Russia/Ukraine conflict

[stopcrazypp]

I think Joe got caught up in the emotions of seeing the refugees in Poland when he made the comment about Putin needing to go. The White House scrambled to issue a retraction/clarification. A lot of us probably agree, but backing a paranoid Putin into a corner may not be the wisest move at this junction.

It was not part of his prepared statement. I agree with above that most likely this will be used widely in propaganda by Russia (and any other sympathizing countries and people).
Biden says Putin 'cannot remain in power,' the White House says otherwise

 

[SmokyPeat]

It was not part of his prepared statement. I agree with above that most likely this will be used widely in propaganda by Russia (and any other sympathizing countries and people).
Biden says Putin 'cannot remain in power,' the White House says otherwise

Yeah, that was clearly an off the cuff comment. Just not fantastic statescraft. He means well, and is dealing with this mess pretty effectively, overall. I won't begrudge him for saying what many of us are thinking.

 

[RSpanner]

Replacing Vlad with a cabal of dodgy billionaires is not a solution to Russia's woes. He may die of natural causes, he may be disposed of by another would be, but unless the Russian people rise up and do a Charscesue on him there is no solution in sight. And seeing there is no succession planning, quite the reverse, his demise or deposition by whatever means is likely to be followed by chaos. And the west better be ready to pitch in and help lest another Putin arises. There will be plenty of competition.
If anything happens to Vlad I do not expect his competitor at present in jail to survive.

 

[SmokyPeat]

I think there's little chance that Putin's successor will be nearly as malignant. At least not in the near term. That kind of malignancy generally takes time to incubate in dictators.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

"Clapper: Biden’s Putin comments may have been intended for a specific audience​

Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper shares his thoughts after President Biden said Russian President Vladimir Putin “cannot remain in power” during remarks in Poland. The White House said afterward that it was not a call for regime change: https://cnn.it/3uA0Wj7"

 

[wdolson]

Replacing Vlad with a cabal of dodgy billionaires is not a solution to Russia's woes. He may die of natural causes, he may be disposed of by another would be, but unless the Russian people rise up and do a Charscesue on him there is no solution in sight. And seeing there is no succession planning, quite the reverse, his demise or deposition by whatever means is likely to be followed by chaos. And the west better be ready to pitch in and help lest another Putin arises. There will be plenty of competition.
If anything happens to Vlad I do not expect his competitor at present in jail to survive.

The people are not going to rise up unless and until the internal police are very severely weakened. They are way too brutal and way too strong for the people to rise up.

The best chance for regime change is a palace coup and they will likely put somebody in place who doesn't have the ambitions outside of Russia and will focus inward. Then there is a chance for the different security services with divided loyalties will fight one another until they are too engaged and weakened that a popular uprising can happen. That would likely take years to get to that point.

 

[heltok]

8min video with action where Ukrainian soldiers captures ”100” russian prisoners:

Чили и Ко Харьков 👁

⚡️ Вчера нашим подразделением, в ходе наступательной операции, был освобождён населенный пункт Ольховка. ⚔️В бою было уничтожено около 70 единиц живой силы противника, 3 единицы техники, затрофеены КШМ и МТЛБ, а так же взяты в плен 27 оккупантов. Небольшой промо-ролик с операции, как это...

t.me

Also Chechen soldiers shooting randomly at Ukrainian buildings:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507813380245053441

 

[wdolson]

8min video with action where Ukrainian soldiers captures ”100” russian prisoners:

Чили и Ко Харьков 👁

⚡️ Вчера нашим подразделением, в ходе наступательной операции, был освобождён населенный пункт Ольховка. ⚔️В бою было уничтожено около 70 единиц живой силы противника, 3 единицы техники, затрофеены КШМ и МТЛБ, а так же взяты в плен 27 оккупантов. Небольшой промо-ролик с операции, как это...

t.me

Also Chechen soldiers shooting randomly at Ukrainian buildings:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1507813380245053441

From what I've read elsewhere the Chechen troops are essentially LARPers. They show up for the photo ops, but otherwise don't do much of anything.

 

[nativewolf]

The people are not going to rise up unless and until the internal police are very severely weakened. They are way too brutal and way too strong for the people to rise up.

