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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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The hits keep coming. 4 more HIMARS with rocket resupplies, 200 Mine-Resistant Ambush Protected (MRAP) vehicles, ammunition for Howitzers, and mines. These will come from existing inventory so will be delivered soon.

This is in addition to the 18 HIMARS and other goodies announced last week that have to be newly procured.

U.S. to send mobile rocket launchers to Ukraine in $625 mln aid package -officials
 
There is fog of war so it's hard to say what is happening or what will happen. But let's just start with what seems obv. In the early war Russia made lots of progress. Many people believed Russia was winning. Then things slowed down. Here people speculated both ways. Then things ground to a halt. People speculated both ways. Then Ukraine made some massive progress in the north and some minor in the south. More people speculated that Ukraine might win. Then Russia mobilized and now some people speculate Russia, but many still speculate that Ukraine is winning.

So will mobilization work? More soliders = won war?
Imo what we see now is Modern warfare from Ukraine. From Russia semi-modern warfare. So we can observe how modern warfare between two mostly modern countries is fought. And what we see is that modern trenches are hard to beat with manpower. What seems to be needed needed is lots of long range artillery/airforce to soften the trenches and then later you can blitz through them. And here Ukraine has slowly been increasing their capacity to soften trenches, and they are still increasing their ability with more artillery arriving and little being lost. Meanwhile Russia has been slowly decreasing their amount of cruise missile attacks, artillery attacks etc. Russia got a few new drones from Iran, but many of them get shot down by new anti drone technology given to Ukraine.

Generally it seems that Ukraine has the better equipment, mainly donated from the west. And the west has not really been tapped that much, mostly the west gives things they no longer need or were gonna scrap anyway. US has much better drones they could donate to even the balance more if they wanted. Not to speak of the air power that US has...

What would more Russian infantry do? Probably just shoot a little from the trenches, then be killed by drones, HIMARS and Howitzers. What Russia needs is more drones, more HIMARS etc. Can they build this if they just mobilize their industry? If you believe that communists/fascists war time economies can industrialize well then maybe. With current embargos it will be very tricky. Meanwhile the engineers are fleeing in full force, I am very skeptical that they can just make the country into a weapons industry powerhouse in a few months/years..

So for good and bad I think that Russia will lose the war, at least if it's fought conventionally. They will bleed their army 2-600 killed soldiers/day for a few more months, meanwhile Ukraine will gain a little territory. If Russia starts using nukes on Kiev etc maybe Ukraine will surrender, but the economic cost would be massive to Russia... If not then eventually Russians will get tired of dying and someone will take out Putin. But a lot more Russian will likely die before it gets to that point...

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Elon clarifies his view:

I knew Russia had lost the war on Feb 25. They badly failed in taking their initial objectives and the Ukrainian resolve was clear from the start. I also looked at the initial Russian force, it was too small to do a successful occupation of Ukraine.

Russia's only hope was for the Ukrainians to fold in the face of their "shock and awe" assault. When the Ukrainians pointed out the guy behind the curtain, they were doomed.

If the Russians had done this mobilization before the war and had given the new troops some training, they might have managed to overwhelm Ukraine, but now it's too little too late. Their experienced troops are sunflower food, their best equipment is now either destroyed or under new management. They are replacing those troops with untrained, unmotivated, low morale bumpkins with old equipment pulled out of storage that is largely less than fully functional.

The Russian missile attacks are dying down because they are running out of missiles and they don't have the means to replace them. The Iskanders were busy in the early stages of the war, but they ran out of them. Then they expended their entire stock of naval launched missiles, including anti-shipping missiles. They also fired most of their air launched missiles. The last missiles being fired were S-300 surface to air missiles repurposed for ground attack (huge waste of resources).

The Ukrainians have been using HARM missiles to take out the AA systems so the Russians are running low on S-300s now. I've read the Russians have been stripping their AA systems from all over Russia where they have then been destroyed by more HARM missiles.

