Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Tactical cukes:
Alas (as so often happens in wartime), it turns out this story isn't true:
Yup, set the record straight. It was actually a jar of pickled tomatos. 
Cherries!
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Russia/Ukraine conflict
- Thread starter amolina
- Start date
Alas (as so often happens in wartime), it turns out this story isn't true:
Cherries!
British Intelligence has released a report. The 40 mile convoy to nowhere hasn't moved
UK claims Russian convoy near Kyiv ‘suffering continued losses’
The Russians also claim they have withdrawn the conscripts they had in country. Why do I not believe them?
UK claims Russian convoy near Kyiv ‘suffering continued losses’
The Russians also claim they have withdrawn the conscripts they had in country. Why do I not believe them?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Abandoned Russian AFVs: (not stuck in the mud, not burned out or disabled)
Ukrainian soldiers find field full of abandoned Russian tanks after invaders 'fled their post' | (39 min ago)
Ukrainian soldiers find field full of abandoned Russian tanks after invaders 'fled their post' | (39 min ago)
petit_bateau
Active Member
So far the general line is that the West is supplying weapons of a defensive nature, but not weapons that can be construed as being offensive in nature.
So the short range anti-aircraft MANPADS (Stinger, Starstreak, Igla, etc) and the anti-tank ATGMs (LAWS, Javelin, etc); specialist infantry weapons; communications (radios & satcom); surveillance devices (night vision, mortar/artillery location systems, etc) ; body armour, field medical kit; field rations; etc. I think there are about one or two dozen widebodies landing up by the Polish border every day, so a lot of stuff going in. (Hungary is not allowing its border to be used for transfer, I'm afraid Victor Orban was long ago pwned by Putin, but at least he is not blocking NATO/EU action right now).
But not things that either require extensive training and/or which could be (or be characterised as being) offensive in nature. And in this instance offensive is a characteristic that is related to the range of the system as well as its purpose. So even if the politcal desire to send medium/long range anti-aircraft SAM systems was there (and it is not) then it simply would not be possible because of the training needs, ditto (at present) for the now retired UK Rapier which is a shorter range system (and a good candidate for a post-conflict transfer).
The line over the fighter (Mig-29 Fulcrum) and bomber (Su-25 Frogfoot) aircraft from variously Poland and Bulgaria is genuinely complicated with all sorts of cross-currents in play. The Russians obviously don't want them transferred, and if they are to be transferred will present this as being an offensive act by NATO. The Ukrainians do want them transferred (if only for their own use) and likely also are trying to entrap NATO into either being forced into setting up an (anti-Russian) no-fly zone, or even deeper involvement. And then there are other motives going on including domestic politics in Poland and the UK where pro-Putin-pwned right-wing administrations are trying to write cheques that the US will have to support.
I don't know if the ex-German / ex-Baltics artillery has made it into the hands of the Ukraine. It takes time to move stuff like that, but it ought to be reaching the Polish border about now. Whether the Ukraine has the absorptive capacity for that I do not know. Prior to the actual invasion the Germans were witholding the transfer licence, but after the invasion the Germans lifted their transfer restriction.
What is not being discussed is the extent to which intel is being supplied, that is a dog that is not barking. And of course that can be supplied both from NATO pooled assets/systems and also from national/non-NATO assets/systems. One has to be real careful using NATO systems as via some of their fellow travellers the Russians will have insight into their use, if not the details.
And lastly the Turkish are clearly supplying the Bayraktar TB2 drones and highly likely also a fairly steady stream of munitions and replacement airframes. That is an odd one as it is both offensive and defensive in nature.
====
Regarding the tactical situation this is a sensible update from Janes imho. The battle for Kiev is starting. The Ukrainians need to prevent those Russian columns from linking up.
Ukraine conflict: Russian forces close in on Kyiv
Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian troops on Kyiv's northwest outskirts, preventing them from closing in on the capital city. However, Russian troops east of the...
www.janes.com
UK MOD view
Ukraine General Staff Update
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That is the most insightful thing I've seen on
Well they bought the drones a few years ago. How many munitions I don't know but obviously they'd have been stockpiling like mad prior to the invasion.So far the general line is that the West is supplying weapons of a defensive nature, but not weapons that can be construed as being offensive in nature.
