Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Xdama]

He is not stupid, but something seems very different now than before. He used to make logical moves, for reasons we may agree with or not, but they were logical with the goals he set. There was method to his madness.This behavior now is different: illogical, emotional, suicidal - it may be his age, it may be (as has been hinted) a terminal disease.

As a result, he is extremely dangerous now for everybody. The sooner he undergoes defenestration, the better for everybody.

The Russian psyche is all about manly men hence the barechested horseback riding pics, the jumping into iceholes followed by a shot or 2 of vodka etc etc. However pre covid Putin used to be seen outside, meeting n greeting etc, since Covid he has shut himself off to all but those closest to him, has he gone mad? Quite possibly yes, is he ill, again quite possibly & this is his last shot at reforming the “Great Russian bear”.
Agreed it would be better for all if he went …. How that is achieved is a different matter ….assassination is a non starter imo (he’s hidden away for one & what you get to replace him may be worse), handing over the reigns (he’ll hand pick his successor & still have control to a degree). Consequently the only safe & sane way is polically ie. an election, is that likely ….no not really, he doesn’t want to lose power. So that takes you back to assassination which unless you find where he is & drop a bloody great bomb on him is unlikely & would be an act of war anyway.

 

[Xdama]

We're now a generation down the road and we have a generational split in political memes, both in the west and in the former USSR. It's different from country to country, but it's the same phenomenon. In another generation and it will just be something remembered by the very old and read about in history books as that weird time the grandparents lived through. It will be as inactive a political issue as women's suffrage is today. We will probably have some other big political meme to fight about. It might be the environment, or it might be something else.

And yet here we are a generation on and the majority boogiemen in spy films are protrayed as Russian (with *sugar* accents I may say). Consequently although I agree with what you say (younger generations look at other information sources), we “the West” don’t help Russian paranoia as we protray them as “the boogieman”. It doesn’t help at all tbh. Yes I know there’s a lot of films with other nationalities playing the bad guy too lol. It just makes it an easier “sell” for Putins media machine, if we portray them as the bad guys.

 

[Xdama]

I heard today that the US raised the DEFCON level in response to Putin's move.

There are some governments that have an elected president and an appointed prime minister. Ukraine is one of those. I can't find anything on the official chain of succession in Ukraine, but in most countries with that type of government the Prime Minister is #1 in the line of succession. The current PM is Denys Shmyhal, he was governor of a region of Ukraine before being elevated to PM. Since he was appointed by Zelensky I assume he will follow Zelensky's lead if Zelensky gets killed. I would also assume the PM is not in Kyiv, but it somewhere far away from the fighting.

One of Putin's worst nightmare is US troops permanently based in Eastern Europe. He's gone and triggered that. Poland is making noises about wanting the US to have a permanent presence there, same with other countries close to Russia. He thought he was increasing his buffer zone, instead he collapsed it.

As I wrote to my sister earlier this evening, this will almost certainly end with the end of Putin (at least in power) or it will end the world as a nuclear wasteland. I see no other path. To make a miscalculation this big makes it very hard for even an autocrat like Putin to stay in power.

He is acting out of character, like he's desperate to win something big. That he's trying to cement his legacy just before he dies is the best explanation.

US raising DEFCON is a normal response and not unexpected, may not be the right thing to do though, it only helps fuel his paranoia. Assuming all want a de-escalation of course.

Shmyhal …. you’re assuming Putin would allow democracy to stand. He wants control of all the gas / fossil fuel in the region, he’d effectively control the EU then (my opinion … not quantified). I’d say a puppet government is more likely Shmyhal will be on his hitlist along with any other western / democratic leaning persons.

Putin’s worst nightmare, yep agreed in all. However NATO fed that to him by talking with Ukraine about it becoming a member, the agreement with the fall of the USSR was NATO would NOT offer membership to countries bordering Russia (I’m led to believe again not substantiated). If that is the case then NATO should have rebuffed Ukraine outright to maintain the balance.

Agreed as to Putin’s end and cementing his legacy. Covid was the straw that broke the camels back in terms of his paranoia and greed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

MOEX may not open for stock trading today. The best way to prevent a crash is to stay closed!

Fabrizio Goria on Twitter: "RUSSIAN CENTRAL BANK ORDERS MARKET PLAYERS TO REJECT FOREIGN CLIENTS' BIDS TO SELL RUSSIAN SECURITIES FROM 0400 GMT ON FEB 28 — CENTRAL BANK DOCUMENT SEEN BY REUTERS" / Twitter

 

[CHGolferJim]

Rumor is that Putin is the Ural Mountains, that means he's probably in the secret nuclear bunker which is the former Soviet version of the US Cheyenne Mountain complex.