The best chance for regime change is a palace coup and they will likely put somebody in place who doesn't have the ambitions outside of Russia and will focus inward. Then there is a chance for the different security services with divided loyalties will fight one another until they are too engaged and weakened that a popular uprising can happen. That would likely take years to get to that point.

They did it before In Moscow 20 years ago or so, they did it in Kiev just a decade ago. They did it in Romania after the fall. They did it in Beijing when GW stood by. They did it in Tehran and overthrew the Shah. Etc etc.

 

[nativewolf]

Replacing Vlad with a cabal of dodgy billionaires is not a solution to Russia's woes. He may die of natural causes, he may be disposed of by another would be, but unless the Russian people rise up and do a Charscesue on him there is no solution in sight. And seeing there is no succession planning, quite the reverse, his demise or deposition by whatever means is likely to be followed by chaos. And the west better be ready to pitch in and help lest another Putin arises. There will be plenty of competition.
If anything happens to Vlad I do not expect his competitor at present in jail to survive.

If you watch the videos on from the Finnish Intelligence officer that I posted and that were posted again, with updates, he specifically speaks to the succession question. It seems there is a succession plan.

 

[jbcarioca]

For the people of Central and Eastern Europe communism=socialism. And we learnt that the hard way. 'Nuff said. Please don't argue if you don't have first hand experience of the "worker's paradise"

Of course the two are not in any way analogous, except for people on the political; right in most cases.
In most of Europe the Social Democrats, under widely disparate names, have been a basic part of social fabric.
Things such as :
-universal primary and secondary education;
-universal health care;
-one of many forms of universal basic income and/or;
-near universal unemployment insurance.
All of those have been decreed widely as 'socialist' or 'communist'.
Please don't equate those two. They are not the same.
"The people Centra and Eastern Europe" are not in any way monolithic. Whatever you or others 'learned the hard way' equating two different subjects a myriad economic, linguistic and cultural groups does not really work well.
In this post I am not advocating any given point of view. I am insisting that no people are really monolithic.

In this thread almost all of us seem to be promoting the right of self-determination for the people of Ukraine.
What form they choose and what policies they choose to pursue should be their choice.

We all must accept that in many parts of the former USSR, there are significant numbers of people who what very different things from each other. Of course that is true all over the world with separatist movements in Spain, France, The UK, The USA, the Philippines and much of the world. That is generally because people have different linguistic and cultural character which also reflect in political preferences, I am not mentioning several of the most famous and virulent ones.

So, I disagree with you, not about you beliefs, for you have every right to have them. It is just that they are not in any way universal ones.

For example, Putin is not the only Russian nostalgic for past glories, mythical or factual though they were.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

.../ In most of Europe the Social Democrats, under widely disparate names, have been a basic part of social fabric.
Things such as :
-universal primary and secondary education;
-universal health care;
-one of many forms of universal basic income and/or;
-near universal unemployment insurance. /...

In Sweden for example, The Swedish Social Democratic Party held government power uninterruptedly from 1936 to 1976. And with the exception for three years they also held power between 1982 and 2006. Even if the political right have held government intermittently since 1976, the Swedish political right has always risked loosing to the Social Democrats in probably all elections. Therefore they have always had to attune their political platforms to the one of the Social Democrats. Up until 1992 the Swedish Social Democratic Party basically shaped Sweden into what it is today (with the exception being the 1992 so called 'free school reform' – or whatever that is called in English...).

Sources:

Swedish Social Democratic Party - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Other languages

On this page you find information about Socialdemokraterna, The Swedish Social Democratic Party, in languages other than Swedish.

www.socialdemokraterna.se

 

[jbcarioca]

They did it before In Moscow 20 years ago or so, they did it in Kiev just a decade ago. They did it in Romania after the fall. They did it in Beijing when GW stood by. They did it in Tehran and overthrew the Shah. Etc etc.

Absolutely. As in some cases brutality and revolution are related. If people become sufficiently clear that chaos reigns they do tend to choose stability and order over chaos. That happened in Iran, I was there as that happened. My friends, mostly westernized and educated, supported the revolution. Many of them left soon after, dismayed with the choices they made.

Let us all remember truthfully, Putin was welcomed. He had a standing ovation in the Bundestag. In the years until 2014 he was lauded more than criticized. Western ones flowed. I was there too, helping develop the financial sector. Everyone was most enthusiastic. I was too, I remember that very well.

