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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Putin is the ideal “strong man” that a lot of authoritarian leaders in other countries aspire to be. They look pro-Russian because they genuinely like Putin, like his ultra-right wing ideology and want to emulate him.

Modi, Bolsonaro, an important US politician whose name can’t be mentioned all fall in this group. They are not “Russian assets” like some claim - more like Putin fans. Alt-right propaganda in all these countries frequently use Putin’s image as approving of local leaders.

You can’t deal with Putin (esp his propoganda) without dealing with alt-right in all these countries.
90% agree with your analysis, other than the alt-right classification. Lets call a spade a spade; what all of the ones listed are, it is exactly what Hitler or Mussolini were. National-socialists. Populists with a very strong nationalism bias. It's not pure right or left, just a really horrific combination. For clarification, I see Nikolai I, Pinochet or Franco (nationalist dictators that don't care about social conditions of the larger population) as your typical far-right dictators, while Stalin and Mao (communist dictators that would suppress everyone no matter their ethnicity) hold the other extreme. Modi, Bolsanaro and the other have nationalism superimposed on the populism, muddying the spectrum. Putin fits just fine in this list. The reason that they admire each other...
 
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@wdolson the US is brokering the transfer of the Solvenian S300 air defense systems to Ukraine in exchange for Patriots based air defense. That's something I alluded to many posts ago. Far better to move s300 to Ukraine than to bring in US or British or French systems. Replacing the s300, especially in light of the "humanitarian air base" russia is trying to setup in Serbia is the critical hold up right now.
 
Former CIA Director General David Petraeus joins Andrea Mitchell to discuss the significance of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg’s announcement that the alliance will double the number of battle groups on its eastern flank. “It’s very important, because this really reflects NATO's big response to the new dynamic, which is a much more threatening Russia,” says Petraeus. “And moving essentially the front of NATO, the main focus of NATO, all the way out to the Baltic States into the eastern European limits of NATO's borders.”

--> He also covers the large picture in Ukraine. But not sure if it contained anything new with regards to everything that has already been posted in this thread...

 
All you people commenting on Russia-Ukraine conflict get a 'DISAGREE'.

This is the wrong forum. Take it elsewhere. Russia/Ukraine conflict | TMC

Respectfully disagree. At least for my own post.
Maybe I should have started with a different context, but the video gives insight how things work in Russia.
Quite a few times in the past a discussion was held here about Tesla starting in Russia.
A lot of people don’t understand why there is acceptance of corruption there, the historical background of all of it, etc.
The video gives a lot of info I haven’t seen elsewhere. It is not about the war. See and judge afterwards.
 
Former CIA Director General David Petraeus joins Andrea Mitchell to discuss the significance of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg’s announcement that the alliance will double the number of battle groups on its eastern flank. “It’s very important, because this really reflects NATO's big response to the new dynamic, which is a much more threatening Russia,” says Petraeus. “And moving essentially the front of NATO, the main focus of NATO, all the way out to the Baltic States into the eastern European limits of NATO's borders.”

--> He also covers the large picture in Ukraine. But not sure if it contained anything new with regards to everything that has already been posted in this thread...

Now here is a guy that is not an idiot. Privately he told presidents they were though. Someone to listen to vs the Qidiots posting on youtube.
 
On November 23 2021, the warning of a Ukrainian Brigadier General was posted here in our thread, saying that Ukraine would be attacked by Russia in January or February. Little did we know how right this intelligence officer was.
Very often we do not understand the way Russians act and react.
This video from a intelligence colonel of Finland, although quite lengthy, gives great insight how the government machinery in Russia works.
Not only insightful for the war, but also why likely Tesla hasn't (and apart from the war shouldn't) put expansion in Russia high on its list of things-to-do.
Note: Unless you are Finnish, switch Subtitles in Settings to 'English'


OMG, this is one hour long. Anyone care to summarize?
 
Former CIA Director General David Petraeus joins Andrea Mitchell to discuss the significance of NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg’s announcement that the alliance will double the number of battle groups on its eastern flank. “It’s very important, because this really reflects NATO's big response to the new dynamic, which is a much more threatening Russia,” says Petraeus. “And moving essentially the front of NATO, the main focus of NATO, all the way out to the Baltic States into the eastern European limits of NATO's borders.”

--> He also covers the large picture in Ukraine. But not sure if it contained anything new with regards to everything that has already been posted in this thread...

