonomy is the holy grail and whoever cracks it first is king and TSLA needs that revenue stream to justify future growth and market cap expansion.

 

[turok3000]

Wow I gotta say I have a VERY different view on FSD than a number of posters here.
I’m quite sure Tesla is approaching FSD .999999 (safety AND function) at an exponential rate.

That is, they are getting closer ever more quickly over time, and their 9’s will continually extend farther and farther out — literally ad infinitum.

edit yes they may — scratch that — will update the hardware even the camera locations as they apply first principles over time. But FSD development (and AI advancement) will continue to improve exponentially ever more quickly.

Regretfully, I suspect reality is likely the other way around - it's getting exponentially harder for FSD software to get closer to completion. Application of the 80/20 pareto principle - 20% effort to get 80% of the result, 80% effort to get the last 20% of the result. It's why Elon has been thinking release was close for years and yet it still hasn't happened.

 

[KidsEyeDr]

Regretfully, I suspect reality is likely the other way around - it's getting exponentially harder for FSD software to get closer to completion. Application of the 80/20 pareto principle - 20% effort to get 80% of the result, 80% effort to get the last 20% of the result. It's why Elon has been thinking release was close for years and yet it still hasn't happened.

Well I hear you but that’s why I was talking about Dojo hardware.
I didn’t say each additional 9 is going to be easier.

It’s the AI and continually upgrading AI mothership hardware (at Tesla HQ) that are going to be working (edit: not sure this part will be exponential) harder and getting results exponentially faster and faster

 

[KidsEyeDr]

I bought FSD for my plaid as part of my investment in TSLA. I plan on joining beta testers as soon as beta button comes out (hopefully tomorrow) and if/when FSD paints a path towards true autonomy I’m taking a 100,000 dollar loan against my home and dropping it on TSLA. Autonomy is the holy grail and whoever cracks it first is king and TSLA needs that revenue stream to justify future growth and market cap expansion.

That would be jumping on board a bit late