It is only after he took Crimea and his loyal Trump left office that all this erupted. It was all there and obvious, but invisible to eyes that did not wish to see, Hence Nord Stream I in 2011 and Nord Stream II in 2012. The truth was there to see, open and blatant, but the world chose to ignore reality. I remember to my own chagrin that I could see reality and chose to ignore it.

Now nearly all my friend and acquaintances have left, not all, but all are fearful.

Precisely the same thing happened in Iran, Yemen, in Lebanon and in many other places I know nothing about. Those I did know.

We cannot blame a political system, all of them have shared blame. We can blame the lust for oil and other natural resources, just as we can blame ancient history as it can be seen in modern times.

Everyone, almost, is either too simplistic, too prejudiced and too stubborn to admit just how horribly the consumerist, petroleum driven 20th century is exploding before our eyes. Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia..all share that specific materialistic obsession.

Now, what do we do in our modern world? We try to reduce the price of petroleum, not replace it.

Wish I could claim that I have not spent most of my career promoting they very causes of these horrors.

 

[iPlug]

Nope 100% agree. You missed few more of the pre war Soviet German collaborations:

1922 Rapallo treaty of military collaboration (with Weimar republic though, renewed in 1926 broken by soviets in late 1933) giving both USSR and Germany a way to train new modern armies. This includes armor and air schools attended by both Soviet and German officers that later would face on the battlefield. Chemical weapons research too
1935 credit agreement providing Nazi Germany with raw materials
1935 Molotov at the 7th communist party Congress stressing the importance of good relations with Hitler's Germany
1939 Ribbentrop Molotov pact and secret protocol giving USSR part of Poland, the Baltics and part of Romania (USSR in 1940 actually pisses off Germany by biting more of Romania than agreed - at time Romania is Germany's ally and main oil source)
1940 October November USSR holds negotiations to join the Axis (Hitler not really interested as operation Barbarossa is already in planning)

Also on slightly different topic, but around the same time
Late 1920 conflict between the Communist Party of Germany (KPD) and the social Democratic party fundamentally contributed to the demise of the Weimar Republic. USSR complete control of KPD pushes it towards conflict with the social democrats and creates an opportunity for the NSDAP to come to power in 1933. Bonus points for getting former socialist and later communist party member Joseph Goebbels his start in politics
1932-1933 Holodomor, the big famine that killed millions of Ukrainians
1940 Katyn Forrest massacre of polish army officers (another reason why the poles love the Russians)
1945 the rape (literally) of Germany by advancing soviet troops. Not quite the rape of Nanking but same category
1945 May USSR finally declares war on Japan so they can occupy the Kurile Islands.

Bottom line, the rest of the world should appreciate the sacrifices of the common Soviet soldiers in defeating Hitler. USSR on the other side has played the whole period only and only to their own interest, from the position of a bully whenever possible. Pretty much the same as the others but with a heavier dose of disregard for human life than most other countries.

For a lot of reasons personal and otherwise I did read quite a bit about this part of Europe history

Soviet collaboration with Nazi Germany ran deep and for most of the ~20 years pre-WW2. Economic and military cooperation with weapons development and training was extensive and there were multiple (secret at the time and for many years after) Nazi/Soviet joint military bases and industrial facilities on Soviet territory.

For those interested, recommend a great book on this, "Faustian Bargain" from Ian Johnson.

 

[Sandor]

Of course the two are not in any way analogous, except for people on the political; right in most cases.
In most of Europe the Social Democrats, under widely disparate names, have been a basic part of social fabric.
Things such as :
-universal primary and secondary education;
-universal health care;
-one of many forms of universal basic income and/or;
-near universal unemployment insurance.
All of those have been decreed widely as 'socialist' or 'communist'.
Please don't equate those two. They are not the same.
"The people Centra and Eastern Europe" are not in any way monolithic. Whatever you or others 'learned the hard way' equating two different subjects a myriad economic, linguistic and cultural groups does not really work well.
In this post I am not advocating any given point of view. I am insisting that no people are really monolithic.
[...]
So, I disagree with you, not about you beliefs, for you have every right to have them. It is just that they are not in any way universal ones.

For example, Putin is not the only Russian nostalgic for past glories, mythical or factual though they were.