It was slightly different and you have to listen to him carefully, he was in DC a long time. Instead of describing the goal of leaving Putin a bridge to retreat he described response to the threat of weapons of mass destruction as having to be absolutely clear to Putin that he still had something to lose. That was a nuanced message. To make sure Putin understood he still had something to lose. Does that mean chemical weapons would mean a military response by NATO? Or Providing Ukraine with more advanced systems and training? Accepting Ukraine into NATO? Or ? Anyway, Petraeus is one of the few people that have stood inside the very top of the CIA and the DoD and who conveyed to insiders that he had an understanding of both.
 
True enough - it wouldn't play the same (sanctioning China to isolate it).

But it also doesn't need to. If companies shift some of their sourcing to other countries and/or started working towards redundancy in their supply chain with more local companies, that'll put headwinds into China's economy. Big enough headwinds creates a recession, and pretty big motivation on China's part to not pursue policies that cause the rest of the world to go find alternatives to doing business with China.

Especially if the drive to find alternatives turns into a multi-year or multi-decade decision / effort. I think this is the real problem Russia faces, even if they decided today to stop the invasion and withdraw, they have still lost a lot of trust that needed decades to build.
China will have headwinds anyway because they can't sell much more into the United States and Europe won't allow a big trade deficit long-term. The world is big though, so they might be able to find other markets.
 
But this is the important thing all these guys miss or won’t talk about.

Putin is the ideal “strong man” that a lot of authoritarian leaders in other countries aspire to be. They look pro-Russian because they genuinely like Putin, like his ultra-right wing ideology and want to emulate him.

Modi, Bolsonaro, an important US politician whose name can’t be mentioned all fall in this group. They are not “Russian assets” like some claim - more like Putin fans. Alt-right propaganda in all these countries frequently use Putin’s image as approving of local leaders.

You can’t deal with Putin (esp his propoganda) without dealing with alt-right in all these countries.

Every society has a spectrum of political interest. There are strong adherents to any particular ideology and most of the rest are people who just lean a particular way and go with the flow to varying degrees.

Putin has been working hard for most of the last decade to get those people going with the flow more radicalized. Make people believe that the "other guys" are doing heinous things to gin them up. He was aided by a 30 year effort in the US on the right to do just this. Putin took it up a notch in the US and exported it to other democracies.

Whatever the political fault lines are in a society, his internet trolls have worked overtime to make them grow. His efforts have been equal opportunity, aiming at all ends of the political spectrum, but he has had a lot more success among right wing politics in most countries. There are left wing political followers who don't think about things (I know some), but modern left wing politics tends to have a higher percentage of people who think for themselves and manipulation doesn't work as well on them.

This has been an American trend, but I think it has also taken hold in some other country's politics: the right has been purging its intellectuals for 30 years. In the US both ends of the political spectrum had an intellectual class who discussed various ideas from their perspective. The right has become anti-intellectual and has lost its thinkers. There still are conservative intellectuals in the US, but they are generally outside the Republican party now. Some got shoved out for wanting to ask questions.

When thinking is discouraged, it becomes ripe ground for manipulation by someone who wants to drive the herd to their ends. Right wing media has been doing this for internal political reasons for a while, but Putin high jacked this process. He was at it before 2016, but it was 2016 when it became obvious. He's been infecting American politics and other country's (UK, France, Hungary, etc.) politics with his memes ever since.

The affiliation the politicians have for Putin is there. A number do praise him because they want to be him. A number do it because that's how they get elected in an environment flooded with Putin's propaganda.

If Putin does fall and the troll farms stop operating, or we figure out how to take them down I think we will see politics in a lot of democracies shift to a more rational footing as all the trolls quit doing their magic on the politically disinterested.

@wdolson the US is brokering the transfer of the Solvenian S300 air defense systems to Ukraine in exchange for Patriots based air defense. That's something I alluded to many posts ago. Far better to move s300 to Ukraine than to bring in US or British or French systems. Replacing the s300, especially in light of the "humanitarian air base" russia is trying to setup in Serbia is the critical hold up right now.

I was talking about the handful of Russian made air defense systems the US has for testing. The US and NATO will not be transferring any complex military hardware to the Ukrainians they don't already know how to use. The Ukrainians don't have the time to learn the new systems.

The US has very little of this hardware to transfer because all it has is stuff taken for evaluation.

After the war is over I expect Ukraine is going to convert to western hardware as quickly as they can get their people trained on the new equipment.