So the short range anti-aircraft MANPADS (Stinger, Starstreak, Igla, etc) and the anti-tank ATGMs (LAWS, Javelin, etc); specialist infantry weapons; communications (radios & satcom); surveillance devices (night vision, mortar/artillery location systems, etc) ; body armour, field medical kit; field rations; etc. I think there are about one or two dozen widebodies landing up by the Polish border every day, so a lot of stuff going in. (Hungary is not allowing its border to be used for transfer, I'm afraid Victor Orban was long ago pwned by Putin, but at least he is not blocking NATO/EU action right now).
But not things that either require extensive training and/or which could be (or be characterised as being) offensive in nature. And in this instance offensive is a characteristic that is related to the range of the system as well as its purpose. So even if the politcal desire to send medium/long range anti-aircraft SAM systems was there (and it is not) then it simply would not be possible because of the training needs, ditto (at present) for the now retired UK Rapier which is a shorter range system (and a good candidate for a post-conflict transfer).
The line over the fighter (Mig-29 Fulcrum) and bomber (Su-25 Frogfoot) aircraft from variously Poland and Bulgaria is genuinely complicated with all sorts of cross-currents in play. The Russians obviously don't want them transferred, and if they are to be transferred will present this as being an offensive act by NATO. The Ukrainians do want them transferred (if only for their own use) and likely also are trying to entrap NATO into either being forced into setting up an (anti-Russian) no-fly zone, or even deeper involvement. And then there are other motives going on including domestic politics in Poland and the UK where pro-Putin-pwned right-wing administrations are trying to write cheques that the US will have to support.
I don't know if the ex-German / ex-Baltics artillery has made it into the hands of the Ukraine. It takes time to move stuff like that, but it ought to be reaching the Polish border about now. Whether the Ukraine has the absorptive capacity for that I do not know. Prior to the actual invasion the Germans were witholding the transfer licence, but after the invasion the Germans lifted their transfer restriction.
What is not being discussed is the extent to which intel is being supplied, that is a dog that is not barking. And of course that can be supplied both from NATO pooled assets/systems and also from national/non-NATO assets/systems. One has to be real careful using NATO systems as via some of their fellow travellers the Russians will have insight into their use, if not the details.
And lastly the Turkish are clearly supplying the Bayraktar TB2 drones and highly likely also a fairly steady stream of munitions and replacement airframes. That is an odd one as it is both offensive and defensive in nature.
====
Regarding the tactical situation this is a sensible update from Janes imho. The battle for Kiev is starting. The Ukrainians need to prevent those Russian columns from linking up.
Ukraine conflict: Russian forces close in on Kyiv
Ukrainian forces continue to hold Russian troops on Kyiv's northwest outskirts, preventing them from closing in on the capital city. However, Russian troops east of the...www.janes.com
UK MOD view
Ukraine General Staff Update
I agree except for payment. For Russian grains, oil, military and other products all, China will probably use barter. There trade is ideally suited to that, plus it allows for bypassing current entirely. Slightly less easily India, Pakistan and other Russian customer can do the same. Since Russia has a net deficit in numerous products offered by these countries that is simplified.
Further, with decent, if overloaded rail connections form China with Russia need for ocean freight and consequent political risk does not exist. The largest impediment is that the existing system is already overloaded with Chinese exports to Russia. For India it is more complicated although there is already well-established Russia-India rail cooperation:
Russia launches railway sector project under Make in India initiative
STM staff-members will also guide and supervise the start-up and adjustment works after the equipment is manufactured. SKD is being implemented within the framework of the governmental program “Make in India”, which assumes a degree of localization of at least 51%, according to a statement by STM.
One Belt One Road: International North South Transportation Corridor for better Indo-Russian connectivity inches towards reality
INSTC is one of corridors that New Delhi is working on as part of connectivity initiatives parallel to China's One Belt One Road strategy.