Kosvinsky Kamen - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

So is that more secure? What to make of rumor (reported by A. Vindman and others) that Gerasimov, the leader of the Armed Forces, has been sacked. Is that to scapegoat him for the early results, or reduce the threat to Putin?

 

[Artful Dodger]

however IF he got assassinated then there would be a power vacuum and who you get in charge next would be a gamble, it could be worse

No, it really couldn't. Putin is the worst actor in the Kremlin.

No matter how many tadpoles are hatched in the Spring, by end of Summer there's only one Salamader left in the pond.

Then the pond dries up.

 

[nativewolf]

No, it really couldn't. Putin is the worst actor in the Kremlin.

No matter how many tadpoles are hatched in the Spring, by end of Summer there's only one Salamader left in the pond.

Then the pond dries up.

A glorified criminal state

 

[Artful Dodger]

Mattia Nelles on Twitter: "Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations are underway. Just, look at the delegation #Ukraine https://t.co/4XBBUFSXdF" / Twitter (30 min ago)

Budmo!

 

[Xdama]

No, it really couldn't. Putin is the worst actor in the Kremlin.

No matter how many tadpoles are hatched in the Spring, by end of Summer there's only one Salamader left in the pond.

Then the pond dries up.

Fair enough but would you say Kim Jong-il or Kin Jong-un was more of a nut job? I’d say the latter personally, although figured he’d be the one to start a nuclear war not Russia (no matter who was in charge there).
Bear in mind too, Putin was never fromally elected in the first place, he was put in place by Yeltsin, when he had to stand down due to the 2 term constitution he had Medvedev installed for a term (who was his puppet anyway) before taking the throne again and declaring himself lifelong president & changing the constitution witha fixed vote. That fella isn’t giving up power easily, if he lives, it will be a puppet who’s installed with him at the strings.

Lukashenko is also a nut too who disappears any worthwhile opponent, he’s also a Putin puppet who could change the balance in Ukraine significantly. He will (imo) possibly allow Russian force to use his southern borders to open another front in the assault, If not joining in with the Belarus armed forces. If that happens then it’ll be game over for Ukraine they don’t have the military to combat that front as well.

 

[ZachF]

Ruble now worth less than a penny

 

[Xdama]

Mattia Nelles on Twitter: "Russian-Ukrainian Negotiations are underway. Just, look at the delegation #Ukraine https://t.co/4XBBUFSXdF" / Twitter (30 min ago)

Budmo!

Can’t say I’m confident of anything meaningful but let’s see. Maybe I’m just too cynical

 

[Xdama]

Ruble now worth less than a penny

That’s not going to hurt Putin or the ruling classes though, they’ll still be eating every meal time unlike the normal working family who’ll struggle to put food on the table.

 

[ZachF]

That’s not going to hurt Putin or the ruling classes though, they’ll still be eating every meal time unlike the normal working family who’ll struggle to put food on the table.

Oligarchs are certainly feeing the pain.

They’re going to have to decide if they like their current life of bikini models on yachts in the south of France or if they want to be first in line for beet rations in Putin’s new Russia.

 

[jbcarioca]

Apparently Germany has caved on kicking Putin off SWIFT.

Don't view this at face value. There are many ways major financial assets are still accessible to Putin and his loyalists.
This article carefully threads the needle:

Cyprus economic shock from Russian bombs - Financial Mirror

In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and sanctions could inflict wounds on the Cypriot economy, including trade, higher fuel prices and the key tourism sector where 22% are Russia and Ukraine visitors. This summer, hundreds of thousands of tourists were expected from the two...

www.financialmirror.com

The vast majority of Russia-origin funds held in Cypriot banks is held in Euros and/or US$. Further, the beneficiaries of those accounts are almost invariably Cyprus-registered businesses with complete Cypriot identity. Those accounts are unhampered. There are many other places with similar local identities from the UK, US, Israel, Italy, France and numerous other countries. Many, if not most, very wealthy Russians have obtained nationality in other countries and can travel freely .

Perhaps the most famous of those is Roman Abramovitch, owner fo the Chelsea Football Club who travels on his Israeli passport when the Russian one is inconvenient.

It is quite clear that many countries are carefully avoiding offending these people. FWIW, Donald Trump, Jr used to brag openly that they did not need other financing because they had so many Russian cash buyers. Even a cursory look at parts of South Florida, New York (check Brighton B:each :

Top 10 Secrets of Brighton Beach, Brooklyn - Untapped New York

Brighton Beach is referred to as "Little Odessa," although there are plenty of Georgian, Uzbek, Uyghur, and Turkish spots.

untappedcities.com

All of this is not necessarily nefarious. Many moderately wealthy people hold multiple citizenships without violating and laws anywhere and paying taxes due everywhere. Russia, for example, does not tax most foreign wealth and income when held in non-personal form. Few countries do tax such resources. Thus, finding the criminals in the midst of legitimate activity is difficult.

