Roadster 3.0

[PokerBroker]

$15k for a battery with something around 70 kWh capacity? :scared: That is only about $210/kWh. And, this is a speciality item made in small quantity (for sure less than the 2500 unit production of Roadsters).

Pardon me for saying this, but are you guys smoking some really good weed? (sorry, I can't seem to restrain myself)

$500/kWh would be a fair price, in my opinion anyway. Good luck in geting a bargain, but I would not get my hopes up. I would just be glad that Tesla invested in making this upgrade (finally) available (when it comes).

GSP

You don't take into account the fact that a current battery replacement only costs $5,000 after they credit you for your current pack. I fully expect them to credit us for our existing packs as people upgrade.

Figure $5,000 for the first 53kwh and even $500/kWh for the remaining 17kwh ($8,500) would only come to $13,500.

I fully expect the package to come in between $15k-$20k.

 

[smac]

Since the P85D came out with longer range and better performance than the Roadster, this upgrade will need to be priced lower than the cost to sell and upgrade to that car. I mean, if I could sell the Roadster and add $30k to buy a P85D, why would I spend that much to upgrade a seven year old car? My expectation is $12k for the battery and $3k for the wheel hubs. I'll need to see the aero updates before I could price/values those.

I'm not sure you can compare the two directly. They are completely different cars.

Besides the Roadster will be much less likely to depreciate than a P85D, due to rarity. TBH I expect it won't be long before you can pick up the cheapest used P85D for less than the cheapest used Roadster. At that point the upgrade would have to involve Tesla giving you money

 

[GVTesla]

You don't take into account the fact that a current battery replacement only costs $5,000 after they credit you for your current pack. I fully expect them to credit us for our existing packs as people upgrade.

Figure $5,000 for the first 53kwh and even $500/kWh for the remaining 17kwh ($8,500) would only come to $13,500.

I was with GSP before on the battery price, but have to admit that PokerBroker's math above sounds quite solid.

Some of the questions (and speculation) remaining:

1. will 'available in August' mean a press presentation of the real deal with another delay into Q4 before general availability? Or will we be able to schedule an appointment immediately?
The service centers I'm close to, all have serious wait-lists for regular maintenance. So even if it becomes general available immediately, the RS'es in my neighbourhood would be faced with a delivery delay anyway. That said, I sure hope that August will also mean 'immediate general availability'.

2. now, with PokerBrokers battery replacement guesstimate, what will the price of the aero be like? The carbon parts always were quite pricy (I have the carbon package for example), so my guess would be that IF the aero comprises a quite substantial surface, we'd better be ready to pay some serious money unless TM is willing to compensate for the traded in 1.5/2.0/2.5 parts (if the aero turns out to be a replacement for an existing body part ofc).

 

[JRP3]

$15k for a battery with something around 70 kWh capacity? :scared: That is only about $210/kWh. And, this is a speciality item made in small quantity (for sure less than the 2500 unit production of Roadsters).

I seem to remember Elon saying something along the lines of the upgrade not being about making a profit, so I expect that at least the pack alone will be priced close to break even cost. The other mods may not be.

 

[qwk]

I seem to remember Elon saying something along the lines of the upgrade not being about making a profit, so I expect that at least the pack alone will be priced close to break even cost. The other mods may not be.

He said that about the service centers too....

 

[bonnie]

I seem to remember Elon saying something along the lines of the upgrade not being about making a profit, so I expect that at least the pack alone will be priced close to break even cost. The other mods may not be.

I tend to go with 'break even' on this one - easier for them to do with Roadsters than, say Model S, because the number who would go for the upgrade is so much smaller / predictable. And when you factor in the positive press over circling back to the first cars, easy to justify.

And even though some may (will?) argue with me, my personal experience is that there is a great deal of good will towards Roadster owners, especially those they refer to as 'first gen owners' (meaning, bought a Roadster new). It's recognized internally that a debt is owed. And then there is the thing that Elon has never been happy with the Roadster, so this upgrade may help with that.

