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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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--> Paywalled. But the gist of the text is visable:

"France increases nuclear submarine presence in response to Russian threats​

/.../ Wednesday March 23 2022, 5.00pm GMT /.../

Three French nuclear missile submarines have been deployed at sea simultaneously for the first time in three decades as a response to Russian nuclear sabre-rattling. [My underline.]

Two of France’s four Triomphant-class ballistic missile submarines have left their base at Ile Longue, south of Brest, bolstering the single vessel that is normally on permanent patrol under the Atlantic, according to the Telegramme, the newspaper of the Breton port. /..."
 
According to Orwell's tripartite geopolitical structure described in the book 1984, the solution to the present conflict is to have Russia join both the EU and NATO. It's East Asia that's supposed to be the future enemy, isn't it?😉

Note: I can't take credit or blame for the above concept as I read it elsewhere on the Internet.
Almost; US & UK need to leave NATO first, they are part of Oceania.
 

Here's a video from a Finnish intelligence officer that was posted in the investment thread. I've been listening, very good summary of the Russian psychology and explains why Putin reacted as he did, as a product of centuries of Russian experiences.
Interesting video. I downloaded the cc and skimmed it. Not sure if link works, but will try. Found this part to be interesting:

Russian truth. This is interesting. After all, language tells how people think, how they perceive the world and how society thinks. The United States has two words for positive rights: "Liberty" and "freedom" and so on. Russia has two words for the truth and three words for the lie. It is certainly not a coincidence. The Russians have the word pravda, which is the truth but not the absolute truth. Rather, Pravda is the truth to get rid of awkward wicked situations. It’s a bit like a tactical truth. Istina is the opposite of a lie. Istina is true, as true as it can be. But pravda there is more, sometimes it can be true, sometimes it can be not so true. Three words to a lie. Vranjo is a noble lie. But it is a noble lie in a strategic level. It is also kind of a way to get rid of nasty situations. The Russians know it, we don't know it. We think that there is only truth and lie in the world It's just black and white, or plus and minus. We think so because we usually have it that way. The lie in Russia was born under the Mongol rule During Mongol rule: Violence and lying were a way to survive. This tradition has been since then in that system. Russia has word a krugovaja poruka, or gang guarantee. By the way, the Finnish word "porukka" (gang) comes from here. It means that when we have some set of people in a gang with a common goal. Be it the Kremlin leadership or the Russian armed forces or whatever. We have a common goal and when I will go out of the circle of the gang and will lie elsewhere. Those part of my gang shall hear that I lie. They don't judge me as a liar because they understand that I am using tactical truth (vranjo) to achieve the greater goals of our gang. The use of tactical truth, or a lie is accepted if it is made for the gang. Just like you can steal when you don’t steal too much or from the wrong guy. You also get to lie if you lie for the better good of the gang. Us in the West, the truth is black and white. A good book from Masha Gessen that I took with me here. "The Future is History" Worth reading to anyone interested in this theme. Masha Gessen talks about doublethink (as did Orwell in 1984). That is, at the kitchen table, different things are said than outside the doors. Here is a little the bit of the same situation. Everyone understands that Robert was talking about a different topic at the kitchen table than in public. Everyone understands why it happened. This is based on the group launching their own story, for example "We had nothing to do with the poisoning of Skripal." Or that "We have nothing to do with the shooting down of the Malaysian plane". This is based on the fact that we in the West, under the rule of law when we make an argument, we need to be able to 100 %, unequivocally prove the claim to be true. But when Russia makes an argument, there are always small gaps left here and there that we westerners start to think about, "Is that so?" The notion of lie and truth works differently in Russia. Examples: The Terijoki government (Russian attempt to make a puppet government to Finland in 1939) had a story that the working population of Finland was tired of the Mannerheim-Tanner (Marshal of the Finnish Defence Forces in the 1939) fascist junta and formed a government to liberate the Finnish people. Then when the Russians attacked they found out it wasn't quite the case as what the propaganda had said. Or this. The president said "We have nothing to do With interferencing the 2016 U.S. presidential election". He says just like that. The Russians who see and hear this know that "We were there, but we didn't get caught." Then the West thinks, "Well, who were they, if not Russians?" Because we don't realize the use of Russian tactical truth. When they went to Crimea, Putin said, "They are not Russian forces." If our commander-in-chief of the Finnish Defence Forces would deny the Finnish soldier that they are not Finnish soldiers, that would lead to unfortunate situations. The soldier would go on a strike or it would get depressed or something. But the Russians were proud that our president would be able to use tactical truth Putin said "They are not Russian forces." We started thinking here in the west, "Well, who are they then? Where did they come from?" Then they had two or three days to take over Crimea completely, then Putin remembered, "Oh, they were Russian troops after all". Or this shooting down of a Malaysian plane. It has been proven unequivocally that it was from the Russian 53rd Air Defense Brigade the missile that fired that plane down. The wildest stories that were moving in Russia were that when the situation was at its hottest, these people were already dead there on the plane. This story was spread. Those people who died in the accident did not die in the attack but they were already dead before the missile struck the plane. But no one questioned it because the Russians knew it was a tactical truth. They did not question how the captain of the plane was made to fly a plane full of dead people. No one questioned it because they knew it was a tactical truth. Or, in the Donbass region, brave miners went to fight the fascist junta in Kiev and then protest during which some civilian protesters forgot to take away their IDs of the Russian Armed Forces when participating to the protests. Or "We have nothing to do with the hacking of the DNC, the US Democratic Party." In fact, they got caught both the GRU, the Russian military intelligence service, and the FSB, the civilian intelligence, both caught on servers. Or that “We don’t have nothing to do with the poisoning of Skripal.” Except that there was a Russian intelligence colonel who had received a medal from Putin There was also a doctor present there who was tasked with making sure Chepiga, who was performing the poisoning operation on Skripal, would not be exposed to the poison himself. The funniest thing here is that this Chepiga's grandmother, who lives near Arkhangelsk, had in her foolishness gone to show a picture where Chepiga gets From the hand of Putin the Soviet medal. You never guess what happened to the Grandma after that? Grandma disappeared. Or that “we’re not involved in Eastern Ukraine". Here is the tomb of a 21-year-old paratrooper. In Pskov. Fallen in the Donbass. We need to understand that the use of Russian truth and falsehood is completely different from our thinking. If they say something, they won’t necessarily mean it, but the tactical truth is meant as an instrument to slip through a slightly open doorway to get out of a nasty situation."
 