Some banks actively help the criminals. Hence Deutsche Bank has had gigantic fines multiple times for criminal violations. Most of that is public record including famous politicians from various countries including the US and Russia.

Nothing about this is easy to do. Nothing is so clearly black and white. The war of aggression is easier for Putin because he knows the underlying illegitimate side of all this. These criminals know just how to take advantage of a 'blind-eyed' private banking system, among other things.

Germany orders Deutsche Bank to do more to prevent money laundering

Under the leadership of CEO Christian Sewing, Deutsche Bank has been trying to turn a new leaf by restoring its reputation after a string of misdeeds.

www.cnbc.com

Deutsche Bank’s $10-Billion Scandal

How a scheme to help Russians secretly funnel money offshore unravelled.

www.newyorker.com

 

[Xdama]

Oligarchs are certainly feeing the pain.

They’re going to have to decide if they like their current life of bikini models on yachts in the south of France or if they want to be first in line for beet rations in Putin’s new Russia.

I haven’t seen any news of oligarchs queuing at the local food bank, pretty sure they can hold out for quite some time. If they want to get out of Russia and hire a yacht in the sun they’ll still be able to via the east or southern borders. Yes it may dent their lifestyle a bit but not as much as a mother who struggles to feed her kids each month …..every month. That is the reality for the majority of Russians, the one’s who have never had a holiday at all, let alone a foreign one.
I understand the reasoning for it all, however to hurt the rich the poor are going to suffer the most.

 

[jbcarioca]

Nobody in the West has any interest in invading Russia. Putin is simply paranoid and living in the past.

Hey, he's Russian. Russians have been acculturated for hundreds of years to expect intrigue, nefarious intent and treachery.
A naive Russian really does not exist very long.
'Being paranoid does not mean they're not out to get you.'

 

[samppa]

Finland did a gallup on joining NATO last week. Gallup ran from wednesday to friday.

53% want to join NATO! With 28% opposed, rest undecided.

This is huge, support for joining NATO has never been more than around 30%.

Also 66% said they would join NATO, if sweden also joins.

 

[SmokyPeat]

Hey, he's Russian. Russians have been acculturated for hundreds of years to expect intrigue, nefarious intent and treachery.
A naive Russian really does not exist very long.
'Being paranoid does not mean they're not out to get you.'

Good point. With the amount of nefarious intent and treachery that Putin has been doling out over the years, it stands to reason that he might expect some reciprocity. Super disappointing that Bolsonaro in Brazil is taking Putin's side in this idiotic and deadly debacle.

 

[jbcarioca]

Oligarchs are certainly feeing the pain.

They’re going to have to decide if they like their current life of bikini models on yachts in the south of France or if they want to be first in line for beet rations in Putin’s new Russia.

Not at all. Only the ones who have made themselves public figures have even a slight issue. They may have and probably do have serious new cash flow starkly reduced. That really does not hamper their lifestyle much at all, just makes them move full time to wherever they choose, depending on which passports they've acquired. Russians make contingency plans, that is what they do.

 

[jbcarioca]

Good point. With the amount of nefarious intent and treachery that Putin has been doling out over the years, it stands to reason that he might expect some repricosity. Super disappointing that Bolsonaro in Brazil is taking Putin's side in this idiotic and deadly debacle.

Ok, time to dust off the old factor that have long been positioned as conspiracies.

First, look at the Deutsche Bank history. That is instructive. It reads like fiction.
Second, look at campaign finance and social media. There are three themes linking the ultra right:
1. Cultilvation of ultra nationalist views, coupled with local flavors of ethnic resentment;
2. Social media driven by careful orchestration of increasing nationalist, religious, militaristic resentments;
3. Carefully planned incitement to challenge voting freedoms.
Third, note that all of that has Russian (i.e. Putin regime) technological and financial backing.

This all has been built for decades. beneficiaries have been politicians including Erdogan, Orban, Trump and Bolsonaro. A quick look shows current rulers of Syria, Belarus and several others ahem been directly installed this way.

The evidence of all that is irrefutable. The problem is that it all reads like improbable conspiracy, so many rational people cannot actually see what si happening. The key to understanding is seeing the social media extremist bases. Until social media they were mostly on the outer fringes. Now they are in power or strengthening. Look worldwide and see.

The risk, even to Tesla and SpaceX, is also real. None of these parties have any concern at all for the welfare of the Planet Earth.

I apologize if this sounds paranoid.