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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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Any economic system can be totalitarian, and any economic system can have a dictator.

Labels have a way of being fluid, but in the early 1950's countries that were (to varying degrees) socialist economies and politically aligned with the USSR were labeled (and sometimes self-labeled) "Communist."

Your understanding is grounded in a puerile ideology that declares that a successful economy is "democratic" and "capitalist" while an economy that you label "socialist" is failing by definition. Sorry, but your POV is laughable, and rejected.
Coming from someone with your and i quote "puerile" understanding, I consider that a praise. I'd wish you'd have lived under communism. Maybe you can now visit and live as a citizen in Venezuela or North Korea which are still pushing the communism ahead and see what's about.

And a quick look at your history, proved my point about the two category of Putin apologists/supporters. You fall under the hardcore communist one. Now I fully understand your comments and position. Please ignore me from now on; I will be ignoring you. That way we can keep it civil.
 
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It is only after he took Crimea and his loyal Trump left office that all this erupted. It was all there and obvious, but invisible to eyes that did not wish to see, Hence Nord Stream I in 2011 and Nord Stream II in 2012.

I hear this all the time. Putin waiting until Trump leaves because trump was so "loyal" and a Putin "lackey", etc. I truly don't understand this. I would assume if Trump was in Putin's pocket, Putin should invade when Trump was in office. Lets assume Bide is smart and intelligent, and hates Russia -- wouldn't it be 100x harder for Putin to invade NOW, than under Trump assuming as people say, Trump is stupid, less intelligent, etc..

In other words, common sense (occams razor) would say invade while trump is in office. He's Putins lackey and wouldn't do anything. After all, all the media hates him - he probably wouldn't even have the political capital. Trump would not send weapons (as Biden is doing now) to Ukraine. Trump would not bring up the specter of WW3 to galvanize opposition to Putin or even entertain the idea of a "no fly zone". Trump would basically be a Neville Chamberlain gas lighting the American public as best as he can to do nothing while doing nothing. Contrast this to Biden who is somewhat of a war hawk fighting for "what is right" - a more dangerous enemy for Putin (if we are to believe the media).

Sun Tzu in the book the "art of war" says to fight when the enemy is at it's weakest, and to by pass and/or wait out your enemies when they are at their strongest. How can people reconcile this if the USA was at it's weakest under Trump? ... and the USA is at it's strongest under Biden. This idea flies against military doctrine.
 
I hear this all the time. Putin waiting until Trump leaves because trump was so "loyal" and a Putin "lackey", etc. I truly don't understand this. I would assume if Trump was in Putin's pocket, Putin should invade when Trump was in office. Lets assume Bide is smart and intelligent, and hates Russia -- wouldn't it be 100x harder for Putin to invade NOW, than under Trump assuming as people say, Trump is stupid, less intelligent, etc..

In other words, common sense (occams razor) would say invade while trump is in office. He's Putins lackey and wouldn't do anything. After all, all the media hates him - he probably wouldn't even have the political capital. Trump would not send weapons (as Biden is doing now) to Ukraine. Trump would not bring up the specter of WW3 to galvanize opposition to Putin or even entertain the idea of a "no fly zone". Trump would basically be a Neville Chamberlain gas lighting the American public as best as he can to do nothing while doing nothing. Contrast this to Biden who is somewhat of a war hawk fighting for "what is right" - a more dangerous enemy for Putin (if we are to believe the media).

Sun Tzu in the book the "art of war" says to fight when the enemy is at it's weakest, and to by pass and/or wait out your enemies when they are at their strongest. How can people reconcile this if the USA was at it's weakest under Trump? ... and the USA is at it's strongest under Biden. This idea flies against military doctrine.
Congress would have sent aid to Ukraine over the former POTUS' veto if necessary. He could have been impeached and actually removed from office. There was no need to shake the boat while Putin had a Putin puppet in the White House. Shaking the boat could end up shaking the Putin puppet right out of that position.
 
Timing wasn't optimally right, in Putin's warped take, under the last US administration for him to invade Ukraine earlier.

