Russia/Ukraine conflict

[Dangerous Fish]

That was no truck bomb, that's for sure. What is sure is that it's a very significant event.

I have heard hints of something else significant about to happen in the south. I suspect this is part of that.

Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578628414197485569

 

[Artful Dodger]

Both videos of interest from Twitter (1:31 total), but in an easier to view embedded Youtube video:

Crimea bridge is blown up in explosion as Russia blames 'truck bomb' attack | The Sun

 

[UkNorthampton]

Speculation: Next advance / artillery domination? 37 km, but I have no idea about the terrain or defences. I would hope Russian Federation has thinned out quantity/quality in this region as a desperate measure to help elsewhere.

I've heard rumours of Ukrainian reserves, newly trained/equipped in the west and some people wondering if they are available for another front.

The white lines are rail (I believe). In any case, if cut, then only roads left and Ukraine can threaten towards Melitopol or the coast - hitting/capturing warehouses, airfields and cutting off Russian Federation forces in Kherson, Crimea etc. These Russian Federation forces will grow weaker over time/winter and can be dealt with at leisure as they will have little to no ability to attack and probably have little winter survival equipment. Alternatively, Ukraine could capture large parts whenever their intelligence suggests success.

Ukraine has shorter internal lines for logistics to move men and material. Mobile northern/eastern units may transfer & join in, some of their infantry could remain and secure recent gains beyond Kupiansk & Lyman, but beyond having an eastern mobile reserve, there may be very large mobile forces there now, enough to spare in the south, especially after so many Russian vehicles have been captured. Ukraine can move the most serviceable vehicles south and improve a mobile reserve in the east from captured vehicles over time. Fixing them is training for new Ukrainian tank/recovery crews.

Northern/eastern Ukrainian forces presumably have good experience, leadership, morale but might need rest & refit. They could be used as a second wave if new troops are available to do the initial breakthrough. Infantry/artillery heavy breakthrough, mobile forces for rapid exploitation. It seems that so much Russian artillery ammo has been captured that the Soviet era guns can be used heavily, this vastly improves some aspects of Ukrainian artillery - volume, but not accuracy. Artillery and air domination should be morale-breaking for poorly led, trained and supplied Russian federation forces, especially if Russian officers have left and only ethnic-minority troops remain.

Whatever happens, I think the Kerch bridge attack will be part of a larger plan which will develop rapidly. You never know how long the target might be affected. You can count on hours, days. Weeks might be pushing it. Until you assess the damage and Russian Federation's repair abilities, you must be ready to decide and quickly execute on the next move. The Ukrainians probably have a number of plans for each scenario, including further attacks on repair efforts.

Stunning possibilities, but my speculation only and no secret as anyone else could consider multiple plans with great chances of success.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

This is a longer version of the video above. I don't think that's a boat/sub appearing under the bridge. That section didn't suffer the worst damage and there are waves coming from there after which look the same as just before the detonation.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/xyldfh

I'm not saying is wasn't a boat/sub as it looks like it was under the section of road which disappeared rather than on/over it.
The truck story is nonsense. There's a lampost still standing which would have been a few metres away from the truck seen in the video. The lack of blast damage at that height points towards the seat of the explosion being lower.

 

[trayloader]

Regarding the train: in the centreline roadway video we can see that the train is stationary, not even slowly moving. In the long distance shots we can see that the now-burning train has no locomotive attached. My best guesses is that i) less likely, they are short of locos and parked the tank train there overnight as it ought to be a SAM-protected area, or 2) more likely, the train was waiting at signals to proceed, but that the loco driver then sensibly got him/herself out of there.

Regarding the source of explosion : either explosives placed on the piers or one+ of those fancy boats. Given the size of the blast(s) I tend towards the boat(s). Something like that can carry a tonne or so of explosive and with the right sort of charge shaping the effect would be upwards. The sensor set on the boats washed ashore includes some things that would enable the necessary precise positioning. That in turn tends to suggest a Ukraine job, rather than an internal faction within Russia. I am also tending towards just one device with the multiple spans being dropped just being shockwave effects, that would account for the clean road-deck end in one of the stills.The damage to the adjacent road carriageway deck was happenstance imho. Whether they always park tanktrucks at that point overnight is something I am sure intel would have been aware of, and might have played a part in precise target selection, who knows. Nice coincidence mind you

Couldn´t it be simply the truck that just passed? A simple 40tonner might be much more effective than a van?

 

[Artful Dodger]

This is a longer version of the video above. I don't think that's a boat/sub appearing under the bridge. That section didn't suffer the worst damage and there are waves coming from there after which look the same as just before the detonation.

