Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Artful Dodger]

I have a personal connection to the story below. The leader of this Canadian Search and Rescue team now working in Kyiv was a Sergeant in my Regiment back in the '80s (I was on the honor guard at his wedding).

Canadian search and rescue team works to find Ukrainian survivors beneath collapsed buildings | CTV News (5 days ago)​

This is yet another example of the tremendous ground-swell of support emanating from the West for Ukraine, and the health and survival of its residents: (we should all be proud)

BTW, my friend was on exercise in Germany with 1 RCHA when the Chernobyl disaster occurred in Apr '86. The Regiment wasn't told about the elevated radiation levels at their location for 6 days. It's somewhat ironic to me at least that he's back, 36 years later, risking his life again to clean up another Russia disaster.

Godspeed, SAR!

 

[CLK350]

A viewpoint rarely considered in this clusterf.k of a conflict

Causes of War in Ukraine

So why did Russia attack Ukraine? Putin’s speech, available on the link below, provides some clues: Russia Ukraine: Vladimir Putin’s full speech (smh.com.au) From the opening paragraph, it is…

historyandwarfare.wordpress.com

 

[petit_bateau]

I don't think the invasion was planned all that long ago. If it was years in the making they would have restructured the army to make it more suited for the invasion. The army they brought was completely unsuited for the fight they got. It's pretty clear the Russians only planned on a 3 day campaign expecting Ukraine to collapse quickly and when it didn't, they were surprised.

This has all the hallmarks of an ad hoc invasion put together in a matter of months, not a well planned campaign.

Russia moved all the heavy equipment into place over a year ago, then had a mobilisation dry run, then a load of exercises, then de-escalated but in fact only moved the people away. In late 2021 Russia remobilised the remaining heavy equipment plus moving in all the units/stuff that the dry-run had hown them that they had forgotten about (such as field hospitals). So this particular invasion has had a minimum gestation period of one-year or more, depending on when one might consider the planning cycle to have started.

 

[madodel]

Russia Seen on Course for Deep Two-Year Recession, 20% Inflation
Economy will contract 9.6% in 2022, 1.5% in 2023, survey shows Inflation seen at 20% this year, forcing rates to stay high

 

[madodel]

Plot to depose Putin 'grows every week' as whistle-blower says FSB fury mounting

Real or just misinformation to screw with the West?

 

[CHGolferJim]

Plot to depose Putin 'grows every week' as whistle-blower says FSB fury mounting

Real or just misinformation to screw with the West?

Who will infiltrate the praetorian guard?

 

[petit_bateau]

Plot to depose Putin 'grows every week' as whistle-blower says FSB fury mounting

Real or just misinformation to screw with the West?

Could you summarise any content in that please ? Quite a few of us wouldn't go near that rag and its ilk even if there was a red hot poker in the wrong place. Thanks.

 

[SageBrush]

misinformation ?

Did you notice the source ?
You are reading the UK child of the 'the Enquirer' and Jared Kushner's rag

 

[wdolson]

I think you got off to a good start in that post, but this part I do not really get. The first election where women were allowed to vote in Sweden was held in 1921. Sweden can not be considered to have been a Democracy before that year...

The United States didn't give women the vote until 1920. New Zealand was the first country to give women the vote in 1893. If women voting is the bare minimum for a democracy, there were no democracies before 1893.

A viewpoint rarely considered in this clusterf.k of a conflict

Causes of War in Ukraine

So why did Russia attack Ukraine? Putin’s speech, available on the link below, provides some clues: Russia Ukraine: Vladimir Putin’s full speech (smh.com.au) From the opening paragraph, it is…

historyandwarfare.wordpress.com

I skimmed this and didn't see anything that was too factually controversial, but the author uses some inflammatory language that sent up some yellow flags such as:
"This is a load of hot air, yet it does provide some clues. Denazification of Ukraine makes no sense. The country is today ruled by the same extreme left regime that rules entirety of the West, and even its president is Jewish and speaks proudly of his family’s Holocaust story. Nor was there any sort of genocide carried out against the Russians in Ukraine."

The claim that the "extreme left" rules the entirety of the West is a bit of a head scratchier assertion.

Russia moved all the heavy equipment into place over a year ago, then had a mobilisation dry run, then a load of exercises, then de-escalated but in fact only moved the people away. In late 2021 Russia remobilised the remaining heavy equipment plus moving in all the units/stuff that the dry-run had hown them that they had forgotten about (such as field hospitals). So this particular invasion has had a minimum gestation period of one-year or more, depending on when one might consider the planning cycle to have started.

You're right something was going on last April. I had missed that in the news when it happened. My first awareness was last fall.

From reading some articles for last April to July it looks like there was some kind of build up, but it was smaller than the eventual invasion force. Maybe there was a scrapped plan for a more limited invasion? Maybe just capture the Donbas?

Plot to depose Putin 'grows every week' as whistle-blower says FSB fury mounting

Real or just misinformation to screw with the West?

There are the WindOfChange letters too which dovetail with some of this
Igor Sushko .com - Racing and Beyond: Putin's plan to reframe invasion of Ukraine as a religious WW3 - 12th letter from the Wind of Change inside the FSB | Professional Race Car Driver

I believe the WindOfChange letters are written to the guy quoted in the article.

