Refreshed 2021+ Model X and Model X Plaid waiting room

[stonelance]

Any opinions or knowledge of whether or not they can build 5 seat and 6 seat configurations at the same time? I fear that Q2 will be 5 seater only and those 6 seaters that were not delivered prior to now will have to wait until Q3. Wonder if that’s where the “July“ placeholder comes from?

I doubt they have enough orders to just produce the 5 seaters for an entire quarter. Assuming the overall ratios match our spread sheet, there are 3x the number of 6 seat orders vs 5. There are even less 7 seat orders than 5 orders. Also, the fact that Plaid is 6 seater I think means that they are likely to go back to that configuration frequently to make the high margin cars (even though the seats are slightly different, I'm guessing the assembly line configuration is basically the same for plaid vs LR 6 seat)

 

[Tz00]

I don’t think there’s wireless charging in the back. There are two usb C ports.

@209Driver If you fold down the driver's side rear seat only (the 60 side), could you measure the width of floor space (between the edge of the passenger rear seat and the C Pilar)?

 

[DelPhonic1]

Nope, in dense valley fog where we can only see 30' ahead, we're all still driving. If we didn't life would stop. Do we drive slow? Hell ya. Like 20 mph. But even then, having that extra 170 foot buffer of obstacle detection in front is huge. I've been driving dense valley fog for 20 years and it's white-knuckling it in the few trips I've driven in cars without radar distance following. TACC allows me to increase my following distance behind the cars so I don't have to be staring at their lights 30 feet in front of me.

You also conveniently sidestepped the fact that TACC doesn't currently work with vision only.

I don't care if my car has radar or not. If I can't see more than 30' ahead, I don't want the car, at least not yet, driving faster than the 20mph even if radar 'could' see objects more than 100' in the distance. Not in dense fog. Didn't they stop shipping model 3 and Y with radar last year? I think our new starships do still ship with TACC and no radar right?

 

[sorka]

I don't care if my car has radar or not. If I can't see more than 30' ahead, I don't want the car, at least not yet, driving faster than the 20mph even if radar 'could' see objects more than 100' in the distance. Not in dense fog. Didn't they stop shipping model 3 and Y with radar last year? I think our new starships do still ship with TACC and no radar right?

If phantom braking doesn't bother you during TACC, then good for you. It would drive me nuts. We'll see what the NHTSA has to say about it.

 

[Fleetwood75]

When did you order? Did you have to go through your SA or were you able to edit your build through the site?

Ordered July 2021. Text messaged our SA. I was too paranoid to try it on the website in case it screwed up and jacked our price by $31.5k

 

[groundy]

Elon has mentioned that the reason they are getting rid of Radar is the conflict caused when Radar visualizes one set of data, and Vision reports a different set of data. Lots of time and processing is necessary to sort out which data set is going to be used to direct FSD commands.

This lag consumes a tremendous amount of data for logic to determine which data stream will be best used to direct your car.

The decision has been made that Vision is the most advanced and has the highest potential to effect FSD. Logic would lead them to develop a visual system most like what humans are using (two eyes) to provide the data to the CPU (brain) to direct the best path for the car.

That is why the radar is being eliminated.
Doing so will reduse cost, free up space for other electronics, reduce power consumption, eliminate conflicting data points, save weight, make frontal crash repairs less expensive, and focus all engineering talent and asset on optimizing Vision based navigation.

Yes, this is the reason, but Elon lives in an echo chamber and has misled at minimum, perhaps unwittingly because he hired many yes-men during critical stages of what he believed was vertical integration of FSD, every step of the way after AP1.

Much of this could've been avoided if Tesla paid Mobileye licensing fees for a few years, which he deemed egregious at the time, and aqui-hired its engineers when stock starting skyrocketing. Instead, he started from scratch and Intel took Mobileye for what is a trivial price now. It took years for HW2/HW2.5 to come remotely close to Mobileye's AP1 because of that hubris, the same hubris in over-engineering the MX he now wishes could only be offered in 6-seats (he has 5 kids). People are experiencing the same phantom-braking I experienced on radar in 2018 while on vision in 2022.

He promised there was enough compute-power to use vision implicitly with AP2; then, he said AP2.5 wasn't an update and only for redundancy, while privately and simultaneously hiring a legendary chip architect from AMD to make HW3 to build out sub-processing via neural nets, which has gotten things back on track for the more realistic 10-year roadmap to some kind of FSD, but look at the supposed neural nets for windshield wipers. There will be HW4 and HW5. I understand the rationale, but there's more to the story than conflicting radar/vision logic. There isn't enough compute-power. The years with Scott were terrible, and not all his fault, before Karpathy came into the picture.