Post-covid recovery, as we are in the process of, with ongoing supply chains snarled, high energy prices, Europe remaining largely dependent on Russian oil and natural gas compounded with the clock ticking with rising pressures from LNG export terminals springing up abroad and import terminals in Europe to weaken his future position, and growing renewables, the moment probably looked most optimal for Putin to invade around now. Putin also likely felt the damage done to Western international relations could not be rebuilt in a mere few years.

Over the post 2014 Crimea and Donbas invasion years, he was also still building his war machine chest he was certain he would need, convinced he could build up a sanction-proof reserve of hundreds of billions of dollars.

Fortunately he made a number of poor suppositions and it turns out there was no Goldilocks moment for him; he instead became the catalyst for most of the things he has claimed to fear.
 
I hear this all the time. Putin waiting until Trump leaves because trump was so "loyal" and a Putin "lackey", etc. I truly don't understand this. I would assume if Trump was in Putin's pocket, Putin should invade when Trump was in office.

Fair reasoning.

I don't think Trump is a Putin puppet, anymore than he is a puppet of the N. Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un. Trump simply aspires to be a dictator like them. Do dictators flock together ? Sometimes, when the interests of each are served. Putin cultivated Trump to undermine American resolve against his invasion plans and to slow the transition to clean energy. Russia has been polarizing the American electorate for a long time. I do think that there has been an explosion of conspiracy 'theory' BS in the USA in the past 10 - 15 years, and I think that it has been cultivated by hostile regimes.

Which is not to say that 40% of Merkins are not complete idiots. They are. But this international manipulation has given them legitimacy.
 
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I hear this all the time. Putin waiting until Trump leaves because trump was so "loyal" and a Putin "lackey", etc. I truly don't understand this. I would assume if Trump was in Putin's pocket, Putin should invade when Trump was in office. Lets assume Bide is smart and intelligent, and hates Russia -- wouldn't it be 100x harder for Putin to invade NOW, than under Trump assuming as people say, Trump is stupid, less intelligent, etc..

In other words, common sense (occams razor) would say invade while trump is in office. He's Putins lackey and wouldn't do anything. After all, all the media hates him - he probably wouldn't even have the political capital. Trump would not send weapons (as Biden is doing now) to Ukraine. Trump would not bring up the specter of WW3 to galvanize opposition to Putin or even entertain the idea of a "no fly zone". Trump would basically be a Neville Chamberlain gas lighting the American public as best as he can to do nothing while doing nothing. Contrast this to Biden who is somewhat of a war hawk fighting for "what is right" - a more dangerous enemy for Putin (if we are to believe the media).

Sun Tzu in the book the "art of war" says to fight when the enemy is at it's weakest, and to by pass and/or wait out your enemies when they are at their strongest. How can people reconcile this if the USA was at it's weakest under Trump? ... and the USA is at it's strongest under Biden. This idea flies against military doctrine.
Putin's main issue is NATO, especially NATO's eastward expansion and double especially inviting Ukraine to join. Trump was working to destroy NATO, so Putin was happy to grab popcorn and watch.

Biden worked to repair US/Europe ties, but that takes time and disagreement over issues like Nordstream 2 slowed progress. Then the Afghan debacle knocked Biden down a few notches. So Putin hatched a plan to quickly install a puppet government in Kyiv.

"And it would have worked, too, if not for those pesky (Ukrainian) kids!"
 
I hear this all the time. Putin waiting until Trump leaves because trump was so "loyal" and a Putin "lackey", etc. I truly don't understand this. I would assume if Trump was in Putin's pocket, Putin should invade when Trump was in office. Lets assume Bide is smart and intelligent, and hates Russia -- wouldn't it be 100x harder for Putin to invade NOW, than under Trump assuming as people say, Trump is stupid, less intelligent, etc..

In other words, common sense (occams razor) would say invade while trump is in office. He's Putins lackey and wouldn't do anything. After all, all the media hates him - he probably wouldn't even have the political capital. Trump would not send weapons (as Biden is doing now) to Ukraine. Trump would not bring up the specter of WW3 to galvanize opposition to Putin or even entertain the idea of a "no fly zone". Trump would basically be a Neville Chamberlain gas lighting the American public as best as he can to do nothing while doing nothing. Contrast this to Biden who is somewhat of a war hawk fighting for "what is right" - a more dangerous enemy for Putin (if we are to believe the media).