The International North-South Transport Corridor: What Is The Potential For Bangladesh? - Silk Road Briefing
By MD Pathik Hasan The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a 7,200km long multi-mode transport project for moving freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Oman, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, and Ukraine. It is a...
www.silkroadbriefing.com
As the linked articles clearly show China's Silk Road initiatives coincide neatly with Russia's urgent needs. Most of the Silk Road components have been being financed by China, some have been treated as direct investment from the wealthier countries in the system.
Looking at the situation today, we can easily see there are many alternative methods to avoid Western sanctions, regardless of their source or motivation.
Fo some bizzarre and incomprehensible reasons most of the West has simply ignored the Silk Road, which has already transformed many of the freight and trade patterns of the world. China is obviously the singular dominant force, but the vast Russian rail network cannot be understated,
with the singular caveat that much of the present high speed rail stock was supplied by Siemens so the non-domestically built part and parts are likely to be impeded-NOT. This aspect has had almost zero notice. The Wall Street Journal did conveniently explain that Siemens actually is not stopping Russian business, just 'new business', while current projects and maintenance continue, thus Business as Usual.
As usual 'business' finds ways.
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Not happening. Biden does not want to aggravate Putin. A trifle odd, that.
It has been clear that the USA and UK spy agencies have some resources that supplied the plans months in advance. It was sufficient time to allow Ukraine to develop a defense in depth and protect and conserve resources. With the number of generals and high ranking field officers getting killed I'd say that the intelligence services are supplying information rapidly, it is not random luck. Commanders from Colonels to Generals are being killed. 1 US general was lost to attack by an insider turned suicide bomber in Afghanistan, 1 in Vietnam when a helicopter was shot down. That's it from 1970 til now.
Russia does not take the same care with commanders. They have lost 3 so far in the Ukraine from what I can see, 4-12k troops captured/killed?
The USA pulled off both Iraq invasions and the occupation of Afghanistan for a decade and lost 1 general and that was a suicide bomber. The explanations are that intelligence has really done a job (NSA does something other than watch me watch..videos?) or that the generals are desperate and had moved command posts far too close to actual fighting.
In one of the strikes that killed the general the entire staff was killed along with him which strongly suggest a drone attack. That type of staff will be hard to replace.
Russia does not take the same care with commanders. They have lost 3 so far in the Ukraine from what I can see, 4-12k troops captured/killed?
The USA pulled off both Iraq invasions and the occupation of Afghanistan for a decade and lost 1 general and that was a suicide bomber. The explanations are that intelligence has really done a job (NSA does something other than watch me watch..videos?) or that the generals are desperate and had moved command posts far too close to actual fighting.
In one of the strikes that killed the general the entire staff was killed along with him which strongly suggest a drone attack. That type of staff will be hard to replace.
petit_bateau
Active Member
They bought a load more a few weeks ago. As the Russian tanks were rolling across the border the Turkish A400Ms were on the ground unloading in Ukraine. I have seen reports that more sets have been delivered since but they were somewhat inconclusive. Everyone is being somewhat shy when it comes to discussing this.
edit: Janes noted it as well
Ukraine conflict: Turkey airlifts additional TB2 UCAVs to Ukraine
Turkey has airlifted additional Baykar Bayraktar TB2 unmanned combat aerial vehicles (UCAVs) to Ukraine.
www.janes.com
It is not tactically useful and Ukraine has been a bit aggressive when given the chance. Russia's airforce is hardly making an impact. They have no standoff weapons so they are forced to come quite close to ground level to do any bombing or straffing. That exposes them to the stingers and other anit-aircraft weapons of which we have delivered (with the UK and others) nearly 10000. Helicopters are being shot down in droves and they can't protect them. Russia can't move transports. Planes have an offensive capability, maybe it is viewed as a bit tempting and the Ukrianes as far too innovative?
More importantly the planes are subject to the exact same weapons systems that are being used by the Ukraines. Not likely that the planes would survive long.
The more cynical thought is that the USA admin is more than happy to bleed Russia dry, let the hot fighting continue through April. Why change the narrative and give Russia something to complain about.