The Russians are scraping the bottom of the barrel for equipment and personnel. They have little ability to make much to replace their losses.

Ukraine has access to almost unlimited resources of NATO and the US. They also are taking the time to train up their troops correctly. Ukraine now has a first rate, professional army in morale and training with a mix of first and second rate equipment. That's not going to degrade. If anything, they will just get better.

Like someone exposed to a lethal dose of radiation who is only beginning to get sick, Russia's army is dead, they just haven't accepted it yet.

I haven't been following this war closely, just to clarify: has any western leader stated clearly that they'll support a total Ukraine victory no matter what?

If I'm not mistaken only UK seems to be leaning towards this, even Biden is ambiguous wrt the level support US is willing to provide, France/Germany are pretty weak in their support so can't count on them much. If no western political leader is behind the total victory option, you can't really blame Elon Musk for proposing a compromise, even though you may disagree with it. Without full and unconditional support from the west, there's no way for Ukraine to win a total victory.

Biden is firmly behind Ukraine. There has been no hesitation to send gobs of support.

Knowing what he knows now, anyone think Putin would go again with the Feb 2022 invasion if he got a redo time machine?

He would probably opt out.
 
Biden is firmly behind Ukraine. There has been no hesitation to send gobs of support.
"behind Ukraine" is a rather vague position, Elon Musk is behind Ukraine too, as he pointed out SpaceX has provided significant aid to Ukraine out of their own pocket. Does Biden support Ukraine retaking Crimea? What kind of support is he willing to give to achieve this objective?

"no hesitation" is not accurate, there has been plenty of hesitation, this is just one example:

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see Putin getting his ass kicked, but from what I can see in order to do that Ukraine requires a lot more support in terms of heavy weapons, or even direct military assistance. If the west is not willing to provide the support needed to achieve the objective, prolonging the war is not advantageous to Ukraine.
 
After listening to this, I feel like Ukraine gave Crimea away to the Russians. You cannot allow a military based from a nation that has a different political system to be on your land. Imagine if the U.S allowed the Chinese to have a military base in Hawaii and even allowed the amount of military personal to accumulate into hundred of thousands. This is like border security 101 type stuff.
The people running Ukraine at the time (Yanukovich) basically worked directly for the KGB.

What Russia has already done in Crimea basically amounts to ethnic cleansing.

On the current military trajectory I think Ukraine will retake Crimea, along with everything else. Then stop.

On the current social trajectory I think Ukraine will do just fine reintegrating the areas that have been occupied, and do so in thoughtful ways.

In due course, if Ukraine is not granted membership of NATO, then Ukraine will develop indigenous nuclear weapons - this was essentially exactly what Poland said back in the 1990s, and ultimately this led to Poland joining NATO.
 
I'm less worried about Ukraine getting nuked to "win" the war than Putin just going "F IT" and taking the rest (or at least, the west) of the world with him, if he can't have what he wants. If he launches nukes, I would expect his targets to be NATO members and so forth (perhaps prefering further targets to minimize collatoral fallout if he gets lucky and the west fails to follow through with their half of MAD).
I'm replying here, because IMO it is time to move the discussion to this thread.

1. Putin can't simply launch nukes, especially nukes that would target NATO by himself, there is a process that must happen and several layers of approvals,
2. The US/NATO seem to have good intelligence and may know in advance when Russia was getting ready for a move like that.
3. IMO any nuclear war may go even worse for Russia than conventual war.

So apart from a hissy fit there is no logical reason to pursue this option, and it would in all probability end very badly for Russia.

I would hope that the US and NATO are preparing well, and monitoring Russia closely just in case.

For a tactical nuclear weapon it could do a lot of damage especially if the civilian population wasn't in nuclear proof bomb shelters.
But it would also trigger a response which is likely to be at a minimum, more weapons for Ukraine and more sanctions. And could lead to NATO destroying all Russian military assets at or near Ukraine. As well the fallout would in all probability blow back ono Russia.