For a bit of levity

There is a whole thing the Ukrainians are going with soldiers and cats on Twitter.
 
Now here is a guy that is not an idiot. Privately he told presidents they were though. Someone to listen to vs the Qidiots posting on youtube.
Unfortunately some people will dismiss them because they were talking on "MSM" (Mainstream media), as if that is necessarily a bad thing. I've seen analysis on MSM from people like former General Wesley Clark, General Barry McCaffrey, Admiral William McRaven, Major General James Marks, Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, etc., and they seem to know what they are talking about, while making things easy for a general audience to understand.
 
Am not sure if this has been posted in the forum, but if you want to donate to the Ukranian army, the links are:

It is legit, I just gave a substantial amount (for me, at least - am not a billionare yet...).

It is important to support them with more than thoughts and prayers - a defeated Ukraine will most likely open the doors to a series of wars in Europe - Moldova - Baltics - Poland - .... If Russia wins, Putin could then do a mass mobilisation, put the country on a war footing, and "liberate" Europe from the evil NATO forces....
 
Unfortunately some people will dismiss them because they were talking on "MSM" (Mainstream media), as if that is necessarily a bad thing. I've seen analysis on MSM from people like former General Wesley Clark, General Barry McCaffrey, Admiral William McRaven, Major General James Marks, Brigadier General Mark Kimmitt, etc., and they seem to know what they are talking about, while making things easy for a general audience to understand.

We need some of those guys hosting shows of their own on MSM. The higher the quality of the information the better.
 
We need some of those guys hosting shows of their own on MSM. The higher the quality of the information the better.

Here's a video from a Finnish intelligence officer that was posted in the investment thread. I've been listening, very good summary of the Russian psychology and explains why Putin reacted as he did, as a product of centuries of Russian experiences.
 
Unfortunately some people will dismiss them because they were talking on "MSM" (Mainstream media), as if that is necessarily a bad thing.
That is entirely MSM's fault for making MSM news a profit centre supported by advertisers (and incidentally pushing their news goals) rather than a public service the way it was in the 1950s.
 
It's late March right now. I would bet gas demand is dropping steadily day by day.

Got 6-8 months to get things in place to reduce demand for next winter.
Europe uses the next 6-8 months to refill storage, because winter consumption exceeds supply even with Russian imports. There is no practical way to meaningfully reduce demand this year. Europe is already quite efficient. Maybe they can ramp coal back up a little. This EIA page gives an overview of EU natgas sources. Russia provides ~13 bcf/day. US LNG export capacity is close to 10 bcf/day, but a pretty good chunk of our exports already go to Europe so I doubt we could replace more than a few bcf/day of that Russian supply.

We could replace Europe's Russian oil if we were willing to suffer the inconvenience of wartime rationing. But we'd rather talk endlessly than actually do something.

The talk of paying in Rubles is nonsense. You often hear the same garbage about oil trading in dollars offering the US some huge advantage. People say we went to war with Iraq because they announced they were going to sell oil in Dinars or some other currency. It's all complete gibberish. The currency used for purchase is almost completely irrelevant. Whether Rubles or Dollars Russia will turn around and use whatever it earns to buy stuff they import, e.g. consumer electronics.
 
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The currency used for purchase is almost completely irrelevant
Requiring customers to pay in Rubles means someone needs to purchase them which supports the currency.

When customers pay in USD the Russians get valuable foreign currency, but that does not directly support the Ruble.

Russia can then make direct purchases with foreign currency and not need to sell Rubles.

So perhaps "almost completely", but not "completely".

Russian Federation had a total export of 426,720,332.66 in thousands of US$ and total imports of 247,161,342.90 in thousands of US$ leading to a positive trade balance of 179,558,989.76 in thousands of US$ The Effectively Applied Tariff Weighted Average (customs duty) for Russian Federation is 5.34% and the Most Favored Nation (MFN) Weighted Average tariff is 7.40%.T

We know most of their exports are Fossil Fuels and imports are in the same ballpark, it doesn't take much of a dip in exports to mean they need fairly drastic cuts to the amount of stuff they import. If they are importing more than they are exporting, the Ruble is under pressure.

It is also about how is setting the agenda.

Coming into Spring Europe should need less Russian gas, but gas used for industrial purposes will not drop significantly.
Some EU factories might need to be temporarily shutdown.

I don't expect the war to be going next winter, I hope it isn't, as that would be a very bad outcome.
My concern is that the Russians appear to be doubling down, ego doesn't allow them to cut their losses.