I think the whole silk road is much to do about nothing. China is the manufacturing engine of the world today so of course materials are flowing to China. China makes a lot of stuff so it flows back. The USA just never described it as a "silk road", neither did England. Nor did Japan. The larger issue for China is can they move the country forward through the generational issues and stabilize the economy to reflect realities. They have a very short time to do so and rather than worrying about a "silk road" they should be worrying about internal matters. The initiative will prove fleeting, poorly thought out, and potentially pull them into military conflicts in developing nations. Especially as the US pulls out of the mid east in 10 years.I agree except for payment. For Russian grains, oil, military and other products all, China will probably use barter. There trade is ideally suited to that, plus it allows for bypassing current entirely. Slightly less easily India, Pakistan and other Russian customer can do the same. Since Russia has a net deficit in numerous products offered by these countries that is simplified.
Further, with decent, if overloaded rail connections form China with Russia need for ocean freight and consequent political risk does not exist. The largest impediment is that the existing system is already overloaded with Chinese exports to Russia. For India it is more complicated although there is already well-established Russia-India rail cooperation:
Russia launches railway sector project under Make in India initiative
STM staff-members will also guide and supervise the start-up and adjustment works after the equipment is manufactured. SKD is being implemented within the framework of the governmental program “Make in India”, which assumes a degree of localization of at least 51%, according to a statement by STM.economictimes.indiatimes.com
One Belt One Road: International North South Transportation Corridor for better Indo-Russian connectivity inches towards reality
INSTC is one of corridors that New Delhi is working on as part of connectivity initiatives parallel to China's One Belt One Road strategy.The International North-South Transport Corridor: What Is The Potential For Bangladesh? - Silk Road Briefing
By MD Pathik Hasan The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a 7,200km long multi-mode transport project for moving freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Oman, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, and Ukraine. It is a...www.silkroadbriefing.com
As the linked articles clearly show China's Silk Road initiatives coincide neatly with Russia's urgent needs. Most of the Silk Road components have been being financed by China, some have been treated as direct investment from the wealthier countries in the system.
Looking at the situation today, we can easily see there are many alternative methods to avoid Western sanctions, regardless of their source or motivation.
Fo some bizzarre and incomprehensible reasons most of the West has simply ignored the Silk Road, which has already transformed many of the freight and trade patterns of the world. China is obviously the singular dominant force, but the vast Russian rail network cannot be understated,
with the singular caveat that much of the present high speed rail stock was supplied by Siemens so the non-domestically built part and parts are likely to be impeded-NOT. This aspect has had almost zero notice. The Wall Street Journal did conveniently explain that Siemens actually is not stopping Russian business, just 'new business', while current projects and maintenance continue, thus Business as Usual.
As usual 'business' finds ways.
I saw that but it was unclear to me if it was in fact more drones or more weapons. Either way I know a company in Turkey that will do well despite the Turkish govts incompetence in economic matters.
It helps to have some perspective. It is necessary, especially with China and Russia, to understand their histories (Most of us probably know that Russia owned Alaska and settled as far South as Northern California, before they sold Alaska to the US). The interplay between China and the Far East of Russia has operated for centuries, so a quippy cartoon or two do not begin to describe the reality:
The Russian Far East and China’s Northeast: A Decade in the Shadow of the Belt and Road Initiative - The Asan Forum
The Russian Far East and China’s Northeast: A Decade in the Shadow of the Belt and Road Initiative Gaye Christoffersen In 2013, the same year the Silk Road […]
theasanforum.org
China will not and has not 'colonized' Eastern Russia any more than China has 'colonized' Walmart.
China today is much more like the USA of the early 1950's that we care to admit. When any party, whoever they are, have gigantic influence over others, strange things happen. The winners carefully brush away their blunders.
Xi's China is in just about the same positions as was Eisenhower's USA. Just think about the parallels without, if possible, preconceptions. Then view the perspective as an Iranian, a Saudi, an Indian or Pakistani, a Vietnamese or a citizens of any South or Central American country. After that, it is a trifle more difficult to demonize China, or even Russia. Individual leaders are capable of destroying almost anything, more so today, perhaps.