Worse still the tactical nuke might lead to the big nuclear confrontation outlined above,

Maybe Russia can't win, but they could make everyone else pay a price, or maybe they just triple down on the price they pay.

Putin and Russia have been more or less threatening nukes from day 1, so far they haven't done it. It is still worth trying to everything possible to prevent that happening. So dialogue with Russia is always a good idea.

But if the only 2 options are letting Russia win, or Russia using nukes there are no good options. There is a 3rd option, Russia and Ukraine agreeing on a ceasefire and a peace deal. While that seems a long way off, it is best for both countries. That was what Elon was trying to say, but his comments strayed too close to "let Russia win".

We can't dictate what kind of deal Ukraine will accept. A tactical nuke aimed at Ukraine is the most likely desperate escalation and the Ukrainians know that.
 
I haven't been following this war closely, just to clarify: has any western leader stated clearly that they'll support a total Ukraine victory no matter what?

If I'm not mistaken only UK seems to be leaning towards this, even Biden is ambiguous wrt the level support US is willing to provide, France/Germany are pretty weak in their support so can't count on them much. If no western political leader is behind the total victory option, you can't really blame Elon Musk for proposing a compromise, even though you may disagree with it. Without full and unconditional support from the west, there's no way for Ukraine to win a total victory.
For clarification:

- all of NATO (excepting Hungary);
- all of EU (excepting Hungary);
- and some other West-aligned nations (most notably Australia, but also in other ways Japan and South Korea);

... are fully onboard with Ukraine being restored to its pre-2014 borders, and all are supporting in many and different ways as a team effort

There are many people running around pointing fingers at the efforts of different nations and wailing stuff. Some are doing this because they want to embarass X country to do more to help Ukraine. Some are doing this for internal political point-scoring. Some are doing this because they are Russian shills trying to sow division. Some are just useful idiots.

The ways are many and different for all sorts of reasons, some more valid than others.

It is not well understood exactly what is coming from each country, via which country, or paid for by which country. To an extent that does not matter because it is a team effort. Some countries are particularly reticent - as a for-eample the team effort includes keeping the West-aligned global energy system together for long enough to get off Russian supplies, and Japan and South Korea have both been supportive in shuffling LNG cargoes and floating LNG regasification terminals (and coal and oil) to enable more LNG to reach Europe, but this doesn't get 'talked-up' much. Another example is that French arms supplies are much higher than most reports indicate and they are in specific shortage categories, most notably early and sustained delivery of long range artillery and ammunition, but for all sorts of reasons the French don't big it up. And so on.

This stuff did not start in 2022. It started in a comprehensive fashion back in 2014 with the illegal Russian invasion of the Donbass and Crimea. Ever since then the collective West has been very heavily involved in making sure Ukraine was in a better position to resist as a society, a political entity, an economy, lawfully, and ultimately militarily. Specific examples are that the UN-GA voted through a resolution condemming the illegal annexation of Crimea (UN GA 68/262*) which is one of those 'forever' decisions that draw a clear line in the sand that miltary redrawing of borders cannot be justified. Other specific examples are that EU has replumbed its entire gas network since 2014 to enable it to flow backwards, from west to east, so as to be able to carry out the kind of emergency energy surge that is going on. Specifically Canada, UK, and USA have led on different aspects of military personnel training since 2014 with many of the results you see, and with many other smaller countries delivering specific training & equipment modules, e.g. in mine clearance, etc. Specifically EU and NATO have worked very closely together to bring revisions to laws onto the statute books of almost all EU nations so that military/defence equipment and personnel can flow easily without being held up for diplomatic clearance. Some of what you see now is more photogenic than others - so seeing Ukraine troops being trained by UK + Netherlands/etc instructors in Yorkshire is more photogenic than watching the inside of a French ammunition factory (where the cameras will never be allowed in), so one does not get a full picture from television news.

