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Russia/Ukraine conflict

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All news and numbers coming out of Ukrain and Russia should be taken with liberal helping of salt.

Fog of war + propaganda = nothing is certain.

This is the tweet I was talking about:-

Ukrainian defenders liberated the village of Baklanova Muraviika from Russian-fascist forces. This victory protects the city of Chernihiv from being besieged and makes the enemy supply line (180km from the Belarus border to the outskirts of Kyiv) more vulnerable.

His source is the Ukrainian MOD, who does seem very pleased about this development.

Is this just spin from the MOD to keep morale up?

There is also some suggestion that the Russians are doing a tactical retreat from the area around Chernihiv, perhaps redoubling their efforts to take Summy.

As this is highly specific in terms of time and place, it is easier to verify, what it means is harder to assess.
 
Russia withdraws after an agreement
This is the best outcome, sadly both sides seem unwilling to give ground in negotiations.

I also think the US could play a more constructive role.

The US should contact China and suggest that they work together to help progress a settlement.

The US has played the military side perfectly, but I'm not that happy with diplomacy, it is time to start lowering the temperature.
 
This is the tweet I was talking about:-
My comment is not about any particular post. It was a general reminder.

It is easy to get caught up in the rhetoric .... I've also retweeted stuff that was later found to be just propaganda. The worst was possibly during the Syrian war.

I don't think we have enough actual information to figure out which of the possible outcomes is more likely at this point, from an investment perspective.
 
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This is the best outcome, sadly both sides seem unwilling to give ground in negotiations.

I also think the US could play a more constructive role.

The US should contact China and suggest that they work together to help progress a settlement.

The US has played the military side perfectly, but I'm not that happy with diplomacy, it is time to start lowering the temperature.
France and Germany tried talking with China already, and it doesn't look like China has any interest. China as a condition may also request things unrelated to the current conflict (just like Saudi and UAE did on releasing more oil).

They seem to support Russia more (certainly that is what their domestic propaganda is pushing), and the US being focused on this conflict as it drags on suits them more strategically than making it end quickly.
 
I agree @EVNow be very cautious putting too much faith in any data presented right now. It's a terrible situation, Ukrainians are tough as nails. The president has balls larger than Macy's Parade float, Putin is sending kids to be slaughtered, Putin is lying to his people, China is supporting Putin and spreading his obvious lies, invasion and murder goes badly for Russia, Russia is committing war crimes. Beyond these statements it is difficult to make assurances on any facts. How many planes shot down? Who really knows? How many captured? Who knows, how many killed? Really really hard to say at all. How many wounded? Who in the world thinks they know the answer to that? Who pulled that wounded number out of the hat? Did they walk around the Russian field hospitals? I don't believe the Russian high command knows how many russian soldiers are killed or wounded or captured, much less the Ukraine MOD.
 
Not sure about the opsec and tactical benefit of spamming tiktok, instagram, twitter etc with pictures of your soldiers in action. Same with their prime minister posting pictures of himself at the office with buildings visible in the background. I assume Russian military is dataming every picture posted from the war to track troop movements and valuable targets…

I guess it’s a tradeoff: boost morale and get support from other nations vs removing some of the fog of war for the enemy to see behind your lines.
 
France and Germany tried talking with China already, and it doesn't look like China has any interest. China as a condition may also request things unrelated to the current conflict (just like Saudi and UAE did on releasing more oil).

They seem to support Russia more (certainly that is what their domestic propaganda is pushing), and the US being focused on this conflict as it drags on suits them more strategically than making it end quickly.
I think China has played this badly from the get go first off they are part of the reason for the bad timing (olympics) and secondly they misjudged on the reaction of the West. For China this provides a useful laboratory to study western response. However, it is also healing lots of wounds and fissures. OTOH it could mean Biden in power 4 more years and that is preferable to Trump so I could see them using Russia to damage Trump while draining away resources from Russia and making Russia ever more dependent on China. Much like the Chinese Panda becoming amorous at the sight of the trapped russian bear sweet rump which...apologies to my friend @jbcarioca I continue to find just hilarious and oh so likely true.
 
Not sure about the opsec and tactical benefit of spamming tiktok, instagram, twitter etc with pictures of your soldiers in action. Same with their prime minister posting pictures of himself at the office with buildings visible in the background. I assume Russian military is dataming every picture posted from the war to track troop movements and valuable targets…

I guess it’s a tradeoff: boost morale and get support from other nations vs removing some of the fog of war for the enemy to see behind your lines.
It is mainly about keeping domestic morale up, posts can have a time delay, and locals are told to not post anything that would reveal the location of their forces. Many forest locations in Ukraine look pretty much the same.,

Zelensky moves around multiple locations, photos in the office are to boost morale.

Ukraine has to fight with any tool they can get their hands on, for example they recently invented a drone to drop Molotov Cocktails.

I guess why the peace talks are not progressing is both sides still think they can win. Or Ukraine thinks they can drag it on long enough to get a better deal.
 
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Nightly News tonight made it sound like Kiev will fall in the next two weeks. Main stream news doesn't make it sound like Russia is doing as badly as we think here....
We are following a lot of Ukraine Twitter sites, which are no doubt PR designed to build overseas support for Ukraine and keep local morale up.

The Ukrainians seem to have a lot of faith in their army, seem well prepared and determined to fight..

Russia has an advantage in air power and artillery which has resulted in a lot of buildings in cities being destroyed.
So far only one major city has fallen.

The Russians are bringing in more resources, and seem to be getting better organised, so Ukraine is far from out of the woods.

If a country like the US with open media reporting had suffered the losses Russia has apparently suffered, the government would be under a lot of pressure.
But the Russian public is getting the "Pink Unicorn Everything is Fine" version of the news.