A lot of unverifiable information about the FSB coming out. It could mean many things from real dissent to a psyop to people just trying to create 15 minutes of fame for themselves with fake leaks.

 

[madodel]

Could you summarise any content in that please ? Quite a few of us wouldn't go near that rag and its ilk even if there was a red hot poker in the wrong place. Thanks.

"Mr Osechkin described how the lifestyle of FSB officers - historically more moneyed than the average Russian citizen’s - has suffered as the weeks of invasion efforts continue.

A number of FSB agents have been unable to travel to other homes or “take their kids to Disneyland Paris”, he added."

There is more about how unhappy the security apparatchik is these days with the economic fallout in Russia.

How about The Times? Ukraine invasion is going worse than Chechnya, officer tells Moscow Though that is behind a pay wall so not sure if it has the same rumors, but in a The Times Twitter post that pointed me to that article they say similar things about the FSB and cite Vladimir Osechkin, the same source.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506743301122179073

It could all be nothing but crap but I'm just hoping someone does something about the murdering psychopath.

 

[Tiger]

Then President Trump tried five years ago to warn the European countries, especially Germany, about becoming too dependent on Russian oil and gas by shutting down their nuke and coal plants too early.

I find it sad that people try to give Trump credit for a handful of things he said (which he did not invent) while I (or nobody I know) would trust him to even clean their house (or even the toilet), let alone ruin the country.

 

[Tiger]

“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
― Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Judging from the current Russian rhetoric, the world should probably do the opposite of what Russia is telling them to do.

Policy Watch: Is Russia strong or weak? - UPI.com

"Russia is never as strong as she looks; Russia is never as weak as she looks." This quotation, or ones similar to it, have been attributed to Talleyrand, Mette

www.upi.com

 

[bkp_duke]

"Mr Osechkin described how the lifestyle of FSB officers - historically more moneyed than the average Russian citizen’s - has suffered as the weeks of invasion efforts continue.

A number of FSB agents have been unable to travel to other homes or “take their kids to Disneyland Paris”, he added."

There is more about how unhappy the security apparatchik is these days with the economic fallout in Russia.

How about The Times? Ukraine invasion is going worse than Chechnya, officer tells Moscow Though that is behind a pay wall so not sure if it has the same rumors, but in a The Times Twitter post that pointed me to that article they say similar things about the FSB and cite Vladimir Osechkin, the same source.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1506743301122179073

It could all be nothing but crap but I'm just hoping someone does something about the murdering psychopath.

But this eventually just gets us someone else like Putin.

I'm more bold in my wants - I want an uprising of the Russian people and in that revolution the people gut the FSB and all other organizations in Russia of similar ilk that prevent the spread of democracy for the people.

Ya know . . . since we are putting our wish lists out there.

 

[madodel]

But this eventually just gets us someone else like Putin.

I'm more bold in my wants - I want an uprising of the Russian people and in that revolution the people gut the FSB and all other organizations in Russia of similar ilk that prevent the spread of democracy for the people.

Ya know . . . since we are putting our wish lists out there.

Be careful what you wish for. Those folks there still flying the USSR colors want Stalin back.

 

[bkp_duke]

Be careful what you wish for. Those folks there still flying the USSR colors want Stalin back.

My neighbor is Russian (from Russia, not just ancestry). Per him, this is simply not true, no one over there wants Stalin back. They love all their US-invented / Chinese-made gadgets, American food, and ability to travel internationally.

 

[madodel]

My neighbor is Russian (from Russia, not just ancestry). Per him, this is simply not true, no one over there wants Stalin back. They love all their US-invented / Chinese-made gadgets, American food, and ability to travel internationally.

Same for the Russians I know. But I’ve seen interviews with old folks there saying things were good back then. And they miss the Man of Steel. Hopefully there are a lot who believe what we hope.

 

[Xdama]

I find it sad that people try to give Trump credit for a handful of things he said (which he did not invent) while I (or nobody I know) would trust him to even clean their house (or even the toilet), let alone ruin the country.

Any politician who’s in a position of power chucking tweets out left right & centre is in that same boat imo. How the hell he got elected is completely beyond comprehension.

 

[Xdama]

Same for the Russians I know. But I’ve seen interviews with old folks there saying things were good back then. And they miss the Man of Steel. Hopefully there are a lot who believe what we hope.

A lot of the population who were adult pre the break up of the USSR feel that way.

 

[Xdama]

My neighbor is Russian (from Russia, not just ancestry). Per him, this is simply not true, no one over there wants Stalin back. They love all their US-invented / Chinese-made gadgets, American food, and ability to travel internationally.

Most Russians are not able to travel internationall, your neighbour is one of the lucky ones. The financial requirements for foreign visas are well beyond the average working man or woman in Russia.

 

[bkp_duke]

Most Russians are not able to travel internationall, your neighbour is one of the lucky ones. The financial requirements for foreign visas are well beyond the average working man or woman in Russia.

He's dual citizenship, but your statement is only partially correct.

"most" sure they can't travel internationally. But the % of those able to travel internationally had been climbing steadily over the past 20 years. Now, it has been greatly set back, not just by financial constraints (sanctions), but by practical constraints (nearly no one is flying into/out of Russia).