Another WindOfChange letter translated:
Igor Sushko .com - Racing and Beyond: Putin's plan to attack Poland & Russian concentration camps for Kherson population | Professional Race Car Driver

Someone posted yesterday why they thought nukes would not be used in Ukraine. This letter has another reason which is probably more in line with Putin's thinking

"The use of tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine would mean Russia's defeat in the eyes of both adversaries and neutral countries: such a powerful argument for a local conflict would demonstrate military weakness, which not even military success could override. Therefore, to possibly intimidate the West, such strikes could, very much hypothetically, be carried out against Poland; (Meaning as an empty threat only)"

The letter talks about a Russian operation to attack Poland which anyone with any sense thinks is a terrible idea. Also they are planning genocide in Kherson.

A few letters back Shushko said that there were not going to be any letters for a while because it was getting risky for WindOfChange to send them, but more letters have come since. I think it's possible that the first letters were real and the latter ones are fiction. Anyway, it's there to read.
 
This is concerning, but I imagine Russia is awash with wild rumours and speculation.

The source may be genuine, but I wonder how good their information is. In this case I'm hoping it is wide of the mark, or the Russian leadership/local commander reconsiders.

WindOfChange is supposedly an FSB analyst and sees all the intelligence and planning information. If this is real, it's a window into the thinking of Putin and the Kremlin.

A ship just blew up in Berdyansk. It looks like a landing ship they were using to move supply:

Update: It's the Alligator class Orsk. Apparently it was putting ashore a BTG. It looks like ammunition is cooking off in there. The ship is probably a write off as is most if not all the equipment for a BTG. If the personnel for the unit were onboard a number may have been killed.

It could be an accident or the Ukrainians may have done something. If it was the Ukrainians I'm sure we'll hear about it soon.

Ammunition handling on ships can turn into a disaster quickly. In WW II the US had two bad ammunition loading accidents, one in California and the other in Pearl Harbor both in 1944. In 1943 the Japanese battleship Mutsu had a magazine explosion and sank in port. The magazine had some ammunition that had a reputation for being unstable and that might have been the cause of the loss, but nobody is sure.
 
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According to Orwell's tripartite geopolitical structure described in the book 1984, the solution to the present conflict is to have Russia join both the EU and NATO. It's East Asia that's supposed to be the future enemy, isn't it?😉

Note: I can't take credit or blame for the above concept as I read it elsewhere on the Internet.
The world Orwell envisioned roughly corresponds to the US and Soviet spheres of influence in 1949, with a small area carved out for China because by this time, the Sino-Soviet split had already happened.

 
It never succeeded but created more death than any other philosophical movement in the whole history of humanity by likely at least one order of magnitude...


Abhorrent.
Factually this statement is not correct. It ignores all the theistic philosophies. As a proportion of population affected there have been several others. The Crusades, Sassanid Empire, numerous Islamic ones including the Ottoman, in the 20th century National Socialists. The list goes on very repulsively and long. Almost every territorial conquest has had a philosophical core, deeply warped, that ‘justified ‘ mass murder with bizarre philosophical basis. That includes the Roman Empire and the Holy Roman Empire.