The only feature from EAP I use in the Bay Area is auto-lane change. That is why it was folded into FSD, and why they are now prioritizing those orders to solve for previous mistakes: massive R&D into something not ready for normal families. FSD has made great progress recently, but I'll continue to pass.

NHTSA may put the kibosh on his plan, as phantom-braking complaints increase. It's cool watching solo dudes navigate city streets, but there is no way I'm bringing my young kids along for that experience. NOA is still less safe than my driving, and I've never had a ticket driving a car.

I realize FSD is a controversial topic on this forum, particularly because uptake is higher here, but you need to be careful to take the man at his word at every step of the way. He is an unfocused CEO w/o a COO. He needs his Tim Cook.

 

[DelPhonic1]

Could it be that you didn’t see them because you were relying on the car instead of paying more vigilant attention than you would have been otherwise?

Quite possibly. But both were nighttime. Cats are sneaky and peeps are darty sometimes, especially the homeless. And I have realized that being vigilant and watching Beta, especially on longer drives, keeps me more awake and alert since I believe my eyes are more active of the things around me, as opposed to staring at the roads horizon. At some point Beta FSD will get so good that people will be relaxing and not as vigilant, on the regular. I do worry about Tesla catching lots of flack for this in the future when it becomes more widespread.

 

[DelPhonic1]

It's miles better looking than the cybertruck, but that's just a subjective opinion.

that bad ass-ness of cyber truck makes it a runaway winner compared to the Rivian. Like Rivian is standing still in the looks dept. Just like those Porsches and Lambos that race against Plaid.

 

[msjodilynn1]

Has anyone received a VIN for a 5 seater with no FSD? I ordered 5 seat 3/21/21 no FSD, EDD July.

 

[studioloft]

I doubt they have enough orders to just produce the 5 seaters for an entire quarter. Assuming the overall ratios match our spread sheet, there are 3x the number of 6 seat orders vs 5. There are even less 7 seat orders than 5 orders. Also, the fact that Plaid is 6 seater I think means that they are likely to go back to that configuration frequently to make the high margin cars (even though the seats are slightly different, I'm guessing the assembly line configuration is basically the same for plaid vs LR 6 seat)

I'm bored so lets do some math.

In the last 4 weeks we are currently averaging 15.25 cars delivered per week.
122 undelivered 5-seat MX outstanding on our spreadsheet... 122 / 15.25 = 8 weeks of consecutive production to deliver all outstanding 5 seats.

Similarly -
428 total undelivered MX cars. 428 / 15.25 = 28 weeks, or all outstanding orders delivered by the end of September, 2022.

(at current production rates)

Edit: Considering the 17.68% of orders that show outdated EDDs, you can roughly assume 20-25% of entries are users who entered their data once and will never return to update after delivery (20-25 includes future no-returners, an unfounded generous estimation). However, that means theoritically at current production rates, those who show July may actually get their car by July
<-- glass half full

 

[Rickywraith]

Has anyone received a VIN for a 5 seater with no FSD? I ordered 5 seat 3/21/21 no FSD, EDD July.

I just did today

 

[studioloft]

Has anyone received a VIN for a 5 seater with no FSD? I ordered 5 seat 3/21/21 no FSD, EDD July.

Yes.

Check out our order tracking spreadsheet. Based on your order date, you are close.

Tesla Model X Orders Tracking - TeslaMotorsClub

Detail Order Tracking Tesla Model X Orders Tracking,Total Orders,985,Links: Enter your information on a new line below.,Undelivered,114,11.6%,<a href="https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/refreshed-2021-model-x-and-model-x-plaid-waiting-room.219586/">X Refresh Waiting Room - Forum</a> View an...

docs.google.com

 

[groundy]

[March 11] I’m going to quote myself to remind others to keep the faith. I woke up to July for the third time, and it’s happening to others. 3 dates ranges and 3x July in the last month. I still expect a VIN before the end of the month.

The back-and-forth is a good thing for Tesla. It’s almost like we’re making a baby. So much friction and emotion. Waiting for the back and fourth date range.

[March 12] Excited for you JD! As with anything Tesla, temper expectations though. I’ve had 3 date ranges and two “July” in the last month. Because you’re in the Midwest, though, I agree with @Johnny Mac that it’s real and your car is on the way.

I also believe mine is real this time, but like @bmah, I’m picking up in Fremont, so don’t expect a vin (and car) until the last week of March. Bruce, I think that’s why your dates keep getting pushed. They gave you too tight of a range (and VIN) too early and are solely focused on shipping every car they can across the country before EOQ.

[March 11] In the next 10 days, VINs will rain here in CA.