Sun Tzu in the book the "art of war" says to fight when the enemy is at it's weakest, and to by pass and/or wait out your enemies when they are at their strongest. How can people reconcile this if the USA was at it's weakest under Trump? ... and the USA is at it's strongest under Biden. This idea flies against military doctrine.
Putin does not need to invade countries whose leaders support hm, passively or actively. He's demonstrated that repeatedly. OTOH, his territorial objectives were clear when he was a Deputy mayor of Saint Petersburg.
 
They did it before In Moscow 20 years ago or so, they did it in Kiev just a decade ago. They did it in Romania after the fall. They did it in Beijing when GW stood by. They did it in Tehran and overthrew the Shah. Etc etc.

I think it was posted here a few days ago, there was a video explaining how Putin has invested tons of money into internal security police to control the population. He has taken it to a degree never seen before. The population is incapable of rising up to any extent until the security police are weakened.

In Sweden for example, The Swedish Social Democratic Party held government power uninterruptedly from 1936 to 1976. And with the exception for three years they also held power between 1982 and 2006. Even if the political right have held government intermittently since 1976, the Swedish political right has always risked loosing to the Social Democrats in probably all elections. Therefore they have always had to attune their political platforms to the one of the Social Democrats. Up until 1992 the Swedish Social Democratic Party basically shaped Sweden into what it is today (with the exception being the 1992 so called 'free school reform' – or whatever that is called in English...).

Sources:

I have talked in the past about how in American politics one party sets the narrative for 30-40 years and the other party has to adopt the language of the party controlling the narrative to get anywhere at all. The last time the narrative changed definitively was with Reagan, though I think it's changing now. But from the early 80s until recently the Democrats had to adopt Republican talking points to get anywhere. Before that there was over 40 years of New Deal politics controlled by the Democrats (established by Roosevelt in the 30s) and the Republicans had to adapt.

It appears from what you say that in Sweden the Social Democrats have controlled the narrative since the 30s.

I wanted to just flag your post as a dislike. But it needs a rebuttal. This will be the last time I will try to shed light on the "workers' paradise". For your information, post 1944 the Social-Democrats in the former soviet block shared the same communist prison cells with the Christian-Democrats or similar. Both center-left and center-right democratic parties were made illegal and most of their leadership was arrested; a lot died in prisons. Amazingly a lot of the former extreme right made it out just fine; dropping the "national" part and keeping the "socialist" one worked well for quite a few of the lower level former nazi or similar. Every repressive regime needs more torturers, why waste the ones already trained?

Honestly I think our conflict of ideas can be summarized as following: you think social-democracy=socialism. I think communism=socialism.

All the eastern block states were self described as socialist states building communism. So forgive me when I say you are either sadly misinformed or ignorant of the reality behind Iron Curtain 1944-1989. I can provide you with plenty of legit literature to show you what "socialism" meant there. Socialism in the West Europe was the exception not the rule. Almost everywhere else socialism was synonymous with oppression of the civil society. Judging from the track record of the communism in Western Europe too, world should be happy that they never managed to get a real base. Do you remember the Italy's Red Brigades, or Germany's Red Army Faction, or France's Action Directe or Ireland's INLA? All of them financed, trained and supported by the socialist/communist regimes of the Eastern block. I can provide you with plenty of examples across multiple eastern block countries supporting this but I will keep it out of the thread as there have been enough tangents. Private message me if you want details backed by literature. I will not post again on this topic

Returning to the main topic, please note that if you dig deep in the history the of current hardcore supporters of Putin's/Russia's invasion of Ukraine on twitter/FB/etc, you will discover than other than the obvious bots (who just started posting last month but now have 100s of posts daily), there are exactly 2 groups: extreme-left (communists from pretty much everywhere) and extreme-right (russian nationalists or from other pro-totalitarian groups). Isn't this amazing? History doesn't necessarily repeat but sure enough it follows the same pattern... Why do you think Putin made sure that all pro-democratic internal opposition was destroyed? Both center-left and center-right? Putin is the real descendant of Hitler's policies in the 21st century... In the whole modern history extreme-right and extreme-left had always managed to shake hands behind the back of democracy. It hasn't stopped.

I agree with you that Putin is the modern Hitler. "Putin" may become the go to term for everything evil in the coming years.

