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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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and the US should torture people to get information if we are attacked.........

Never abandon your values for convenience. Support Ukraine to defend their territory. Russia will sort itself out on its own. The Ukrainians decide who leads Ukraine and Russians decide who leads Russia. Targeting leaders leads to Lord of the Flies which is exactly where people like Putin live.
 
Good work in Belarus getting that A50 Mainstay AWACS. Russia doesn't have many of those, and they are definitely high value targets.


Personally I expect (and also hope) that in the event of a successful Ukraine outcome, then there will be a revolution in Belarus and the opposition will get back the election that was stolen from them. It is notable that the Belarus opposition seems to have been in on this and are teamed with Ukraine. Also in that outcome I expect Transnistria to get tidied away PDQ and Moldova to escape Russian clutches. (Georgia is more difficult, that will tend more on events within Russia).

That was a significant strike. It took out a valuable asset Russia can't replace very easily.

I suspect if Russia's ability to project power into Belarus weakens enough, Belarus will toss Lukashenko and get very friendly with the west.


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Mackay is (was) plain wrong. The energy numbers for Europe are easier than the energy numbers for USA. Transformation is possible, and is happening in both areas and in fact globally. The key issue is the economics. Mackay doesn't (didn't) understand the sheer ongoing cost of getting fossils out the ground, i.e. the transition can be paid for; or that renewables are getting progressively better and cheaper. The data on this is already clear - that was why I bothered to run the numbers in my own global energy model during the last week or so.

I do agree that oil is getting more expensive to develop. Once upon a time the US had fields like Saudi Arabia which were under so much pressure that they produced the classic gusher if something like a christmas tree to prevent blowouts wasn't on the well. Not all American oil was that easy to produce, but most was pretty cheap to both produce and refine.

All the cheap oil is gone and it costs more and more to both bring a new field online and to refine the oil from it. Refining heavy oil is more energy intensive too, so it consumes energy.

Climate risks aside, I've thought that the argument for moving away from oil as fast as is feasible is a good idea that we should have been pursuing for economic reasons.

If we can achieve a 100% renewable world, it is a huge industrial challenge to get there. A lot of equipment has to be built to capture and store that energy.

I saw where you posted some graphs and data in another thread, but I didn't have the time to fully digest it.


Actually WW1 was the first energy (and steel) war. The Germans almost managed to get the Franco-Belgian coal fields, and if they'd done that it would have been game over. If you look in some of the WW1 photos you can see pictures of the pit draworks literally on the front lines and still operating.

Though coal was already going out of style by then. Navies were converting to oil before the war and in the US the coal industry started it's long, slow decline around 1920. Capturing coal fields in WW I would be similar to capturing oil fields in 2030 or 2035. It's a resource that was once valuable, but is heading towards obsolescence.

Sweden has been umming and ahing about what to do with its early model Gripen A/B (and C/D) now that Sweden has transitioned to late model Gripen E/F. I think there are somewhere between 20-60 aircraft that are in the pool of 'available' at the C/D state and which could be leased/gifted/sold.


A lot of countries are afraid to be the first to give Ukraine western fighters.

Croatia is finding its compass now points more firmly to the West: Croatia plans to transfer 14 Mi-8 and Mi-17 helicopters to Ukraine within the next month,


For those with an interest in JDAM-ER, noting that it will need to be low level releases.


This is a significant weapon for Ukraine.

It looks like the Ukrainians counterattacked to the north in Bakhmut cutting into the salient the Russians created and some Russians are at risk for getting surrounded.
 
We can hope it will be for the better. But my only interest is to defang their military predations. I am not their keeper for a host of good reasons, including those you mention.
Agreed and I agree with Austin when he says we want Russia to degrade itself to the point where it can no longer threaten its neighbors. I'm just mindful from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq that the US' judgement on how other countries should be run is not really sound.
 
and the US should torture people to get information if we are attacked.........

Never abandon your values for convenience. Support Ukraine to defend their territory. Russia will sort itself out on its own. The Ukrainians decide who leads Ukraine and Russians decide who leads Russia. Targeting leaders leads to Lord of the Flies which is exactly where people like Putin live.
What has torture to do with getting rid of an evil murderous dictator? Putin is the one murdering civilians for no reason other than breaking that nation's will to resist his invasion. This will not be over until Putin is dead.
 
Agreed and I agree with Austin when he says we want Russia to degrade itself to the point where it can no longer threaten its neighbors. I'm just mindful from Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq that the US' judgement on how other countries should be run is not really sound.
A terrorist with a suitcase of explosives could threaten Russia's neighbours. How long to degrade the 11th largest economy in the world where they can't do that?
 