A shaped charge directed up with a kinetic delivery system wouldn't leave a large signature near water level. The force of the blast energy would be directed upward through the target. Even the delivery vehicle may have been able to egress, leaving no telltales behind. Nicely designed attack.

 

[traxila]

Himars Transform the Battle for Ukraine—and Modern Warfare

The mobile, high-precision U.S. rocket system is thwarting Russia’s invasion as it revolutionizes military strategy.

www.wsj.com

Have not been able to read everything so I apologize if posted, but this article clarified the Ukrainian successes for me. Should be accessible through paywall on link above.

““The precision revolution changes everything,” said Gen. Scales, who considers the transformation to be the kind of epoch-making military shift that redefines warfare and will now tip battlefield advantage from massed armies to small infantry units.

Such shifts were rare in the past, including the eclipse of infantry by horse-mounted warriors around the fourth century and the introduction of gunpowder to Europe a millennium later, said Gen. Scales, a military historian who served as commandant of the U.S. Army War College.”

 

[nativewolf]

Yep, lots of ways to take a bridge out. Nicely coordinated too, mud season is here. One last rail link, forces in N & S have pulled all resources out of the center. Everyone sees it of course, the "third front". If there is to be one I'd give it 6 weeks. In the meantime UKR forces have regrouped in the N and Svatove front should wake up in a few days, they need to wrap that up to move on to Strabolisk (spelling?) to cut that hard surface and the key key GLOC there (its why Lapin had his HQ there) . In Kherson the rains dramatically reduced the speed of the UKR attack last week. Control of hard roads is so important. So many roads are simply gravel or dirt, very few hard surface roads. It's why Svatove in the N is so important, hard to flank in Luhansk without that point of control.

Now FSB has to have guards on the bridge at all times. Next attack could be himars . wartranslated.com has had some interesting translations this morning.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Here are a couple of the better images going around I've enhanced a bit to show more detail.

 

[madodel]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578636142055870464

Glad Putler got his birthday celebration after all.

Supply wise Russians were in deep doodoo to begin with. This can't help even if they are able to repair it in a few days. Also who is dumb enough to park a rolling bomb on a bridge they desperately need to keep from being destroyed? It seems like at least some Russians want this "special operation" over ASAP.

 

[heltok]

Anecdote. When I was in school we were roleplaying UN, my group was chosen to represent Russia. As a part of the preparation for the play we had to go interview the head of the Russian consulate, who was rumoured to be an ex KGB agent. This was during the Chechnyan war. We asked him something like if UN should help Russia with the war. He lowered his voice and answered very determined "If we cannot handle Chechnya ourselves, we don't deserve our own land".

Maybe this is not totally unlike Putin. He thinks Russia should be able to defeat Ukraine, if there is no option of failure, if they fail they don't deserve Russia. He is totally willing to sacrifice Russia rather than fail at something they should be able to do.

 

[nativewolf]

Speculation: Next advance / artillery domination? 37 km, but I have no idea about the terrain or defences. I would hope Russian Federation has thinned out quantity/quality in this region as a desperate measure to help elsewhere.

I've heard rumours of Ukrainian reserves, newly trained/equipped in the west and some people wondering if they are available for another front.

The white lines are rail (I believe). In any case, if cut, then only roads left and Ukraine can threaten towards Melitopol or the coast - hitting/capturing warehouses, airfields and cutting off Russian Federation forces in Kherson, Crimea etc. These Russian Federation forces will grow weaker over time/winter and can be dealt with at leisure as they will have little to no ability to attack and probably have little winter survival equipment. Alternatively, Ukraine could capture large parts whenever their intelligence suggests success.

Ukraine has shorter internal lines for logistics to move men and material. Mobile northern/eastern units may transfer & join in, some of their infantry could remain and secure recent gains beyond Kupiansk & Lyman, but beyond having an eastern mobile reserve, there may be very large mobile forces there now, enough to spare in the south, especially after so many Russian vehicles have been captured. Ukraine can move the most serviceable vehicles south and improve a mobile reserve in the east from captured vehicles over time. Fixing them is training for new Ukrainian tank/recovery crews.

Northern/eastern Ukrainian forces presumably have good experience, leadership, morale but might need rest & refit. They could be used as a second wave if new troops are available to do the initial breakthrough. Infantry/artillery heavy breakthrough, mobile forces for rapid exploitation. It seems that so much Russian artillery ammo has been captured that the Soviet era guns can be used heavily, this vastly improves some aspects of Ukrainian artillery - volume, but not accuracy. Artillery and air domination should be morale-breaking for poorly led, trained and supplied Russian federation forces, especially if Russian officers have left and only ethnic-minority troops remain.