I can see you were very traumatized by your childhood in the USSR and you appear to possibly have PTSD from it. I don't blame you, any rational person would have it from your experiences. I'm very thankful that I didn't grow up in that version of hell and I wish nobody had to.

What's being discussed here is what different cultures and people from those cultures go to when they hear the word "socialism". What passed for socialism behind the Iron Curtain is different from what was called socialism in Europe outside the Iron Curtain. People are shaped by their experiences.

Here in the US the communism=socialism thing was pushed by politicians who did not want to see the US become more like Western Europe with its extensive social safety nets. For the generations who grew up with the USSR being the "evil empire" that meme is still there.

When people hear the term, their minds go to different places. For you it's a version of hell you lived through, others think of something different.

I hear this all the time. Putin waiting until Trump leaves because trump was so "loyal" and a Putin "lackey", etc. I truly don't understand this. I would assume if Trump was in Putin's pocket, Putin should invade when Trump was in office. Lets assume Bide is smart and intelligent, and hates Russia -- wouldn't it be 100x harder for Putin to invade NOW, than under Trump assuming as people say, Trump is stupid, less intelligent, etc..

In other words, common sense (occams razor) would say invade while trump is in office. He's Putins lackey and wouldn't do anything. After all, all the media hates him - he probably wouldn't even have the political capital. Trump would not send weapons (as Biden is doing now) to Ukraine. Trump would not bring up the specter of WW3 to galvanize opposition to Putin or even entertain the idea of a "no fly zone". Trump would basically be a Neville Chamberlain gas lighting the American public as best as he can to do nothing while doing nothing. Contrast this to Biden who is somewhat of a war hawk fighting for "what is right" - a more dangerous enemy for Putin (if we are to believe the media).

Sun Tzu in the book the "art of war" says to fight when the enemy is at it's weakest, and to by pass and/or wait out your enemies when they are at their strongest. How can people reconcile this if the USA was at it's weakest under Trump? ... and the USA is at it's strongest under Biden. This idea flies against military doctrine.

This invasion is driven by something shifting in Putin's mind over the last 2 years. He has isolated himself profoundly over the last two years and he's only been listening to two people, one someone who is obsessed with the history of 1600s Russia and the other a Russian Orthodox mystic with some weird ideas about Russia's place in the world.

Historically Putin has been careful with his territorial ambitions and only bitten off what his military could grab in a short campaign. This war is very uncharacteristic for him. It's a hail mary pass campaign that failed miserably.

Putin also knows what the real election results were for the most recent elections and I think there were signs he is losing his iron grip over the population. Dissent has been growing in recent years and he thought a wag the dog campaign of glorious conquest would restore his power and shut of the dissenters. He is supposed to stand for re-election in (I think) 2024 and he wanted to be able to point to the "glorious" conquest of the break away province of Ukraine as his crowning glory.

What happened in the 2020 election in the US was probably not a major factor in his calculations. He thought Trump had fatally weakened NATO for him and he dismissed Biden as a senile old fool. To someone like Putin Biden's style is seen as weak. Most strongmen would discount Biden as weak. But politicians like Biden can be strong where it counts too, it's just so far outside the authoritarian's playbook that they don't see the strength there.
 
Absolutely. As in some cases brutality and revolution are related. If people become sufficiently clear that chaos reigns they do tend to choose stability and order over chaos. That happened in Iran, I was there as that happened. My friends, mostly westernized and educated, supported the revolution. Many of them left soon after, dismayed with the choices they made.

Let us all remember truthfully, Putin was welcomed. He had a standing ovation in the Bundestag. In the years until 2014 he was lauded more than criticized. Western ones flowed. I was there too, helping develop the financial sector. Everyone was most enthusiastic. I was too, I remember that very well.

It is only after he took Crimea and his loyal Trump left office that all this erupted. It was all there and obvious, but invisible to eyes that did not wish to see, Hence Nord Stream I in 2011 and Nord Stream II in 2012. The truth was there to see, open and blatant, but the world chose to ignore reality. I remember to my own chagrin that I could see reality and chose to ignore it.

Now nearly all my friend and acquaintances have left, not all, but all are fearful.

Precisely the same thing happened in Iran, Yemen, in Lebanon and in many other places I know nothing about. Those I did know.