 

[NigelM]

I tend to go with 'break even' on this one -

Makes sense from a marketing perspective. My car, like yours, is only 4.5 years old and I have a perfectly good battery pack right now.....I'm still getting in the 180's with a standard charge and although a bigger capacity pack is a 'nice-to-have' it with quickly look expensive to many of us if they price it too high.

 

[ecarfan]

I have been fantasizing for some time that the 3.0 upgrade will be offered at "break even" pricing and trying not to get my hopes too high, and now you guys are really boosting my fantasies [emoji3]
My Roadster battery only charges to 162 ideal miles on a standard charge. I would really like a new 70kWh battery.

 

[miimura]

In the Q&A during today's press call, it was stated that the Roadster 3.0 packs would be available for customer installation by the end of August. This seems to be on schedule with prior statements.

 

[Timothy]

Ricardo Reyes at TMC Connect and suggested that if the new Roadster battery is too pricey it could turn into a PR problem for Tesla because the anti-EV crowd will ridicule a $30K replacement battery cost as being "upgrades for rich people".

He specifically said Tesla wanted lots of Roadster owners to buy it and that the price wouldn't be prohibitive--whatever that means!

 

[ecarfan]

In the Q&A during today's press call, it was stated that the Roadster 3.0 packs would be available for customer installation by the end of August. This seems to be on schedule with prior statements.

Is that the only Roadster 3.0 news that came out of the press call today?

 

[hcsharp]

How are you guys calculating "break even?" Are you including development and validation costs? Those are huge. I'll be surprised and pleased if it's below 25 grand. And that may very well be break-even.

 

[JRP3]

If they are simply plugging in greater capacity cells into the existing Roadster pack structure, developmental costs should be quite minor. It should quite literally be plug and play. I'm going to be upgrading my 6x6 from lead acid AGM to lithium iron phosphate, a much greater change, and the only thing I need to change is the box that holds the battery. Tesla doesn't even need to do that. (I'm also changing to a faster charger, but I don't have to.)

 

[dsm363]

How are you guys calculating "break even?" Are you including development and validation costs? Those are huge. I'll be surprised and pleased if it's below 25 grand. And that may very well be break-even.

I'm hoping they simply write off development and validation costs as an advertising cost and make a small profit on the actual hardware. Wishful thinking maybe.

 

[supersnoop]

If they are simply plugging in greater capacity cells into the existing Roadster pack structure, developmental costs should be quite minor. It should quite literally be plug and play.

They have to account for both size, weight, and distribution. Electrically, it should just be plug-and-play, but the size and shape of the battery could change.

 

[simonog]

I'm hoping they simply write off development and validation costs as an advertising cost and make a small profit on the actual hardware. Wishful thinking maybe.

It seems to me that the technology Tesla chooses to use will affect their cost. If they use the existing 18650 cell type from the Model S they get economies of scale, but render the existing packs of value only as future replacements for owners who do not upgrade. The other choice is to use existing Roadster technology which is dated.

How it is then priced to us, as many on this thread say in different ways, is entirely a matter of policy.

We have one advantage! With the a Roadster populate being small, the potential profit or loss from any upgrade is potentially de minimis to the company.

 

[Rik]

Is the group here thinking that the 3.0 battery will provide us Supercharger access?

 

[ecarfan]

Is the group here thinking that the 3.0 battery will provide us Supercharger access?

Absolutely not. That has been discussed many times. It will not happen for the Roadster.

 

[bonnie]

Is the group here thinking that the 3.0 battery will provide us Supercharger access?

No. Pretty sure it will not. Roadster Supercharging?

 

[ecarfan]

It seems to me that the technology Tesla chooses to use will affect their cost. If they use the existing 18650 cell type from the Model S...

I believe Elon has stated in the past that the Roadster 3.0 battery will not use the same cells as the Model S battery.