I wanted to just flag your post as a dislike. But it needs a rebuttal. This will be the last time I will try to shed light on the "workers' paradise". For your information, post 1944 the Social-Democrats in the former soviet block shared the same communist prison cells with the Christian-Democrats or similar. Both center-left and center-right democratic parties were made illegal and most of their leadership was arrested; a lot died in prisons. Amazingly a lot of the former extreme right made it out just fine; dropping the "national" part and keeping the "socialist" one worked well for quite a few of the lower level former nazi or similar. Every repressive regime needs more torturers, why waste the ones already trained?

Honestly I think our conflict of ideas can be summarized as following: you think social-democracy=socialism. I think communism=socialism.

All the eastern block states were self described as socialist states building communism. So forgive me when I say you are either sadly misinformed or ignorant of the reality behind Iron Curtain 1944-1989. I can provide you with plenty of legit literature to show you what "socialism" meant there. Socialism in the West Europe was the exception not the rule. Almost everywhere else socialism was synonymous with oppression of the civil society. Judging from the track record of the communism in Western Europe too, world should be happy that they never managed to get a real base. Do you remember the Italy's Red Brigades, or Germany's Red Army Faction, or France's Action Directe or Ireland's INLA? All of them financed, trained and supported by the socialist/communist regimes of the Eastern block. I can provide you with plenty of examples across multiple eastern block countries supporting this but I will keep it out of the thread as there have been enough tangents. Private message me if you want details backed by literature. I will not post again on this topic

Returning to the main topic, please note that if you dig deep in the history the of current hardcore supporters of Putin's/Russia's invasion of Ukraine on twitter/FB/etc, you will discover than other than the obvious bots (who just started posting last month but now have 100s of posts daily), there are exactly 2 groups: extreme-left (communists from pretty much everywhere) and extreme-right (russian nationalists or from other pro-totalitarian groups). Isn't this amazing? History doesn't necessarily repeat but sure enough it follows the same pattern... Why do you think Putin made sure that all pro-democratic internal opposition was destroyed? Both center-left and center-right? Putin is the real descendant of Hitler's policies in the 21st century... In the whole modern history extreme-right and extreme-left had always managed to shake hands behind the back of democracy. It hasn't stopped.

 

[SageBrush]

Same reaction. I think Elon is being naive in this instance

I've been thinking about this some more.
Elon may decide to give his private podium over to Hitler, Trump, Putin, Pot and others, but I disagree. Vehemently

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Everyone, almost, is either too simplistic, too prejudiced and too stubborn to admit just how horribly the consumerist, petroleum driven 20th century is exploding before our eyes. Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia..all share that specific materialistic obsession.

It's as simple as scarcity. Since the dawn of human civilization we've lived in a world of scarcity. Ripping each other apart to gain a bigger share of a pie that couldn't feed everyone. Fossil fuels came along and supercharged that dynamic.

Now we're entering sustainable abundance. An era where everyone on the planet can easily live a modern and relatively carefree life, and that dynamic can be sustained through the generations. We just haven't noticanly moved toward it yet.

We'll be much more decent 5/10/50 years from now within this dynamic. Political ideology has nothing to do with it. Communism was simply much easier to corrupt and let our worst impulses rise to the top more easily than a system with more friction like democracy.

Focus on scaling Megapack production.

 

[Tiger]

Looks like someone's familiarized with Sun Tzu's art of war:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508123772406145030

 

[SageBrush]

I won't begrudge him for saying what many of us are thinking.

Putin can invade Ukraine and destroy the country, and declare his plan to eradicate the current Gov and face no blowback , but
saying that Putin should be eliminated is verbotten ?

How in the world did Americans buy into this Putin declared double standard ?

 

[SageBrush]

I wanted to just flag your post as a dislike. But it needs a rebuttal.

Any economic system can be totalitarian, and any economic system can have a dictator.

Labels have a way of being fluid, but in the early 1950's countries that were (to varying degrees) socialist economies and politically aligned with the USSR were labeled (and sometimes self-labeled) "Communist."

Your understanding is grounded in a puerile ideology that declares that a successful economy is "democratic" and "capitalist" while an economy that you label "socialist" is failing by definition. Sorry, but your POV is laughable, and rejected.