Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Xdama]

He's dual citizenship, but your statement is only partially correct.

"most" sure they can't travel internationally. But the % of those able to travel internationally had been climbing steadily over the past 20 years. Now, it has been greatly set back, not just by financial constraints (sanctions), but by practical constraints (nearly no one is flying into/out of Russia).

My wife is Russian, yes it may have been climbing however the average salary in Russia even prior to the sanctions was nowhere near enough to meet Western financial entry requirements. Only those on above average salary or with financial backing (be it corporate, educational or sponsorship from a citizen of the country they want to travel to) can afford it.
The entry requirements for UK when my wife moved here were way beyond her means in 2016, they’ve only increased each year. Keep in mind official average salary figures are skewed due to the massive difference between the haves and the have nots. No shop worker, mechanic, cleaner, nurse (ie working class) person in Russia is anywhere near the requirements after they have paid for accommodatio, food (prices not that far removed from UK prices), bills etc. Her grandmothers pension after a full working life is roughly £100 …… per month, the only way she feeds herself and her disabled husband is growing her own veg etc in her (state provided) allotment (think more like a small holding), she pickles and preserves for use in winter.
The fee’s in 2016 for a fiance visa were in the region of £5k plus I had to show I was able to financially support her for the 6mths it was valid for (iirc I had to have £18.5k income minimum). The visa fees are similar for a visitor visa plus they have to show enough funds to cover their stay. She now has indefinite leave to remain but the visa fees over that initial 6yrs have been just shy of £20k.

 

[nativewolf]

Russia oil sales fell over 25% last week. We'll see if that continues

Russia’s Oil Exports Slumped 26% Last Week | OilPrice.com

According to Bloomberg data, Russian crude oil exports fell by 26.3 percent between March 17 and 23

oilprice.com

 

[Xdama]

Zelenskiy says he had a ‘very active diplomatic day’ with world leaders – as it happened

Billionaire lost his sight for several hours, according a source with direct knowledge of the incident; Ukraine president saying his people are ‘paying with their lives’ if sanctions don’t work

www.theguardian.com

 

[madodel]

Most Russians are not able to travel internationall, your neighbour is one of the lucky ones. The financial requirements for foreign visas are well beyond the average working man or woman in Russia.

I've read that IT and other professionals are fleeing Russia now, though Putin is cracking down on it. I have a friend who would like to get out but he may have waited too long.

 

[Xdama]

I've read that IT and other professionals are fleeing Russia now, though Putin is cracking down on it. I have a friend who would like to get out but he may have waited too long.

Yes I’ve seen that, they’ll be in the “have’s“ bracket. He’ll shut the borders soon if ppl keep bailing imo.

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

I've read that IT and other professionals are fleeing Russia now, though Putin is cracking down on it. I have a friend who would like to get out but he may have waited too long.

Yes I’ve seen that, they’ll be in the “have’s“ bracket. He’ll shut the borders soon if ppl keep bailing imo.

Russia has quite the border... Their border to Mongolia for example seems to be a rather long one. That seems to be a decent Democracy. Would it be impossible to cross the border to Mongolia? And then fly out from there...

 

[Sandor]

Russia has quite the border... Their border to Mongolia for example seems to be a rather long one. That seems to be a decent Democracy. Would it be impossible to cross the border to Mongolia? And then fly out from there...

USSR used to have "internal passports" that were needed to move from one region to other, vs "external passports" needed to travel over the borders. Not sure if those "internal" ones are still in use, but it's something that can be used to control the movement of "needed"/"untrusted" people towards the border regions. The other eastern block countries that I am familiar with didn't use them, even in cold war v1.0. It seems to be a pure Russian/Chinese/North Korea thing these days...

 

[ZeApelido]

I hope this is true. Lolz

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508092951997595650

 

[Xdama]

USSR used to have "internal passports" that were needed to move from one region to other, vs "external passports" needed to travel over the borders. Not sure if those "internal" ones are still in use, but it's something that can be used to control the movement of "needed"/"untrusted" people towards the border regions. The other eastern block countries that I am familiar with didn't use them, even in cold war v1.0. It seems to be a pure Russian/Chinese/North Korea thing these days...

Yes they still have internal passports, they need them for most adminstrative things, health, pension, change of name when married, tax etc. and yes they have to re register if they move regions. We had to travel back to my wife’s regional office to change her name in the internal passport so she could get her name changed in the international passport once we married. It’s a bureaucratic nightmare lol.

 

[Xdama]

Yes they still have internal passports, they need them for most adminstrative things, health, pension, change of name when married, tax etc. and yes they have to re register if they move regions. We had to travel back to my wife’s regional office to change her name in the internal passport so she could get her name changed in the international passport once we married. It’s a bureaucratic nightmare lol.