I could go on and on. Basically this is a steadfast effort put together over many years and by many people and by many nations, and it is holding together well and it is now delivering in full what was hoped would never be needed. Please note that this is just as importantly a EU effort as it is a NATO effort - this is not well understood. The kinetic battle will not be won unless the economic battle can be won; or for that matter the political and media battles. Over the last two decades NATO and EU have worked really hard to learn how to work together, and that effort is paying off.

For clarification the pre-2014 borders include the full return of Crimea + Luhansk + Donbass; and the full restoration of freedom of navigation through the Sea of Azov, the Kerch Strait, and the Black Sea; and the full return of various (frankly economically minor, but militarily significant**) offshore oil & gas fields and associated installations and islands.

I have absolute condemnation for some particular people in some particular countries that have repeatedly done their best to frustrate all this.

Above all else the people of Ukraine are delivering their end of the deal, and deserve all of our respect and all of our support.

I hope this answers your question.

* United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 - Simple English Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

** believe me, I know what I talk about in this area
 
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I'm replying here, because IMO it is time to move the discussion to this thread.

1. Putin can't simply launch nukes, especially nukes that would target NATO by himself, there is a process that must happen and several layers of approvals,
I find this surprising, seems like the kind of power he'd like to give himself, and who's going to stop him? If so, that's great news. Of course, this still runs into the potential shortcut of simply ensuring everyone involved is "motivated"/"educated" or gaslit into compliance with whatever he wants to do. If sane people are manning those launch controls though, and they aren't totally lied to (i.e., told an inbound strike has already launched, and they are retaliating), then the world should be fine...
 
I haven't been following this war closely, just to clarify: has any western leader stated clearly that they'll support a total Ukraine victory no matter what?

If I'm not mistaken only UK seems to be leaning towards this, even Biden is ambiguous wrt the level support US is willing to provide, France/Germany are pretty weak in their support so can't count on them much. If no western political leader is behind the total victory option, you can't really blame Elon Musk for proposing a compromise, even though you may disagree with it. Without full and unconditional support from the west, there's no way for Ukraine to win a total victory.
You are asking the wrong question. The flip question is which western leader has stated their support is conditioned on Ukraine giving up part of their territory as a compromise? There is no need to specify "total victory" because ultimately it is up to Ukraine to decide at which point they feel they should end their offensive retaking territory. This shouldn't be up to foreign countries to decide (and Elon poking his nose into things at this point was likely poorly received for this same reason). Even after "victory," western support for Ukraine is unlikely to end, given there will be a rebuilding period and the need to ensure Ukraine can continue to defend themselves.

I can only speak to the US, as I'm in it (I will let others actually from Europe chime in on their perspective on Europe, etc). In the meantime, there is no indication the US is ending their support. Officially US has stated their support is unwavering:
U.S. Security Cooperation with Ukraine - United States Department of State
Behind the scenes, the condition for supply of weapons is that they aren't used to hit Russian soil (this was discussed previously up thread; with detail being counter battery fire probably is still allowed). Note article below was written before Russian mobilization and the recent gains by Ukraine:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/17/us/politics/ukraine-biden-weapons.html
That policy does not conflict with "total victory," especially given how the battlefield conditions have changed with rapid advance of the Ukrainian army in recent days. The current strength of support seems to be enough to lead to Ukraine eventually taking back all their territory.

The whole idea of "compromise" sounds a lot like the whole lead up to the invasion, where the thought was there would be a way to "negotiate" and give in to some of the demands of Putin in exchange for peace. That obviously did not work out.
 
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I find this surprising, seems like the kind of power he'd like to give himself, and who's going to stop him? If so, that's great news.
Apparently the US leadership is considering the worst case scenario which is that no one stops him.

But I do remember reading that in Russia several people need to give approval for a nuclear attack and there is a formal process. Not surprising, because a leader could go mad.

In theory, there are laws, rules and procedures which operate in Russia.

So we can't rely on a good outcome, but that doesn't mean a bad outcome is a certainty.

I think the source of the information about the Russian process to approve a nuclear attack was on Twitter, but I can't find it.
 
