Russia/Ukraine conflict

[petit_bateau]

Well done Spain .... There are in Santander ready to depart 6 Tanks Leopard 2A4 and 20 personnel transport vehicle TOA M113. There are working in another 4 Leopards 2A4 to be sent very soon

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648609895707553794

Well done Slovenia and USA

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648643092197588992

[UPDATE] .... and Kyiv receives Patriot missile systems from US and Germany, (soon also Dutch), now in use

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648627423636799488

Russia-Ukraine war: Kyiv receives Patriot missile systems from US and Germany – as it happened

Ukraine defence minister said he had first lobbied for the Patriots in August 2021, before the invasion

www.theguardian.com

{UPDATE] BZ to Germany

Further news on air defences being delivered to Ukraine as German officials have reportedly confirmed it has sent another Iris-T air defence systems to the country.

Ukraine receives second German-made Iris-T air defense system

Ukraine has received the second of the four Iris-T air defense systems pledged by Germany. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[BitJam]

How the war can destabilize Russia

This builds on his previous video: Russia is running out of soldiers and also on the one before that saying Russia's winter offensive was a mistake.

The US ran into a similar problem during the Vietnam War. Drafting a lot of people to serve in an unpopular war led to politicization and often radicalization. Of course, the US was less repressive than Russia is now so while the transition was not easy nor free from violence, it was comparatively easier and comparatively less prone to violence.

 

[wdolson]

How the war can destabilize Russia

This builds on his previous video: Russia is running out of soldiers and also on the one before that saying Russia's winter offensive was a mistake.

The US ran into a similar problem during the Vietnam War. Drafting a lot of people to serve in an unpopular war led to politicization and often radicalization. Of course, the US was less repressive than Russia is now so while the transition was not easy nor free from violence, it was comparatively easier and comparatively less prone to violence.

His thinking is similar to mine.

When the US loses a war, it generally is ready to move on and mostly forget it. The biggest conflict about the war in Vietnam was about the war itself. When the war was over, there were not many burning issues for people to protest, so the movement ended and the country settled down.

The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan were unpopular, but the risk that anyone who didn't want to go to war would have to was virtually nil because the military is completely voluntary.

I suspect Putin thought the US would be unstable after pulling out of Afghanistan. He saw how destabilizing the Soviet pullout from Afghanistan was in the USSR, the probably assumed it would be the same for the US. The pullout was a big news story and controversy at the time, but when it was done, the US public mostly forgot about it.

 

[heltok]

Crazy action from about 0:40 and forward:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648699457100210182

 

[BitJam]

IT’S OFFICIAL. UKRAINIAN COUNTEROFFENSIVE BEGAN

... today Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense finally confirmed that the counter-offensive has started. [...] She said it is a mistake to wait for a specific date because the counter-offensive is a long process and only the culmination happens quickly.​

​

This pro-Ukrainian channel is usually reliable. On the battlefield he's reporting deeper probing attacks by Ukraine and some Russian retreats. He says [FWIW] Russian analysts predict Ukraine will make at least two huge attacks during the last week of April to test new tactics and then launch a full scale offensive in the first half of May.

A similar report from Newsweek:

Ukraine's "complex" counteroffensive is already underway: Defense minister

Both Russia and Ukraine have anticipated combat to become more intense in the aftermath of the winter and are preparing as such.

www.newsweek.com

Deputy Defense Minister Hanna Maliar reportedly said Wednesday on national Ukrainian television that the planned counteroffensive "involves a vast and complex set of actions and measures carried out by the Armed Forces, which includes preparing people for a range of defensive and offensive actions."​

​

She added that planning is "already underway" and involved various strategies related to the preparation of equipment and reserves, training and tactical formation "chosen in such a way that the enemy cannot react,"​

​

It could be argued that this is not yet the actual counter-offensive. But there is little doubt that things are heating up and something has started.

 

[wdolson]

Crazy action from about 0:40 and forward:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648699457100210182

Infantry combat up close and personal.

The guy filming appeared to be the squad commander. Probably a sergeant. He didn't appear to be aiming much, it looked like he was mostly shooting from the hip.

