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e-FTW
New electron smell
All right folks, we are getting close. A number of us placed our bets last summer, following my post, and we will soon know how we did.
SpaceX now has two boosters with 8 missions under their belts. 1049 and 1051. See the data here: List of Falcon 9 first-stage boosters
- 1049 just flew its 8th mission last week, on March 4th
- 1051 is going for its 9th mission tomorrow March 14th
- 1051 has had much shorter turnaround times on average
- 1051 is the clear favorite to be the first to 10 at this time
e-FTW
New electron smell
Contest entries:
February 28 2021 Australian EST - @ICUDoc
April 20, 2021 - @Nikxice
April 28, 2021 - @Cosmacelf
May 4th, 2021 - @e-FTW (I misremembered my own bet)
June 2, 2021 - @adiggs
July 10, 2021 - @dkemme
August 18, 2021 - @Grendal
Winner gets to pick the charity we donate to. I think $50 local currency seems appropriate, but don’t want to force it on anyone.
February 28 2021 Australian EST - @ICUDoc
April 20, 2021 - @Nikxice
April 28, 2021 - @Cosmacelf
May 4th, 2021 - @e-FTW (I misremembered my own bet)
June 2, 2021 - @adiggs
July 10, 2021 - @dkemme
August 18, 2021 - @Grendal
Winner gets to pick the charity we donate to. I think $50 local currency seems appropriate, but don’t want to force it on anyone.
I will certainly lose for time but I did bet that it would be B1051 to reach 10 first. It's looking like it's a battle between the optimistic ICUDoc and Nikxice. I'm in for $50.
Although I missed out on the bet, I'm always eager to share a Grant with my friend's favorite charity.
Hopefully not. I expect they will push the booster to its limits and see how many it can do. An even dozen for B1051 before refurbishment...?It would be funny if on the 10th flight, they decided not to land, thus making that booster ineligible to win
e-FTW
New electron smell
I think Elon said they'll keep flying the boosters until it isn't worth it anymore. So we could have another contest, but it would last for years, guessing what the maximum number of times an F9 booster will be reflown.
e-FTW
New electron smell
Nikxice
Active Member
Ah yes, but we might need a ruling on whether the 10th booster flight has to succeed at both staging and the landing stick.It would be funny if on the 10th flight, they decided not to land, thus making that booster ineligible to win
In August 2020 @e-FTW originally suggested both criteria. On the same day @Cosmacelf responded....."Let's do date. That way someone wins. Closest to the date in absolute number of days wins. The date of the launch will be the date at liftoff time at local time of the launch site. But let's make the criteria be the 10th successful launch of a booster, not necessarily landing since they could decide to expend the booster for various reasons"
I'll nominate moderator @Grendal for a ruling. Trusted and neutral, his pick of B1051 looks solid, yet he's admittedly on the outside of the envelope for picking the winning booster date.
10 was just when it'd get a thorough going over and refurb. So it might get a good clean before its 11th flight.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
Maybe they'll add XPEL at the next refurbishment, so future hand washing will be easier and less likely to scratch the paint.
Matbe not
Doesn't wipe off, and the skin is likely too thin for abrasives.
The most it is going to get may be a sponge bath.
Right. And new paint costs in term of a weight penalty.
I just finished reading Liftoff. Fascinating reading about all the little things that could go wrong. Early on, during their propellant loading and unloading, they ran into an issue where the RP-1 fuel got too cold since it was in close contact with cryogenic liquids too long. If it was too cold, chamber pressures were lower than they should have been, and it initiated an auto abort.
BTW, you know how everyone wants to invest in SpaceX now? SpaceX got an emergency $20M funding round from the Founders Fund in late 2008. That's when they needed funding, but no one was looking to invest in a company who had just lost three Falcon 1 boosters and still hadn't managed to get a rocket into orbit.
e-FTW
New electron smell
I stand by my initial requirement that the booster must land to qualify for 10. A flight is not done for a booster until it is safely back on ground or drone ship.
I will provide some flexibility: if rough seas (or those birds) throw it over-board, after successful landing, a ULA drone blows it up when coming in to port or something unrelated to the performance of the booster leads to its loss post-landing, it still wins.
I agree that @Grendal shall make the ruling!
I will provide some flexibility: if rough seas (or those birds) throw it over-board, after successful landing, a ULA drone blows it up when coming in to port or something unrelated to the performance of the booster leads to its loss post-landing, it still wins.
I agree that @Grendal shall make the ruling!
e-FTW
New electron smell
An nice piece by Eric on this milestone: After Sunday’s launch, SpaceX is on the cusp of a historic reuse milestone — Ars Technica
I think given our bias towards a decimal number system, it's either 10 uses (can fail landing on 10th mission) or 10 re-uses (can fail landing on 11th mission).
EDIT: Actually, given the public goal of 10 launches and then it might want a more thorough refurb, at first we'd at least want 10 landings and back to port for inspection. We want SpaceX's word on condition and how much they need to do after that.
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