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I find this surprising, seems like the kind of power he'd like to give himself, and who's going to stop him? If so, that's great news. Of course, this still runs into the potential shortcut of simply ensuring everyone involved is "motivated"/"educated" or gaslit into compliance with whatever he wants to do. If sane people are manning those launch controls though, and they aren't totally lied to (i.e., told an inbound strike has already launched, and they are retaliating), then the world should be fine...
Even (especially) during the Cold War the Soviets went to great lengths to ensure that their nuclear weapons were under tight political control, not military control. Western control norms were progressively introduced into the Russian system*. Specifically the current Russian nuclear release authorisation has to be electronically verified by two (of three) independent signatures/keys. These are the electronic nuclear footballs that you see carried around near the MinDef, the Pres, and one other. Similarly at certain alertt states all three disperse to different locations onboard some specific command & control aircraft that generaly route to some well separated bunker facilities. This dispersal happened back at the beginning of the Russian invasion several months ago, just in case the West launched a nuclear strike as a response.

So from a technical perspective the Russians do have 2:3 distributed control and the corresponding systems that flow from that. (I assume conservatively that it works technically and cannot be frustrated).

The problem is that the individuals in those senior political positions are Putin placemen. Therefore it is not clear to what extent they are in practice able to resist a launch instruction if he were to issue one. He has now put in place the sham legal pretence of a doctrinal justification (i.e. critical threat to Russian territory & state) so that justification for refusing a launch has gone. Ultimately this aspect is unknowable.

(We had similar concerns with the US under Trump).

* Actually the Western control norms are not homogenous and have varied over the years, for example the French and the UK did 'control' things very differently than the US at times.
 
"behind Ukraine" is a rather vague position, Elon Musk is behind Ukraine too, as he pointed out SpaceX has provided significant aid to Ukraine out of their own pocket. Does Biden support Ukraine retaking Crimea? What kind of support is he willing to give to achieve this objective?

"no hesitation" is not accurate, there has been plenty of hesitation, this is just one example:

Don't get me wrong, I'd like to see Putin getting his ass kicked, but from what I can see in order to do that Ukraine requires a lot more support in terms of heavy weapons, or even direct military assistance. If the west is not willing to provide the support needed to achieve the objective, prolonging the war is not advantageous to Ukraine.

In the early days I smelled some threats coming from Russia if some specific support was given to Ukraine like the MiGs. That smelled of something going on behind the scenes. I also suspect those MiGs were sent to Ukraine when the media sh** storm calmed down.

Among the threats Russia could have made, that would have been hard for Europe in the early going was to shut down all oil and gas delivery to Europe. It's way down now, but Europe has found other sources so the hit is a lot less severe. It would have been a big hit for Europe in March or April to lose all their Russian oil and gas.

For the US and Biden supporting Ukraine has not just been a long term commitment as @petit_bateau pointed out above, but it's also a no brainer. The cost of this war for the US is loose change lost in the sofa cushions. Politically it's one of the few things the two parties can mostly agree on. There are wing nuts on both extremes who don't like the war because they are pacifists or in Putin's pocket, but the bulk of the American political class is behind the war, as are most of the American people.

This war fits US memes about war perfectly. In a lot of cases it's been trotted out for causes that really weren't what they said they were like Iraq or Vietnam. US war rhetoric always go on about fighting for freedom and self determination, freedom from tyranny, etc. In reality the last time the US fought a war that really had a threat to the US was the War of 1812. Even in the world wars US markets overseas may have been disrupted and things could have gone very badly for countries we are friendly with, but nobody had the ability to seriously threaten US territory. Yes Japan captured two islands at the end of the Aleutian chain as well as Guam, but those were territories and those never posed a threat to the US proper.

But here we have a country who is determined to be free from tyranny, foreign control, and has been victim of an unprovoked attack. It fits US war memes perfectly.