Then there are the regional ones worldwide …

Almost all… even the USA forcible expansion by displacing ‘savages’.

Marxism certainly has a major place in the annals of infamy. Many other human inventions have matched or exceeded it.

In the subject we are addressing there is a large part of the Rus which holds principles similar to those that have been the basis for nearly every past horrible episode in human history.

At the core a messianic perception of destiny creates a philosophy to justify itself.
Putin is just another of that long list.

This concludes my pessimistic version of human history,

For optimism I think of Elon Musk.
 
Factually this statement is not correct. It ignores all the theistic philosophies. As a proportion of population affected there have been several others. The Crusades, Sassanid Empire, numerous Islamic ones including the Ottoman, in the 20th century National Socialists. The list goes on very repulsively and long. Almost every territorial conquest has had a philosophical core, deeply warped, that ‘justified ‘ mass murder with bizarre philosophical basis. That includes the Roman Empire and the Holy Roman Empire.

Then there are the regional ones worldwide …

Almost all… even the USA forcible expansion by displacing ‘savages’.

Marxism certainly has a major place in the annals of infamy. Many other human inventions have matched or exceeded it.

In the subject we are addressing there is a large part of the Rus which holds principles similar to those that have been the basis for nearly every past horrible episode in human history.

At the core a messianic perception of destiny creates a philosophy to justify itself.
Putin is just another of that long list.

This concludes my pessimistic version of human history,

For optimism I think of Elon Musk.

In sheer numbers of dead in a short period of time I think the list goes"
1 - Mao
2 - Stalin
3 - Hitler

They also did their thing in the 20th century when the world population was relatively large. Other mass murders in history happened when the world population was smaller, and usually the killing took a while.

The Americas were fairly sparsely populated even by European standards when the Europeans got here. I heard a few weeks ago a new scholarly estimate of the population of North America was only something like 40 million when the British showed up. It probably would be higher if you count modern day Mexico. That probably had the highest concentration of people.

My partner is Aztec and Spanish (most Mexicans today are a mix of the natives of Mexico and the Spanish of course). She talks about how fast the Aztecs ceased to be any kind of identifiable people. A lot died from disease in the early years and the rest (women) were married off to the Spanish settlers who mostly came without women.

Further north the British arrived as family groups so mixing with the locals was discouraged and they just wiped them out or pushed them westward instead. It's not as dramatic a mass murder as the dictators above because the numbers were smaller (though as a percentage of world population at the time it was higher) and it was spread out over centuries.

I do find it notable that there are more Indians of South Asian descent (around 4 million) in the US now than Native Americans (less than 3 million).

Also a lot of the people who vanished from the scene in a lot of the past mass murders over time mixed with another population and just lost their identity. A lot of Americans are doing DNA testing now and find they have Native American genetics. The Aztecs and other natives of Mexico live on in the genes of most Mexicans today. Same thing for most of the conquered lands in the New World.

The mass murder the Romans inflicted on Carthage is probably one of the worst genocides in the ancient world. Most conquering armies just wanted the defeated to settle down and be good subjects to the new rulers.

The 20th century's mass murders happened in a short period of time and most can be traced back to one dictator. That and being more recent highlight them in our memories.
 
In sheer numbers of dead in a short period of time I think the list goes"
1 - Mao
2 - Stalin
3 - Hitler

They also did their thing in the 20th century when the world population was relatively large. Other mass murders in history happened when the world population was smaller, and usually the killing took a while.

The Americas were fairly sparsely populated even by European standards when the Europeans got here. I heard a few weeks ago a new scholarly estimate of the population of North America was only something like 40 million when the British showed up. It probably would be higher if you count modern day Mexico. That probably had the highest concentration of people.

My partner is Aztec and Spanish (most Mexicans today are a mix of the natives of Mexico and the Spanish of course). She talks about how fast the Aztecs ceased to be any kind of identifiable people. A lot died from disease in the early years and the rest (women) were married off to the Spanish settlers who mostly came without women.

Further north the British arrived as family groups so mixing with the locals was discouraged and they just wiped them out or pushed them westward instead. It's not as dramatic a mass murder as the dictators above because the numbers were smaller (though as a percentage of world population at the time it was higher) and it was spread out over centuries.

I do find it notable that there are more Indians of South Asian descent (around 4 million) in the US now than Native Americans (less than 3 million).

Also a lot of the people who vanished from the scene in a lot of the past mass murders over time mixed with another population and just lost their identity. A lot of Americans are doing DNA testing now and find they have Native American genetics. The Aztecs and other natives of Mexico live on in the genes of most Mexicans today. Same thing for most of the conquered lands in the New World.