Devil's advocate, but it is a valid point that needs to be considered, given how slow many western powers have been to back up their rhetoric with actual arms.

At times like these, I find it's helpful to recall the words of Winston Churchill some Irishman the Harvard Business School Bulletin (in 1980):

The United States can always be relied upon to do the right thing — having first exhausted all possible alternatives.”​

Americans Will Always Do the Right Thing — After Exhausting All the Alternatives – Quote Investigator®

Cheers!
 
Aplogies if these have been posted before:


 
I not hearing much about the use of the Switchblades in Ukraine. Initially they seemed as if they could be a definite gamechanger of sorts on the battlefield.
I see numerous youtube vids of successful use of DJI Mavics and consumer drones dropping grenades on Russian heads, but nothing much about Switchblades. Anyone see anything different?
 
I not hearing much about the use of the Switchblades in Ukraine. Initially they seemed as if they could be a definite gamechanger of sorts on the battlefield.
I see numerous youtube vids of successful use of DJI Mavics and consumer drones dropping grenades on Russian heads, but nothing much about Switchblades. Anyone see anything different?
Sometimes when tools of war are very effective, their use is not advertised. I'm not saying this is the case, just a possibility.
 
What has torture to do with getting rid of an evil murderous dictator? Putin is the one murdering civilians for no reason other than breaking that nation's will to resist his invasion. This will not be over until Putin is dead.
I am not questioning the evil murderous dictator assessment. It will likely require his death to end the war. If he meets his end by the hands of those in Russia or by the hands of those from the country he invaded that is one thing. If you were suggesting another nation take out the head of Russia, that is another. If you were suggesting the US do it, then it is akin to setting aside your moral compass and, like torturing people (which we did), it would be wrong and counter productive. Perhaps I read something into your post that was not there.
 
I am not questioning the evil murderous dictator assessment. It will likely require his death to end the war. If he meets his end by the hands of those in Russia or by the hands of those from the country he invaded that is one thing. If you were suggesting another nation take out the head of Russia, that is another. If you were suggesting the US do it, then it is akin to setting aside your moral compass and, like torturing people (which we did), it would be wrong and counter productive. Perhaps I read something into your post that was not there.
I wasn't volunteering to do it myself. I'm a terrible shot. But this war doesn't end until someone kills Putin. Whether it is his own people or his own generals or a Ukrainian missile made by the US, the Brits, French or Israel. And if the next Czar is just as bad then the same.
 
What has torture to do with getting rid of an evil murderous dictator? Putin is the one murdering civilians for no reason other than breaking that nation's will to resist his invasion. This will not be over until Putin is dead.

Russia has warhawks in the government who believe Russia is losing because they haven't been aggressive enough. If one of them replaces Putin, we could end up with worse than Putin. Putin is bad, but history has had dictators worse than him.

The war will end when Russia is unable to continue fighting. They are burning through more of their resources every day.

I not hearing much about the use of the Switchblades in Ukraine. Initially they seemed as if they could be a definite gamechanger of sorts on the battlefield.
I see numerous youtube vids of successful use of DJI Mavics and consumer drones dropping grenades on Russian heads, but nothing much about Switchblades. Anyone see anything different?

I've heard they've been used, but Ukraine isn't talking about them. Ukraine is selectively releasing information. The narrative that the army is a bunch of McGyvers fashioning weapons out of whatever they can get their hands on has some truth to it, but it's also convenient for that to be the face of their army right now. It passes on the message to their allies that they could do much more with more western weapons and it helps create an air of superiority of the Ukrainian army. They are beating the Russians with commercial drones equipped with modifications that take out tanks.

Most of what Russia claims as successes is BS. They are already claiming to have taken out the Leopards sent to Ukraine with pictures from Turkish Leopards taken out in Syria and they claim more than 100% of the HIMARS sent to Ukraine have been destroyed.

What Ukraine tells us tends to be true for the most part, but they are selective in what they tell the world. The Ukrainians are up to a lot of things they don't advertise to the world.
 
Russia has warhawks in the government who believe Russia is losing because they haven't been aggressive enough. If one of them replaces Putin, we could end up with worse than Putin. Putin is bad, but history has had dictators worse than him.

The war will end when Russia is unable to continue fighting. They are burning through more of their resources every day.
Totally agree on this last part. It is very likely when Ukraine’s new armored vehicles get into action there will be a big reversal on the front.

Russia right now is just throwing bodies and last centuries left over munitions at Ukraine.




But we’re going to have to deal with Putin’s replacement soon enough. Seems unlikely he’s going to live another 5 years and it’s pretty unlikely he will be replaced by anything other than another despot. The only real hope is Russia‘s military is so completely thrashed that Russia can no longer influence events outside their own border.