For the US, spending some pocket change and sending some spare military hardware has the potential for huge payoffs down the road. For one Europe hasn't been as dependent on the US in decades, all this military spending is big business for the defense sector, and the US has a golden opportunity to take down Russia for good. If Russia doesn't fall apart, it's going to be drastically weakened by this war. Additionally the US gets to be the world's good guy in all this. Compared to Russian imperialism American imperialism isn't looking so bad.

Gasoline/petrol prices in the US have been high, but the US is not dealing with the across the board energy problems plaguing Europe. The US is going to come out of this war in better shape than anyone.

The political cost and economic cost for supporting Ukraine is minimal for Biden and while it definitely helps Ukraine, it could help the US down the road too. Helping Ukraine is a no brainer for any sane US president.

On another note, Politico is raising some economic flags about the damage Putin is doing to the Russian economy with the mobilization. This explains what I've been trying to articulate
Putin’s mobilization will further upend the Russian economy
 
There are wing nuts on both extremes who don't like the war because they are pacifists or in Putin's pocket, but the bulk of the American political class is behind the war, as are most of the American people.

I propose that the true wing nuts are those who do like this, or any war. I 100% support Ukraine's right to self defense of it's people and territorial integrity, but war sucks. Always.
 
You hate people who doesn't agree with your political stance?
It's not politics...it's life and death and the pursuit of happiness. It is the very embodiment of "peace in our time" failure in appeasement. Central Europeans have had peace sold out on them for a few centuries and have suffered accordingly. It's why early on UKR did not even trust the USA and would not discuss strategy in detail. Of course hate, real hate, will be displayed by those that have morals and values and who have died for them when confronted by talk of appeasement. Russia/putin is hell bent on destroying the very concept of Ukraine because without Ukraine in the sphere of influence russia can't be a superpower. Russia could have kept Ukraine in a sphere of influence by softpower, trade, exchange of ideas/people, etc. It's not the russian way and they look down on others with quite a bit of contempt. In short russia is culturally incapable of exerting softpower in a collaborative and trust building manner.
 
I see that the discussion about Elon’s behavior on Twitter has been banned from the main investor’s thread and moved to this one. I respect the moderators decision and adhere to it but I have to say that I find it disappointing. The fact that the CEO of the company we have invested our money in is seemingly supporting Russia’s endeavors in Ukraine (he hasn’t rectified his tweets yet, or given detailed explanations, so it is still endorsing in my book) is hugely material to the company’s perception and future outlook. A negative perception of the CEO by the world’s customers will result in reduced revenue.

Can you imagine if Tim Cook tweeted this, the *sugar* storm that would follow would be out of this world.

I don’t have to remind anyone here that Tesla is not solely Elon’s, but the majority of shares is owned by millions of retail shareholders like us and other stakeholders like institutional funds. We have given Tesla money, Elon got to follow his entrepreneurial dreams, and has been more than sufficiently awarded for it by becoming the richest man in the world. He owes us, investors in his company, we don’t owe him, and the least he can do is not hurt the companies image for millions to see.

In my opinion the Board of Directors has been too invisible during issues like this (and there have been many in the past). One of their main roles is to protect shareholder’s interests. Them being invisible in their actions doesn’t mean they are not standing up for us behind closed doors, but they could be doing their job better by being more transparent.
 
Now Davydiv Brid retaken. The significance is that the line Davydiv Brid - Mylove is the NW-SE end of the third line of prepared (fallback) defences that the Russians had prepared on this side of the Dnieper as they headed upstream earlier in the year, after making it across the Nova Khakova dam. This means that the Ukraine forces are getting behind the last of the main defence lines as they push towards the dam. That dam of course is vital to, and near to, the water offtake canal for Crimea amongst other things.

1664883966293.png


 
No, it is an Elon bitching-fest. Or shall we fill up the thread with complaints about Helltok and his stance, and then move on to personal complaints about other posters ?

I'm not following your point. The MOD was clear that comments focusing on the War in Ukraine or Geopolitics in general should go here. Or perhaps you think they don't belong here either?