We cannot blame a political system, all of them have shared blame. We can blame the lust for oil and other natural resources, just as we can blame ancient history as it can be seen in modern times.

Everyone, almost, is either too simplistic, too prejudiced and too stubborn to admit just how horribly the consumerist, petroleum driven 20th century is exploding before our eyes. Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Russia..all share that specific materialistic obsession.

Now, what do we do in our modern world? We try to reduce the price of petroleum, not replace it.

Wish I could claim that I have not spent most of my career promoting they very causes of these horrors.
Its now down to a race for batteries friend. That's the sum and total of it at this point. LiFePO plants announcements are exploding all over. Recently the news from CA is that batteries are the new thing, solar is abundant. Batteries are coming it is going to take 3 more years to really scale them up. After that we just have a continuous cycle of improvements and reductions in oil reliance. With that comes a decrease in reliance on dictators and bad actors. Then...then comes an uncertain future full of exciting possibilities.
 
I think it was posted here a few days ago, there was a video explaining how Putin has invested tons of money into internal security police to control the population. He has taken it to a degree never seen before. The population is incapable of rising up to any extent until the security police are weakened.



I have talked in the past about how in American politics one party sets the narrative for 30-40 years and the other party has to adopt the language of the party controlling the narrative to get anywhere at all. The last time the narrative changed definitively was with Reagan, though I think it's changing now. But from the early 80s until recently the Democrats had to adopt Republican talking points to get anywhere. Before that there was over 40 years of New Deal politics controlled by the Democrats (established by Roosevelt in the 30s) and the Republicans had to adapt.

It appears from what you say that in Sweden the Social Democrats have controlled the narrative since the 30s.



I agree with you that Putin is the modern Hitler. "Putin" may become the go to term for everything evil in the coming years.

I can see you were very traumatized by your childhood in the USSR and you appear to possibly have PTSD from it. I don't blame you, any rational person would have it from your experiences. I'm very thankful that I didn't grow up in that version of hell and I wish nobody had to.

What's being discussed here is what different cultures and people from those cultures go to when they hear the word "socialism". What passed for socialism behind the Iron Curtain is different from what was called socialism in Europe outside the Iron Curtain. People are shaped by their experiences.

Here in the US the communism=socialism thing was pushed by politicians who did not want to see the US become more like Western Europe with its extensive social safety nets. For the generations who grew up with the USSR being the "evil empire" that meme is still there.

When people hear the term, their minds go to different places. For you it's a version of hell you lived through, others think of something different.



This invasion is driven by something shifting in Putin's mind over the last 2 years. He has isolated himself profoundly over the last two years and he's only been listening to two people, one someone who is obsessed with the history of 1600s Russia and the other a Russian Orthodox mystic with some weird ideas about Russia's place in the world.

Historically Putin has been careful with his territorial ambitions and only bitten off what his military could grab in a short campaign. This war is very uncharacteristic for him. It's a hail mary pass campaign that failed miserably.

Putin also knows what the real election results were for the most recent elections and I think there were signs he is losing his iron grip over the population. Dissent has been growing in recent years and he thought a wag the dog campaign of glorious conquest would restore his power and shut of the dissenters. He is supposed to stand for re-election in (I think) 2024 and he wanted to be able to point to the "glorious" conquest of the break away province of Ukraine as his crowning glory.

What happened in the 2020 election in the US was probably not a major factor in his calculations. He thought Trump had fatally weakened NATO for him and he dismissed Biden as a senile old fool. To someone like Putin Biden's style is seen as weak. Most strongmen would discount Biden as weak. But politicians like Biden can be strong where it counts too, it's just so far outside the authoritarian's playbook that they don't see the strength there.
Again..the more people think something can't happen the more likely it will. Nothing was more repressive than Romania. It happened there. Ukraine...it happened.
 
Putin can invade Ukraine and destroy the country, and declare his plan to eradicate the current Gov and face no blowback , but
saying that Putin should be eliminated is verbotten ?

How in the world did Americans buy into this Putin declared double standard ?
Biden should have said it earlier. Obama should have said it earlier. GW jr basically said it but did nothing about it. Trump was bought and paid for. People making excuses for Trump only have to look at his banker (whose fled the country) and bank (DB) to realize that it was Putins money all along that stood ol donnie "i can bankrupt a casino- twice" trump back up.
 