The mass murder the Romans inflicted on Carthage is probably one of the worst genocides in the ancient world. Most conquering armies just wanted the defeated to settle down and be good subjects to the new rulers.

The 20th century's mass murders happened in a short period of time and most can be traced back to one dictator. That and being more recent highlight them in our memories.
Timur is estimated to have caused the deaths of 17 million people, or 17% of the worlds population and he did that over a course of 2 decades of war by 1400. Pol Pot caused the deaths of roughly 25% of all Cambodians in less than a decade. As a percent of a countries population nothing faster or more terrible than Pol Pot. As a percent of the worlds population, Timur.
 
WindOfChange is supposedly an FSB analyst and sees all the intelligence and planning information. If this is real, it's a window into the thinking of Putin and the Kremlin.

A ship just blew up in Berdyansk. It looks like a landing ship they were using to move supply:

Update: It's the Alligator class Orsk. Apparently it was putting ashore a BTG. It looks like ammunition is cooking off in there. The ship is probably a write off as is most if not all the equipment for a BTG. If the personnel for the unit were onboard a number may have been killed.

It could be an accident or the Ukrainians may have done something. If it was the Ukrainians I'm sure we'll hear about it soon.

Ammunition handling on ships can turn into a disaster quickly. In WW II the US had two bad ammunition loading accidents, one in California and the other in Pearl Harbor both in 1944. In 1943 the Japanese battleship Mutsu had a magazine explosion and sank in port. The magazine had some ammunition that had a reputation for being unstable and that might have been the cause of the loss, but nobody is sure.
WSJ update

Ukraine Strikes Russian Navy as War Enters Second Month


"Ukraine said it struck the Russian-occupied port facilities in the Azov Sea city of Berdyansk Thursday, setting off a large fire and destroying a Russian ship"
 
Might be paywalled - The NYT
Not new info, but important because of who she is and what she describes as what the Russians have done in the past and will do again if not stopped decisively. I hope this is published far and wide in many different publications regardless of perceived political ideology.

I’m the Prime Minister of Estonia. Putin Can’t Think He’s Won This War.
 
In sheer numbers of dead in a short period of time I think the list goes"
1 - Mao
2 - Stalin
3 - Hitler

They also did their thing in the 20th century when the world population was relatively large. Other mass murders in history happened when the world population was smaller, and usually the killing took a while.
them in our memories.
Try again as a percentage of world population at the time of events. Anyway, you're mixing quite a few issues. To be clear I am not arguing the huge human costs of any other the ones you list nor any others. I do think, as in at least your first two cases, the counting might well be ascribed to causality that was not solely created by either Mao or Stalin.

For sure I do agree with the majority of your post. Everything globally has accelerated since the industrial revolution, as it is doing today. Nothing actually threatened destruction pre-1945 than ti did before then. Of course, the world now knows happenings just about the instant they happen, in WWII it was much slower, even in Grozny, Aleppo, Bosnia communication was much slower than it is now.

In my opinion the biggest difference in the present crisis is that more people outside of Russia understand Russian thought and Putin that probably have ever been the case before. Above all, this time there is a media-savvy and charismatic leader of the threatened country. Without question both Zelenskyy and the other Ukrainian representatives are attractive, young, articulate white people with a good variety of attractive young women in key roles.

We may not like that, but it is transparently obvious that these people present an irritable focus of sympayju and support. One side effect of new technology is the necessity to present a sympathetic image.

There has never before been such an unequivocally sympathetic set of images for the world.

The totally captivating part is that they are successfully making their potential conquerers look like they really are.
When coupling that with mass exodus of highly qualified young Russians, the Western World is in thrall.

I hope that is enough.
 
Try again as a percentage of world population at the time of events. Anyway, you're mixing quite a few issues. To be clear I am not arguing the huge human costs of any other the ones you list nor any others. I do think, as in at least your first two cases, the counting might well be ascribed to causality that was not solely created by either Mao or Stalin.
That's where you are dead wrong... The rest of your analysis is right on the money but not this. Mao and Stalin were directly responsible for more deaths than anyone in history. And while Timur killed his enemies' population mostly, the communist dictators killed their OWN people foremost. That's a whole new level of perversion.
 
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I'm going to suggest lets stop the who was the worst and my own apologies for contributing. As our dodgie art lover has suggested, lets stay on tack.

Lots of updates on the NATO meeting today. Committing to sending battle groups to eastern Europe. It is a huge increase in spend, 40,000 soldiers sent to Slovakia Bulgaria Rumania and Hungry. You don't see the Baltics and Poland because they already had seen similar groups formed and deployed. Previously NATO only had a single brigade setup in Romania.

The US doubled down on calling out Russians for War Crimes. That is not going to end well for the Russian Military and FSB.

US and EU are planning to go for Russias gold reserves. Long overdue.