Mainstream media thought Kyiv would fall in 3 days, so did the Russians.

What the mainstream media doesn't know and we don't know is how many troops Ukraine has.
While the Russian army is large Ukraine may have just as many troops and for close quarter fighting the majority of the Ukraine troops might be better trained, better prepared and slightly better equipped.

Ukraine can't easy stop Russia surrounding cities and bombarding them, conquering them is a more difficult task.
 
I guess it’s a tradeoff: boost morale and get support from other nations vs removing some of the fog of war for the enemy to see behind your lines.
Thats easy. If the western world doesn't support Ukraine, they have no chance of surviving. Ukraine needs Western support and US media is anti-Putin - so they amplify him.

World also loves underdogs and doesn't like bullies. Something US should remember ....
 
The words change but the self-serving policies do not. Remember what you studied about colonies? How about trade agreements and treaties. The Silk Road initiatives combine all of those elements to a degree but direct Chinese financing of infrastructure is the key element.

Your historical suggestions are incorrect. You're talking about a term while the subject is content.

The Chinese Belt and Road initiative is the core of their foreign policy. Mostly aimed at developing countries, they build infrastructure for them and fund it through loans the country ultimately can't pay back, at which point they take the asset under Chinese control.
Belt and Road Initiative - Wikipedia

When the US become the dominant world power it's approach to "empire" was different from any empire before. The US didn't physically take over any territory like the British did when they ruled the world. Instead the US helped enforce strict borders from the late 1940s with few exceptions and allowing for countries to break up into smaller countries. The US dominated the world economy and ran things that way.

China watched what the US did and adopted American ways into their plans for world domination. The Belt and Road is their primary way of doing it. China does not want to run the Russian government, they just want to own all the assets. They are patient and it's OK if it takes them 50 years.

This was posted today:
Opinion | How Vladimir Putin Lost Interest in the Present

It may be behind their paywall.

And this yesterday:
The Would-Be Czar's Dark Prophet | History News Network

They talk about how Putin has isolated himself to such a degree he only talks to two people now. One a modern day Rasputin and the other a Physicist obsessed with the past. Putin is stuck in a world of Russian Orthodox mysticism and obsessing about past grievances.

There has also been talk in the last 24 hours about how the Russians are planning to use chemical weapons. The Russian troll farms have been quiet in the initial phase of this war, but they are cranked up now spouting BS about how the Biden family owns 23,000 miles of tunnels under Ukraine where they are producing chemical and biological weapons. And predictably one wing of US media is running with it.

So we have someone with complete control over Russia with no official checks on his power who is only listening to a couple of loons and his propaganda network is cranking up the usual suspects in the west to trumpet BS on his behalf so he can justifying the extermination of the Ukrainian people with chemical weapons, nukes, or both.

I think this may be the closest the world has come to nuclear war since at least the Cuban Missile Crisis and quiet possibly ever. I can't see any way out of this that can be orchestrated outside of Russia. If someone took initiative and welded the door to Putin's bunker shut before turning off the power, the world could stand down. It might take a while to sort out the war and Russian internal politics might get very messy for a while, but at least we would see deescalation from nuclear war.

There is no active role (no fly zones, putting troops in Ukraine, or even transferring aircraft) that anybody outside of Ukraine could do that doesn't carry an extremely high risk of this spinning up to a full nuclear exchange fairly quickly. That's the facts. You can't impose a no fly zone on someone who can violate it catastrophically.

I feel the frustration, but picking it up from others and personally. One of the toughest things in the world is caring about a situation and watch it become a horrible mess and knowing there is absolutely nothing you can do to stop it. I've dealt with it many times on a personal scale when someone I care about does something stupid and self destructive and I've had to sit by in larger scale things that were going wrong and I was unable to do much about it. We've all lived through several of these the last few years.

I'm hoping somehow we will not see chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons used anything, especially not in this war. But I'm getting less optimistic. In a straight up conventional weapons fight, Ukraine will win and probably pretty decisively in the next few weeks. It may take longer to get the last Russian off Ukrainian territory, but conventionally the Russians will be unable to do much offensively in a few weeks.

If the Putin decides to make Ukrainians extinct, I don't think the world reaction will be very pleasant for Russia, but it won't help all those killed in Ukraine.
 
Senate Passes $1.5 Trillion Spending Bill That Includes Aid for Ukraine

Bipartisan Omnibus government funding bill that includes $13.6 billion emergency package of military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.

We need a WW2 style ramp-up of Solar Panels, Wind Turbines, EVs, heat pumps and storage. It's sad that we're turning to Venezuela and Saudi Arabia to get our next fix instead of kicking this pathetic addiction to hydrocarbons. Behind ~every crime against humanity in the last ~40 years was an oil funded autocrat.
 
If the Putin decides to make Ukrainians extinct, I don't think the world reaction will be very pleasant for Russia, but it won't help all those killed in Ukraine.
For now the optimistic sign is, Russia is doubling down on more conventional forces, pulling troops out of many areas to redeploy them in Ukraine.

If the war drags on a bit longer, things might cool down, the US and others should try to cool things down, what I mean by that is don't change the actions, but tone down the political rhetoric, and offer Russia a way out. e.g. Sanctions can quickly be reversed if Russia and Ukraine can reach a suitable deal.

There is enough petrol on the fire already.

China is interested in calming the situation down:-
Li Keqiang told reporters at an annual news conference that “we support and encourage all efforts that are conducive to a peaceful settlement of the crisis”.

“The pressing task now is to prevent tension from escalating or even getting out of control,” Li said.

The US should demonstrate that it can do diplomacy, by talking to China.
 
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