Interview w former director of European and Russian affairs for the National Security Council, retired Lt Col Vindman. He makes some good points. From The Washington Post. Might be paywalled. Here is a section I thought informative which runs counter to some others’ viewpoints:

“So you don’t buy into Putin’s warnings that that would release catastrophic consequences?​

He is very effective at preying on hopes and fears. For a long time, he preyed on our hopes that we could have a normal relationship, that the largest country in the world, by territory, was going to be a partner, whether with regards to climate change or terrorism. With very little progress. We put all our eggs on the promise, the hope, of a good relationship instead of committing to relationships that actually could bear fruit.

He’s also been very effective at preying on our fears. Extremely effective. This idea that somehow he’s a madman or somehow we’re lurching toward nuclear war — why would he pick a fight with a much, much more capable adversary if he’s already bogged down in Ukraine? And it is an absurd notion that sending over Cold War-era aircraft in NATO’s inventory to Ukraine to pilot is going to precipitate World War III. On what basis would Putin want to increase the prospects of mutually assured destruction? None. The guy loves himself. He sits a football field away from his closest allies and closest advisers because he doesn’t want to get sick. He is not suicidal. For him, this is all rational, based on the fact that he got away with things for so long.


 
From what I've read elsewhere the Chechen troops are essentially LARPers. They show up for the photo ops, but otherwise don't do much of anything.
I saw a video earlier of them firing on the upper floors of a building (in a way that is unlikely to hit anyone inside) and then later evacuating children from the basement of that building. It very much appears like they are there largely for photo ops.
 
Putin does not need to invade countries whose leaders support hm, passively or actively. He's demonstrated that repeatedly. OTOH, his territorial objectives were clear when he was a Deputy mayor of Saint Petersburg.
Was going to say the same thing. People should keep in mind examples like Belarus and also the administration before 2014. If he has people sympathetic (if not a puppet) to him in the government, he doesn't need to go to war. He lost that in Ukraine.
 
  • Informative
Reactions: SwedishAdvocate
This is the key part of the war now:-

In some areas Ukraine is having a lot of success, but they may only be mopping up Russian rear-guard units left to buy time, while most of the Russian forces are focusing on this objective.

From memory the gap Russia needs to close to encircle the Ukraine troops is something like 200km.

Russia is slightly more dangerous now that they have a realistic possibly achievable strategy,

But the other big shift is:-

Ukraine knows the Russian strategy, if Russian air power is less effective, that evens up the war.

Also while mopping by those rear-guard forces, Ukraine is capturing a lot of equipment.

Finally Zelensky in an interview with some Russian media outlets indicated some possible flexibility on Donbas.
Russian authorities banned that broadcast, but there is still some hope for a relatively speedy negotiated settlement.

Continuing to fight isn't risk free for either party.
 
The socialdemocrat/socialist/communist debate is bit OT, but it’s an important one. Imo often people try to simplify this discussion and it becomes more about semantics than the real world. Nobody knows what words mean, it mostly what we think other people think that they mean. See for example:
1648426451635.png

Basically this is how our entire language works. Everything is semantics... We don’t really know what any word means, we just guess it on a scale based on how other people have used and reacted to the word.

Wrt to socialism etc, these are neither binary ie either a country is 0% or 100% socialist and it’s not on one dimension such as tax %, heck even tax% is not a single dimension. And then we have a timescale, so things change over time. Saying that Sweden is successful because they are socialdemocrat, while China is poor because they today are capitalist is not the entire story, as these things takes time to have an effect. This is how taxes changed in Sweden over the last 170years.
1648426677666.png


So trying to label Sweden as only being one thing is not the entire truth. We can say that in some period 1850-1920 Sweden was less socialist, in 1970-1990 it was more socialist and today it is a bit less. At least with regards to taxes, but that’s probably correlated to other dimensions as well. These time periods have together built the country and thus the merit/blame should not go to either of these.

And some effects of policies take long time to show, some policies such as deficit spending, might improve a country for 5-30years but hurt the country a long time later and by then another system might be in place and have to deal with it. So it’s really hard to compare countries and say which policy is the better.
 
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