I will not and cannot defend any given politician 'leading' in the current was, with the exception of Ukrainian leaders, and the current leaders of present day countries of the Baltic and those adjoining Ukraine. Some of them are deeply flawed, as are most. politicians and other people. All of them are standing for the right of countries to select their own destiny. Then there are many Russians who actively protest, not a traditional Russian response.
What we all need to understand is that not any of these things can withstand superficial generalizations.
Of that come really horrible consequences.
ZachF
Active Member
ZachF
Active Member
If it wasn’t for Edrogan, Turkey would probably have a $2 trillion GDP now.
The words change but the self-serving policies do not. Remember what you studied about colonies? How about trade agreements and treaties. The Silk Road initiatives combine all of those elements to a degree but direct Chinese financing of infrastructure is the key element.
Your historical suggestions are incorrect. You're talking about a term while the subject is content.
All of which may impact trade in a decade but that rail line has been overloaded for years. The pipelines have to get built, Russian oil would have to compete with Middle Eastern buyers shipping by very inexpensive super tankers and the pipelines lengths would be epic, about 4000 miles vs 2000 miles for the pipelines to Europe. The terrain is also far more challenging. By the time the oil could easily move EV's will be dramatically reducing need for oil. Furthermore the current global constraint in oil production is artificial. The slack capacity in oil production is significant, UAE, SA, Iran and the USA could offset all Russian export production. A pipeline of this magnitude would thus be enormously risky and could become stranded for any number of reasons but mostly simple economics. The bigger question is why would anyone go to such an extreme measure when the market supply is adequate? China has made a few terrible decisions in infrastructure but a pipeline like that would take the cake and I can't believe they'd fund it, not without taking a large chunk of Russia in return.I agree except for payment. For Russian grains, oil, military and other products all, China will probably use barter. There trade is ideally suited to that, plus it allows for bypassing current entirely. Slightly less easily India, Pakistan and other Russian customer can do the same. Since Russia has a net deficit in numerous products offered by these countries that is simplified.
Further, with decent, if overloaded rail connections form China with Russia need for ocean freight and consequent political risk does not exist. The largest impediment is that the existing system is already overloaded with Chinese exports to Russia. For India it is more complicated although there is already well-established Russia-India rail cooperation:
Russia launches railway sector project under Make in India initiative
STM staff-members will also guide and supervise the start-up and adjustment works after the equipment is manufactured. SKD is being implemented within the framework of the governmental program “Make in India”, which assumes a degree of localization of at least 51%, according to a statement by STM.One Belt One Road: International North South Transportation Corridor for better Indo-Russian connectivity inches towards reality
INSTC is one of corridors that New Delhi is working on as part of connectivity initiatives parallel to China's One Belt One Road strategy.The International North-South Transport Corridor: What Is The Potential For Bangladesh? - Silk Road Briefing
By MD Pathik Hasan The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) is a 7,200km long multi-mode transport project for moving freight between India, Iran, Afghanistan, Armenia, Russia, Belarus, Bulgaria, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Oman, Syria, Tajikistan, Turkey, and Ukraine. It is a...www.silkroadbriefing.com
As the linked articles clearly show China's Silk Road initiatives coincide neatly with Russia's urgent needs. Most of the Silk Road components have been being financed by China, some have been treated as direct investment from the wealthier countries in the system.
Looking at the situation today, we can easily see there are many alternative methods to avoid Western sanctions, regardless of their source or motivation.
Fo some bizzarre and incomprehensible reasons most of the West has simply ignored the Silk Road, which has already transformed many of the freight and trade patterns of the world. China is obviously the singular dominant force, but the vast Russian rail network cannot be understated,
with the singular caveat that much of the present high speed rail stock was supplied by Siemens so the non-domestically built part and parts are likely to be impeded-NOT. This aspect has had almost zero notice. The Wall Street Journal did conveniently explain that Siemens actually is not stopping Russian business, just 'new business', while current projects and maintenance continue, thus Business as Usual.
As usual 'business' finds ways.