Whatever happens, I think the Kerch bridge attack will be part of a larger plan which will develop rapidly. You never know how long the target might be affected. You can count on hours, days. Weeks might be pushing it. Until you assess the damage and Russian Federation's repair abilities, you must be ready to decide and quickly execute on the next move. The Ukrainians probably have a number of plans for each scenario, including further attacks on repair efforts.

Stunning possibilities, but my speculation only and no secret as anyone else could consider multiple plans with great chances of success.

No doubt that every 3rd front attack speculation over the last month has been seen and considered; based on the work they've done reinforcing the GLOC along the Sea of Azov russia believe it too- if it happens it surprises no one. Clearly this bridge attack is going to be supportive of the larger initiative just as the attacks earlier this summer on Crimea. The Crimea attacks demoralized russians. They also took out quite a few military targets and forced russia to heavily reinforce positions far far from the front so that the air defense assets were spread thing which then allowed more effective attacks in Kherson province which made that counter attack seem a true focus so they reinforced again and then UKR attacked from the North and with the exterior lines of support and logistics issues russia could not reinforce Izium or even Lyam. Then everyone screams that the south was a feint.
So they rush more assets, including scarce air power, north where it is futile as they can't concentrate enough force anywhere for defense or attack. So then UKR attacks the south again. That stalled out as they don't have off road ability to mechanize infantry (mud sesaon) so they move 40km and re group just as was seen in the north. Now the bridge is cut. So what now...more sustained attacks on Crimea and get russia to rush defenses south? Do they pull out of Kherson? I am sure UKR is waiting to see the response and they've war gamed every conceivable possibility and will adjust the next round of attacks based on these war games.

Generals in the Pentagon...heck all over NATO must be having wet dreams (sorry to be so crude) . The irony here is that russia power structure has proven to be a horrible vile entity and the fight against it worthy of the effort. 75 years of preparation and it unfolds and lo and behold...the organization and training proved true.


Very impressive combination of strategy and tactic.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Ukraine's Post Office released a new stamp:

 

[Artful Dodger]

Next attack could be himars .

Harpoonski. This UK military analyst says that was no 'truck bomb'. Either a missle or Special Forces:

Ukraine: 'Special forces operation' may be behind Crimea bridge blast | Sky News

 

[mongo]

Watching this in frame by frame, after the initial flash you can see the lamp posts get destroyed with fragments going toward the road as a shockwave expands toward the camera :24-:25. Seems like possibly an air burst explosion.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578638952885784576

 

[JRP3]

It appears to me that only one lane of the bridge was destroyed, the other still looks passable.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Watching this in frame by frame, after the initial flash you can see the lamp posts get destroyed with fragments going toward the road as a shockwave expands toward the camera :24-:25. Seems like possibly an air burst explosion.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1578638952885784576

Not sure what you're referring to, but what is clear from that video is that the train is moving on the rail track. Slowly, but moving (away from us, top left of frame). In the still I posted above, you can see the loco still attached.
Looks like a perfectly timed detonation to ensure the rail line was put out of action as well as the road. Shame the other side of the road bridge didn't collapse as well, but for a first go I'd say it was quite successful.
Now we wait for repairs and then just as they are nearing completion it'll be a good time to have another go.

 

[mongo]

It appears to me that only one lane of the bridge was destroyed, the other still looks passable.

Well, it's there, but I'm not sure of load capacity.

 

[mongo]

Not sure what you're referring to, but what is clear from that video is that the train is moving on the rail track. Slowly, but moving (away from us, top left of frame). In the still I posted above, you can see the loco still attached.
Looks like a perfectly timed detonation to ensure the rail line was put out of action as well as the road. Shame the other side of the road bridge didn't collapse as well, but for a first go I'd say it was quite successful.
Now we wait for repairs and then just as they are nearing completion it'll be a good time to have another go.

Frame by frame:

 

[trayloader]

We are witnessing two if not three explosions. The other camera showed a second one IMHO under the bridge having the character of a gigantic welding torch. Nice birthday present to the lonely psycho.


The impetus came from under the right bridge IMHO, as once could clearly see the bend road surface on the right in front of the truck (marked). On the left the surface is already lifted up so high that the flames begin to shoot out from under the tarmac to the left. So either something from the sea or a rocket. The Russian explanation (and my first speculation) of a truck was false. Also because on the remainders of the right destroyed surface hangin into the sea there´s only little sooted debris.