Quoting myself again. For those on mobile, I ordered a LRX 6-seater 1/16/21 pre-refresh. I got my fourth date range of 3/22-4/12 after this week's text and reverting to July the prior 3x, but it seems to be holding, unlike many who have moved back. @jbrowdy, keep the faith, especially because you are in the in the LA area. You are making a baby with their EDD system. Water may break early.

I still stand by my prediction that vins in CA (SF/LA) will start to rain tomorrow. I though of a Ving Rhames Pulp Fiction joke, but my latest post on FSD may end me up in a basement with a ball gag.

 

[gglockner]

Quoting myself again. For those on mobile, I ordered a LRX 6-seater 1/16/21 pre-refresh. I got my fourth date range of 3/22-4/12 after this week's text and reverting to July the prior 3x, but it seems to be holding, unlike many who have moved back. @jbrowdy, keep the faith, especially because you are in the in the LA area. You are making a baby with their EDD system. Water may break early.

I still stand by my prediction that vins in CA (SF/LA) will start to rain tomorrow. I though of a Ving Rhames Pulp Fiction joke, but my latest post on FSD may end me up in a basement with a ball gag.

Yeah, we cool.

 

[Yosry]

I doubt they have enough orders to just produce the 5 seaters for an entire quarter. Assuming the overall ratios match our spread sheet, there are 3x the number of 6 seat orders vs 5. There are even less 7 seat orders than 5 orders. Also, the fact that Plaid is 6 seater I think means that they are likely to go back to that configuration frequently to make the high margin cars (even though the seats are slightly different, I'm guessing the assembly line configuration is basically the same for plaid vs LR 6 seat)

I agree, many of 7 and 5 seater, changes to 6 seats, when Tesla make it as a priority back in November, when they called every one to switch with promise of end of the year delivery.

 

[DelPhonic1]

Quoting myself again. For those on mobile, I ordered a LRX 6-seater 1/16/21 pre-refresh. I got my fourth date range of 3/22-4/12 after this week's text and reverting to July the prior 3x, but it seems to be holding, unlike many who have moved back. @jbrowdy, keep the faith, especially because you are in the in the LA area. You are making a baby with their EDD system. Water may break early.

I still stand by my prediction that vins in CA (SF/LA) will start to rain tomorrow. I though of a Ving Rhames Pulp Fiction joke, but my latest post on FSD may end me up in a basement with a ball gag.

"Get out of the way, Butch?" Or "There is no me and you" or "...bowl of rice and pop a cap in his ass..."?

At this rate, I don't hold out hope for a lot of Cali vins. Too many disappointments-- some of us have been here for a minute. When Vin comes, vin Rhames will come.

 

[John in LB]

Elon has mentioned that the reason they are getting rid of Radar is the conflict caused when Radar visualizes one set of data, and Vision reports a different set of data. Lots of time and processing is necessary to sort out which data set is going to be used to direct FSD commands.

This lag consumes a tremendous amount of data for logic to determine which data stream will be best used to direct your car.

The decision has been made that Vision is the most advanced and has the highest potential to effect FSD. Logic would lead them to develop a visual system most like what humans are using (two eyes) to provide the data to the CPU (brain) to direct the best path for the car.

That is why the radar is being eliminated.
Doing so will reduse cost, free up space for other electronics, reduce power consumption, eliminate conflicting data points, save weight, make frontal crash repairs less expensive, and focus all engineering talent and asset on optimizing Vision based navigation.

Humans process conflicting information all of the time...

Just based on your explanation: I would keep the Radar and spend more resources on resolving the conflicts - not avoiding them. Maybe this would help with all of the phantom braking.

Long term, I can see that perhaps Vision can get smart enough... but in the meantime, we have cars that have excess phantom breaking and cannot be set to drive over 80 MPH in Autopilot mode - Both of these characteristics are inferior to what we had just a year ago in existing Tesla vehicles, as well as what competitors are delivering today (in varying degrees of success...)

 

[JER85]

Meanwhile, saw this driving on the highway yesterday. I’ve heard some don’t like the way it looks. I think it looks kind of badass.

View attachment 783553

I think the sides and the back look great. It’s just the front that bothers me

 

[astonius]

Ordered July 2021. Text messaged our SA. I was too paranoid to try it on the website in case it screwed up and jacked our price by $31.5k

Thanks! My order is from May 2021, est July delivery. I don’t even have an option to edit the build. Hoping my SA can clarify tomorrow.

 

[John in LB]

Does Tesla really have a history of cancelling orders after price changes? I’ve searched the web and can’t find any evidence of this. I realize they forced Plaid orders to move to 6 seat, but I’m not aware of a rash of cancellations by Tesla due to subsequent price increases. Does anyone have any references to support this?

Maybe they are just becoming part of the CANCEL culture!?!