Fair points in this assessment from Ryan.
en.rattibha.com
Overall a good article, but they missed the fact that several countries are increasing ammunition production to help Ukraine. The Czech Republic has already had a dramatic increase with more coming next year. When Eastern Europe broke away from the USSR and the cold war ended a lot of countries repurposed their munitions factories or tore them down. The main arms maker in the Czech Republic mothballed their production facilities instead. This year has been a process of dusting off the equipment and getting back into business. Their arms plants make Russian calibers, which the Ukrainians need too. The Ukrainians have more 152mm tubes than 155mm.
Perun made the point in his most recent video that all the talk is about American production capacity and all about 155mm artillery shells. Lots of countries make 155mm artillery shells. He points out that Australia expanded production just before the war in Ukraine began. Spain has a large manufacturer of shells which had a fair bit of unused capacity at the beginning of the war. South Korea makes huge numbers of 155mm shells, though politically they don't want to give shells directly to Ukraine, they could send ammunition to their allies so they can send their ammunition to Ukraine. There are several factories in Eastern Europe that can make Russian calibers of ammunition and most were running at less than full capacity when the war began. A lot have already spun up production.
Ultimately the supply problem for weapons the Ukrainians already have is more political than physical. The ammunition they need is out there and there is even enough production capacity to come pretty close to their stated needs. It's just a question of whether those countries want to see their weapons appear on the Ukrainian battlefields.
For weapons Ukraine wants, but haven't been provided like western aircraft and western tanks, the problems are probably at least partially real world problems. Providing a vehicle that is essentially a western truck with some features added is fairly easy to maintain, but western aircraft and tanks are complex beasts that require a lot of training to maintain. It is possible that mechanics are being quietly trained now. If so we may see these western weapons fairly soon.
On the other hand these more sophisticated weapons may not be appearing in Ukraine because somebody like China has threatened to step up help for Russia if these weapons are provided. If China decided to turn on the aid spigot to Russia to the same degree the US has done for Ukraine, Russia will be significantly boosted in their battlefield capabilities. Starving Russia of Chinese military aid is probably worth more than a few western tanks to the Ukrainians.
And whilst I don't always agree with Aboulafia either, the underlying point he is making here is that China is at a very important crossroads where it may get a chance to rethink its recent pathway. Going all-in on the anti-West new Cold War path is looking a lot less attractive after the passage of 2022. And China is beginning to realise that the West is more cohesive in the ongoing conscious decoupling than they had bargained for. At least whilst Biden is in the White House, all bets are off if the US elects a Trumpist again.
I'm sure China is re calibrating their chances of taking Taiwan.
Dear Fellow Retired China Travelers, The saddest nostalgia is for futures that didn’t happen. For […]
richardaboulafia.com
Does Xi Jinping really fell that lucky. We'll see. Probably in about another million deaths.
Despite public bullishness, overflowing hospitals across the country suggest its leader may have made a huge miscalculation
www.theguardian.com
It's possible we're entering another era of big governmental changes around the world. Iran is definitely getting wobbly, China may get more unstable, and Russia could go pear shaped with enough battlefield losses. I've had a feeling for sometime that China's experiment with communist-capitalism could fall apart. The deal between the communist party and the people is that the people will be allowed to get wealthy if the communists could stay in power and make all the top level decisions. When China had strong steady growth, it worked. But that was showing signs of weakening before the pandemic.
To keep the illusion of progress they built entire cities with nobody living in them. The one child policy did curb their population growth, but put a restriction in the next generation who someday will have to pay for their parents' generation's retirement. With a small cadre having to pay for a large cadre to retire, the smaller cadre has to be taxed pretty steeply, or the older generation just has to be left to starve. China does have a lot of financial reserves they can tap, but it's not enough to pay for the retirement of the older generation without raising taxes.
China's growth is also slowing. There are limits to all rapid growth and the curve will inevitably flatten out eventually. Since the pandemic the prospect sofr future growth have diminished even more. The world is still buying from China because they currently don't have any choice, but a lot of countries came to the stark realization they had become too dependent on China before the pandemic and there is a move in a lot of countries to move production back home, or to more reliable partners.
When people see their fortunes reverse, they are going to get upset with the government. The COVID protests are the tip of a larger iceberg of discontent in the Chinese population. And that discontent is going to grow in the coming years as countries shift to other sources for their goods.