Even her health records from birth are all in paper format, everything has to be done in person, you get shoved from one office to another to another and so on…… none of the offices are remotely close to one another either. In my wifes case it took 10 working days of running around her home city to get a new regional passport with her married name. Fortunately once you have that then the international one can be changed at an embassy.
Getting full UK citizenship is another thing altogether! Another £1400 to the UK gov (even though she’s been working and paying tax here for nigh on 6yrs). Then to rescind her Russian citizenship she has to prove that she has no debt in Russia (inc tax), the only way to prove that is looking like another trip back to her home city. Not something that either of us looks forward to, she hates the place

 

[SwedishAdvocate]

Another possible escape route? Speedboat from somewhere around St. Petersburg to Finland or Estonia!

 

[EVNow]

One of the most detailed notes on the ground status. No idea how reliable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508274710223720450

 

[LightngMcQueen]

Coming from someone with your and i quote "puerile" understanding, I consider that a praise. I'd wish you'd have lived under communism. Maybe you can now visit and live as a citizen in Venezuela or North Korea which are still pushing the communism ahead and see what's about.

And a quick look at your history, proved my point about the two category of Putin apologists/supporters. You fall under the hardcore communist one. Now I fully understand your comments and position. Please ignore me from now on; I will be ignoring you. That way we can keep it civil.

short story
I had a quick scan of this thread and why I truely admire @Sandor efforts ... I think they are hopeless, the gap in understanding is just too wide.

I will leave it at that and retreat back to my cave to where I am following Kamil Galeev, Sergei Perfiliev and Kasparov. Galeev's insights blew my mind and provided fresh impetus to brush up on my Cyrillic.


longer story
TBH lack of understanding of Eastern Europe and communism this thread exemplifies is a bit scary.

As is ... the perceived level of agency/importance attributed to US and Trump/Biden - if those were important we would have seen them in Chechnya, Ossetia, Ukraine during/following 2014, Libya, Syria("red line" credibility fiasco), Kabul ... essentially we would not have had this thread.

That is not to diminish the contribution of US clandestine services which appears to be outstanding ... both in lead up and during the conflict. I think many there were professionally slighted by successful Russian social media interference (elections, BLM, Jan 6) and hacking (Solarwinds being most humiliating). That great work was done behind the back or even despite of politicians.

It maybe rude but with exception of what Zelko and Sandor had contributed most opinions on Russian/European politics here read like vegetarian's opinion on steak grilling. I am 100% serious here, as mostly vegetarian, I have very little advice to offer on meat grilling and I would like to think I have enough of what Gad Saad calls epistemic humility, to not comment much on meat grilling

 

[MC3OZ]

One of the most detailed notes on the ground status. No idea how reliable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508274710223720450

I think that is reasonably accurate, and it tallies with:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508589426246565895

and:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508567395979472898

Overall as far as we can tell, Ukraine is doing well in some areas.

Most important is the 2nd update around Izyum, that is the main area where Russia hopes to make progress.

Probable Ukraine gains around Sumy and Kharkiv are probably because forces have been withdrawn to attack Izyum and in some cases been replaced by rookie conscripts.

So Ukraine may be able to make rapid gains around Sumy and Kharkiv while holding Izyum and making slow gains around Kyiv.
Ukraine may even be able to retake Kherson.

The Russians are probably slowly taking ground in Mariupol.

How the war is going, should influence the negotiations. If Russia can't make some progress around Izyum, it is hard to see what they can gain by continuing the war.

 

[Tiger]

One of the most detailed notes on the ground status. No idea how reliable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508274710223720450

Sounds really biased, as there is no scenario in which Russia wins and sanctions are lifted. At least I personally cancel Russia until they pay reparations and give independence to clearly Ukrainan regions (up to local vote if necessary). Furthermore, RF should remain sanctioned as long as they do not allow freedom of speech and protest to their own population.

 

[EVNow]

Sounds really biased,

Biased .... for / against who ? The author is a well known person in Maryland, US.

 

[Sandor]

Biased .... for / against who ? The author is a well known person in Maryland, US.

Jonimi is in MD? He's by far the most thorough and knowledgeable military commentator on the current war in Ukraine. I'd had sworn that he was in Ukraine, especially when he went offline for almost a week recently. His maps have a lot more information than just the comments if you can read the symbols.

 

[EVNow]

Jonimi is in MD? He's by far the most thorough and knowledgeable military commentator on the current war in Ukraine. I'd had sworn that he was in Ukraine, especially when he went offline for almost a week recently. His maps have a lot more information than just the comments if you can read the symbols.

AFAIK, he is not in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1508277606457692163

 

[Tiger]

Wonder if Ukraine should switch to decentralized government so that it becomes no longer possible to install a puppet government. This way they will fight as long as they have a collective will.

 

[Tiger]

Biased .... for / against who ? The author is a well known person in Maryland, US.

Ok, then it's maybe just ramblings of an old man.