 

[madodel]

Russian Troops Couldn’t Believe Putin’s Alleged ‘Bullsh*t’ Gift To Them On Easter

Putin's troops were "thrilled" to get an Easter icon of dear leader.

Also the article points out that things aren't going so well recruiting new cannon fodder, so Russia is now recruiting on Pornhub.

Edit: Actually according to the article they link to it is the Wagner group advertising on Pornhub. At least according to a Tweet from Pravda Ukraine. Can any Russian Pornhub regulars confirm this?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1636000681709432834

 

[Tiger]

Edit: Actually according to the article they link to it is the Wagner group advertising on Pornhub.

Not a bad strategy to recruit someone who watches ads on pornhub

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Edit: Actually according to the article they link to it is the Wagner group advertising on Pornhub. At least according to a Tweet from Pravda Ukraine. Can any Russian Pornhub regulars confirm this?

Nice try

 

[Tiger]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648575410014388225

 

[petit_bateau]

Not great news

On 24 March 2023, ten Su-35Ss, the Russian Air Force’s most advanced fighter, conducted a bombing raid against several border settlements in Sumy province. The attack was not just notable for the number of aircraft involved. It was also the first reported mass use of glide bombs in the war and confirmed two earlier reports that this bomb type had made its debut in the conflict. Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Colonel Yuriy Ignat described the development as ‘an extremely big threat’.

‘An extremely big threat’: Russian glide bombs make their debut in the war

In March 2023 the Russian Air Force made its first recorded use of glide bombs to attack Ukraine. What's the significance?

wavellroom.com

 

[BitJam]

Ukraine joins the EU civil protection system

An agreement on Ukraine's accession to the European Union Civil Protection Mechanism was signed at the International Summit of Cities and Regions. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

From the official press release:

The EU Civil Protection Mechanism has channelled emergency assistance to Ukraine from across Europe since the onset of Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine in February 2022. In its largest and longest running operation, more than 88,000 tonnes of life-saving equipment, food, and medicines, have been sent to Ukraine via the Mechanism. Most recently, more than 1,000 power generators fully financed by the EU were mobilised to Ukraine from the strategic rescEU energy reserves. Now, by being a full member, Ukraine will also be able to dispatch aid via the Mechanism at a time another country finds itself in a crisis. ​

 

[Alset Srotom]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1648575410014388225

You guys believe literally anything that aligns with the narrative you wish to push.

Propagandists...

 

[JRP3]

The irony...

 

[madodel]

The irony...

More like projection. What's not to like about someone who always posts against Tesla and always for Putin?

 

[wdolson]

That sound you hear is the sound of Russia's tank industry grinding to a halt:
What’s Perfectly Round, Made Of Metal, And Keeping Russia From Replacing the 2,000 Tanks It’s Lost In Ukraine?

Russia has a serious shortage of quality ball bearings. China doesn't make them.

 

[replicant]

That sound you hear is the sound of Russia's tank industry grinding to a halt:
What’s Perfectly Round, Made Of Metal, And Keeping Russia From Replacing the 2,000 Tanks It’s Lost In Ukraine?

Russia has a serious shortage of quality ball bearings. China doesn't make them.

Is China really incapable of producing good quality ball bearings? If so, that's a great oppportunity for them to start. I doubt it would take long to reach volume and China would probably not hold back supply from Russia (dual use or not).

 

[SPadival]

@ the call sign & the name of the unit (SS)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1649310750127554561

 

[nativewolf]

@wdolson the factually inaccurate statement along the lines of “ China does not make ball bearings suitable for the train or heavy equipment industry” is something you have stated before. It is NOT true .

What is much more likely is that it will take China a while to ramp up bearings for Russia but you can be sure they are doing so. Quality may suffer but with the way they drive tanks and don’t train this hardly seems to be critical.

 

[nativewolf]

Is China really incapable of producing good quality ball bearings? If so, that's a great oppportunity for them to start. I doubt it would take long to reach volume and China would probably not hold back supply from Russia (dual use or not).

China, Malaysia, and others make ball bearings. Western companies licensed years ago, quality on the bearings is not there as balls are inferior in some sizes. You will find many Chinese ball bearings in your vehicle or other places if you look.

Best ball bearings are still European or American and it is a big business.